Ellen Carmichael Out, J.D. Gordon In as Cain Campaign Communications Chief

UPDATE (Oct. 6): “Storm Center: J.D. Gordon Takes Charge as Herman Cain Communications Director”

** PREVIOUSLY (6:36 p.m. ET, Oct. 1) **

I knew this last night but was sworn to secrecy, as it wasn’t supposed to be announced until Monday: Ellen Carmichael is leaving Herman Cain’s campaign as communications director. She will be replaced by a former Defense Department public affairs officer, J.D. Gordon.

CNN got the scoop today, because I don’t burn my sources. I’d rather get scooped than betray a confidence.

UPDATE: Shannon Travis of CNN is a friend of Ellen’s, as are a couple of other reporters who, like me, must be kicking themselves for not reporting the story yesterday when they had the chance. Travis’s story has most of what Ellen was willing to tell me — as one friend to another — last night. But the part about J.D. Gordon (and some other relevant info) I’ll have to get in the next update.

UPDATE II: First things first, according to the Cain campaign’s second-quarter FEC report, Ellen Carmichael was paid $22,628.49 for the three months ending June 30. Do the math, and that’s about $90,000 a year. (UPDATE: This estimate is wrong; see third update below.) It’s damn good money for someone just out of college and (not to put too fine a point on it) more than I’ve ever earned in any of my 25 years as a journalist. However . . .

The campaign hired on New Media director Michael Johnson, who was paid $21,674.70 during the second quarter — nearly equal to what they paid Carmichael, who has worked for Cain nearly a year. You can go down the list of other Cain staff salaries and ask yourself whether the Director of Communications was paid what such an important job title would suggest, relative to other members of the staff.

This is not to say that Carmichael quit over money, however. She didn’t even mention that in her conversation with me. I just happened to notice it today while I was reporting on Cain’s third-quarter fundraising.

However, the news that the campaign had hired Gordon to be Carmichael’s boss — dude, think about that. And I’m guessing Gordon’s salary will be more than $90,000 a year. IYKWIMAITYD.

UPDATE III: I’m told that some people are trying to claim Ellen was fired or “let go,” which is false. And I’m also told that my estimate of Carmichael’s salary is wrong. The figure reported on the second-quarter FEC report was actually retroactive until January, so that her annualized salary was closer to $45,000.

Having first met Herman Cain when I interviewed him in 2007, and being one of the first to cover his campaign in December, I know a lot more about what’s gone on with the “Cain Train” than I can report. Because (a) I don’t burn my sources, and (b) there’s a much greater chance of Herman Cain becoming president than most pundits and “experts” are able to see or willing to admit.

It’s important to say that Ellen Carmichael is leaving the Cain campaign on amicable terms and is still an admirer of Herman Cain. This was also true, however, of several people in Iowa to whom I spoke when I spent the entire Fourth of July weekend getting the backstory on a round of staff resignations in late June:

Charlie Gruschow called Tuesday, eager to clarify the terms of his departure from the staff of Herman Cain’s Republican presidential campaign in Iowa. “I have tremendous respect for Herman Cain,” said Gruschow, founder of the Des Moines Tea Party and one of the earliest backers of the Atlanta businessman’s effort in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. Gruschow re-affirmed his support for Cain’s candidacy but resigned his staff position because, as he says he told the campaign’s chief of staff Mark Block in a meeting last week, “my heart’s not in this anymore.”
By “this,” Gruschow meant the day-to-day business of campaign operations, which have been hampered in Iowa by conflicts involving some former Cain staffers. . . .

And who was quoted in that story?

Cain’s spokeswoman Ellen Carmichael called the personnel changes “growing pains” in a campaign that went from its official launch May 21 to a second-quarter fundraising total of nearly $2.5 million (and third place in the Des Moines Register poll) in less than two months.

You can read the whole thing. When she gave me the “growing pains” line, I told her, “Don’t spin me, Ellen,” but she was swearing on a stack of Bibles that this was just a minor speed-bump on the road to victory. And she assures me now that she still has the highest regard for Herman Cain, and the fondest hopes for the campaign’s future success, but felt that it was time for her to pursue other opportunities.

I’ll be back to deal with this story in a little bit, but I’ve got to go get some food right now, because the Alabama game comes on in about a half-hour. Roll Tide!

UPDATE IV: Dan Collins at The Conservatory:

My guess is that as Cain has become a top tier candidate, the pressure on him to get more experienced campaigners has grown. I imagine that at certain points this has meant that Ellen (whom I know only from Twitter) has gotten her toes stepped on, and got them stepped on one times too many. There’s also been the usual backbiting through the usual channels, with people saying that Romney’s campaign is better than he is, Perry’s is as good as he is, and Cain’s is worse than he is. I imagine that kind of back-channel criticism wore her down, too.

Which is a pretty damned good guess, really. This kind of stuff is routine in political campaigns, and the reason you don’t see staff resignations from the Romney campaign is (a) his people have been with him for years, and (b) Romney’s got more money than God, so if somebody gets shoved aside, they’re kept on the payroll anyway.

Ali Akbar at Tea Party Brew has an interesting story, making reference to “underlying tensions.” True enough, but has there ever been a presidential campaign that didn’t have “underlying tensions”? BTW, it was a phone call from Ali that informed me that CNN had broken the story that I’d been sitting on for about 18 hours.

Don Surber points out Gordon’s background:

Gordon is a big snag for Team Cain as he has been a contributing columnist and commentator to Fox News, The Washington Times, Human Events and Capital Insider. Since leaving the Pentagon, Gordon has been a Senior Fellow and Communications Consultant to several Washington-DC based think tanks, including Atlas Economic Research Foundation, Americas Forum, Atlantic Bridge, Center for Security Policy and the Liberty & Freedom Foundation.

Surber throws a couple of shots at Ellen, which is rather unfair. She joined Team Cain early last fall when the candidate was “Herman Who?” She leaves with the candidate now ranked third and poised the challenge the front-runners. Ain’t no shame in her game.

Speaking of the game: Florida scored first to take a 7-0 lead over Alabama. But the Tide just got a first down at the Florida 14. Roll Tide!

UPDATE V: The Examiner‘s Jonathan Gerhke tries to suggest that the Cain campaign is “fractured,” which is no more true today than it was a month ago or three months ago. Go back to something Cain told me in December: “”We are going to run a bottoms-up, outside-the-box campaign.”

The outside-the-box quality of the Cain campaign has manifested itself, at times, as missed opportunities due to inexperienced staff. In August, David Drucker of National Journal wrote an article about Cain’s staff that ended with a quote from an anonymous GOP operative: “Why run a campaign with amateurs?”

Good point, but then when Cain brings a pro like Gordon, this is portrayed as bad news for Cain. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

But let me remind you of something: The experts counted Cain out before he ever started. When he won the South Carolina debate, the experts said it was a fluke. After he placed fourth at Ames, the experts figured he was doomed. And as recently as Sept. 21, none of the experts gave Cain a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the Florida straw poll.

The experts keep saying Cain can’t win and yet, somehow, he keeps proving them wrong. Kind of a pattern there.

Trent Richardson just scored a TD. Bama 10, Florida 10. Roll Tide!

UPDATE VI: Stuff that pisses me off: At 6:23 p.m. ET, I was the first to report that J.D. Gordon would replace Carmichael.

Two hours later — about 8:30 ET — Fox News mentioned Gordon’s hiring at the end of their story. And then when UPI picks it up: “J.D. Gordon will take over as campaign spokesman, Fox News reported.”

See? No respect. Twenty-five years in the business it took me to become the Rodney Dangerfield of American political journalists.

Now in the 2nd quarter, it’s Alabama 24, Florida 10. Roll Tide!

UPDATE VII: University of Alabama alumnus Alex Pappas reports:

Carmichael, a Louisiana native who has a reputation for being well-liked by members of the press, began working for Cain in April of 2010. She also worked for his company, T.H.E. New Voice, and Cain’s exploratory committee before he jumped into the race.
In an email, J.D. Gordon, a foreign policy adviser to Cain who is also now Cain’s chief campaign spokesman, said “Carmichael decided to pursue other opportunities” and that they “appreciate her service to the campaign.”

That Carmichael was “well-liked by members of the press” is true, and the biggest challenge for Gordon will be building relationships with political reporters, none of whom know him from his Pentagon work. Gordon’s reputation in military and foreign policy circles, however, should prove to be a valuable asset for Cain.

Herman Cain Rhymes With Hurricane: Fund-Raising Surges in Third Quarter

The buzz coming from the Herman Cain campaign is that they will be the only presidential campaign — including Obama and GOP front-runner Mitt Romney — whose third-quarter fund-raising numbers are better than their second-quarter numbers. (A quarter-to-quarter comparison is not possible for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who did not launch his campaign until midway through the third quarter.)

Cain raised slightly more than $2 million in the second quarter, according to official FEC reports, and the Atlanta businessman’s campaign had been heading toward a disappointing third-quarter result until experiencing a powerful surge in late September. Cain’s strong performance in debates Sept. 12 in Tampa and Sept. 22 in Orlando, followed by his shocking upset win in the Sept. 24 Florida GOP straw poll, ignited a massive influx of online contributions.

Most of Cain’s third-quarter total will be from small donors (less than $200), and more than $1 million of the quarterly total will have been raised in the last 10 days of September. Traffic to Cain’s Web page at times has been so heavy that several supporters have left comments on the candidate’s Facebook page in recent days complaining that they can’t get through to make online donations. While the campaign was coping with the phenomenal surge, a fund-raising e-mail sent Friday to Cain’s supporters boasted of the candidate’s success in attracting small donors.

“Other candidates are raising thousands of dollars from a few people. Herman Cain is raising a few dollars from thousands of people,” consultant Brad Marston wrote in the e-mail (full text below) sent shortly before last night’s midnight deadline for the second-quarter FEC report.

Cain’s appearance late Friday on “The Tonight Show” with Jay Leno will likely help carry over his third-quarter momentum into October. The next major event for in the see-saw GOP campaign is an Oct. 18 debate in Las Vegas, sponsored by the Western Republican Leadership Conference and televised on CNN.

* * * * * * *

TEXT OF CAIN FUND-RAISING E-MAIL

Date: Fri, Sep 30, 2011 at 6:14 PM
Subject: Herman Cain – What a week we’re having!
September 30, 2011
Dear [NAME] —
What a week we are having! After Mr. Cain’s great performance at the Fox News Debate, his impressive win at the Florida P5 Straw Poll and news reports showing he is clearly in the top tier of candidates, he is having his best fundraising week ever!
But we’re not done yet! The 3rd Quarter fundraising deadline is only hours away!
President Obama, Mitt Romney and other candidates are playing the expectations game, saying they will raise less money than last quarter. Herman Cain doesn’t play games. He works for and expects success!
This is the final Five Dollar Friday for the quarter. Please join me in donating at least $5 to Herman Cain today!
Other candidates are raising thousands of dollars from a few people. Herman Cain is raising a few dollars from thousands of people who like you, support his Common Sense Solutions! In fact, we are within 1500 donations of having MORE donors than last quarter and quite possibly EXCEEDING our past fundraising totals!
If you have donated recently or simply can’t afford another donation in these challenging economic times, please consider forwarding this email to your friends and family.
Thank you.

Brad Marston
Partner
FourTier Strategies, LLC

http://arealleader.hermancain.com/
PS. Donations must be received by midnight tonight EDT to count towards Herman Cain’s 3rd Quarter fundraising totals. Please donate now!

RECENTLY:


Santorum Returns to Iowa

Thanks to Florida (“the Evil State”) we may be  just three months from the Iowa caucuses, and Rick Santorum is going back to the Hawkeye State this weekend for a three-day campaign swing that includes this:

Sunday, October 2:
1:00pm CT: Senator Santorum will take part in a 1870s style baseball game at Living History Farms in Urbandale, IA. Prior to the game, Senator Santorum will visit the small church erected on the site in commemoration of where Pope John Paul II preached to Iowans during his 1979 visit.

Ah, the Pope — say, does anybody know what percent of Iowa GOP caucus-goers are Catholic? Because I kinda think that might matter.

BREAKING: WH Names ObamaCare Litigator For SCOTUS Challenge

by Smitty

U.S. News reports that the White House is flexing its muscle to bring ObamaCare to the Supreme Court sooner rather than later:

The government could have dragged its feet in appealing to the Supreme Court—the final deadline to file was actually November, and it also could have asked for a full court review from the 11th Circuit since the case was decided by a three-judge panel (though the conservative court was unlikely to return a better verdict)—but experts say filing now displays the administration’s assurance, and any delay tactics might have been exploited by Republicans as cowardly. “If you don’t think you have a winning hand, then sometimes it makes sense to see if the landscape changes,” says Ian Millhiser, a constitutional and judiciary analyst with the left-leaning Center for American Progress. “They clearly think, if they are going to pull the trigger now, that they stand to gain from pulling the trigger.”

This blog, through non-existent sources, has obtained the identity of the lead lawyer on the White House team:

No, Sarah Palin Did Not Call Herman Cain ‘Herb’ and Did Not Put Him Down
UPDATE: Why Doesn’t the Fox News Transcript Match the Politico Video?

Somebody told me that Herman Cain was asked about this on CBS News and said Governor Palin was “wrong,” evidently based on media reports. But let’s go to the transcript, shall we?

VAN SUSTEREN: How does, though, a politician, though, connect with the people and get it across so it doesn’t just sound like more like, Blah, blah, blah? When the politician gets up on the air, probably many of us can sort of mouth the answers for the politician because we know these people for better, for worse, so well, and that they’re going to say. It’s quite predictable.
But how does a politician actually connect with someone in the heartland, for instance?
PALIN: That’s a great question. I think what helps is for that politician is to have a foundation of having come from the real people of America, the working class, those who make up the majority of Americans who are so extremely concerned about the direction of our country.
Take Herman Cain. Look at why he’s doing so well right now. He’s, I guess you could say, with all due respect, the flavor of the week because Herman Cain is the one up there who doesn’t look like he’s part of that permanent political class. Herman Cain — he came from a working class family. He’s had to make it on his own all these years. We respect that.
That has an automatic connection with the electorate, where we say, We can relate to him, he knows the issues, the problems that we face every day, and he’s determined to do something about it. He’s not elite. He doesn’t seem to allow us to be disenchanted with what it is that he’s proposing because what he proposes in terms of solutions, Greta, for our economy, are based on time-tested truths and common sense and true economic principles that will work.
So Herman Cain is a good example of a connection with the voters and why his message, good messenger, he’s resonating with the people.

VAN SUSTEREN: Well, it’s sort of interesting about — you know, in watching the straw poll votes in Florida that you were talking about, Herman Cain winning by — he trounced, basically, Governor Perry and Governor Romney, the two supposed front-runners — is that the media was so shocked, that they seemed so surprised. And I’m sort of curious as to what extent, you know, the media doesn’t really go out and talk to the American people. And you know, I wonder if people — if the people watching it from the heartland, if they were surprised that he won in Florida.
PALIN: We are not surprised that he, as a messenger of common-sense conservative pro-U.S. Constitution principles, is doing well. Many of the elites in the media were shocked.
And you know, I think it’s kind of humorous to see the way that the media is covering these candidates. Let me give you an example of this. Earlier today, Greta, on Fox News, you had a host who said Sarah Palin in the polls, she’s way, way down there in the polls. And I’m kind of scratching my head, going, Wait a minute. On another network, on CNN just the other day, they showed a poll where I was, like, within 5 points of President Obama. I was doing well, much better than many of the other candidates.
And I’m thinking all this misinformation and contradictory information, contradicting information from even hosts here on this network itself, it adds to, I guess, the disconnect even — not just the permanent political class, but many in the media also because sometimes, they don’t do their homework. And many times, a host or a reporter, they have their own agenda and they interject their agenda in the information they’re providing their viewers and readers.
So didn’t surprise me or many of us that Herman Cain was doing well, but certainly surprised many in the media because sometimes they don’t do their homework and they do perpetuate misinformation.

Well, Politico tried to “perpetuate misinformation” and between Slate’s Dave Weigel and Hot Air’s Tina Korbe, this gets turned into a kerfuffle. Read the freakin’ transcript: While Palin did say Cain was “flavor of the week” — that is to say, from the media perspective he’s the Next New Thing — she followed that with effusive praise for him as representing “the real people of America,” with whom he has an “automatic connection.” 

Sarah Palin has always been a Herman Cain fan, and is still a Herman Cain fan. I’d have to look it up, but earlier this year, she re-Tweeted one of Cain’s columns. The media are trying to gin up a phony controversy — “Let’s you and him fight,” as they say down home — and the last thing Cain should do is to believe what the media say about Sarah Palin. They’re “makin’ up stuff” again!

See also: “Politics as Show Biz.”

UPDATE: Wait a minute — there is a discrepancy between the transcript and this video:

Something’s screwy: Is the Fox transcription wrong? Did Politico edit the video? What?

LATEST FOX NEWS POLL: Mitt Romney 23% Rick Perry 19% Herman Cain 17%

Published barely 10 minutes ago.

UPDATE: The details:

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 925 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from September 25 to September 27. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In other words, this is the first published poll based on a survey completely after Cain won Saturday’s straw poll.

UPDATE II: Let’s compare numbers with the previous Fox poll:

Romney ……… Sept. 9/25-27: 23% …. Aug. 29-31: 18%
Perry …………. Sept. 9/25-27: 19% …. Aug. 29-31: 26%
Cain …………… Sept. 9/25-27: 17% …. Aug. 29-31: 4%
Gingrich ……..  Sept. 9/25-27: 11% …. Aug. 29-31: 3%
Paul ……………. Sept. 9/25-27: 6% …. Aug. 29-31: 6%
Bachmann ……. Sept. 9/25-27: 3% …. Aug. 29-31: 8%
Santorum ……. Sept. 9/25-27: 3% …. Aug. 29-31: 4%

So three September debates in the span of 15 days — Sept. 7 in Simi Valley (NBC), Sept. 12 in Tampa (CNN) and Sept. 22 in Orlando (Fox) —  have completely re-arranged the GOP field.

UPDATE III: Why the big shift to Cain? Well, the Aug. 29-31 poll included Sarah Palin — she got 8% — while the latest poll didn’t.

Are Palinistas becoming Cainiacs?

UPDATE IV: Allahpundit wields the knife on Perry:

This is what happens when the big takeaways from your debate performance are (a) you hate your own base and (b) you sound brain damaged.

Dude. That was cold.

UPDATE V: Thanks for the link, Ace, but — is there something in the water these days? — Palin did not mean to put down Herman Cain with that “flavor of the week” phrase. She’s actually a huge fan of Cain. (And I’ll delete the hell out of any commenter who goes there, IYKWIMAITYD.)

Jeff Goldstein notes Palin’s latest policy commentary: She’s keeping her fire targeted at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Except that you can’t use that kind of metaphor any more. Because it’s “hate” or something.


RUN, STEVE, RUN!

Longtime conservative New Media activist Steve Foley has formed an exploratory committee to run for Congress as a Republican in California’s newly redrawn 47th District. His policy focus is on three main areas:

Economy and Jobs: Getting our fiscal house in order by supporting a Balanced Budget Amendment, Cutting Spending, Replacing our antiquated Tax Code, Removing overburdening Restrictions & Red Tape, and becoming Energy Independent.

Repealing ObamaCare:ObamaCare will devastate our already weak economy to a point of no return and will burden future generations of Americans to pay for a bill that has little to no chance of success. The best solution would to get the federal government as far away from Health Care as possible but while we work to achieve that goal here are some immediate fixes we can accomplish in a relatively short amount of time:

  • Medical liability & tort reform.
  • Small business buying pools.
  • Allow insurance to be sold across state lines.

Border Security: The way to tackle the illegal immigration problem we’re facing is to make federal government do their job! I would advocate for:

  1. Securing our borders
  2. Enforcing the laws that are already on the books
  3. Promoting a path to citizenship for those who come in the front door
  4. Removing the magnets that draw illegal immigrants here in the first place

Steve is best-known in the blogosphere as founder of the Minority Report blog. The first time I met him was in October 2009 in Lake Placid, N.Y., where he helped lead Liberty Wire’s team supporting Doug Hoffman in the historic NY-23 special election. Steve was also front-and-center in Massachusetts during the Scott Brown campaign, he worked hard to help elect conservatives during the 2010 mid-terms, and for the past nine months he has led the online grassroots army at Citizens for Cain.

Re-districting has created an open seat in the 47th District, which includes Steve’s hometown of Cypress, Calif., and as he says in a post at his blog, “I’m putting my money where my mouth is.” This is a chance to really make a difference. Steve’s campaign could shake things up in California, where the state GOP is dominated by a tired and timid Establishment.

Steve Foley has been a key part of the conservative uprising for the past two years and I hope you’ll give him your generous support.

STEVE FOLEY for U.S. CONGRESS
California 47th District

SHOCKER: Herman Cain Now Leading Rick Perry 28%-18% in New Zogby Poll UPDATE: Dennis Miller Endorses Cain, Invites Me* to Hang Out in Hollywood

Sarah Rumpf at Sunshine State Sarah brings the stunning news:

Rick Perry has tumbled by more than 20 percentage points over the past month among Republican presidential primary voters and is now second to Herman Cain, who leads the field with 28%.
Mitt Romney received little benefit from Perrys fall, garnering 17% of the vote for third place. . . .
These results are from an IBOPE Zogby interactive poll conducted Sept. 23-26. . . .

You can read the rest from Zogby. Their “interactive” methodology has been the subject of criticism in the past, but I expect we’ll see other polls confirming a similar trend in coming days.

UPDATE: Skepticism toward Zogby’s methodology was to be expected, and especially from liberals like Oliver Willis of Media Matters, but as I say, the trend is what I’ll be watching.

Sarah points out that Zogby includes survey information from Monday. An earlier poll by CNN, showing Perry still ahead, was taken Friday through Sunday. But (a) it was Perry’s defeat in the straw poll that will do the most damage, and (b) weekend survey data is untrustworthy. Only when I see an all-weekday polls fully reflecting the impact of the Orlando vote will I be confident about the trend.

That there will be a shift, I have no doubt. The whole argument for Perry was that he was the inevitable conservative alternative to Romney. Now both his inevitability and his conservatism are in doubt, so he is not likely to remain atop the polls much longer.

UPDATE II: Linked by The Lonely Conservative, another early Cain endorser, who welcomes a latecomer aboard the Cain Train:

[Dennis] Miller, who mentioned his support for the Cain campaign on his national radio show, will headline a fundraiser for Cain in Los Angeles and has donated to the campaign, a Cain spokeswoman confirmed. …
Miller has been supportive of Cain for months — his website directed readers to the Georgia businessman’s campaign site in July –- but had not formally endorsed him until today.

Fundraiser in Los Angeles? Oh, I gotta be there for that!

UPDATE II: Once you’re through hitting the tip jar to send me to Hollywood to hang out celebrities like my new best friend Dennis Miller, you need to watch this video where an ABC News reporter mocks Herman Cain as a “nobody”:

Good Morning America’s John Hendren on Sunday dismissed the victory of Herman Cain in the Florida straw poll, condescendingly asserting that the “big winner is nobody.”

Hey, punk: I’m a “nobody,” too. There’s nearly 300 million nobodies in this country, and all we need is 50% plus one of the voters, and Obama will become an ex-somebody.

UPDATE III: I realize that saying that my new BFF Dennis Miller has “invite[d] me to hang out in Hollywood,” I’m kind of stretching things. But when you hold a public political event, the press is necessarily invited. Plus, I’m tight with Team Herman, so in all seriousness, I expect exclusive access at this event. All I’ve got to do is rattle the tip jar with such with hitherto unequalled frenzy in order to get to Hollywood, and I’ll be in like Flynn.

Bonus: I’ve still got a personal cell-phone number for Courtney Stodden’s mom. Think about that. It’s also possible I could impose on Team Palin to arrange an interview with Bristol. An interview with Alyssa Milano is less likely, but I wouldn’t rule it out entirely.