The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

FOUR MORE DAYS: Kid Rock Tonight in the Only County That Matters

Posted on | November 2, 2012 | 12 Comments

The National Affairs Desk, Blue Ash, Ohio, Nov. 2, 2012

Six days since Ali Akbar and I arrived in Ohio, four days until Election Day, and we are right now at the epicenter of the political universe:

Butler County may prove to be the key to the entire 2012 election, Ground Zero of the battle for the White House and essential to Mitt Romney’s hopes for victory. That explains why, when the Romney campaign scheduled Friday’s massive “Victory Rally” to kick off a four-day final pre-Election Day tour, they chose Butler County as the site.
An all-star cast of Republicans — including Rudy Giuliani, House Speaker John Boehner, Condoleezza Rice and Marco Rubio — will join Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan at an event in West Chester featuring Kid Rock as musical entertainment. The rally is expected to draw greater attendance than the Republican National Convention — some have dubbed it “RNC II” — and such a crowd is expected that the doors will open four hours ahead of the 7:30 p.m. start of the rally.
To understand why this suburb of Cincinnati is so essential to Republican success, it is necessary to look at the past two elections. In 2004, when George W. Bush carried Ohio by more than 100,000 votes, approximately half his margin of victory came from Butler County, where he defeated Democrat John Kerry by about 53,000 votes. In 2008, however, when Barack Obama won Ohio by a margin of 250,000 votes, the GOP margin for John McCain in Butler County was less than 40,000 votes — roughly a 4,500-vote decline for the Republicans and nearly a 10,000-vote increase for Democrats.
With this year’s fight for Ohio’s crucial 18 Electoral College votes expected to be extremely close, the difference of a few thousand extra votes for Romney in Butler County might be the difference between victory and defeat. On Election Night, then, analysts will be watching returns from this county very closely. If early returns show Romney near 65 percent here, he’ll likely be the next President of the United States. If not …

Read the whole thing at The American Spectator, and keep in mind something I said last night on Twitter:

All the polls in the world are moot now, because this election is within a range where the winner will be the team with superior turnout. The three most important factors now are:

  1. Turnout;
  2. Turnout; and
  3. Turnout.

If Romney can’t get the numbers he needs in Butler County, Romney won’t win Ohio, and if Romney doesn’t win Ohio, it’s another four years for Obama. Period. It is therefore no exaggeration at all to call this the make-or-break point for the entire election. So now . . .


Yeah, OK, let’s talk polls, but anybody can talk polls, and I feel slightly guilty talking polls when the tip-jar hitters are paying me to be in Ohio, and I could be talking polls at home in my pajamas. Nate Silver gets paid six figures by the New York Times and never has to leave his Brooklyn apartment while telling the whole world that it is now a scientific certainty that Obama has a 80.9 percent likelihood of re-election.

Let me tell you something: As much as I want to defeat Obama, I want to destroy Nate Silver.

And I’m sure you do, too, which should be all the motivation anyone needs to go all-out for the next four days, to ensure that Nate’s a laughingstock on Nov. 7. Please hit the tip-jar.