Weiner’s Wiener?
UPDATE: Who Is ‘Gennette Nicole’?
UPDATE: Questions Piling Up

New York Democrat Rep. Anthony Weiner allegedly sent an alleged photo of his alleged penis to an alleged woman via Twitter.

The photo shows a man in gray undershorts with a bulging erection. Weiner is claiming he was the victim of Internet hackers, and I think we should believe him.

Because his penis is probably much smaller than that.

Via Memeorandum, with blog commentary by Patterico’s Pontifications, The Jawa Report, Sister Toldjah, No Sheeples Here, Doug Ross, Weasel Zippers and American Power.

UPDATE: Velvet Hammer at Ironic Surrealism examines “Gennette Nicole,” the self-described “progressive” journalism student in Seattle to whom Weiner allegedly sent the photo, and who had previously described the married congressman as her “boyfriend.” Her Twitter account has now disappeared down the memory hole.

UPDATE II: Gennette Nicole Cordova is a student at Whatcom Community College, Bellingham, Wash., where she is a reporter for the student newspaper, Horizon.

Hat tip to “ThoughtsAloud” on Twitter for the original ID and photo.

It must be emphasized that at this point we have no idea whether Ms. Cordova actually knows Rep. Weiner, whether her Twitter claim of him being her “boyfriend” was just a joke, or whether Rep. Weiner actually communicated with Ms. Cordova.

Let’s hope Rep. Weiner will clarify this confusion, before the media scrum descends on Ms. Cordova.

UPDATE III: Jesse LaGreca at Daily Kos is trying to turn this into a story about Andrew Breitbart, which is ridiculous. We seem to have actual facts here, facts which require some plausible explanation.

Very simple questions: Was Rep. Weiner exchanging online messages with Ms. Cordova? If so, why? If this is all just a misunderstanding — if Rep. Weiner was the victim of hackers — why was Ms. Cordova the recipient of that message? Why would a hacker randomly select a student journalist in Washington State to send that to?

The congressman’s office can either answer those questions — and answer them PDQ — or else wait until every political reporter on the West Coast is camped out in front of Ms. Cordova’s house.

UPDATE IV: I just got off the phone with Andrew Breitbart, who denies any insinuation of wrongdoing on his part in reporting the story now known by the Twitter hashtag #WeinerGate.

Frances Martel at Mediaite writes that the story is “a reminder that Andrew Breitbart’s editors and writers do not aim to abide by accepted journalistic standards.” Exactly how the hell “accepted journalistic standards” should be applied to a congressman (apparently) Tweeting a picture of his penis to a college student, I’m not sure.

But here is a question Breitbart posed during our phone conversation: If someone hacked Rep. Weiner’s online accounts, isn’t that a crime? Isn’t it, indeed, a national security threat?

OK, so has Rep. Weiner reported this crime to the police? Is the FBI investigating? When will we have a press conference at which Rep. Weiner vows to get to bottom of this crime against him, and bring the perpetrators to justice?

There is a dog there, you see. And as Sherlock Holmes might point out, that dog is not barking.

RB at the Right Sphere doesn’t think the hacking story holds water.

UPDATE V: Ace of Spades reminds us that Weiner is Meghan McCain’s favorite Democrat. Some jokes just write themselves, don’t they?

UPDATE VI: “Anthony Weiner’s Self-Proclaimed Girlfriend is a 21-Year Old Coed, only 25 Years Younger Than the Married Congressman.” But who are we to judge?

UPDATE VII: Thanks to Soren Kay in the comments for linking this useful collection of online WeinerGate resources.

UPDATE VIII: WeinerGate has been at the top of the Memeorandum aggregation for hours, and yet it appears that no traditional news organization finds it newsworthy. Da Tech Guy decided to do some reporting:

I took the liberty of calling congressman Weiner’s office, the recorded messaged referred me to a press number to call after hours. I called the number and the gentleman named Joe who answered claimed I had the wrong number so I called back the congressman’s office to confirm the number in question (it was correct) and called the press number again. It now goes directly to voice mail. I left my name and home and cell numbers at both locations, and I’ll let you know if anything pans out, but I found that reaction…interesting.

Weiner’s press secretary dodging phone calls? Perhaps more reporters ought to call 202-225-6616 and try to get some answers, because the questions keep piling up out here. Dan Riehl asks, “Why Would Rep Weiner Care What Time It Was In Seattle?”

Liz Benjamin notices something else: “The woman to whom the picture was sent has since deleted both her Facebook and Twitter accounts. Very odd.”

Indeed, it is very odd. If Ms. Cordova was merely the victim of a hacker’s hoax, why would she delete her accounts?

Linked by Don Surber, The Lonely Conservative, Fire Andrea Mitchell and Pundit Press — thanks!

UPDATE IX: Linked by Gateway Pundit and No Sheeples Here — thanks!

UPDATE X: Linked by Joe at Valley of the Shadow, who grew up in Weiner’s district.

UPDATE XI: Neil Stevens at Red State observes that Ace of Spades hilariously eviscerated Weiner’s “I was hacked” explanation. I’d imagine the congressman spent most of Saturday evening trying to come up with a plausible defense.

UPDATE XII: Linked by Moe Lane, who notes that somebody spent a lot of time Sarturday trying to scrub the name “Gennette Cordova” off the Internet — even having her byline removed from articles she wrote for her college newspaper!


Media Psy-Ops in NY-26

In my very first post about the NY-26 special election (May 10), I warned:

NY-26 is a winnable district, and a GOP defeat would be interpreted by the media (however falsely) as a repudiation of the conservative agenda.

And on May 17, I warned that a Democrat victory “will be headlined as evidence that the Paul Ryan budget plan is a political liability for Republicans.” You can see those prophecies fulfilled in this morning’s headlines at Memeorandum:

Democrat Wins G.O.P. Seat;
Rebuke Seen to Medicare Plan
 

Six Months After Midterm Disaster,
Hopeful Signs for Democrats
 

Democrat Kathy Hochul Wins Upset In NY-26,
Medicare Vote Key To Victory

Readers should be asking themselves, “Why didn’t I hear any warnings about NY-26 on talk radio or Fox News? Why have MSNBC and other liberal media been banging the drums about this special election for weeks, while most conservative media ignored it?” I don’t have any answers to those questions, but I think it’s important to ask.

Da Tech Guy contrasts the media spin on NY-26 with their spin on last year’s Hawaii special election. Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) are attempting to turn perception into reality, by engaging in what Da Tech Guy accurately describes as “psy-ops.”

Oh, My: Hearing Turns Ugly

Harvard Law professor Elizabeth Warren, a special advisor to President Obama, got raked over the coals yesterday by Rep. Patrick McHenry and other Republicans:

A House committee hearing on Tuesday about the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau disintegrated into heated accusations of lying, with the panel’s chairman accusing Elizabeth Warren of giving misleading testimony at a hearing in March and of making up facts about her agreement to testify this week.
Representative Patrick T. McHenry, a North Carolina Republican who is chairman of a subcommittee of the House oversight committee, told Ms. Warren, who is directing the start of the consumer agency, that he believed she had misled Congress about her role in settlement talks between government authorities and mortgage servicing companies. . . . .
After an hour in which Ms. Warren repeatedly parried efforts by Mr. McHenry and other Republicans to pin her down with “yes or no” answers to questions about her March testimony — and about the bureau’s powers and responsibilities — Mr. McHenry abruptly moved for a temporarily recess so lawmakers could attend a floor vote.
Ms. Warren objected, saying that she had agreed to be present for only an hour and had no more time. . . .

It was at that point that the following exchange took place:

Ed Morrissey at Hot Air:

Warren claimed that they had agreed to work around her schedule, and that she had important meetings to attend . . . What meeting might Warren have that would be more important than a Congressional hearing into the activities of her agency?

(Via Memeorandum.) Permit me to observe that, if Obama is going to put Harvard Law faculty in charge of economic policy, perhaps he should appoint some economists to the Justice Department. Just to be fair.

UPDATE: The meeting that Elizabeth Warren was so insistent on attending may have had a political purpose:

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., who is fending off criticism from members of his own party for publicly opposing a GOP plan to overhaul Medicare, could face a potential challenge to his seat from the woman appointed by President Obama to run a controversial agency designed to protect consumers from bank abuses.
Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard law professor who is anathema to Republicans for her fierce criticism of the banks, reportedly is being recruited by Democrats to run for the seat that was held by Ted Kennedy for nearly half a century. Brown surprised Democrats by winning the seat in a special election in January 2010. He is up for re-election in 2012. . . .
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) would not confirm that it is wooing Warren to run nor would a spokesman deny it.

Was Warren supposed to be meeting with Chuck Schumer and the DSCC staff to discuss the Massachusetts election? And if so, did McHenry and his colleagues know it?

NY-26 ELECTION NIGHT HQ
UPDATE: Democrat Hochul Wins

12:30 a.m. ET: The predicted spin from the New York Times:

Democrats scored an upset in one of New York’s most conservative Congressional districts on Tuesday, dealing a blow to the national Republican Party in a race that largely turned on the party’s plan to overhaul Medicare.

11:45 p.m. ET: Erick Erickson at Red State:

The truth of the matter is that the Republican Party of New York sucks and has sucked for a while. It is especially terrible at special elections where the out of touch party leaders pick state legislators who everyone hates and runs them.
Jane Corwin is a sitting member of the NY State Legislature, just like Jim Tedisco, just like Dede Scozzafava, and she was handpicked by the party elders. Notice a trend?

Good points. This election was anomalous, as I said earlier today. With 97% of precincts reporting, Jack Davis’s vote (9,495) is more than double Democrat Kathy Hochul’s 4,694 margin over Corwin. However, the impact of Davis’s phony “Tea Party” candidacy — like the blunders of the New York GOP — will be all but ignored as the MSM spins NY-26 as a huge Democrat triumph of national significance.

10:45 p.m. ET: Now that it’s over — Jane Corwin has conceded, as Jazz Shaw reports — let me say a few words to the Republican Party of New York.

WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE?

In the middle of a recession, why would you nominate an heiress for Congress? Not to play class-warfare here, but do you really think that it helps the GOP win over hard-pressed blue-collar voters when you run a candidate who inherited part of a $4o0 million fortune? You think folks can relate to that?

And why, Republican Party of New York, if you were going to insist on nominating Jane Corwin for this special election, couldn’t you have at least done something to keep David Bellavia on the GOP team? Bellavia’s endorsement of Jack Davis hurt you guys pretty bad, but your campaign was so generally mismanaged that maybe you didn’t notice.

So now we have to listen to Democrats gloat about what a huge setback this is to the conservative movement when, as we all know, it’s just further proof of the incompetence of the Republican Party of New York — as if we needed further proof!

UPDATE 10:14 p.m. ET: It’s over. With 75% of precincts reporting, and Democrat Kathy Hochul leading by nearly 5,000 votes — 48%-42% — she has been declared the winner over Republican Jane Corwin. Third-party spoiler Jack Davis’s vote total will be greater than Hochul’s margin of victory.

With 469 (75%) of 627 precincts reporting:

Kathy Hochul (Democrat) . . . . . . 39,492 (48%)
Jane Corwin (Republican) . . . . . . 34,553 (42%)
Jack Davis (Crazy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,722 (8%)

UPDATE 9:50 p.m. ET: Still no precincts reporting from Genesee or Orleans counties. Hochul’s lead of about 2,700 votes is coming entirely from Erie County.

UPDATE 9:45 p.m. ET: With 345 (55%) of 627 precincts reporting:

Kathy Hochul (Democrat) . . . . . . 29,063 (48%)
Jane Corwin (Republican) . . . . . . 26,277 (43%)
Jack Davis (Crazy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,090 (8%)

UPDATE 9:37 p.m. ET: With 210 (33%) of 627 precincts reporting:

Kathy Hochul (Democrat) . . . . . . 18,022 (48%)
Jane Corwin (Republican) . . . . . . 16,033 (42%)
Jack Davis (Crazy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,369 (9%)

UPDATE 9:33 p.m. ET: Looking at the county-by-county results, I notice that so far we haven’t gotten any results from Genesee (53 precincts), Orleans (32 precincts) or Wyoming (40 precincts) counties.

UPDATE 9:28 p.m. ET: With 87 (14%) of 627 precincts reporting:

Kathy Hochul (Democrat) . . . . . . 7,393 (46%)
Jane Corwin (Republican) . . . . . . 7,004 (43%)
Jack Davis (Crazy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,644 (10%)

Linked by The Lonely Conservative — thanks!

UPDATE 9:23 p.m. ET: With 20 (3%) of 627 precincts reporting:

Kathy Hochul (Democrat) . . . . . . 3,098 (46%)
Jane Corwin (Republican) . . . . . . 2,811 (42%)
Jack Davis (Crazy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 790 (12%)

UPDATE 9:05 p.m. ET: The Buffalo News will be the go-to source for live election results, and they’ve also got the vote breakdown county-by-county.

PREVIOUSLY: Polls close at 9 p.m. ET in the special election to fill the seat vacated by Chris Lee in New York’s 26th District. We will have complete results and analysis.

Dave Weigel, who traveled to the district to cover the closing week of the campaign, is liveblogging at Slate. Jessica Taylor is liveblogging at National Journal.

Jazz Shaw has an open thread at Hot Air, and notes that Republican Jane Corwin has already gone to court to prevent an early certification of tonight’s results.

PREVIOUSLY:

NY-26 Election Day: Are Crazy Jack’s Supporters Breaking Toward Democrat?

Jazz Shaw points out in the Hot Air Green Room that, contrary to some expectations, the erosion of fake “Tea Party” candidate Jack Davis’s support has not translated to poll gains for Republican Jane Corwin. This adds doubt to Politico‘s prediction that a low vote for Crazy Jack would necessarily portend a Corwin victory in today’s New York congressional election.

But what Jazz points out is, upon reflection, quite logical: Jack Davis ran as a Democrat three times — in 2004, 2006 and 2008 — and it only makes sense that most of his “soft” support would be Democratic voters. Once these voters became aware that Kathy Hochul was the actual Democrat candidate in the 26th District special election, most of them quite naturally switched their preference to her.

Therefore, those voters who actually do vote for Crazy Jack — however small their number — will come almost entirely from the ranks of Republican voters or independents who, in most years, lean toward the GOP. Jazz correctly points out that it is still impossible to predict tonight’s outcome:

As Nate Silver pointed out this week, polling single House races for a special election is notoriously difficult. Turnout is almost uniformly low compared to a general election, particularly when a governorship or the presidency is on the line. Low turnout races increase the margin of error, and while this race is likely to still be very close, it could flip either way by tonight.

This was something I kept pointing out last fall: Polling a congressional race is harder than polling a statewide election or a presidential election, and a low-turnout election like this one will hinge on which party can get its voters to the polls.

It’s not particularly encouraging that the Republican Party of New York is so incompetent as to allow their volunteer phone bank to be infiltrated by leftist provocateurs.

More news at Memeorandum. Polls in NY-26 close tonight at 9 p.m. If you live there, vote Corwin. And we’ll have the results tonight.

PREVIOUSLY:

NY-26 UPDATE: Are 13 Percent of Voters Really Going to Vote for Crazy Jack?

On the eve of Tuesday’s special election, the most recent polls in New York’s 26th District are a good-news/bad-news tale: The good news is that support for fake “Tea Party” candidate Crazy Jack Davis has been cut in half since a month ago, when Davis — who ran as a Democrat in 2004, 2006 and 2008 — was getting 23% support in this traditionally Republican district.

The bad news? One out of eight voters is so stupid they’re still going to vote for that protectionist bozo Crazy Jack — or at least that’s what they’re telling pollsters:

Kathy Hochul (Democrat) . . . . . 42%
Jane Corwin (Republican) . . . . . 36%
Jack Davis (Crazy) . . . . . . . . . . . 13%

Republican Jane Corwin is trailing by 6 points, according to this poll, but we remember that polls last October that showed Democrat Dan Maffei leading by 12 points two weeks before he lost to Republican Ann Marie Buerkle in neighboring NY-25.

This is definitely still winnable for Corwin, despite the Davis candidacy and despite two or three layers of GOP bungling that I don’t even want to get into now. Democrats want to claim this anomalous election as a national repudiation of Paul Ryan’s budget-cutting plan and a harbinger of Democrat victories in 2012. However preposterous that claim may seem, it is nonetheless the spin you’ll be hearing Tuesday night and Wednesday if Hochul wins. A sampling of the latest news stories:

  • Politico: “Republican Jane Corwin badly wants to be the candidate of change in Tuesday’s special election, but the wave that swept 63 new Republicans into the House last November might have passed her by. . . . Corwin finds herself in a race that has largely become a referendum on Medicare and the budget proposed by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.).”
  • National Journal: “Furor over Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget and its changes to Medicare have been the driving issue in this campaign. Hochul points to April 15 as the defining day in her campaign — the day the GOP caucus overwhelmingly voted for the House Budget Committee’s plan that would alter Medicare for future seniors.”
  • Time: “The first election since House Republicans passed Paul Ryan’s budget has become a referendum on the two parties’ differing visions of the fate of Medicare and a potential bellwether for races nationwide in 2012.”

You get the drift. Whatever Democrats decide is the big issue in an election, most journalists feel obligated to agree is the big issue, and so the media and Democrats are united in trying to portray NY-26 as a referendum on the Ryan plan.

If the Republican wins? Oh, well, never mind. And as Sam Foster at The Lonely Conservative points out, another poll has Corwin within four points, which is margin-of-error territory. A strong conservative turnout could make the difference. A couple of hard-hitting ads for Corwin:


JANE CORWIN FOR U.S. CONGRESS

PREVIOUSLY:

NY-26 Update: Jane Corwin Ad

Responding to Democrat attacks, the GOP is really trying to blur the Medicare/Social Security issue:

The most effective part of this ad is Corwin’s appearance at the end. She just seems nice, doesn’t she?

Dave Weigel is up in the district covering the campaign, and has a report on Wednesday’s debate between Corwin and Democrat Kathy Hochul. The Rochester Democrat and Chronicle reports that Hochul kept hammering on the Paul Ryan budget plan — Democrats want the NY-26 special election to be a negative referendum on that — while Corwin described Hochul as a “career politician.”

UPDATE: Robert Costa at National Review emphasizes the national implications of NY-26:

Corwin also finds herself in the middle of a proxy war between national Republicans and Democrats over Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget. Corwin backs Ryan’s effort; Hochul has tethered her hopes to demonizing Ryan’s Medicare reforms, which she claims would harm seniors.
Democrats, sensing disarray in a deep-red district, would love to pick up the seat, mere weeks after Ryan and his House GOP colleagues promoted the budget at town-hall meetings. Republicans, fearful of that spin, are performing triage, sending organizers and volunteers to Corwin headquarters.
“Democrats are going to try to make the 2012 House elections a referendum on ‘Paul Ryan’s plan to end Medicare,’ which all but a small handful of Republicans voted for,” says Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia. “NY-26 has too many complicating factors for this to fairly be considered a referendum on Ryan, but inevitably that is how many will interpret the election.”

Read the whole thing. At the end, Costa touches on the problem with David Bellavia, who was passed over for the GOP nomination and is now supporting Crazy Jack Davis. Bellavia’s situation and the problems of the New York Republican Party deserve more attention than I can give it here, but it would be an awful outcome if it results in handing Nancy Pelosi a chance to claim victory over Paul Ryan.

Let’s make a few things clear: This isn’t NY-23. Jane Corwin is not Dede Scozzafava; Corwin is ranked the second-most conservative member of the New York Assembly, based on her voting record. And furthermore, Jack Davis is no Doug Hoffman. Davis is a protectionist who ran three times for Congress as a Democrat.

The Tea Party Express, FreedomWorks and other major conservative organizations are backing Corwin.

JANE CORWIN FOR U.S. CONGRESS

PREVIOUSLY:

NY-26 Update: Tea Party Express Endorses Republican Jane Corwin

We are now just a week away from the special election in New York’s 26th District, and our Syracuse-area friend The Lonely Conservative reports:

The Tea Party Express showed up in the Rochester, NY area [Monday] to officially endorse Jane Corwin in the NY26 special election. They also denounced the fake Tea Party candidate Jack Davis.

State and local Tea Party activists joined with Amy Kremer of the Tea Party Express, who said: “Jack Davis is no more ‘Tea Party’ than Barack Obama. . . . Jack Davis is a phony who has run three times as a Democrat and has endorsed and supported Nancy Pelosi and Charlie Rangel.”

It is perhaps necessary to make mention of what should be obvious: The liberal media are trying to elect the Democrat, Kathy Hochul, by hyping Crazy Jack so that they can claim a Democrat win in NY-26 as a repudiation of the GOP’s conservative agenda. The New York Times:

Mr. Davis’s ascension comes as a race that had once seemed a certain Republican victory has become fiercely competitive because of a House Republican plan that calls for overhauling Medicare.

Read the whole thing, even thought it tells only part of the story, and tells it from a biased viewpoint. It’s bad that Paul Ryan has to defend himself against Newt Gingrich without Ryan also being scapegoate for the dysfunctional condition of the New York GOP establishment. However, if Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) can trick enough idiots into voting for Crazy Jack, that result will be headlined as evidence that the Paul Ryan budget plan is a political liability for Republicans.

The real question that will be decided May 24, however, is how many idiots there are in NY-26, besides Jack Davis and David Bellavia.

JANE CORWIN FOR U.S. CONGRESS

PREVIOUSLY: