The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Quantitative Easing

Posted on | November 2, 2010 | Comments Off on Quantitative Easing

by Smitty (via Donald Marron)

This is very well done:
Take it straight, take it sober: the country is in for a bumpy ride. The plutocrats whose plans suffer a setback today could very well afford to put a horse head in every bed, for small, wooden, PETA-approved values of ‘horse’.
The Founding Fathers were deeply suspicious of central banking, for reasons that will be discussed in a breadline near you. End the Fed.

Category: Weimar America

Final Warning: Polls Are Not Elections

Posted on | November 2, 2010 | 25 Comments

PANAMA CITY, Fla. — We now have the final Cook Political Report forecast (“The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating”) predicting a pickup of 50-60 House seats for Republicans. That would be a truly historic result, but it’s actually a note of sober caution compared to Jay Cost’s “Hulk smash” forecast:

A [Gallup final poll predicting GOP] victory of 15 points suggests Republican gains well in excess of my previous estimate of 61 seats. The Abramowitz model suggests a pickup of about 76 seats . . .

With all due respect to Jay Cost: Fuck you and the Abramowitz model you rode in on.

Polls don’t win elections, and regression analysis sure as hell doesn’t win elections. Politics is not a science, and trying to reduce elections to trends, polls and mathematical formulae is one of those situations where when the only tool you’ve got is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

If you’re a thousand miles away from a district and don’t actually know anything about what the candidates and their campaigns are doing, it is tempting to look at poll numbers, examine past voting trends, and start making assumptions about what the result will be. But when we yield to that temptation, we ignore the Hayekian insight: Information is diffused throughout society in such a way that no one — not even the best-informed “expert” — can know everything.

So Jay Cost doesn’t know everything, Charlie Cook doesn’t know everything and Michael Barone doesn’t know everything, either. Yet their status as political experts requires them to make predictions and we mere mortals . . . well, we don’t know nothing about winning no elections.

Anyway . . .  Allahpundit is optimistic, which is so abnormal it should worry us all. Jim Geraghty sees a net gain of 70 seats for the GOP (76 pickups minus six losses, including Ben Quayle going down in AZ-3). Nate Silver errs on the side of caution:

Our forecasting model, which is based on a consensus of indicators including generic ballot polling, polling of local districts, expert forecasts, and fund-raising data, now predicts an average Republican gain of 54 seats . . .
Of the projected Republican gains, many are tenuous. If we allocate all 435 seats to the leader projected by our model — no matter how slim the margin — Republicans would net a gain of 59 seats. In 15 of these 59 seats, however, the Republican is projected to win by fewer than 2 points. It is likely that Republicans will lose at least some of these — which is why the model forecasts an average gain of 54-55 seats, rather than 59, when looking at the seats on a probabilistic basis. If they lost all of them, however, their gains would be merely 44 seats, which would put the Democrats within striking distance of retaining the House.

See what I mean? Because there has been little polling in many House races, Silver is forced to use such inputs as fund-raising totals and “expert forecasts” — which is to say, he’s relying on second-hand data. And as if Republicans need a reason to be scared to death, Silver notes a very realistic possibility: Despite everything, Democrat manage to hold on t0 the majority.

To quote one expert: Don’t get cocky!

While I’m optimistic that Republicans will take the House majority, I’m trying to temper GOP overconfidence in my latest American Spectator column:

Parked beside the Steve Southerland campaign headquarters on Baldwin Road is a big RV with an orange sign on the side designating it the “I’ve Had Enough Express.” And indeed, if polls can be trusted, voters in Florida’s 2nd District have finally had enough seven-term Democrat Rep. Allen Boyd.
“We’re feeling very good about how things are going,” said Southerland campaign communications director Matt McCullough, as he sat in an office inside the yellow brick house that was once the home of the GOP candidate’s grandfather. Polls showing Southerland with a double-digit lead over Boyd, but the campaign is “not taking anything for granted,” McCullough said. “We’re still out there working as hard as we did from Day One.”
Despite such necessary cautions against overconfidence, Republicans here clearly expect to be celebrating a Southerland victory Tuesday night at the Boardwalk Beach Resort. If they want to learn whether their party wins a majority in the House of Representatives, however, they’d better be prepared to stay up past midnight. . . .

Please read the whole thing. I don’t know everything, but what I know, I know. And I know I’m going to take a nap today, because I expect this thing to go to the wee hours of the morning.

I’m leaving for Miami in about an hour. Please hit the tip jar.

Update (Smitty): Welcome InstaPundit readers! Allow me to direct your attention to a post supporting my local candidate.

Category: Election, Fear & Loathing on the Way to Florida, Florida, Polls

(Among The) First Vote Post(s)!

Posted on | November 2, 2010 | 9 Comments

by Smitty

<kinison>
I’ve been waiting for this moment for

Two. . .Miserable. . .YEARS!

</kinison>

Lots of people with their soundtrack cut for today’s election. Picking up the question from the Democrat perspective; as well as the need to capture the Wave Election moment; and the need to get the Led out of every conservative butt today and vote, wake up your whole verrückt neighborhood with the Bonham beat, as we drum these jerks the heck on out of here:

To the pasture with you, Jim Moran.

A ‘well played’ to The Camp of the Saints, especially in light of the POTUS’s recent inarticulate remark about punishing enemies.

Here is some fresh joy from Trifecta:

Let me say something you haven’t heard elsewhere: maximal heat in all of the toughest districts, like VA-8, is a downpayment on victory in 2012. The incumbent may hold onto his seat, claw marks and all. Short of outright victory, leaving them so shattered that they spend two years planning retirement is a worthy achievement.

Updated: not to come off like a groupie or anything, but I did happen to be supporting my candidate at my polling spot when he came by:

Category: Election, Patrick Murray

LIVE AT FIVE – 11.02.10 – BE THE WAVE

Posted on | November 2, 2010 | Comments Off on LIVE AT FIVE – 11.02.10 – BE THE WAVE

TOP NEWS

Ninth Circuit: Military Gay Policy To Stand Pending Appeal

Protester at rally to repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy

In other 9th circuit news, separate panel may approve part of Arizona’s immigration law, allow police to check status of criminal suspects

Sarkozy Among Targets of Greek Anarchists’ Parcel Bombs
Two men arrested by Greek police for involvement in plot






Giants Win First World Series Since 1954
Lincecum outduels Lee, Renteria wins it with three-run blast in the 7th. Prop 19 support surges among Little League parents in California

Obama Walks Back “Enemies” Remark To Latinos
We heard you just fine the first time, Mr. President.



POLITICS

Sarah Palin And Jon Stewart Agree On This: The Media Are A Bad Influence

Sarah Palin campaigns for John Raese in West Virginia

Would to God we could shoot the messenger. It might encourage the others to do better.

Lawyers Gear Up For Post-Election Fights

Tancredo Picks Up Palin Endorsement


Justice Dept. Warns WWE About Election Day Giveaways

Murcowski Spokescreature Says She’ll Caucus With GOP If Elected


THE ECONOMY, STUPID

Asian Stocks Down Before Central bank Meetings; Yen Falls From 15-Year High

Reserve Bank Of Australia Raises Interest Rates

ROK’s Lee, Obama Vow Settlement OF Free Trade Pact By G20 Meeting Next Week

Android Phones Outsell iPhone 2-1; Both Phones Eating RiM’s Market Share

Google Sues Interior Dept. Over Microsoft Contract Bid

7″ Not Enough For Steve Jobs; ViewSonic Doesn’t Care


SPORTS

Randy Moss Released By Vikings After 26 Days

Randy Moss catches a Brett Favre pass in last month's Vikings/Jets game

Release not mentioned during Monday press conference

Colts Rise Above Injuries, Shred Texans, Take AFC South Lead

Deng Scores Career Best 40  In Bulls Win

Rangers CEO Rips Yankees Fans, Team Apologizes

Chilean Miner To Run In New York Marathon



FAMOUS FOR BEING FAMOUS

Demi Lovato Quits Tour, Enters Treatment

Demi Lovato on tour with the Jonas Brothers

Seeking help for emotional & physical issues

Charlie Sheen Divorcing Brooke Mueller
Lily Allen Loses Second Baby




Courtney Cox: “This Is Not Like We’re Getting Divorced”

Slash Halts Divorce Proceedings

Lohan Considers PETA Offer To Help With Rehab Bill

Conspiracy Theory Explains Why Bristol Palin’s Still on DWTS (Video)



FOREIGNERS

Japan Says PM To Meet Russian President Despite Kuriles Row

Church Attack Seen As Strike At Iraq’s Core

Juggling Act Awaits Brazil’s First Woman President

PKK Denies Involvement In Suicide Bomb Attack; Unilaterally Extends Cease-Fire

Iraqi Shiite Coalition Rejects Saudi King’s Offer To Host Talks



BLOGS & STUFF

Don Surber: Unemployed Woman Sells Obama Letter To Pay Bills

C4P: Sarah Palin Mocks “Puppy-Kicking” Politico’s Use Of Anonymous Sources

CNN: “Shut Up,” Michael Steele Suggests To GOP’s Palin Critics

Protein Wisdom: Left Already Making Excuses For Crushing Defeat

Jay Cost: Special “Hulk Angry! Hulk Smash! Edition

Michelle Malkin: Senator Bennet’s Disastrous Cut & Run Interview

POWIP: American Pudding Reserves At An All-Time Low (h/t Maetenloch @Ace)


— compiled by Wombat-socho

Category: Live at Five

Everyone Point And Laugh At PoliticsUSA

Posted on | November 1, 2010 | 3 Comments

by Smitty (via Digg)

As I hit the rack early in support of early-bird voting, it’s crucial to spread the word about the abject idiocy we’re opposing tomorrow.
Dear America, Why Are We Voting Against Our Own Self Interests?, begins the pusher-man’s appeal to his addicts not to consider sobriety. In cliff notes:

  • Republicans have done nothing.
  • Removing onerous regulations only helps the rich.
  • Lefty financial reforms helped banking customers.
  • ObamaCare care is swell.

Oh, and then the Social Security scare:

Republicans talk about privatizing Social Security and Medicare so the money can go to Wall Street for the next financial collapse. The Republican plan is to transfer Social Security money to investors so they can make money off the backs of hard working Americans. There is no protection for money lost in the stock market, but in exchange for the Social Security accounts Wall Street will contribute more to the GOP .

Can we get a reply from Mary Katherine?

What a sad little post, PoliticsUSA. You should have smoked more of whatever on Saturday. Common sense, fiscal responsibility, and liberty are not only in our best interests, they are our only interests. Change your name to Edmund Fitzgerald, rmuse: you’re going down.

Category: Blogging

Christine O’Donnell: We The People Of The First State

Posted on | November 1, 2010 | 4 Comments

by Smitty

Screw Comcast to the wall. One hopes that the ballot box verdict in a few hours brings the jolly bollocking they merit. In the meantime, set aside my rant and take the time to ensure this video has more viewers as a result of their perfidy than it otherwise would have:

We the People of the First State from Friends of Christine O’Donnell on Vimeo.

Meanwhile, I hope FIOS comes to Delaware and eats Comcast for lunch.

Also, from The FaceBook Page That Rocked The World, via Riehl on Twitter:

Tomorrow it’s our turn to vote against them and put our government back on the side of the people. This is our chance to rebuke their big government power grab, reject their unwanted “fundamental transformation” of America, and start the process of repealing this bill before it buries us under a mountain of debt.

So let’s fire Pelosi, retire Reid, and send all those who were responsible for [ObamaCare] a message that America is still about “We the People.”

Tomorrow is our Freedom Day.

Read the whole motivational thing.

Update: very well played at IMAO.  Go, Christine O’Donnell!

Category: Christine O'Donnell, Delaware

Props To John Dennis

Posted on | November 1, 2010 | 4 Comments

by Smitty

A warm note from a true gentleman:
It goes without saying that he has demonstrated 88 miles of guts to run a credible campaign against the most powerful Representative in the country. I hope that in around 12 hours or so, when the left coast polls open, that ‘Frisco gives that blankety-blank-blank-blank lady the comeuppance that only they can.
Thanks, John: you rock.

Category: California

Just Requested Media Credentials for the Marco Rubio Victory Party in Miami

Posted on | November 1, 2010 | 10 Comments

PANAMA CITY, Fla. — Me and every other freaking reporter on the planet:

Perhaps the most sought-after press credential in the country on Nov. 2: Republican Senate frontrunner Marco Rubio’s party at the Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables.
As of yesterday, the campaign had received requests from 232 media outlets. That includes 35 television cameras (of which 17 are from Florida) , network crews from NBC, ABC, FOX, CNN, the BBC, NPR, Univision and Al Arabiya, and 75 members of the foreign press — radio reporters from the Czech Republic, West Africa, China;  TV crews from The Congo, Columbia, Japan, France, Spain; and  print reporters from Germany, New Zealand, Argentina and the UK.
To say Rubio has come a long way is a massive understatement. . . .

Indeed. In the first poll taken after “those treacherous bastards” at the NRSC endorsed Charlie Crist in May 2009, Marco Rubio trailed by more than 30 points. 

Professor William Jacobson gives credit to the “Not One Red Cent” rebellion against the GOP Establishment. I’ve told the story behind that rebellion at Hot Air Green Room:

We were standing outside the Continental Lounge in Rosslyn, Va., while the young Republican operative explained it to me.
“All they care about is getting their chairmanships back, and they don’t care how they get there,” said the operative. “They don’t want to spend any money, so they were looking for a self-funder.”
“They” are Republican senators, and what my friend was explaining was the otherwise inexplicable decision of the National Republican Senatorial Committee to endorse Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate race — 15 months before the primary!
As soon as this news hit the Internet on Tuesday, the outright stupidity of the NRSC and its chairman, Texas Sen. John Cornyn, became the No. 1 topic of conversation among conservative activists, including the journalists, bloggers and GOP operatives who gathered for Thursday night’s cocktail party at the Continental in Rosslyn, just across the Potomac River from Georgetown.

The uprising of conservatives for Rubio has been one of the most inspiring political stories of recent years. Here in my cheap hotel, I just saw a TV ad in which Charlie Crist denounces Marco as “extreme.” Charlie doesn’t get it. He’s toast.

Anyway, I just interviewed a staffer for Steve Southerland, the GOP candidate here in Florida’s 2nd District. They’re feeling pretty confident they’ll defeat Allen Boyd tomorrow. But I just saw a DCCC TV ad distorting Southerland’s support for the Fair Tax, so “don’t get cocky.”)

It’s 592 miles to Miami. I want to stop by and see Allen West on the way. Please hit the tip jar.

Category: Allen West, Congress, Florida, Legal Insurrection, Marco Rubio, Senate
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