Category: Debates

Rick Perry Has Replaced Jon Huntsman in the Coveted ‘Gov. Asterisk’ Position

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Marginal poll numbers, yet deemed debate-worthy:

According to CNN’s criteria for inclusion, a candidate must get at least 4th place in either Iowa or New Hampshire, or get 7% support in at least three national Republican or three South Carolina primary polls released in January. The requirements were posted online last Tuesday afternoon, several hours before the Iowa caucuses began later that night.
Perry came in fifth place in Iowa, and sixth in New Hampshire. And currently, his national and South Carolina poll numbers do not show him meeting that threshold, either.

Never mind, says CNN, they’re including Perry anyway.

Because to do otherwise would be . . . well, heartless.

Sunday Morning Coming Down in New Hampshire ‘Meet the Depressed’ Debate

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HOLLIS, N.H.
After my late night guzzling beer consulting with key sources at the Radisson Hotel bar last night, I slept in this morning at the home of Mike Rogers of Granite Grok, missing the “Meet the Press” debate. Mike’s got it TiVo’d for my later examination, but initial accounts indicate it was far more feisty than the ABC debate. Aaron Goldstein of The American Spectator:

Finally!!! Rick Santorum puts it point blank to Romney. If your record in Massachusetts was so great why didn’t you run for re-election? Why did you bail out? Santorum went to say that while Romney bailed, he was running on conservative principles and running in a state bluer than Massachusetts.

Goldstein also notes that Romney and Santorum were equally competent in handling the (evidently obligatory) gay “gotcha” question on NBC this morning. What explains the media’s obsession with gays? And why, to repeat a persistent question, are Republicans letting the Left moderate their debates? Does anyone remember the 2008 Democratic debate moderated by Michelle Malkin, Byron York and Michael Barone?

Amy Walter of ABC News offers explanations of why Saturday night’s debate lacked “fireworks,” but none of her explanations mention the incompetence or bias of the moderators.

UPDATE: In celebrating the Sunday-morning Romney-bashing, Philip Klein expresses a gloomy view of the race:

Had this all happened in September, we [might] be looking at a race where Perry had just won Iowa and was well ahead in South Carolina, while Huntsman was nipping at Romney in New Hampshire. But this isn’t September.
Instead, over the past several months, rivals hardly laid a glove on Romney. Perry had one disastrous debate performance after another and dropped like a rock in the polls. After a succession of candidates rose and fell, eventually Rick Santorum emerged as the leading conservative alternative to Romney. And Huntsman, boring and obnoxious in debates, never took off in New Hampshire. So what we’re left with is a situation in which Romney is so far ahead in his quest for the GOP nomination, that barring a major catastrophe, he’s unlikely to lose. In football terms, he’s in the prevent defense — able to surrender lots of yardage to his opponents in the middle of the field and still win as long as he doesn’t turnover the ball.

Being optimistic about the GOP requires enormous effort, but I will make the effort to disagree with Klein’s assessment.

It wouldn’t necessarily take a “major catastrophe” to derail Romney. If he gets less than 40% here in New Hampshire, that would reinforce doubts about The Man From Bain. This would be especially true if, despite the conventional wisdom about the Granite State’s putative hostility to social conservatives, Santorum overperforms to finish third or better Tuesday.

The rosy scenario would be that both of these things happen: If we’re sitting here Tuesday night looking at Mitt around 38%, while it’s “too close to call” for second place between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum in the vicinity of 18%, that could engender an important shift in perceptions. Romney would look weak going into South Carolina, and Santorum would continue to signal his momentum as the emerging “Not Mitt” conservative choice.

Oh, and bye-bye, Jon Huntsman, who I doubt will finish better than fifth in New Hampshire, the basket that holds all his eggs.

Santorum made a day-trip to South Carolina to campaign today. A pro-Santorum “super-PAC” is already advertising there.

UPDATE II: Jazz Shaw didn’t enjoy the NBC debate:

The Sunday morning event, hosted by NBC and Facebook, started off as nothing short of a disaster. The lead moderator, David Gregory, spent the opening segment doing nothing but firing off political talking points and trying to get the candidates to snipe at each other. Those of us following on Twitter noted that it was literally fifteen minutes into the debate before the first question on policy was asked, and even then it was only after Ron Paul chided Gregory over the unsubstantial nature of the topics.

When we were walking into the Radisson in Manchester last night, Gregory was leaving and — while I admit this may be my own prejudice talking — the dude seems to exude arrogance. Out on the campaign trail, most Big Name TV News Personalities try very hard not to act like they’re better than the rest of us. For example, Carl Cameron of Fox is very approachable and gregarious, and likewise Michael Barone is always happy to talk politics with anyone. But I can’t seem to remember ever seeing David Gregory just “hanging out” in the press gaggle.


POST-DEBATE SPIN ROOM

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MANCHESTER, N.H.
The Triumphant Victory of Rick Santorum™ was not acknowledged here at RINOCon — as I’ve dubbed the National Review Romney GroupHugFest — and that’s OK. We don’t expect these elite snobs to recognize such things.

Think about this: Santorum is the hot new “Not Romney” candidate and yet he was not attacked during the debate, except by Ron Paul. I expected Rick Perry to attack Santorum, and he didn’t. So I think not losing was a victory. But here at RINOCon — where the NR guys have gone totally squish — the failure to win was counted as a defeat.

Hey, I’ve seen the surge. Exactly how far that surge can go, I don’t know. But for the NR guys to declare pre-emptively that it is futile, and that we must therefore all cheerfully roll over for Romney, strikes me as the opposite of wisdom and the opposite of courage.

But that’s just me, and I’m feeling kind of cranky tonight. What the hell was this, the Big Gay Debate starring “Phil from Virginia”? Why are we letting George and Diane moderate a Republican debate? How drunk was Diane Sawyer tonight, huh?

Anyway, Donald Douglas at American Power has video and links. More at Fire Andrea Mitchell. Go ahead and add your opinion in the comments.

 

ABC NEW HAMPSHIRE DEBATE

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22:40 EST Perry: if not here, I’d be at a shooting range.
Newt, Rick, Mitt: watching football.
Paul: I’d put the family to bed and study an economic textbook.
Huntsman: talking to my two sons in the Navy.
Thus far:
The two Texans are not looking strong. Huntsman looks comfortable, but Mitt, Newt, and Santorum are doing well. I think Mitt has worked the hardest to combat perceptions about his candidacy.
22:35 EST Huntsman: oh sure, Mitt, start a trade war. Brilliant!
22:33 EST Mitt: oh Huntsman, dear, you were BHO’s little messenger boy for a couple years. I fear I shall have to offer to introduce you to my boom stick.
22:31 EST Huntsman: I know how to make trade work.
22:30 EST Mitt: I am not a DC insider. If you make that accusation again, I will use my boom stick.
22:28 EST Santorum: I declare war on class warfare. My arithmetic operator is multiplication, not division. I will appeal to blue collar workers, but don’t call that classifying them.
22:26 EST Newt: I’m sure that BHO is a sincere Commie. But the WSJ called Mitt’s plans ‘timid’.
22:25 EST Mitt: I’m a soul man. Dada duh da dadada. . .
22:24 EST Huntsman: I did something really weird and talked to an actual taxpayer. Frickin’ mindblowing. He wanted to manufacture something.
22:22 EST Perry: develop energy.
22:20 EST Paul: I am here to restore principles such as freedom. These people don’t understand economics. Cut spending. Do not be Japan. Understand the business cycle.
22:19 EST Mitt: I, too, have a flood of details.
22:17 EST Santorum: cut taxes.
22:16 EST Huntsman: to pay for infrastructure, reform the tax code. Simpson-Bowles would be accepted.
22:15 EST Newt: infrastructure should be shiny and new. Work on energy to pay down our debt and rebuild infrastructure.
22:13 EST Mitt: capitalism, not stimulus, is what we need to rebuild our infrastructure.
The story so far:
Perry and Huntsman are being ignored, Ron Paul hasn’t looked great, Mitt has stayed above the fray, attacking Stephanopoulis, Newt and Santorum have been solid.
Bonus points for Newt for the anti-Christian bigotry charge against the media. God have mercy upon the souls of these media ghouls. These Postmodern anti-Christs hate anyone who posits a Truth, unless Muslim.
22:04 EST Santorum: Paul, your policies would preclude having a Navy to rescue Iranian fishermen from pirates.
22:03 EST Paul: I think that actually declaring war would be a refreshing change.
22:02 EST Sawyer: can you prophesy exactly when you will deploy troops?
Newt: I don’t practice Santeria, I ain’t got no crystal ball.
22:01 EST Perry: I think we consult with the Iraq and consider re-deployment, before Iran moves back into Iraq not at a double time, not at the speed of sound, but Light Speed, gentlemen.
21:58 EST Santorum: as a result of Obama, we’ve been through the desert on a horse with no name. The commander-in-chief has got to step up to the plate.
21:57 EST Newt: let’s nuke the question, and look at the theater-wide problem from Libya to Pakistan. Let me pull a brand-Newt strategy from an undisclosed location.
21:56 EST Huntsman: dunno, the ‘Stan could end up a civil war.
21:56 EST Mitt: watch me gymnastically assume all positions on this issue.
21:54 EST Huntsman: the 90k troops left in the ‘Stan; sure, let’s draw down and leave some snake eaters.
21:53 EST Perry: I must now pile on the gay marriage issue. Fear my facts.
21:51 EST Ron Paul, are you going to be a third party spoiler?
Paul: I’m going to keep on twisting the knife, to drive my issues. You know, the overspending.
21:43 EST Diane Sawyer’s brain cell is overwhelmed to consider the Constitution. Can’t we think about gay marriage instead of that ancient, unintelligible document? Twice-divorced Newt, what say you?
Newt: I’ve got 5,000 words in my head.
Huntsman: civil unions are fair, but protect marriage.
Santorum, can you support gay adoption?
Santorum: marriage is a federal level issue.
Mitt, if you had a couple of homosexuals in your living room, would you kick them?
Mitt: I’m still protecting the symbol ‘marriage’.
Newt: hey, the bigotry is bi-directional, and the anti-Christian bigotry goes unreported. BRAVO!
21:42 EST Mitt wrecked Stephanopoulis on the birth control question. Paul makes the 4th Amendment case and hammers the Patriot Act.
21:40 EST Mitt: I must play the Newt card and accuse the banning of contraception to be a stupid question. I am not a Constitutionalist, but I stand next to one on stage (looks to Ron).
Summary thus far:

  • Ron Paul is going after Newt and Santorum, and mostly adding to his kook rating.
  • Santorum has acquitted himself well, as has Newt. Santorum’s riff on Paul’s microphone is the line of the night.
  • Perry played the outsider card.
  • Huntsman sounds polished.
  • Mitt is most interesting, trying to walk back the notion that the fix is in.

It’s fairly scrappy.

21:30 EST Paul: the real raaaaacism is in the judicial system, and drug laws, as well as military service.
21:27 EST Would Ron Paul double down on calling Newt a chickenhawk? Paul: sure, any of these non-serving chickenhawks are a pack of hawkish chickens. And the Constitution is being sadly ignored.
21:26 EST Chickenhawk Newt: I am not a chickenhawk. I am an Army brat, and I know what the military is about.
21:25 EST Perry: yeah, having served gives me an edge. ASIDE: Governors make precisely 0 decisions about federalized and deployed troops.
21:23 EST Romney: I must halt the knife fight and return the focus to #OccupyResoluteDesk. See me rise above the fray! ‘I will endorse our nominee’–Mitt admits he may not be it? Wow.
21:21 EST Huntsman: I got more vision than Lens Crafters, muffers. I will bring the CINC, the President, and the trust. Gimme.
21:20 EST Mitt Romney thought bubble: the Paul/Santorum sandwich is possibly the most uncomfortable position of my life.
21:18 EST Perry: that was 18 minutes of the problem, which you just heard: INSIDERS. With the exception of Huntsman, I’m the outsider here.
21:16 EST Paul: yeah, I voted for appropriations, but not not the spending.
21:16 EST Santorum: I stayed involved in causes like health care and coal that I care about.
21:15 EST Ron, you’ve got a vicious attack ad against Santorum. Can you defend it?
Ron: not with this microphone.
Santorum: well, it detects lying. But the Soros-funded CREW sues conservatives like Stacy McCain and DaTechGuy wear fedoras.
21:11 EST Would Governor Huntsman defend Mitt’s record at Bain? Is it a fair topic? Jon: yeah, we put Utah at #1 on the Billboard charts, so Rick and Mitt can bite my big 10′ record of a band that plays the blues.
21:09 EST Mitt: this is free enterprise. Oh, and don’t forget the Olympics.
21:08 EST Mitt: yeah, we had to get out the pliers and the blowtorch. But Zed’s dead, baby: Zed’s dead.
21:07 EST Newt, will you defend the NYT attack piece on Bain? Newt, nah, let Mitt do that.
21:06 EST Newt, your attack dogs brought the pain to Bain. Do you know these dogs?
21:05 EST Romney responds that people who have spent time in Washington don’t know the economy. Like that Santorum dude to my left.
21:04 EST Rick Santorum, do we need CEO Romney? Why, no: we need leadership. Was I attacking Mitt with the managerial riff? Why yes: yes, I was.
21:03 EST Mitt takes question #1 on jobs. Can he ooze some optimism? Yes, but he can use ‘tepid’ to describe the effects of Obamanomics. Roosters did not cause the sunrise.
21:02 EST Diane Sawyer reads the candidates the riot act, plus a color lesson. We am smart.
21:00 EST Introductory reel. They have successfully lowered our politics to the level of the WWF.
20:58 EST This obstacle course on Wipeout is great. I’m afraid I don’t recognize the candidate, but Newt is in trouble when it’s his turn.
PREVIOUSLY. . .

MANCHESTER, N.H.
Once again, it’s time for the Republican candidates to debate. Alas, Michele Bachmann is gone, and Jon Huntsman is here. To his lovely daughters, I say: I’m glad your Dad is going to lose, but it was a pleasure to meet you.

Some pre-debate headlines:

Rick Santorum to get
Gary Bauer endorsement Sunday
— Washington Post

NBC/Marist Poll: Romney has 20-point lead
in N.H.; Santorum gets Iowa bounce
— MSNBC

I’m going to be watching the debate here at the Radisson Hotel at a National Review event, where everyone seems to feel obligated to buy me beers. Expect increasingly incoherent updates.

UPDATE: My loyal sidekick Smitty has agreed to handle liveblogging duties, which will enable to collect all these free beers.

SIOUX CITY IOWA DEBATE TONIGHT

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Roundup:
Frank Luntz on the Hannity special edition:

Newt defined himeself as the Reagan conservative,
Mitt Romney, the private sector conservative,
Ron Paul, the civil liberties conservative,
Rick Santorum, the conviction conservative,
Jon Huntsman, the consistent conservative,
Michele Bachmann, the female conservative,
and my favorite is Rick Perry, the Tim Tebow conservative.

My ratings:

Rick Santorum: He sounded quite strong on foreign policy and all values.
Rick Perry: Perry sounded quite improved.
Mitt Romney: Really didn’t sound good on the internals of his Massachusetts tenure.
Newt Gingrich: Michele wrecked Newt on Freddy Mac.
Ron Paul: Ran aground in the Straights of Hormuz. I understood his reticence on judges, but the Progressive judges in the last century are as wrong as the Federal Reserve, Ron.
Michele Bachmann: She sounded calm and poised, and did the best job of going after Newt.
Jon Huntsman: A couple of good ideas. Should have served some Tea, but it’s too late.

Overall, I remain firmly committed to supporting the GOP candidate, plan to vote for Sarah Palin in the primaries, and hope that Newt, Mitt, Paul, and Jon don’t make it. I hope the ticket boils down to some combination of Santorum, Perry, and Bachmann.

22:55 p.m. ET (Smitty): Brett Baher: Rick Santorum, what about Reagan’s 11th Commandment?
Santorum: Vet the candidates.
Perry: Bring it.
Mitt: They’re nothing new. Focus on BHO.
Newt: I’ve rebutted attacks, but focused on solutions.
Paul: Let’s be responsible. We’re picking up the media slack. Focus on issues.
Michele: We’re exposing who can do the best against BHO.
Huntsman: Respectful debate breeds trust.

22:50 p.m. ET (Smitty): Chris Wallace: Michele Bachmann, what about pro life issues?
Bachmann: We. Must. Get. Life. Right. Gingrich didn’t defund Planned Parenthood when he had the chance.
Gingrich: Bachmann is daft. I have an overwhelming pro life record.
Bachmann: He’s supported partial birth abortion candidates.

22:46 p.m. ET (Smitty): Chris Wallace: Rick Santorum, what’s your take on Mitt’s response.
Santorum: Yeah, if you peak at the details, Governor Romney issued gay marriage licenses.
Wallace: Mitt?
Romney: No, I’m all about traditional marriage.

22:42 p.m. ET (Smitty): Chris Wallace: Mitt, do you like those Cafe Press flip flops?
Romney: My position on gay rights is missionary, and mercenary. I have been firmly pro-life all along.
Wallace: Are you sure that those flip-flops are a good fit?
Romney: Yes, do they make my toes look furry?

22:37 p.m. ET (Smitty): Chris Wallace: Huntsman, should the GOP pander to Hispanics?
Huntsman: We just need to be true to conservative values, but illegal immigration is down. Immigrants are an engine of growth.

22:38 p.m. ET (Smitty): Megyn Kelly: Newt, what say you?
Gingrich: I agree substantially with Mitt. But drop the anti-state lawsuits, remove federal aid to sanctuary cities, secure the border.

22:37 p.m. ET (Smitty): Megyn Kelly: Mitt, do you expect illegals to go home and get all their paperwork in order to return?
Mitt: I will give them a RomneyCard to keep them in line.

22:35 p.m. ET (Smitty): Megyn Kelly: Rick Santorum, is Holder correct that Republican’s are politicizing Fast and Furious?
Santorum: Cartels are training terrorists in Central- and South America. BHO wrong. Reset.

22:34 p.m. ET (Smitty): Megyn Kelly: Rick Perry, would you take Eric Holder’s scalp?
Rick Perry: I’d toss an attorney general such as holder under the bus like it’s my frickin’ job, Megyn.

22:28 p.m. ET (Smitty): Cavuto: Rick Perry, you’ve criticized Solyndra, but you signed a 2003 bill for a natural gas company.
Perry: today is the 200th anniversary of the Bill of Rights, including the 10th Amendment. So I’m all about letting states be competitive.

22:26 p.m. ET (Smitty): Cavuto: Michele Bachmann was the BP shutdown Bogus Policy?
Bachmann: BHO did no real investigation. Keystone XL is really important, BTW. BHO’s calculus is about his re-election, not policy.

22:24 p.m. ET (Smitty): Cavuto: Should we love Gaia or jobs.
Huntsman: Balancing act. We’ve got to quit shooting oil like heroine. We need alternatives like natural gas.

22:23 p.m. ET (Smitty): Cavuto: Newt, should the GOP get Zany about the XL pipeline?
Newt: The POTUS should use the XL pipeline to crush the OPEC threat, not pander to Lefty environmentalists?
Cavuto: AFTQ.
Newt: Vote it in and break it off in #OccupyResoluteDesks booty.

22:20 p.m. ET (Smitty): Baher: Perry, should we throw cereal at Sryia?
Rick Perry: I’ve called for a no fly zone, and I will enumerate BHO foreign policy gaffes, and pray I don’t drop one.

22:17 p.m. ET (Smitty): Baher: Huntsman, what say you?
Huntsman: I want a foreign policy that is based upon a good economy.

22:16 p.m. ET (Smitty): Baher: Newt, can you quote something historical for us?
Newt: Yeah, Israel is under rocket attacks.

22:15 p.m. ET (Smitty): Baher: Paul, are you dangerous?
Ron Paul: I’m too broke to be dangerous. Wage peace, muffers. Declare war when you need to.
Bachmann: The IAEA report points out that this is a weak response.
Ron Paul: No UN Report says such. This is nothing in comparison to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Chill!

22:12 p.m. ET (Smitty): Baher: Michele Bachmann, we’re pulling out of Iraq today. Dangerously stupid, or stupidly dangerous?
Bachmann: I’ll go with fools and knaves for ignoring the Iranian plan. Ron Paul is dangerous.

22:09 p.m. ET (Smitty): Baher: Mitt Romney, was the President totally metrosexual to ask for the drone back from the Iranians?
Mitt Romney: Yeah, that was as limp wristed as it gets. American century. Peace through superior firepower, muffers.

22:07 p.m. ET (Smitty): Baher: Rick Santorum, Iran has been supplying terrorists against us. How are we responding.
Rick Santorum: Yeah, Iran has been at war with us. Sorry Ron, they hate us. We should go all Spec Ops on Iran with the Israelis.

10:04 p.m. ET (Smitty): Foreign Policy. Ron Paul. Iran may be a year off. Say you had solid intel about Iran. You’d remove sanctions?
Ron Paul: I’d run with the American people. I’ll play the UN card: they have no evidence on Iran. It’s another war buildup. I fear over-reaction.
Baher: Say you had solid intel. Still pull back sanctions.
Ron Paul: Hey man, sympathy for the devil. They just want respect. It makes more sense to work with people. No war.
Baher: One more time. Say they blockade Hormuz?
Ron Paul: Well, we’re teasing them into doing it. Sanctions are an overreach. We will launch doves.

Welcome, Instapundit readers!

9:58 p.m. ET (Smitty): Megyn Kelly: who is the best justice?
The conservative justices get kudos. From all but Paul. Ron Paul likes/dislikes them all. He made the point of the split on personal liberty and economic liberty, and how the SCOTUS has screwed the whole discussion.

9:55 p.m. ET (Smitty): Megyn Kelly: Mitt Romney, you sure nominated a fistful of Dems when you were a governor. Whaddup?
Mitt: yeah, I had to play the game. Congressional oversight over justices is a dodgy idea. We can impeach judges. Tools exist already.

9:54 p.m. ET (Smitty): Megyn Kelly: Ron Paul, is this too much?
Ron Paul: let’s hold our horses. Might lead to trouble if the Congress goes judging judges.

9:51 p.m. ET (Smitty): Megyn Kelly: Michele Bachmann, should we trash the 9th Circuit?
Bachmann: we need to have the separation of powers restored. Go Iowa! for scuttling the 3 justices over the marriage issue. Original intent!

9:49 p.m. ET (Smitty): Megyn Kelly: Newt, your Court plan is really tough. Is it too much?
Gingrich: Newt.org has a paper about how we need to liquidate judges who attack American Exceptionalism. I will make the Judiciary lay by its dish. Historians may have a better grip on the picture than lawyers.

9:48 p.m. ET (Smitty): Mitt Romney: let the markets figure out where the jobs will grow. Manufacturing, high tech, and energy are it. I promise an American Century.

9:45 p.m. ET (Smitty): Rick Santorum, we need to let money return to the U.S. to rebuild industry. Cut corporate tax. I will snuff every BHO regulation with extreme prejudice.

9:43 p.m. ET (Smitty): Governor Huntsman, can you fix China? Sure, invite dissidents to dinner. Let’s share us some values.

9:42 p.m. ET (Smitty): Rick Perry goes after Newt Gingrich’s confusion on the difference between lobbying and influence. Part time Congress, like in Texas, balanced budget amendment.

9:41 p.m. ET (Smitty): Ron Paul sounded great on earmarks.

9:38 p.m. ET (Smitty): Newt, did you waffle on the ‘right wing social engineering’ bit on Press the Meat?
Gingrich: Look, I have to go all Reagan here to be a great communicator. I must kiss up to Mitt to get him to soak up some heat.
Romney: We’ve really got to do it for the kids.

9:35 p.m. ET (Smitty):
Ron, do you buy Newt’s noise?
Paul: GSE is neither fish nor fowl. This bunk leads to fascism.
Newt, what do you say?
Gingrich: Hey, lots of other people do the same thing, and it wasn’t lobbying.
Michele, are you smelling what Newt is stepping in?
Bachmann: Quite whiffy. He’s tainted.
Newt, can you refute?
Gingrich: I can slice the facts anyway you like.
Michele?
Bachann: He took 1.6 million.
Newt?
Gingrich: I did not have sex with the definition of ‘lobbyist’. And I will kill Fanny & Freddy if they are too politically painful.

9:29 p.m. ET (Smitty):
Newt, GSEs have lined your wallet, and you’ve supported them. Are you Michael Moore without a ballcap?
Gingrich: look at the full picture. I was in private enterprise. Habitat for Humanity. Love me.

9:28 p.m. ET (Smitty) DC Culture:
Mitt, are you vulnerable to charges of being a capitalist meanie?
Romney: it sucks if you were on the receiving end, but if you look at the bigger picture, we’re better under capitalism. How did BHO do as dictator of Government Motors?

9:20 p.m. ET (Smitty): 30 second government shutdown responses:
Santorum: Motivate people with a righteous narrative.
Perry: 3 years OJT, BHO AFU. Stupor committee is a leadership joke.
Mitt: If I could drive an 80% Dem legislature in Mass. Leadership, muffers: I speak it.
Newt: The Saul Alinksy leadership is killing us. I know better.
Paul:We’ve got to cut this Leviathan down.

9:12 p.m. ET (Smitty): Rick Perry: your debate stack-ups are of Indy 500 proportions. Perry: I will have Tebow coach me to victory.

9:11 p.m. ET (Smitty): Michele Bachmann: can you capture the cross-eyed twenty-something barista demographic? MB: why yes, if I can pick them up in Minn, then I can do it elsewhere.

9:10 p.m. ET (Smitty): Mitt and his hair serve up some hope and change. Mentioning his whole resume without the Bain Capitol.

9:09 p.m. ET (Smitty): Megyn goes to Santorum. Will you douse yourself in gasoline and set yourself on fire to get your campaign going? Rick Santorum plays the political AND personal life cards. Go, Rick!

9:06 p.m. ET (Smitty): Megyn goes to Paul. Can you win the nomination, and if not, will you guarantee not to sandbag the nominee? Paul contrasts himself nicely with the others.

9:05 p.m. ET (Smitty): Newt. Who says I am not pretty, conservative? And I’ve got facts at my fingertips, too.

9:04 p.m. ET (Smitty): Newt I am the master debater!

9:03 p.m. ET (Smitty): First question to Newt. Can you guarantee nothing will go wrong if you’re nominated? Newt plays the Reagan card. Electability!

9:01 p.m. ET (Smitty): Brett paints a grim picture of the world situation. Electability. Is that tonight’s codeword?

9:00 p.m. ET (Smitty): Brett Baher still doesn’t look old enough to be on TV. They’re all on stage, saving the walk on time. Huntsman is back!

PREVIOUSLY (8:20 p.m. ET)
***

Just 19 days until the crucial Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, and the final pre-caucus debate in the Hawkeye State is at 9 p.m. ET on Fox News:

SIOUX CITY, Iowa – It’s been 32 weeks since the first Republican presidential debate. Since then, a changing cast of contenders has faced off a dozen times across the country with millions watching at home.
Of the original combatants from that May 5 meeting in Greenville, S.C., only two, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, remain. There have been four lead changes in national polls, two candidates drop out, four candidates join the field and billions of pixels poured out by reporters and pundits trying to make sense of it all.
Tonight, that all culminates here on the western edge of Iowa with the 13th showdown — the last chance for candidates to make their cases before voters start the process of picking a presidential nominee. Even in a cycle that has been shaped by televised debates like no other, the stakes for the candidates this evening are enormous.

The tension in the Sioux City Convention Center tonight is reportedly so extreme that Republicans in the audience have chewed their fingernails to bloody nubs, and the candidates are washing down Xanax with whiskey just to be able to calm their stress-strained nerves.

The Fate of the Free World hinges on what will transpire on that stage tonight, and here are some headlines that capture the dramatic political landscape on which will be fought the struggle destined to be known as Armageddon in the Heartland:

Iowa: Romney 23%, Gingrich 20%, Paul 18%
— Rasmussen Reports

Gingrich Momentum Slows, Polls Suggest
— New York Times

Mitt Romney’s life as a poor Mormon
missionary in France questioned
— U.K. Telegraph

Newt Gingrich shows signs of slide in Iowa
— Politico

“Something Incredibly Stupid”
— Andrew Sullivan

What Sully said, if you must know, was that Chris Wallace should recuse himself as moderator of tonight’s debate because Wallace said something bad about Ron Paul, and therefore is not “objective.” And if there is one thing that Andrew Sullivan insists on, it is that journalists must be completely objective — although no one could ever aspire to being as objective as Andrew Sullivan.

Anyway: Smitty will be liveblogging here — even though he’s kinda upset that I offered to sell him to a Las Vegas billionaire — and we’ll have updated reactions from all over. Commenters are welcome to add their objective observations about tonight’s proceedings. That is, if you’re not so distraught by the extreme tension that you’ve completely chewed off your fingers before it begins.

Just to help settle your nerves: Christina Hendricks and whiskey. Objectively speaking, I didn’t much notice the whiskey. IYKWIMAITYD.


Hey, Mitt Romney: Bet Me $10,000 I Won’t Post This Vintage Pinup Girl

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Ha, ha! You lose!

Lots of fallout today over last night’s debate, in which Mitt Romney offered Rick Perry a $10,000 bet that Mitt’s book did not include a call for nationalizing RomneyCare. The video:

Lisa Graas reminds us that Mitt reportedly spent $45 million of his own money on his failed 2008 bid for the Republican nomination, and Lisa also provides this quote from Everybody’s Favorite Candidate:

“Well that is a lot of money for me . . . I don’t go around throwing around $10,000 bets.”
— Rick Santorum

Kathie Obradovich of the Des Moines Register:

Romney was casually offering the equivalent of about one-fifth of the average median income for an Iowa family. Romney’s privileged background was driven home later when the candidates were asked whether they’d ever had to cut costs in their own family budget.
“I didn’t grow up poor,” Romney said, and noted that if voters are looking for someone who did, they’ll have to vote for somebody else.

This is really unfortunate: Class warfare as an issue in a Republican primary? I don’t like it. However, it does effectively highlight one of Mitt’s tactical weaknesses — a weakness that the Democrats and media (but I repeat myself) would love to exploit in the general election campaign. It’s not necessarily about Mitt’s wealth, but about his tone-deafness to such sensitivities in a year when economic hardship and populist sentiment will be major political forces.

You know what would be nice? It would be nice if the Romney campaign would drop a few bills on some conservative bloggers.

Maybe not on me — the Future Ambassador to Vanuatu isn’t offering to sell out — but I’d bet $10,000 my buddy Jimmie Bise Jr. of Sundries Shack fame could be persuaded to provide some of that “New Media strategy” advice for Team Romney. Because in case you didn’t realize it, I’m once again stealing Jimmie’s “Clearing the Browser Tabs” idea to do a round-up of random links:

Oh, and that vintage pinup girl? Not entirely gratuitous, because I’m also trying to hitch a ride.

Remember that I am planning to depart for Iowa the day after Christmas, Dec. 26. I’ve already bought my ticket to Cedar Rapids ($275) and then a ticket from Des Moines to Boston ($205) on Jan. 5, but there are still other expenses to be covered on my 36-day campaign-trail trip all the way to Florida on Jan. 31. Your contributions to the Shoe Leather Fund are earnestly solicited.

ABC Iowa Debate Reaction Roundup UPDATE: Jennifer Rubin, WTF?

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UPDATE 12:45 a.m.: Several people — including Melissa Clouthier, Dan Riehl, Ace of Spades and William Jacobson — were expressing outrage on Twitter at the way the Washington Post‘s Jennifer Rubin scored the debate:

Winners: Bachmann, Santorum, Perry — and because they can take steam out of Gingrich and he demonstrated a superior temperament, Romney too was a winner
Losers: Gingrich (who did himself no good and some harm) and Diane Sawyer (who sounded as if she were addressing a kindergarten class).

Rubin stands accused of being in the tank for Romney. Maybe he promised her the coveted ambassadorship to Vanuatu.

UPDATE 1:40 a.m. ET: Just checking around, trying to find anyone besides Rubin who scored this debate a loss for Gingrich and a win for Romney. No luck so far.

The Romney people are trying to spin Mitt’s $10,000 bet as something other than a gaffe. Good luck with that. And while I was looking for Santorum’s reaction to the $10,000 bet, I came across the snarky liberal Charles Pierce at Esquire:

Iowa Debate: Newt Knocks
Mitt’s Glass Jaw to the Floor

Now, I ask you: Does a liberal have any reason to overrate Newt’s performance? I don’t think so. And therefore I think it’s safe to say that, in terms of Saturday’s front-runner showdown, Newt beat Mitt. But something else Pierce wrote caught my eye:

Hell, who knows what impact Rick Santorum’s actually made out in the hinterlands where he’s been spending his time? All bets are off, I’m thinking.

Which is exactly right: If old-fashioned retail politics means anything at all in Iowa — and informed people insist it does — Santorum should out-perform his poll numbers.

* * * PREVIOUSLY (11:02 p.m. ET) * * *

ABC News is scoring this as a victory for Newt Gingrich.

UPDATE: During the debate, Michele Bachmann’s campaign issued a series of press releases with these headlines:

K-Street Gingrich: Washington Insider,
Crony Capitalist, Unreliable Conservative
— 9:35 p.m. ET

“Newt Romney” on the Individual Heath Insurance Mandate
— 9:55 p.m. ET

“Newt Romney” on Global Warming and Cap-and-Trade
— 10:05 p.m. ET

“Newt Romney” Supported the TARP Bailout
for Big Wall Street Banks
— 10:20 p.m. ET

UPDATE II: Des Moines Register:

Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum promised Saturday night to “zero out” taxes on manufacturing firms, reduce burdensome regulations and to encourage the availability of affordable energy to help create more factory jobs in small towns and rural America.
“We want ‘Made in the USA’ to be the moniker for my administration,” the Pennsylvania Republican told an audience at the ABC News/Des Moines Register GOP presidential candidate debate at Drake University. . . .
Santorum also said he stands out among the candidates as a “consistent conservative” who has a proven record of success in Congress.
“I fought and won,” he said, referring to his work on welfare reform and pro-life and pro-family issues in the Senate, as well as national security issues such as sanctions on Iran.
Santorum told how he was part of the “Gang of Seven” and succeeded in implementing legislative reforms while serving in the minority in the House.
“We figured out a way to win, even though we were in the minority,” Santorum said.

UPDATE III: McClatchy Syndicate:

DES MOINES, Iowa — Republicans threw everything they could at Newt Gingrich in a fiery debate Saturday night, increasingly desperate to stop his momentum toward the 2012 presidential nomination in the final weeks before voting starts in less than 4 weeks.
The former speaker of the House of Representatives responded with a combination of laughs and a steely determination not to let the charges go unanswered, particularly from chief rival Mitt Romney.
The spirited, two-hour debate was the first since Gingrich shot to the lead in polls in Iowa, prompting a round of challenges to his record as a Washington insider, his well-paid consulting work for the semi-federal mortgage agency Freddie Mac, his marital infidelities, and his recent statement that the Palestinians are an “invented” people.

UPDATE IV: Press release from the Santorum campaign:

SANTORUM STANDS ABOVE THE FRAY, STANDS TALL FOR CONSERVATISM, AND SHOWS HE IS THE ONE CANDIDATE READY TO BE TRUSTED AS COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF

Des Moines, IA – Tonight, Republican Presidential Candidate Rick Santorum showed he was above the fray, the adult in the room, and the one candidate ready to lead the United States from day-one.
Hogan Gidley, National Communications Director, said: “Rick Santorum was the one candidate who stayed above the fray – answering the questions asked by outlining conservative solutions to the issues facing average Americans. Rick’s momentum is undeniable and he’s proving every day that he’s a man you can trust to be the Commander in Chief. His record matches his rhetoric – Rick has consistently fought for conservatism and Rick has consistently won for conservatism. Rick’s the real deal and the country got to see that tonight.”

SANTORUM SAID:

On Distinguishing Job Creation Plan:
“I was just visiting Fremont County where they just lost hundreds of jobs from a ConAgra plant. Instances like that are why Governor Branstad and Lt. Governor Reynolds held a manufacturing forum in Pella, because the heartland of America is suffering. During my lifetime we’ve gone from 21% of people employed in manufacturing down to 9% today. Small town America is hurting. We need a plan to revitalize manufacturing, which is why I have called for the elimination of the corporate tax on manufacturers, repealing the bevy of regulations of the Obama Administration, and lower energy costs… I will not give you a jobs number, because government doesn’t create jobs. I don’t believe you can have a top down mentality. You create the petri dish and I don’t need a government bean counter to tell me how many jobs we’re going to create.”

On Being A Consistent Conservative and Winning:
“This is not about what you say at the debate. In 1994, I was not supporting an individual mandate. I authored Medical Savings Accounts because I believe in a bottom up approach and I have never strayed. The record is important and what the question is was who is a consistent conservative. I would agree with Michele, but she’s been fighting and losing. I have been fighting and won. I won and passed Welfare Reform. I was the leader on pro-life and pro-family issues. I went out and fought on national security, and imposed sanctions on Iran. I was there in good times and in bad. I was there, I led, and I won… I was in the minority and along with Jim Nussle we formed the Gang of Seven, and we won. We exposed the House Banking scandal and sent the Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee to jail. We figured out how to win, even though we were in the minority.”

On Fidelity:
“Character counts, all of your record – personal and political. I would not say it is a disqualifier, people make mistakes, and people should hold you accountable. You are electing a leader, trust is everything, particularly in this election. I hear this all the time in Iowa, who can we trust? I have been married for 21 years, I have seven children. I have been consistent and I talk about my past.”

On Israel/Palestine Dispute:
“You must speak the truth, but do so with prudence. We are in a real life situation, not an academic exercise. We need to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our ally. We need to be working with the Israeli’s, because they have the right to determine what they do with their land – and the West Bank is their land.”

On His Upbringing and Family:
“I grew up in a modest home, and I was blessed with a mom and a dad who made the little things feel like luxuries. Today we see the family breaking down. Single parent households have poverty approaching 40%. Single moms are doing heroic work, but it’s tough. We need to elevate the institution of marriage and the family. The most important luxury is a mom and a dad.”

One Bringing People Together and An Opponent:
“I listened to Newt’s (GOPAC) tapes as a young man and he laid out a vision for conservative governance. I ran in a tough environment. In 1990, I ran and won, and when I won, the Wall Street Journal called the RNC and the RNC didn’t even know my name. In 2000, I won re-election in Pennsylvania in the same year that President Bush lost by 5%, I won by 6%. I’ve run as a conservative and won, I stuck by conservative principles.”

UPDATE V: The real winner tonight? Bill Quick, who supports syphilitic camel Newt Gingrich.

UPDATE VI: Katie Obradovich of the Des Moines Register:

Paul had a particularly good debate, although he probably won’t get much credit for it from the national media. It’s hard to fathom why he’s not more of a target – -he’s running second in the polls of Iowa caucusgoers. He’s running an attack ad against Gingrich and repeated his claims the former speaker is a hypocrite. Yet, both Perry and Romney praised Paul when asked what they’ve learned from other candidates during this race.