Category: Budget

McConnell Says ‘Very Close’ to Deal on Debt-Ceiling Agreement With Obama UPDATE: Reid’s Bill Fails Senate Vote

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UPDATE 1:25 p.m. ET: The Senate just held a cloture vote on Harry Reid’s bill which, as expected, failed to get the 60 votes necessary to end debate and proceed. The vote was 50 “aye” and 49 “no.” So much for Reid’s bill being the “only game in town,” huh?

UPDATE 2:15 p.m. ET: Here’s the roll-call vote. Scott Brown of Massachusetts was the only Republican to vote “aye,” while Democrats Joe Manchin (West Virginia) and Ben Nelson (Nebraska) both voted “no,” as did socialist independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Reid voted against his own bill on the cloture motion; this is a parliamentary maneuver, since voting “no” permits Reid to bring his bill up for a vote later.

Linked at Legal Insurrection — thanks!

PREVIOUSLY (11:45 a.m. ET): The outlines of the Neither Fish Nor Fowl Bipartisan Sellout Compromise Act of 2011 are coming into focus, and the Senate Republican leader is cautious:

McConnell said he is “very very close to being able . . . to recommend to my members that this is something that they ought to support.”
“You’ll see that this is a process that could get him (President Obama) past the election. We’re working on the combinations that will get us there,” McConnell said. “I’m particularly appreciative that we’re now back talking to the only person in America who can sign something into law and that’s the president of the United States.”

Getting Senate approval for a compromise plan will likely be much easier than getting such a deal through the House, as I explain at The American Spectator:

How many Republican votes can House Speaker John Boehner deliver for a compromise that abandons principles that were seen as essential to conservatives, when he could just barely get 218 votes for his own bill Friday? And if Boehner can’t deliver a majority for the compromise deal, can Nancy Pelosi produce any Democrat votes at all, considering that zero Democrats voted for Boehner’s bill?

If this deal does go through, the biggest loser will be Harry Reid, as Professor William Jacobson says: “We don’t know all the details of the negotiations between Mitch McConnell and the White House which apparently are closing in on an agreement, but one thing is clear, Harry Reid has become a sideshow.”

There’s always more room under Obama’s bus, isn’t there?

UPDATE: Linked by Da Tech Guy — thanks! — and the latest word is that there will be a procedural “test vote” in the Senate at 1 p.m. ET.

UPDATE: OK, here are details on the “test vote,” which is a cloture motion on Harry Reid’s bill:

Talks intensified ahead of a test vote in the Senate on the Democrats’ debt-ceiling plan. That vote is expected to fail, putting the onus on negotiators to come up with yet another alternative. . . .
Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid has postponed a vote on his deficit-reduction package until 1 p.m. ET. That vote is still scheduled to take place, but 43 Senate Republicans have already vowed to oppose it, putting more pressure on negotiators to come up with an alternative.

Right now, I’m watching C-SPAN2, where Barbara Boxer is blathering on with her usual partisan crap.

UPDATE III: Boxer’s crap has now ended, and John McCain is now debating Dick Durbin. It’s like Freddie Krueger vs. Jason, Alien vs. Predator.

UPDATE IV: Amid the accusations of “betrayal!” and “sellout!” from conservatives angry at GOP concessions, let’s pause to look at what liberals are saying. Nate Silver of the New York Times:

The debt deals as reported really seem like more a capitulation by the White House than a compromise.

What the Left wanted — nay, demanded — were tax-increases on “The Rich” and “Corporate America.” Obama gave speech after speech demonizing “millionaires and billionaires.” But when push came to shove, he folded like a cheap suit.

If conservatives were in a mood to declare victory, we could easily do so on such grounds. Yet it seems to be Night of the Long Knives time, and there is a lot of grassroots anger toward the Republican Establishment.

Linked by Don Surber — thanks!


VIDEO: Harry Reid Exposed; Democrats Filibuster Their Own Debt-Ceiling Bill! UPDATE: Republicans Reportedly Reach Compromise Deal With White House

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I could scarcely believe it when Michelle Malkin blogged this earlier: Democrats spent more than 24 hours refusing to call a cloture vote on Harry Reid’s own debt-ceiling bill. Cloture — the motion to end debate and bring a measure to a vote — requires 60 votes and, if such a vote falls short of the 60-vote threshold, debate continues and the measure is thus said to be “filibustered.”

What has actually happened since Friday, however, is not a filibuster. Democrats led by Reid, who know they don’t have 60 votes for his bill, have refused GOP calls for the cloture vote. Democrats are thus in effect filibustering their own bill!

In one of the most amazing moments in Senate history, on Saturday afternoon Harry Reid called a “live quorum” — requiring all senators to be present in the chamber — and threw what can only be described as a tantrum, demanding that the cloture rule be waived. Malkin describes what happened:

He repeated “filibuster” 100 times and even spelled it out — f-i-l-i-b-u-s-t-er.
Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell asked why Reid wouldn’t allow a cloture vote on the Reid proposal at 6:30pm Eastern.
Reid let out a thin laugh and meekly said: “I object.”

This is one of those things you can’t actually believe unless you see it, so here’s the video:

You see Reid claims that Republicans are “threatening” a filibuster, but GOP leader Mitch McConnell isn’t making any threats at all — he’s just saying that the Senate should follow established procedure and have a cloture vote. Then Reid accuses Republicans of “putting lipstick” on a filibuster. As I wrote at The American Spectator:

Of course, there was not actually a filibuster. Reid simply refused to bring his own bill up for a cloture vote because he knew it would have failed to get 60 votes, thus exposing the truth that it isn’t House Republicans who are the real obstacle to passing a debt-ceiling bill. But the Democrats have invested so much propaganda in the myth of House GOP obstructionism — it’s those crazy Tea Party extremists! — that Harry had to whine, whine, whine about a “filibuster” in order to attempt to maintain the charade.

For connoisseurs of inside-the-Beltway gamesmanship, this is one of those Kodak moments you want to frame and put on the mantle.

BTW, the plan had been to bring the bill to a vote at 1 a.m. ET Sunday– an hour past midnight – but about 10 p.m. Democrats announced an adjournment until noon, with a planned vote at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.

UPDATE: You may have noticed during that video that McConnell said he’d interrupted a conversation with Vice President Joe Biden in order to meet Reid’s call for a live quorum. Now there are unconfirmed reports that a deal has been reached between the White House and GOP leaders. So this leaves Harry Reid — who had previously said his bill was “the only game in town” — playing with himself.

What a complete chump!

UPDATE II: Jimmie Bise was one of the first to blog the (alleged) deal, and Ed Morrissey says:

It’s a deal we could have reached two weeks ago, but were never going to reach until time ran out.

Of course, but that’s like complaining about having to take a girl on three dates even when you knew from the start she was never going to put out until the third date.

UPDATE III: Linked by POH Diaries — thanks!

UPDATE IV: Jennifer Rubin has details of the deal:

Two senior Republican offices have confirmed that while the outlines of a debt-ceiling deal are in place, no “paper” has been exchanged. The agreement would take the country through the 2012 election, but the Boehner bill two-step cutting process would remain. A trillion in cuts up front would be followed by $1.8 more to be determined by a bipartisan commission.

(Hat-tip: Instapundit.) The important thing: No tax increases on those “millionaires and billionaires” in “corporate jets” that Obama has been demonizing for weeks. So any conservatives in a mood to claim victory can score that a “win.”

Of course, what we’re actually going to hear from conservatives is a lot of bitter complaints about GOP sellouts, while liberals whine about weak-kneed Obama “caving” to right-wing extremists.


VIDEO: The Man With No Plan Accuses House Republicans of Irresponsibility

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“President Snippy Pants,” as William Teach calls him, evidently believes what America needs is more lectures from him:

While accusing the House GOP of wasting time by, y’know, passing legislation, our Lecturer-in-Chief uses his weekly address to issue yet another iteration of Democrat Party talking points:

Republicans in the House of Representatives just spent precious days trying to pass a plan that a majority of Republicans and Democrats in the Senate had already said they wouldn’t vote for. It’s a plan that wouldn’t solve our fiscal problems, but would force us to re-live this crisis in just a few short months. It would hold our economy captive to Washington politics once again. If anything, the past few weeks have demonstrated that’s unacceptable.
Any solution to avoid default must be bipartisan. It must have the support of both parties that were sent here to represent the American people — not just one faction of one party. . . .
Now all of us — including Republicans in the House of Representatives — need to demonstrate the same kind of responsibility that the American people show every day. The time for putting party first is over.

One hesitates to spend “precious days” (or even precious minutes) fisking this, as the hypocritical falseness of Obama’s rhetoric really ought to be self-evident.

Let us first have done with Obama’s bogus insinuation that he represents the credible voice of “responsibility.” He hasn’t put forward any detailed plan of his own. Instead of providing a budget, he gave a speech — April 13 at George Washington University — in which he dishonestly used the phrase “my budget,” and rolled out the focus-group-tested phrase “balanced approach” (i.e., code for “tax increases”).

In his GWU speech, the president recycled the old-and-busted partisan talking-point that ObamaCare “will reduce our deficit by $1 trillion” (laughably false), and then infamously asserted that his “balanced approach” would “achieve $4 trillion in deficit reduction over twelve years.”

I say he “infamously” made this assertion, because it stands as a historic milestone in the annals of deceptive political rhetoric. Continue reading VIDEO: The Man With No Plan Accuses House Republicans of Irresponsibility →

Blame Harry Reid If U.S. Defaults

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Dirty Harry’s Senate has passed nothing, and immediately voted down the debt-ceiling bill that the Republican-led House passed Friday:

The Senate on Friday evening rejected House Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) plan to raise the debt limit, upping the ante in the game of chicken between House and Senate.
The 59-41 vote, on a motion to table the resolution passed by the House less than two hours before, ran mostly along party lines, easily reaching the simple majority required to sink legislation in the upper chamber.
Six Republicans joined Democrats to table the Boehner resolution: Sens. Jim DeMint (S.C.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Orrin Hatch (Utah), Mike Lee (Utah), Rand Paul (Ky.), and David Vitter (La.).
Boehner’s office said the Senate’s refusal to take up the House plan puts the blame on Democrats if the U.S. defaults.
“For the second time, the House has passed a reasonable, common-sense plan to raise the debt limit and cut spending and, for the second time, Sen. [Harry] Reid [D-Nev.] has tabled it,” spokesman Michael Steel said in a statement. “The responsibility to end this crisis is now entirely in the hands of Sen. Reid and President Obama.”

Barbara Espinosa at American Freedom has more on Harry Reid’s do-nothing Democrats, who haven’t passed a budget in more than two years.

UPDATE: Senate rejects Boehner plan, Reid won’t allow vote tonight on his own plan. “It’s not a plan, it’s a talking point,” says Instapundit.

Boehner Debt-Ceiling Bill Barely Passes House 218-210; 22 GOP ‘No’ Votes

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We’ll have the roll-call and other news momentarily.

UPDATE: New York Times:

The House of Representatives on Friday approved a plan for a short-term increase in the debt ceiling and cuts in spending, ending a week of intense fighting among Republicans and shifting the end game of the debate to the Senate.
The vote was 218-210, leaving House Speaker John A. Boehner with 20 Republicans who were unwilling to support his efforts to get a bill approved.
Urging passage for the bill, an emotional Mr. Boehner angrily accused President Obama and his Democratic allies of negotiating in bad faith for weeks and called the bill the only way to “end this crisis now.”
“All they would do was criticize what I put out there,” Mr. Boehner said, his voice rising during a rare appearance on the floor. “I stuck my neck out a mile to get an agreement with the president of the United States. I stuck my neck out a mile. I put revenues on the table.”
He added: “A lot of people in this town can never say yes.”

UPDATE II: Video of Boehner’s speech:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

UPDATE III: Need a good laugh? While accusing Republicans of hostage-taking, White House press secretary Jay Carney expresses concern that “the economy has suffered”:

Where was Jay Carney’s concern for the economy while his boss, Obama, was wrecking the economy?

UPDATE IV: The 22 House Republicans who voted “no”:

Justin Amash (Mich.)
Michele Bachmann (Minn.)
Chip Cravaack (Minn.)
Scott Desjarlais (Tenn.)
Tom Graves (Ga.)
Tim Huelskamp (Kans.)
Steve King (Iowa)
Tim Johnson (Ill.)
Tom McClintock (Calif.)
Mick Mulvaney (S.C.)
Ron Paul (Texas)
Tom Price (Ga.)
Connie Mack (Fla.)
Jim Jordan (Ohio)
Tim Scott (S.C.)
Paul Broun (Ga.)
Tom Latham (Iowa)
Jeff Duncan (S.C.)
Trey Gowdy (S.C.)
Steve Southerland (Fla.)
Joe Walsh (Ill.)
Joe Wilson (S.C.)

(Hat-tip: Politicons.)

UPDATE V: Statement from freshman GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack, explaining his “no” vote on the Boehner bill:

Last week, I voted in favor of the only solution to our nation’s spending spiral to achieve long-term fiscal sustainability – the Cut, Cap, and Balance Act of 2011. We must be responsible now. This includes savings to projected budget levels, enforceable spending controls, and a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution to avert a debt crisis, national default, and credit rating downgrade.
This evening, I could not in good conscience support the Budget Control Act considered by the House because the numbers simply don’t add up. The legislation would enable our nation to continue borrowing on an unsustainable course without the savings it desperately needs, the spending controls to prevent a U.S. credit downgrade, or the guarantee of a Balanced Budget Amendment to ensure prosperity for future Americans.
Last November, I told my constituents in the 8th District that I’m a numbers guy. I gave them my promise and my word that “if the numbers don’t add up, I’m not voting for it.” My constituents know me as a man of principle, and the bill considered by the House tonight is a bad bill that does little to thwart our abysmal economic trajectory.
I applaud the bill’s defense of American working families and job creators and look forward to working with my House colleagues in the coming days to determine a path forward. I urge the House and the Senate to act judiciously in our national interest.

UPDATE VI: Statement from Rep. Paul Broun (R-Ga.) explaining his “no” vote:

I cannot in good conscience vote for a bill that puts the future of my grandchildren and of generations to come in jeopardy. While I respect my Republican colleagues’ efforts to come up with a compromise, the people in the 10th Congressional District of Georgia did not send me to Washington to follow the herd. They sent me here to protect their liberty and to fundamentally change the way our federal government spends their money. I do support a Balanced Budget Amendment, but I do not support raising the debt ceiling and allowing President Obama to put more debt on the backs of the American people. Congress needs to first acknowledge that we have lost all control of our fiscal house, and then we need to focus on finding a real solution for paying down the national debt.

UPDATE VII: Freshman Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-N.C.) explains her “yes” vote on the Boehner bill:

This evening, the House made history by successfully passing the Balanced Budget Act of 2011. This bill, which I am proud to support, is a fiscally sound solution to put an end to this spending-driven debt crisis and will save the people who sent us here and their families from a bankrupt future. We have now sent not one, but two bills to the Senate that promote both common sense and real spending cuts. If the President and leaders in the Senate are serious about balancing our budget and ending this debt crisis, they will allow this legislation to come to the Senate floor for a vote and be signed into law.

Freshman Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) explains his “yes” vote on the Boehner bill:

The Budget Control Act is far from perfect but the hard reality is that fiscal conservatives control only one-half of one-third of our government. This bill will make sure the President does not receive a blank check to continue his spending binge and the old ways of Washington, DC – blindly increasing the debt limit without spending cuts- are over. This vote is historic- it’s the first time we are raising the debt ceiling with cuts greater than the increase.
I learned when I was a solider at Fort Irwin National Training Center that when Officers waste too much time trying to come up with the perfect plan, they fall short because they are too inflexible or divided to see the path to victory. However, if you can come up with a 70-75 percent plan and execute it well, then you can win- and that’s what we have in the Budget Control Act.
The Budget Control Act is not perfect, but it is the 70 percent plan that my colleagues and I can execute to 100 percent.
It is now time for the focus to be on the United States Senate to produce a plan to take this country forward.
My fellow Americans, I ask you: If I had voted “No” on the Budget Control Act, who would I have been voting for?

UPDATE VIII: Bryan Preston notes that the entire South Carolina GOP delegation voted “no,” as did 2012 presidential candidate Michele Bachmann.


Pete Wins the $10. I Blame Soros.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to drop by the 200 points I’d predicted. It was down badly, off 96.87 to close at 12,143.24, but that wasn’t enough to win my $10 bet against Pete Da Tech Guy, so I’ve already paid off.

It’s obvious to me that George Soros manipulated the market today just to screw me out of that $10. Some may call it “paranoia” to blame Soros — why should an evil billionaire care about a small wager between two minor right-wing bloggers? — but the evidence is clear enough.

Never mind that now. The Dow has fallen in each of the past six sessions, losing more than 580 points since closing at 12,724.41 July 21 — Wall Street’s worst week in a year.

Not bad enough to win me $10, but pretty bad.

UPDATE: Fox Business:

A stalemate in Washington over lifting the debt ceiling, combined with gloomy economic data, sent the blue chips tumbling more than 4% for the week. . . .
Amid the volatility, traders once again flocked to gold, which has continually hit record highs. The precious metal gained $15.00, or 0.93%, to $1,631 a troy ounce. Silver climbed 31 cents, or 0.78%, to $40.11 a troy ounce. 

More gold news from the Wall Street Journal:

The most actively traded gold contract, for December delivery, settled at a record $1,631.20 a troy ounce, up $15.00, or 0.9% on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract touched an intraday record of $1,637.50.
August-delivery gold rose $14.90, or 0.9%, to settle at a record $1,628.30 a troy ounce. It earlier touched an intraday record of $1,634.90.
Gold surged on weaker-than-expected U.S. growth data, which fortified investor concerns about the economy and pressured the dollar. The nation’s gross domestic product grew at 1.3% in the second quarter this year, well short of the 1.8% growth forecast by economists. The government’s first-quarter growth reading was slashed to a paltry 0.4%.

Everybody keeps saying it’s a “bubble,” but gold just keeps going up, up, up.


Obama Speaks, Markets Fall

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Before President Obama’s speech, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 90 points. Now — as of 10:45 a.m. ET — it’s down 110 points.

Why? Because he used his speech for a partisan hit on the GOP as offering a bill that “does not solve the problem” and can’t pass Harry Reid’s Democrat-controlled Senate.

But the big question is: Will I win that $10 bet?

UPDATE: Hmmmm. Now a slight bounce — at 10:55, DJIA is off about 40 points around 12,200.

Nothing like a little wager to make you watch this stuff.

UPDATE II: David Dayen at liberal Firedoglake:

Obama says “The House is still trying to pass a bill that the Senate won’t vote for. It does not solve the problem and it has no chance of becoming law. Any bill to avoid default must be bipartisan. It will have to have support of the House and the Senate.” . . .
This is a nothing speech, actually.

Exactly — a mere repetition of his earlier talking points.

UPDATE III: A few financial/economic headlines:

Data shows deeper recession, sharper slowdown
— Reuters

Economy Grows at Sluggish 1.3%; Consumers Pull Back
— CNBC

Economy in U.S. Grows Less Than Forecast After Almost Stalling
— Bloomberg

Arizona Republican Rep. Jeff Flake just said that changes in the Boehner bill make it something he can vote for. And the DJIA just broke into positive territory, so my $10 bet is looking shaky.

BLACK FRIDAY? Betting Market Reaction to Failure of Boehner’s Debt-Ceiling Bill

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Drudge Report headlines:

Boehner Delays Vote on Debt...
Limbaugh: We've Been Played...

GALLUP: Obama Rates Higher Than Boehner, Reid on Debt Situation!

Ron Paul: 'Default Is Coming'...

Treasury Contingency Plan on Debt Gives Priority to Bondholders...
Carney: If We Have No Other Alternative We Will 'Take Action'...

Obama faces legal bind if time runs out...

When word came late last night that House Speaker John Boehner didn’t have enough GOP votes to pass his bill, I wrote:

The most obvious possible prediction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop at least 200 points Friday.

Rather than merely predict such a result — talk is cheap — I decided to make the proposition interesting:

Pete Da Tech Guy took the bet. The DJIA closed at 12,240.11 Thursday, so if it closes at 12,040.11 or less Friday, I collect $10. But if the Friday close is 12,040.12 or more, Pete collects $10.

After Pete and I made our friendly wager last night, my buddy John Guardiano started giving me flak about it, saying that among other things I was “playing into the Left’s eagerness to stoke a market downturn so they can force House Republicans to capitulate.”

Here’s the thing: I’m not making a value judgment. It’s irrelevant, as regards my $10 bet, whether the House should or should not pass the Boehner bill. I’m just acting on the knowledge that the market hates uncertainty, which is why the DJIA lost a total 484 points in the past five sessions. And here are the headlines in Friday’s papers:

House Puts Off Debt Vote as Press by Boehner Fails
— New York Times

House Leaders Postpone Vote on Debt Plan
— Washington Post

House Vote on Boehner Plan Is Delayed
— Wall Street Journal

Are you getting my drift here? If the DJIA was losing an average 97 points per day before last night’s big flop, doesn’t it just make sense that Wall Street will be having a Freakout Friday Fire Sale today?

Drew M. at AOSHQ says: “Tomorrow (Friday) is 2Q GDP report day. Should be fun. And by fun I mean, awful.”

The initial reaction to the Big Boehner Bungle from both U.S. futures markets and the Asian markets indicated my common-sense hunch was right. But markets are notoriously unpredictable (otherwise we’d all be rich), so it’s anybody’s guess whether Pete or I will be smiling when the closing bell rings on Wall Street this afternoon.

If you think I’m going to win, you should hit Pete’s tip jar. 

However, if you think Pete’s going to collect the bet, hit my tip jar.



UPDATE: Morning headling from Bloomberg:

Asian Stocks Decline on U.S. Debt Deadlock

. . . “If a resolution in the U.S. is not reached, clearly the economy will suffer so that demand will wane significantly, and we’ll see pressure on Asian exporter earnings and shares,” said Chris Hall, who helps manage $4 billion of assets at Argo Investments Ltd. in Adelaide. “Earnings are mixed across the spectrum. There are still a lot of unknowns right now, and everyone’s incredibly cautious.” . . .
“Its unbelievable, these guys are not just playing with financial markets but their own constituents’ jobs,” said Sydney-based Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which has almost $100 billion under management. “It’s certainly adding to stock-market nervousness. I think they will eventually get a deal that avoids massive spending cuts or default, but the risk is growing that they won’t.” . . .

UPDATE II: Wall Street Journal headline:

European Stocks Plunge on Debt Fears