The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Memo From the National Affairs Desk: Mathematical Impossibilities Happen

Posted on | March 14, 2012 | 42 Comments

“Rick Santorum charged of out Tuesday’s wins in the South with a fresh claim to being the chosen son of the Republicans’ conservative flank. Mitt Romney limped out with something that could endure longer: an enhanced lead in delegates.
“Under the cruel math of the prolonged GOP primary race, Mr. Santorum’s victories in Alabama and Mississippi were more than negated by late-night Romney wins far to the west in the Pacific Ocean, in caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa.”
— Neil King Jr., Wall Street Journal

“If Newt Gingrich drops out of the GOP primary after losing in Alabama and Mississippi yesterday, it could enable Rick Santorum to unite conservatives against Mitt Romney.”
— Greg Sargent, Washington Post

“As it turned out, the Lindsay campaign was fatally flawed from the start. It was all tip and no iceberg — the exact opposite of the slow-building McGovern juggernaut — but back in February it was still considered very shrewd and avant-garde to assume that the most important factor in a presidential campaign was a good ‘media candidate.’ If he had Star Quality, the rest would take care of itself.”
— Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ’72

Went to bed last night — actually, about 3 o’clock this morning — happy to know that Rick Santorum had won Alabama and Mississippi and was on his way to a second-place finish in Hawaii.

And I woke up with a feeling of dread: Today is the day that I have to go through my travel records and gather up my expense receipts from 2011, because my wife has made an appointment Thursday for us to get our taxes done. The Beatles wrote a song about this.

Piled atop the tax-time misery, however, was the Fear and Loathing of what I was certain I’d encounter when I logged on this morning: Romneyites gloating about the delegate count.

Damn those Samoans! Damn them all to hell, I say!

Let Charles Johnson denounce me as an anti-Samoan bigot, I don’t care. Those island bastards put a smile on Jennifer Rubin’s smug face:

According to the Associated Press delegate count, Mitt Romney won 42 delegates last night to 38 for Rick Santorum. By winning nine delegates in American Samoa and 45 percent of the vote in Hawaii, Romney wiped out Rick Santorum’s narrow wins in the Deep South. And, just like Saturday, when Santorum won Kansas and lost ground to Romney, today Santorum’s task to get to 1,114 delegates (as he promised last night he would) is that much harder. …
Math, like gravity, can’t be ignored. . . .
There are 1,358 delegates yet to be awarded. Romney has 495. He needs 694 delegates, less than 48 percent of the remaining delegates, to wrap it up.

Evil Blogger Lady pointed out this Rubin-Romney gloatfest, and all the other Romneyites — including Hugh “Guess Who This Helps?” Hewitt — have joined in. Permit me, then, to piss in their cornflakes.

If you subtract nine Samoan delegates from Tuesday’s results, this seemingly inexorable March Toward Mittdom starts sliding back the other way, and we have passed the point in the schedule where Romney can keep padding his lead by scooping up uncontested delegates in farflung territories. Mitt’s got those 36 delegates from Guam, American Samoa, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the Northern Marianas Islands and I’m sure they’ll all have a good time in Tampa, but the territorial RINO good times are over, baby.

Rick Santorum left Louisiana last night and flew to Puerto Rico for two days of campaigning. Puerto Rico votes Sunday, they’ve got 23 delegates and, while I’m not a Michael Barrone-type expert on stuff like this, do you think there might some Catholic voters in Puerto Rico?

Do you see what I’m talking about here? Rubin and Hewitt and all Mitt’s “inevitability”-mongers keep making the same mistake: They’re extrapolating the trend forward, as if this trend were a fixed factor in a polynomial equation and the actual campaign — you know, candidates giving speeches, shaking hands with voters and stuff like that — didn’t make any difference at all. Read more

Category: Alabama, Election 2012, Fear. Loathing., Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Puerto Rico, Rick Santorum, Shoe Leather Fund

If BBH Labs Was Employing The Homeless To Register Voters Or As ‘Sex Workers’, Would It Be OK?

Posted on | March 14, 2012 | 13 Comments

by Smitty

I need a little help understanding where BBH went wrong. You’re a company, you see a market, you hire some people (jobs!) and then you get a bunch of blowback? You’re paying a wage to unskilled people to be wireless hotspots. Unless there is some medical objection (and maybe constant exposure to that level of RF radiation is not a swift idea) the basis for attacking BBH escapes me.

I can only figure that (a) somebody else’s business model is jeopardized by this, (b) the Left is looking for distraction from #OccupyResoluteDesk and the economy he’s parked in the toilet, or (c) it’s just sheer anti-capitalistic commie talk from the usual suspects.

Now, if they were ennobling the homeless by having them register voters, or having them advocate Sandra Fluke’s crotch maintenance requirements alongside the WiFi business, would that be OK? Maybe this is all a question of bundling.

Category: American Power

What We Need Is An MEP Rant

Posted on | March 14, 2012 | 4 Comments

by Smitty

For some reason, the farce that is the Greek default seems to bother Nigel. Take it away, Mr. Farage:
You’ve got to love the Carry On bit at the end. The imagery works quite well for the sad pack of jackwagons running the U.S. Into the dirt.

via Theo Spark

Category: Europe, Foreigners

Inevitability?

Posted on | March 14, 2012 | 42 Comments

by Smitty

By the eye, Mitt has outspent his remaining three opponents combined by 2:1. . .

But, for all that negative ad carpet bombing, he’s barely holding his own overall.

Maybe the Mitt-heads can spring into action, and convince me that Romney really has this thing sewn up. I’m not his biggest fan, but I don’t consider this a question of fandom. Mere competence is like saying you can run a ball-control offense in the 4th quarter; no one can deny it’s football, but when the game ends, and the other team has one more point, all your competent play calling doesn’t make you other than a loser.

Maybe Mitt has been brutally honest all along; he’s merely a slender version of Al Gore. At least he hasn’t tried to pretend he can connect with the hoi polloi. If you read older posts here, my unsought advice had always been to court the Tea Party vote.  But he is not, and cannot be, for all his bumper-sticker talk. He’s about Ruling Class, and not liberty.

Update: Barone is essential in this context.

Category: Mitt Romney

Handy Dandy Fluke Translator

Posted on | March 14, 2012 | 10 Comments

by Smitty

Planet Moron offers a handy translator for these oddly confusing Sandra Flukisms:

Fluke: “Silencing women’s voices.”
Translation: Criticizing Sandra Fluke.

Fluke: “Raising this issue in our public consciousness.”
Translation: Agreeing with Sandra Fluke.

Fluke: “Unfair obstacles to participating in public life.”
Translation: Having children.

More where that came from. Actually, the post makes a good template for recognizing the Newspeak of the Left. Not that it is understandable in the traditional, rational sense.

Category: Progressivism

LIVE AT FIVE – 03.14.12

Posted on | March 14, 2012 | 8 Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho


TOP NEWS
SANTORUM SWEEPS

Rick Santorum at last night's victory party in Lafayette, La.

Santorum takes Alabama, Mississippi; Hawaii returns not in yet – Samoa goes for Mitt

Transformer Fire Plunges Boston Into Darkness
Back Bay district evacuated


Bipartisan Push From Congress On Afghanistan
Congressmen from both parties urge Obama to stay the course



POLITICS
AFL-CIO Suffers Cognitive Dissonance, Endorses Obama

AFL-CIO honcho Richard Trumka

Trumka cites Obama’s focus on jobs, Detroit bailout

Ohio Lawmakers To Hear Proposed Exotic Pet Rules

Estimate For 2012 Deficit Rises $100 Billion

Florida Lawmakers Give Redistricting Another Shot

Eliminated In Redistricting, Bob Turner (R-NY) To Tackle Senator Kirsten Gillibrand

Kansas House Passes Tax Cut Plan

Spencer Bachus Survives Tough Primary

Ron Paul Wins Virgin Islands Vote But Comes Up Short On Delegates



THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Crude Slips On Firm Dollar, Weak Stock Futures
Gold, Silver Sink In Electronic Trading
Encyclopaedia Britannica Goes Out Of Print After 200 Years
Bank Surge Sends Dow To Highest Level Since 2007
Bernanke Keeps QE3 On The Table While Signaling That Economy Is Improving
Is Inflation Really At 8%?
NASDAQ Hits 3000 For First Time In 12 Years
WTO Action Won’t Solve Rare Earth Woes, Says Expert
Solar Power Growth Jumps To New Record
Sometimes I Talk To Siri Like A Robot
Goodbye, Cruel Google
Chrome For Windows 8 Confirmed
Apple Calls Proview’s Stance “Misleading”



SPORTS
Vince Jackson Bolts To Bucs

Wide Receiver Vince Jackson

5 Years, $55.55 million is his free-agent payoff

Western Kentucky Sets NCAA Record In 59-58 Win Over Miss. Valley State

Syracuse Center Melo Ruled Ineligible


Dwight Howard, Magic Come Up Big To Beat Heat

Turco Stmbles In First Start, Bolts Blast Bruins 6-1

Jackson Struggles As Nats Fall To Tigers 6-3



FAMOUS FOR BEING FAMOUS
Jermaine Jones Gets The Boot From “American Idol”

"American Idol" contestant Jermaine Jones

Allegedly lied to producers about police record

Peter Facinelli, Jennie Garth To Divorce

Alex Pettyfer Engaged To Elvis’ Granddaughter

Jessica Simpson Dishes On Her “Unstoppable” Sex Drive

Discovery Network Terminates Relationship With “Man Vs. Wild” Star Bear Grylls

Clint Eastwood’s Family Set For Reality TV Series



FOREIGNERS
PRC Premier Wen Calls For Political Reforms
SecDef Panetta Arrives In Afghanistan Amid Uproar Over Panjwai Massacre
Iran Insists Parchin Isn’t Nuke Site But Agrees to Let IAEA Inspect
Cameron Calls For Peaceful Transition, Not Revolution In Syria
Le Pen Looks West For Votes
Iran’s Majlis Begins Questioning Ahmedinejad
India Named Among “Enemies Of The Internet”
Ex-Soldier Sentenced To 6000+ Years For 1982 Guatemala Massacre



BLOGS & STUFF
Don Surber: Even Politico Doubts Obama Win
WyBlog: How Low Can It Go?
Weasel Zippers: WaPo’s Richard Cohen Whines “Sarah Palin Has Ruined America”
Atlas Shrugs: What The New York Times Won’t Run
Lonely Conservative: Cost Of ObamaCare Now Expected To Almost Double Initial Estimates
James Pethokoukis: The Entire Obama Administration, In One Anecdote
Newsbusters: Axelrod Cancels Bill Maher Appearance
James Hagerty: When Mom Goes Viral
Jawa Report: President & CEO Of Texas Planned parenthood Arrested For Indecent Exposure
NRO Corner: Stimulus Bluster

Category: Live at Five

GOP PRIMARY RESULTS HQ: SANTORUM WINS ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI: ‘WE DID IT AGAIN’

Posted on | March 13, 2012 | 68 Comments

UPDATE 1:55 a.m. ET: Mitt Romney wins all nine of American Samoa’s delegates, just like Guam. I say we sell ’em both to China. Package deal. Good riddance!

UPDATE 1:05 a.m. ET: Earthquake in Vanuatu. Just a coincidence, right?

UPDATE 12:15 a.m. ET: As of now, according to the Associated Press, Mitt Romney has 472 delegates, Rick Santorum has 244, Newt Gingrich has 127, and Ron Paul has 47. If correct, that means Mitt has 53% of delegates so far, but remember that he won 50 delegates in one fell swoop in the Florida winner-take-all primary Jan. 31.

Rick Santorum is now flying to Puerto Rico, which votes Saturday, and awards 23 delegates. Next Tuesday, Illinois votes — 69 delegates. Then, on March 24, the Louisiana primary — a Southern state with lots of Catholic voters — and 46 delegates at stake.

Question 1: What will the delegate count be on March 25?

Question 2: Will Mitt Romney still be above 50% of the total?

Question 3: Shouldn’t you donate to Rick Santorum now?

11:50 p.m. ET: Newt Gingrich’s all-the-way-to-Tampa speech — in the wake of two defeats in his own backyard — might not exactly be “whistling past the graveyard.” He can continue campaigning, of course. But unless I’m seriously mistaken about the impact on his fundraising, Gingrich is either going to have to start laying off staff or find some other way to cut expenses. If he can’t win in the Deep South, where will he win? And why keep giving him money, if he keeps losing?

10:55 p.m. ET: As Santorum noted during his speech, his daughter Elizabeth has spent the past two days campaigning in Hawaii, where voting in caucuses tonight doesn’t end until 2 a.m. That creates the possibility that Santorum’s two big wins in Alabama and Mississippi could create a bandwagon shift toward him in Hawaii.

We will have to wait and see. Newt is now about to give his concession speech. His fundraising has got to be circling the drain.

10:45 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum began his speech tonight, “We did it again.” He was speaking from LaFayette, La., and Alabama had just been called a victory for him. Shortly before he ended the speech, it was announced that Mississippi had also been called a Santorum victory.

Two words: FREAKING HUGE!

10:25 p.m. ET: This afternoon, before my nap, when Drudge was posting exit-poll numbers, I wrote:

OK, I’m adding several grains of salt: Exit polls can be screwy.

Now Allahpundit pushes the “chagrin” button:

Looks like the exits got it wrong there, likely vis-a-vis the evangelical numbers.
The worst-case scenario for Mitt tonight was a Santorum sweep. We’re on the verge of it.

Ain’t I done told ya? Ain’t I done told ya?


10:15 p.m. ET: In a telephone interview just now with Greta Van Sustern on Fox News, Rick Santorum said, “We’re on our way to victory.” Asked about his assertion today that Fox News has been biased in favor of Mitt Romney, Santorum said, “Not you and Sean [Hannity] — you’ve been great.” Santorum emphasized that the pro-Romney bias was apparent in straight news coverage. This was just what I said earlier today.

Brett Baier, in announcing Santorum’s victory in Alabama, called it “a major blow to Newt Gingrich.”

10:10 p.m. ET: NBC News just called Alabama for Rick Santorum — FREAKING HUGE, baby!

10:05 p.m. ET: Santorum is very close to winning in Alabama — leading 34%-30% over Newt — but his lead is now just one percentage point in Mississippi. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich’s campaign just released a strategy memo that begins:

Notwithstanding the conventional wisdom that dominates the news media, Newt Gingrich is well positioned to win the GOP nomination and here’s why. . . .

Hey, guys: If Newt loses Alabama and Mississippi tonight, what happens to your fundraising, huh? What was your cash-on-hand and total debt as of March 1, huh? If the checks start bouncing, we’ll see how “well positioned” Newt is.

9:50 p.m. ET: OK, I’m not going to pile up new numbers every five minutes for the rest of the night. Maybe every half-hour or so. Even though it’s still too close to call, at this point, Santorum’s lead continues to hold up in both Alabama and Mississippi. Caution is necessary, however, because we don’t know where these votes are coming from. The districts that come in later may shift the other direction.

Still, for Santorum even to be in the running, two hours after the polls closed, in the South where Gingrich is supposed to be strongest — folks, this could be freakin’ huge.

9:40 p.m. ET: Now with 8% of Alabama precincts reporting:

Rick Santorum ……… 10,759 (34.2%)
Newt Gingrich ………. 9,279 (29.5%)
Mitt Romney ……….. 8,947 (28.4%)
Ron Paul ……………….. 1,745 (5.5%)

So, as of this hour, Rick Santorum leads both Alabama and Mississippi. Don’t be counting any chickens yet. Still way too early, folks.

UPDATE 9:30 ET: Now with 19% of precincts reporting in Mississippi:

Rick Santorum ……… 14,742 (34.1%)
Newt Gingrich ………. 13,303 (30.8%)
Mitt Romney ……….. 12,494 (28.9%)
Ron Paul ……………….. 2,169 (5.0%)

UPDATE 9:25 ET: Strangely, Mitt Romney has no plans to deliver a speech tonight. Rick Santorum is hosting his own election night speech in LaFayette, La. — Louisiana’s primary is March 24.

Linked by Bob Belvedere at Camp of the Saints — thanks!

UPDATE 9:15 ET: Again, to caution, these are very early results, but with 4% of Alabama precincts reporting:

Rick Santorum ……… 3,763 (34.2%)
Newt Gingrich ………. 3,190 (29%)
Mitt Romney ……….. 3,128 (28.4%)
Ron Paul ………………. 659 (6%)

UPDATE 9:10 p.m. ET: Results are coming in very slowly, but with 6% of precincts reporting in Mississippi:

Mitt Romney …… 4,132 (32.4%)
Rick Santorum …. 4,124 (32.4%)
Newt Gingrich ….. 3,640 (28.6%)
Ron Paul ……………. 718 (5.6%)

With such a small number of precincts reporting, these numbers don’t mean much, but the chatter on TV is . . . Newt third?

* * * PREVIOUSLY (7:30 p.m. ET) * * *

Usually, Tuesday nights find me in some “victory celebration” where the WiFi bandwidth sucks and I end up phoning in reports while Smitty mans the election results desk. Tonight, however, Smitty’s wife has him on “honey-do” duty and I’m at home in my basement office/man-cave, with plenty of bandwidth, two dogs, three kids, a wife, etc.

Your basic facts: Polls close in Mississippi and Alabama at 7 p.m. Central, 8 p.m. Eastern. As previously noted, Drudge has got exit poll numbers indicating Romney could win both of those states which, if true, would drive a stake through the heart of Gingrich’s campaign. But it’s going to be tight, so I expect to be up late.

Alabama has 50 delegates, Mississippi has 40. Also, Hawaii has its caucuses today, with 20 delegates at stake, but that won’t be over until 2 a.m. ET, and so folks back east probably won’t know the Hawaii result until breakfast Wednesday morning.

Oh, yeah: American Samoa? They’re having their caucus at Toa Bar & Grill in Pago Pago, where they will choose six delegates to go along with their three “super-delegates.” It sounds like a joke, doesn’t it? Drunk Samoans for Romney!

Quick headline roundup from Memeorandum:

At any rate, check back later. We’ll be piling up the numbers, arguing back at the TV talking-head coverage and quoting the speeches.

RECENTLY:

Category: Alabama, Election 2012, Hawaii, Mississippi

Fox Not ‘Fair and Balanced’? Santorum Finally Mentions Pro-Romney Bias UPDATE: Exit Polls Show Mitt Wins Mississippi? Newt 3rd in Alabama?

Posted on | March 13, 2012 | 29 Comments

I’ve been saying this for weeks, and it’s probably not a good idea for the candidate to say so himself, but it’s unquestionably true:

On Tuesday’s “Kilmeade & Friends” radio show on Fox News Radio, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum . . . accused Fox News of being in the tank for his competitor, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. . . .
“The man has had a 10-to-1 money advantage,” Santorum said. “He’s had all the organizational advantage. He’s had Fox News shilling for him every day, no offense Brian but I see it. And yet, he can’t close — he can’t seal the deal because he just doesn’t have the goods to be able to motivate the Republican base and win this election.” . . .
“I can tell you, we watch the coverage there and you know, look you guys are allowed to cover what you want to cover,” Santorum said.

The daytime programs, in particular, seem to have a pro-Romney bias, and there’s no doubt that Bill O’Reilly loves him some Romney. Rick gets his share on Hannity and Greta, but the rest of the lineup has been leaning ever more steadily Mitt-ward since Florida.

Someone could, and should, do an analytical study of how Fox has covered the GOP primary campaign, because as someone who spent the past 16 months cheering for underdogs — first Herman Cain, then Santorum — I’ve noticed how the bias works.

Forget about the commentary programs and candidate interview segments. The bias has actually been on the straight news side of the Fox operation. In horse-race campaign reporting mode, Fox always showed a bias toward the perceived “first tier” candidates.

Herman Cain was mostly a non-story until after Perry melted down and Cain won the Orlando straw poll. Then everything was Cain, Cain, Cain until it became obvious that the sexual allegations were non-survivable, at which point it was, “Hey, Newt!” And then it was Newt, Newt, Newt all the way through Christmas.

Only in the final week of December did it seem that somebody at Fox said, “Hey, maybe this Santorum thing is for real.” But on caucus night in Iowa, the Fox analysts — Karl Rove in particular — were clearly dismissive of Santorum’s success, treating it as a fluke. So, once Mitt won New Hampshire, as everyone knew he would all along, Santorum was once again relegated to “second-tier” coverage. Then came Santorum’s Feb. 7 “hat-trick,” but the talking heads on Fox kept repeating the misleading “non-binding” spin from the Romney camp, once again treating any Santorum success as an irrelevant fluke. (Iowa was also non-binding, but the Fox talking heads didn’t mention that when it looked like Romney had narrowly won there.)

Simply put, anyone who watched Fox News campaign coverage could detect two clear biases:

  1. Until the field was winnowed (i.e., after South Carolina), a bias in favor of covering the contest between perceived front-runners; and
  2. A generally dismissive attitude toward Santorum, so that even his victories were treated as insignificant, whereas any win by Romney — no matter how slender the margin, nor how much Romney out-spent his opponents — was treated as a solid victory.

Just as liberals don’t notice liberal bias in the media, people who hate Santorum don’t notice their anti-Santorum bias — and there are clearly some people at Fox News who hate Rick Santorum.

Finally, I’ll say this: Newt has gotten bend-over-backward fairness from Fox, which has ignored his campaign’s severe financial problems and blatant organizational ineptitude. People who saw Gingrich’s campaign at close range in Nevada pronounced it a “clusterf–k,” and I’m reasonably sure the campaign has been running deeper and deeper into the red for several weeks now.

Question 1: How much did Newt raise in February? Question 2: What was his campaign’s cash-on-hand and total debt as of March 1?

Until we see Fox News people asking those hard questions, I will continue to suspect them of bias.

UPDATE: Just as I was about to take my customary Tuesday nap — I expect a late night — a commenter notices that the Drudge Report has posted these exit-poll numbers:

AL
ROMNEY 32.07%
SANTORUM 25.24%
GINGRICH 23.6%

MS
ROMNEY 33.55%
GINGRICH 24.62%
SANTORUM 22.15%

OK, I’m adding several grains of salt: Exit polls can be screwy.

But if this works out — if Mitt wins both Alabama and Mississippi with Newt third in Alabama — then it’s all over for Gingrich.

And I’m sure you’ll remember my earlier prediction: When Newt quits, he will endorse Romney. Why? Just like Pawlenty, Gingrich will have campaign debts he can’t pay without Mitt’s money.


Category: Election 2012, Fox News, Media Bias, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polls, Rick Santorum
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