Optimism, Inc.

Wall Street analysts consistently overestimate the profit potential of companies:

Some economists look at the global economy and see troubles — the European debt crisis, persistently high unemployment worldwide, and housing woes in the U.S. Stock analysts as a group seem unfazed. . . .
Caterpillar, a multinational that gets much of its revenue abroad, is expected to boost its net income by 47 percent this year. Analysts have also hiked their S&P 500 profit estimate for 2011 to $95.53 a share, up from $92.45 at the beginning of January, according to Bloomberg data. That would be a record, surpassing the previous high reached in 2007. . . .
If the analysts are correct, the market would appear to be attractively priced right now. . . .
If history is any guide, chances are good that the analysts are wrong. According to a recent McKinsey report by Marc Goedhart, Rishi Raj, and Abhishek Saxena, “Analysts have been persistently over-optimistic for 25 years,” a stretch that saw them peg earnings growth at 10 percent to 12 percent a year when the actual number was ultimately 6 percent. “On average,” the researchers note, “analysts’ forecasts have been almost 100 percent too high,” even after regulations were enacted to weed out conflicts and improve the rigor of their calculations. . . . [I]n most years analysts have been forced to lower their estimates after it became apparent they had set them too high. . . .

Read the whole thing. The problem with “rosy scenario” forecasts is the gap between exoteric and esoteric knowledge.

It’s like Enron executives who were steadily cashing in their stock options even while they were telling the world and their own employees that everything was just fine, as the company teetered on the brink of collapse. The executives had esoteric knowledge, known only to a handful of insiders, which was obviously much different than the exoteric knowledge available to outsiders.

Think about this in terms of the “jobless recovery.” We are told that various indices show the U.S. economy is experiencing real growth and yet the employment rate remains high — officially 9.7% in May.

Why aren’t companies hiring? Could it be the gap between esoteric and exoteric knowledge? The executives and managers who the decisions that affect hiring at companies know how much money is available to meet payroll. If businesses are not hiring, despite all the economic “good news” being touted to the public, could it be that they know something that the analysts don’t?

Liberal Decides It’s OK to Hint Politicians May Be Hiding Their ‘True’ Religion

No, not Barack Obama. Nikki Haley:

By no means am I questioning their right to convert or their sincerity. . . . I think, instead, that if Haley felt compelled to revise her campaign materials this way, it says a lot about what’s still acceptable to the voters she’s courting.

Neela Bannerjee at Slate scrupulously avoids the Jake Knotts “Nikki the Secret Sikh Raghead” route — Bannerjee is herself of East Indian heritage — but why is it necessary to dwell on Haley’s Sikh ancestry?

Assimilation to a big amorphous “American” identity has been, historically, a slow process for immigrant groups, one that occurs over the course of three or four generations. And some people never discard their hyphenated history. More than 150 years after the Potato Famine, for example, Irish-Americans still tend to be chauvinistic about their heritage — quite proudly Irish, and also often Catholic in the same chip-on-the-shoulder way, as if it would be a personal insult to mistake them for a Methodist or a Lutheran.

Defining oneself as distinct from the Vanilla-American — that stereotypical Wonder-Bread-and-Miracle-Whip WASP — has become a sort of geneaological parlor game since the 1960s. Nowadays, even the blandest of Anglo-American yuppies seem to feel obligated to put an ethnic asterisk beside their ancestry, as if to signify that they’re down with the whole multicultural-diversity agenda.

Sheriff Bart in Blazing Saddles: “My grandmother was Dutch.”

Well, OK. If someone wants to trot out their family tree to make a point, I’m fine with that and will happily share my own pedigree, all the way back to the 18th-century South Carolina forebear through whom I am a distant cousin of that worthless a–hole Republican who lost the election to Obama. (End my family’s shame: Vote for J.D. Hayworth!)

Notice, however, that liberals only want to interrogate the religious and ancestral loyalties of Republicans. Democrats are off-limits.

Anyone who so much as mentions Barack Obama’s middle name is automatically presumed to be a racist Birther wackjob, but the editors at Slate have no problem letting Neela Bannerjee devote 670 words to examining Haley’s Sikh-to-Christian conversion with the suggestive headline, “Nikki, aka Nimrata,” complete with this kind of helpful information:

Punjabis like Haley are often lighter-skinned than the world’s notion of what Indian looks like.

Oh, yeah, and Bannerjee brings up Bobby Jindal for good measure, because it’s always vaguely suspicious to liberals if a Republican isn’t 100% Premium Saltine cracker.

White Guilt, American Shame

If you’ve read Shelby Steele”s book White Guilt, you understand that liberals are engaged in a multi-level strategy to define “Republican” and “conservative” as negative identities by employing a sort of racial jiu-jitsu:

  • Whiteness is bad — If your ancestors arrived with the Pilgrims at Plymouth Rock, you should be ashamed of yourself, you imperialist oppressor. Not only are white people genetically predisposed to genocidal racism but they are also, at the same time, effete and inauthentic. Ergo, if you’re white, the only way you can purge yourself of this congenital blood-guilt (and implicit lack of ethnic coolness) is through displays of empathy and solidarity with the downtrodden brown masses.
  • Assimilation is bad — Perhaps you are fortunate enough not to be descended from those wicked Dead White Males who raped the continent and annihilated its indigenous peoples. It is therefore necessary that you distinguish yourself as Something Else. You must emphasize that you’re Czech or Greek or Polish because to identify as a regular Vanilla-America would be to implicate yourself in the historic hatefulness of slaveowners like George Washington, Injun-killers like Andrew Jackson and Jap-haters like Harry Truman. Immigrant and their descendants must therefore cling tightly to their hyphens, lest they assimilate themselves into complicity in America’s criminal past.
  • America is bad — Given that its founding, expansion and ascent to superpower status were works of unmitigated White Evil, America can only be “good” insofar as there is Hope that we can Change it into something it never originally was. Only by committing yourself to the Progressive mission of remaking White Evil America into a force for World Peace and Social Justice can you redeem yourself as a sophisticated, enlightened and well-meaning person — a cosmopolitan, a bien-pensant.
  • America’s allies are bad — And, by the logical observse, America’s enemies are good. We must therefore abrogate the “special relationship” with England, embrace Castro’s Cuba, and take up the cause of Good Brown Palestinians at the expense of White Evil Israel.
  • Conservative Republicans are the ultimate bad — To reject the liberal worldview is to repudiate what Thomas Sowell has so aptly described as The Vision of the Anointed. Conservatives thus reveal themselves to be benighted — ignorant and probably also malevolent — by suggesting that the United States is a good country whose Constitution, cultural heritage and traditional institutions are worth defending and preserving.

Like Goethe’s devil cited by Marx in the Nineteenth Brumaire, Progressives believe “everything that exists” — in the sense of anything a conservative would recognize as distinctly American — “deserves to perish.” Because conservatives oppose this crusade to destroy America, and because Republicans are de facto the conservative party in American politics, to be a conservative Republican is to define oneself, in the eyes of the Left, as the Enemy of All That Is Good and True.

Angry Mobs of Enlightened Liberals

That reference to Goethe and Marx, by the way, was borrowed from David Horowitz. In 2007, when Horowitz appeared at George Washington University, I watched in fascination as a small crowd of student protesters outside the auditorium chanted: “Racist! Sexist! Anti-gay! David Horowitz go away!”

It so happens that Horowitz isn’t remotely racist or anti-gay. Although I’ve never really seen him address feminism in any direct fashion, I suppose that by the term “sexist” the students meant to suggest Horowitz was against abortion — and I’m pretty sure he’s pro-choice.

The reality of who Horowitz is and what he believes, you see, was entirely irrelevant to the slogans chanted by those GWU students. They have been indoctrinated to believe that all genuinely decent people are obliged to fight relentlessly against racism, sexism and homophobia (which, as they’ve also been taught, are the bedrock principles of the GOP) and because David Horowitz is a Republican, he automatically represents these Bad Republican Things.

David Horowitz is the son of Communist Party members, still fundamentally committed to many of the same liberal ideals that motivated those slogan-shouting students. Yet his knowledge, beliefs and experiences have led Horowitz to identify himself as a Republican and to ally himself, generally, with conservatives. In answer to the old radical slogan that Pete Seeger turned into a folk anthem — “Whose Side Are You On?” — Horowitz answers, “Not yours, pal.”

Not only does this apostasy provoke the Left to shout false accusations of hatefuless at Horowitz, but it also grants them license to dismiss him with a single word:

“Jew.”

Yes, that’s it! He’s a necon, a Zionist imperialist, a hypocritical special pleader whose opinions on every issue foreign and domestic are merely the external manfestations of his ethno-religious chauvinism. The Left is only too happy to suggest you can’t trust a word David Horowitz says because he is a Jew.

Kenyan Savior vs. Punjabi Menace

No one may do to liberals what liberals do to Horowitz without being condemed as a hatemonger. Critics of Chuck Schumer must be careful never to make any reference to Schumer’s Jewishness. No opponent of Loretta Sanchez can suggest that her Hispanic ancestry somehow explains her political commitments. And don’t even think about criticizing Al Sharpton.

A sort of ideological force-field surrounds liberal ethnic loyalties, so that while Barack Obama may invoke his Kenyan paternity as a political asset — and what else is the authorial teleology of Dreams From My Father? — no opponent is permitted to invoke this factor as a potential liability. The liberal worldview confers upon Obama the presumption of victimhood and then waits vigilantly for opportunities to denounce the presumed victimizers, i.e., Evil White Republicans.

Nikki Haley’s Punjabi ancestry and Sikh upbringing are not similarly off-limits to liberals, because liberals carry with them the presumption of goodwill. If liberals can caricature David Horowitz as a crafty scheming Jew — which is what a liberal means when he calls Horowitz a “neocon” — then it is perfectly fair game for a liberal to suggest that Nikki Haley is a phony sellout trying to pass herself off as a white Christian.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: It’s wrong to accuse liberals of not having standards.

They have exactly two — one for them, and one for everybody else.

America, the Abstraction

“Contrast the Republican concept of a special place called America (with The Constitution as its defining document) against the idea of America as an abstraction; a transient anomaly in a world destined for some type of elite centralization.”
— Howard Towt

World Cup Overkill: Associated Press Writes 1,068 Words About 1-1 Tie

There ought to be some kind of special Pulitzer for this:

Clint Dempsey became only the second American to score in two World Cups, getting the tying goal in the 40th minute on a blunder by goalkeeper Robert Green. Howard made six saves, withstanding a second-half barrage by Wayne Rooney and his celebrated teammates. . . .
Anticipation had built for six months for the much-hyped game, the first competitive meeting between the nations since the famous 1-0 U.S. upset at the 1950 World Cup in Brazil. There were viewing parties across America, and several Major League Soccer teams opened their stadiums to show the match from across the world on large video boards. . . .

And on and on it goes. Like this was the seventh game of the World Series, the Super Bowl, the NCAA Final Four, the Indy 500 and the Battle of Armageddon, all rolled into one.

A 1-1 tie. In a first-round game.

They didn’t even have a riot. What kind of soccer game is that, huh?

Ace of Spades Smacks Charles Johnson in a Post Every New* Blogger Should Read

* And by “new,” I mean if you haven’t been at it
since Ace started with a Blogspot site in 2003.

When trying to explain the principle of reciprocal linkage (Rule 2), I’ve often wanted to quote a post Ace of Spades wrote about three years ago, in which he explained how you link somebody so as to throw traffic, how to quote and hat-tip, etc. But alas, I couldn’t find the post.

Now, however, Ace has reprised that theme in a memorable pimp-slapping of Charles Johnson:

Let me talk about “swiping stories.” Johnson believes that if he throws in a lame hat-tip at the end of a post, he hasn’t “swiped a story,” because he’s given you attribution.
That’s not the case. A lame hat-tip at the end of a post covers one’s ass, I suppose, in terms of attribution, but it fails to do what a proper link is supposed to do: Throw some traffic.
Some blogs are deliberately “gateway blogs,” throwing out traffic wide and far in general furtherance of good-guy blogger boosterism. . . .
On the other hand, some blogs are very jealous and ungenerous about throwing links and traffic to “competitors.” Some blogs fancy themselves not “gateway blogs” but “destination blogs,” and attempt to set themselves up as the only blog you need to read.
Not a portal, then, but a terminus. . . .

Anybody who has read this blog long enough knows that Ace is my blogging role model. Back when I was hopelessly trapped in the stifling straitjacket of Washington journalism, I envied Ace because he could say exactly what he wanted — and be hugely successful!

My admiration for Ace is so enthusiastic as to be kinda creeptastic and stalkerish, like a teenage girl chasing the Jonas Brothers. Yet he is so merciful that not once has he threatened to take out a restraining order against me. And he actually links me once in a while.

So read the whole thing.

Uh . . . I’ll be in my bunk.

UPDATE: To put the Ace/LGF situation in context, some explanation is in order. There was a minor media-bias kerfuffle this past week in regard to the Gaza “Freedom Flotilla,” and I didn’t blog about it because the source was Little Green Footballs. But it got picked up in the media and everybody else blogged about it, including Yid With Lid:

Reuters is now doctoring its pictures from the violence aboard the Guerrilla Flotilla.

YWL got linked at Hot Air, and this prompted Charles Johnson to go thermonuclear on Allahpundit:

“So what kind of vindictive, unprofessional, unethical creep would write about a story and give all the credit to other people, knowing full well that the story originated at LGF?
“The dishonest dirtbag goes by the name of ‘Allahpundit,’ and he writes for Hot Air.”

To which Allahpundit replied:

It seems I’m “scum,” a “thief,” and a “dishonest dirtbag” because I thought Sammy Benoit had found the initial photo of Reuters cropping out weapons. Turns out it was Charles Johnson at LGF who broke the story; Sammy’s post only mentioned him in connection with the second photo. So here’s the official correction from a scummy dirtbag thief.

Paleo Pat at Political Byline called attention to this:

Has this man forgotten just how badly he stabbed the right in the back? Has Charles Johnson forgotten how badly that he defamed Pamela Geller, by calling her a Nazi Sympathizer? This happened more than once by the way; the first time almost ruined her blogger career.

OK, then Ace linked Political Byline and pointed out that Charles Johnson has been known to swipe a story without proper credit — citing as one example an occasion when LGF hogged the credit for a Dan Riehl item.

Dan’s thrown a few light jabs at CJ the past couple of days — including one about the Geller PayPal situation — but he hasn’t gotten rough with LGF and probably won’t. But, oh, if he ever did . . .

UPDATE II: Now here we go. I hadn’t bothered to look at the post that provoked Ace’s latest response, but it perfectly exemplifies what went wrong with Charles Johnson:

Johnson recounts a dust-up in which Steve Gilbert at Sweetness & Light accused Johnson of “stealing one of his stories,” an accusation Johnson denied. But when Gilbert, per CJ, “threatened to ‘ruin my reputation’ with other bloggers” Johnson “preemptively wrote emails to several other bloggers.”

Now, I don’t know the backstory there, and Johnson uses it as pretext to publish private correspondence with Ace — a vicious betrayal, and a bell that can never be unrung. Yet that’s not the real “tell” here.

Why on earth was Charles Johnson so concerned about what another blogger might say about him to other bloggers — especially when Johnson himself at that time (March 2008) had been waging a merciless online vendetta against Pamela Geller and Robert Spencer for six months?

Kind of thin-skinned, don’t you think?

Can you say “guilty conscience,” boys and girls?

Proprietary rage over which blogger “stole” what story from whom is a routine fixture of the blogosphere. Being obsessed with one’s reputation to the point where you’re sending back-channel e-mails to other bloggers to “preemptively” defend yourself from an accusation of story-swiping . . .

To quote Allahpundit: Dude.

With the exception of my own reporting, nearly everything I blog about comes from either Memeorandum, Google News or Twitter. How the story gets to those places, I don’t much care. If either Instapundit or Ace links a story that gets picked up by other bloggers, that story will usually show up at Memeorandum — which seldom credits Ace or Insty, who may thereby be cheated out of deserved hat-tips.

Bloggers that big, however, usually have better things to do than to worry whether they get credited for every story they blog. And certainly it would be insanely time-consuming to keep up with the soap-opera plot-twists of which bloggers are mad at other bloggers.

That’s why it’s so bizarre to discover that Charles Johnson was “preemptively” e-mailing other bloggers that way in 2008. Why would Johnson worry that other bloggers might credit Steve Gilbert’s accusations?

With that e-mail, Johnson betrayed a profound narcissistic tendency. For Johnson then to wait more than two years to retaliate against Ace by publishing a private e-mail is unquestionably sociopathic.

Picture it, reader: Charles Johnson, once one of the most heralded members of the blogsophere, sitting there with archived e-mails from years ago, poring over his cache to retrieve and publish this e-mail he solicited while endeavoring to protect his own reputation.

Sick. And not merely sick, but evil.

Terrorist Jihad vs. the Tip Jar

What just happened to Pamela Geller at Atlas Shrugs ought to scare the bejeebers out of every blogger:

Paypal is calling Atlas a “hate” site and will close my account if I do not remove the paypal option from my website.

I just got off the phone with Pamela, who explained that this was almost certainly a response to media coverage of her organization’s “Leaving Islam” bus advertising campaign, e.g., the Associated Press:

The questions on the ads aren’t subtle: Leaving Islam? Fatwa on your head? Is your family threatening you?
A conservative activist and the organizations she leads have paid several thousand dollars for the ads to run on at least 30 city buses for a month. The ads point to a website called RefugefromIslam.com, which offers information to those wishing to leave Islam, but some Muslims are calling the ads a smoke screen for an anti-Muslim agenda.
Pamela Geller, who leads an organization called Stop Islamization of America, said the ads were meant to help provide resources for Muslims who are fearful of leaving the faith. . . .

Wait, did you notice that? Guess who the Associated Press quotes as “some Muslims”?

Faiza Ali, of the New York chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations

One may surmise that CAIR and others complained to PayPal in an effort to eliminate online revenue for Geller and SOIA. And make no mistake: Online revenue is just about all she’s got.

This is the same thing that the Left has done against Glenn Beck’s advertisers: The minute any conservative begins to have any real success — WHAM!

Some are suggesting a boycott of PayPal but — good Lord! — how else am I supposed to pay for my daughter’s wedding next month? I need that money, and since Amazon ended its online payment service, PayPal’s got a monopoly.

Let’s hope PayPal can be made to understand that they’re being used as weapons in a financial jihad against truth and will rescind their fatwa against Geller.  In the meantime, those who wish to help Pamela Geller and SOIA can send checks by mail to:

Pamela Geller
PO Box 121
1040 1st Avenue
New York NY 10022

If jihadis can shut down our tip-jars, the independent conservative blogosphere is doomed, people.

UPDATE: Carl in Jerusalem:

Paypal has a subsidiary in Israel. Are they going to cut off pro-Israel speech too?
What is wrong with these people?

If you want to write a persuasive, intelligent and courteous e-mail asking PayPal to reconsider its threat to Pamela Geller, please send it to [email protected].

UPDATE II: Ed Driscoll and Instapundit both relate this to the “We Con the World” video being taken down, but video takedowns are already a too-familiar story in online political combat. A direct attack on a major source of funding for the blogsophere? That’s news.

And I’ve got a wedding to pay for!

UPDATE III: Top thread on Memeorandum, and I felt obliged to do some reporting at The American Spectator:

“What do they expect me to do, stop blogging about jihad?” said Geller . . .

Which was linked by Instapundit. Pamela rolls hard, as they say, but the Jawas note that the pro-jihad Revolution Muslim site still has a PayPal button.

Thanks for the linkage at Soylent Green and Bread Upon the Waters, while Pamela also gets a shout-out from Kathy Shaidle’s sweetie Blazing Cat Fur. As Pamela told me, this incident came in the immediate aftermath of her recent high-profile media appearances, such as this appearance in a Reuters news video:

Notice that the spokeswoman whom Reuters chooses as “balance” to Geller is Daisy Khan, whose organization is behind the “Ground Zero mosque” idea. And who is footing the bill for the American Society for Muslim Advancement?

Moreover, financial records show that in fiscal year 2009, ASMA collected a number of international donations that totaled, collectively, at least $1.3 million. The largest sum, $576,312, came from Qatar. ASMA also received $481,942 from Holland’s Millennial Development Goals Fund; $144,752 from the Carnegie Corporation of New York; and $53,664 from the United Nations Population Fund.

Read the rest of that — not just the foreign money, but Carnegie, Rockefeller, Ford, a veritable Who’s Who of elite philanthropic foundations, none of whom ever gave a penny to any conservative group. And what kind of religious organization would accept money from the United Nations Population Fund? They’re WorldWide Abortion Inc. Their motto  might as well be “World Peace Through Dead Babies.”

So the Ground Zero mosque people get millions from big-time foundations, plus the United Nations and all kinds of foreign money, and Pamela Geller can’t be permitted to push back with a few thousand bucks raised via PayPal?

Hello?

People are calling for an immediate boycott of PayPal, but as I pointed out in the comments below, this “usage” notice was sent to Pamela on a Saturday morning. Executives at PayPal haven’t had a chance to realize what a P.R. disaster they’ve got on their hands here, once the major media are forced to start reporting this story. 

The person in the PayPal “Acceptable Usage” department who threw the word “hate” at Pamela Geller is likely to have a very bad Monday at the office.