The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

FROM OHIO: POLLS, POLLS, POLLS

Posted on | October 31, 2012 | 28 Comments

CINCINNATI, Ohio
Pete Da Tech guy disassembles a Quinnipiac Poll that has samples of D+7 in Florida and D+8 in both Florida and Ohio, so that while Mitt Romney handily wins independent voters in both states, he nonetheless trails Obama by 1 point in Florida, 2 points in Virginia and 5 points in Ohio. These numbers are a sort of statistical hallucination. Pete quotes Ed Morrissey at Hot Air:

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election.  If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead.  However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday.  In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

You might think some reporter at the New York Times, which co-sponsored this poll, would think it worth his while to interview the people at Quinnipiac and ask where they’re getting these weird over-samples of Democrats. What is causing this? How is it that Republicans report greater voting enthusiasm by such large margins, and yet are underrepresented in the poll’s sample? It makes no sense.

Meanwhile, there is an actual campaign to cover here in Ohio. I’m going to see Ann Romney’s 11:30 a.m. event in Hamilton.

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Category: Da Tech Guy, Ed Morrissey, Election 2012, Fear. Loathing., Ohio, Polls

Comments

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  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    I just don’t get all this emphasis on poles. While I like the Polish people [they're great to have on your bowling team], I think it very unfair to ignore Eye-Ties, Dagos, Huns, Chinamen, Japs, Injuns, Paddys, Yids, Russkies, etc….oh, wait!…never mind…

  • melanerpes

    The reporters at the New York Times are feeding a ravenous market appetite: their readers’ craving for hallucinogens.

  • http://twitter.com/richard_mcenroe richard mcenroe

    Wow. I never saw an entire commentariat stop what they were doing and stare at someone at the same time. Maybe you should move down the bar a couple stools. No reason…

  • http://2012.ak4mc.us/ McGehee

    You left out us Scots, you rrrrrreprobate!

  • Quartermaster

    We’re trying to make up for what the Rooskies and Krauts did to the Poles back in ’39. Have you no compassion?

  • http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/ Evi L. Bloggerlady

    http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/2012/10/alexrod-gives-qualified-wager-to-shave.html Axelrod gives a qualified wager to shave off his lip rat if Obama loses. Note that it is very qualified.

  • http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/ Evi L. Bloggerlady

    I like kielbasi The pork kind.

  • Pingback: GayPatriot » With Election Day approaching, Republicans far more enthusiastic

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    First good reason I’ve heard!

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    Apologies, ya Sawney.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    You mean to the empty chair???

    Gonzales: There is one question, Inspector Callahan: Why do they call you “Dirty Harry”?

    De Georgio: Ah that’s one thing about our Harry, doesn’t play any favorites! Harry hates everybody: Limeys, Micks, Hebes, Fat Dagos, Niggers, Honkies, Chinks, you name it.

    Gonzales: How does he feel about Mexicans?

    De Georgio: Ask him.

    Harry Callahan: Especially Spics.

  • Mark30339

    It seems to me that leftist contingencies for stuffing ballots need the battlefield to be saturated with pre-election expectations of a tight race slightly tilted toward a democrat victory. If the MSM reports that Romney’s up by 5 points, there will be much more outrage and suspicion of election rigging should Obama sneak through with a small margin victory filled with countless precinct anomalies over new found sacks of absentee ballots, disqualified military ballots, and disputed counts on provisional ballots. I think we should coin the phrase “Chads Squared” and get ready to apply it to the post-election fight about to arrive.

  • http://wizbangblog.com/ Adjoran

    No, it’s poles like the young ladies use to dance with.

  • http://wizbangblog.com/ Adjoran

    Actually, it makes PERFECT sense as I’ve been saying for weeks. The problem is the response rate is down to 9% on average, and a larger number of Republicans, conservatives, and Tea Party folks are refusing to play along. That leaves a sample biased to the Democrats even if the pollster does everything by the book.

    The finding that GOP turnout will be lower than 2008 should be your big clue. They can only find that if there are too few Republican voters in the pool. It isn’t necessary to “weight” the polls like Nate Silver does, just report on the sample you draw. If our folks are hanging up on them, they can’t very well include us, can they?

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  • http://www.facebook.com/Stan25 Stan Brewer

    Nate Silver feeding the pollsters his bullshit numbers? It sure seems like it. Of course, PMSNBC is slobbering so much that they had to move in one the pumps that is being used to dry out the subways to keep the building from flooding.

  • Quartermaster

    If he said he’d leave the country if Zer0 lost, he’d never lack airfare again.

  • daveinboca

    Of course, if you’re industrious enough to scroll down to page 18 [of 18] to check on party affiliations, you’d find Virginia in this Q poll had Dem 36%, GOP 29%, Ind 31%. Not one of the news organizations in the MSM will bother to note this blatant attempt to hoodwink the casual reader, period. Given that info, Allen may be slightly ahead, and Romney is probably ahead.

    This oversampling has happened to every Quinnipiac poll, so it’s not like those JournOList folks at the NYT aren’t noticing. Ditto for two of the three ABC/WaPo polls and forget about the NBC/WSJ polls. Not one major columnist ever bothers. Kind of spooky.

  • john

    I disagree. It’s not going to be close. Romney wins.

  • Aaron1960

    The latest poll ‘news’? Voter suppression articles.

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