Posted on | October 29, 2012 | 23 Comments
Looks like Hurricane Sandy has already caused major damage to my plans for the next couple of days, as both Mitt Romney and President Obama are canceling campaign events because of Hurricane Sandy’s impact on the East Coast. By the way, this storm is so large we’re getting effects as far inland as Ohio.
UPDATE: I’ll be uploading photos from last night’s rally here, but meanwhile here’s the report:
Paul Ryan stood onstage Sunday evening and told a fired-up crowd of nearly 5,000 supporters, “As Ohio goes, so goes America.”
Few would argue with the Republican vice presidential candidate. Of the 11 states rated as “toss ups” by Real Clear Politics, none is more fiercely contested than the Buckeye State, whose 18 Electoral College votes appear destined to decide this election. And the latest poll, commissioned by a consortium of Ohio’s eight largest newspapers, shows the state a dead heat, with 49 percent each for GOP challenger Mitt Romney and President Obama. Perhaps more important, the poll conducted Oct. 18-23 by University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research, showed Romney has gained three points — and Obama has lost two points — since September, when Obama led 51-46 in Ohio.
This net five-point shift in the Ohio newspaper poll substantially mirrors a general trend, as Romney has improved his standing in the RCP average for the state by a net 3.5 points since Sept. 30. And while Obama still leads most Ohio polls (by an average 2.1 points), “The trendline is going in our direction,” senior Romney campaign adviser Kevin Madden said Sunday night during the rally at the Marion County Fairgrounds Coliseum. . . .
UPDATE II: Of course, when a crisis hits, nobody answers their phones, so I’m still scrambling to get specific details from Romney’s campaign, which has yet to issue an “Updated Media Advisory” on their schedule. Probably everybody’s on conference calls right now. Meanwhile, the lobby of this hotel is full of guys who look a lot like Secret Service agents and there’s an SUV in the parking lot with Virginia tags and a Romney/Ryan bumper sticker — probably a campaign staffer. Here’s the latest poll talk from Fred Barnes at The Weekly Standard:
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. . . .
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas. . . .
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
UPDATE III: Went out to the nearest convenience store and grabbed a copy of the local newspaper, the Marion Star which — historians will note — was once published by a guy named Warren G. Harding. The front page of the paper today is dominated by two stories covering Sunday’s rally:
This is from the second story:
MARION – Energized and pumped up was how the crowd left Veterans Memorial Coliseum Sunday night after attending the “Victory In Ohio” rally for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
There are nine more days until there will be a change, Romney emphasized, encouraging people to get out and vote early or on Nov. 6 for him and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.
Sara Lawhon and her daughter, Erin, came over from Mount Vernon.
“I’m excited,” Sara said. “It’s fun to be in the same room with people cheering for the same thing and feeling the same way you do.”
Erin, 14, still has four more years before she will be able to vote, but she shared her mother’s excitement.
“I thought he was honest and truthful,” she said. “He went by the heart because he believes in it.”
Mount Vernon is in adjacent Knox County. Just got this via e-mail from a friend on the Romney campaign staff: “Daveport is on today, but all other events today and tomorrow are cancelled. Will update with details when we have them.”
UPDATE IV: Hot Air headline on story from Katie Pavlich at Townhall:
UPDATE V: Thanks to Finrod in the comments for the news that Rasmussen’s latest Ohio poll has Romney 50, Obama 48.
Of course, Nate Silver has raised Obama’s re-election chances to 74.6%, because . . . Objectivity!
- Oct. 28: FROM OHIO: ROMNEY GAINS IN STATE POLL, NOW TIED WITH OBAMA
- Oct. 27: STORM CANCELS ROMNEY VIRGINIA EVENTS; OHIO, HERE WE COME UPDATE: BOOM! Mitt Romney Endorsed by Des Moines Register