BULLETIN: 5.0 Earthquake Hits Vanuatu; New Poll Shows Rick Santorum Headed for ‘Commanding Win’ in Louisiana Primary

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BATON ROUGE, Louisiana
News that the South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu was shaken today by a 5.0-magnitude earthquake reached me at just the same time as news that the latest poll shows Rick Santorum way ahead here:

Rick Santorum is headed for a commanding win in Louisiana on Saturday. We find him with 42% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, and 2% for Buddy Roemer.
It’s interesting to look at these numbers in the context of last week’s results in Alabama and Mississippi. Mitt Romney averaged 30% in those two contests, and that’s about where he is here. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich combined for 64% in those two contests, and they combine for a relatively similar 60% here. The big difference though is that conservative voters appears to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now, and that’s why Louisiana is likely to be much more lopsided than either of last week’s contests were. If Gingrich was completely out of the race Santorum would have a 22 point lead, 53-31, over Romney here with Paul at 11%
Santorum’s entire lead in Louisiana is coming with the furthest right factions of the Republican Party. He leads Romney 50-23 with ‘very conservative’ voters, 44-22 with Tea Partiers, and 51-23 with Evangelicals. Santorum also appears to have the late momentum on his side. Among those who’ve decided who to vote for in the last few days he’s at 47% to just 25% for Romney. That suggests he could end up winning by an ever wider margin than he has in this poll.

Ever since Dec. 1 — when an earthquake in Vanuate coincided with Santorum’s prediction that he would “surprise a lot of people” in Iowa — there has been a weird correlation between seismic events in the former French colony and surprising developments in the 2012 presidential campaign. The tale of my interest in this tiny island republic is perhaps too complex to relate in detail, but here are the key posts:

Basically, my wild mood swings, mirroring the gyrations in the GOP presidential race, have become inextricably linked to my ambitions for a diplomatic career as the first U.S. Ambassador to Vanuatu, a gig Rick Santorum promised me in early December when he was still in single digits in all the polls. (Don’t even think about reneging on that promise, Rick: I’ve got it on audio.)

That earthquake in Vanuatu on Dec. 1 became, to me, the cosmic portent — In Hoc Signo Vinces — that Santorum was 2012’s Man of Destiny and now, despite all the gaffes and disappointments and pundit talk about Romney’s “inevitability,” what do we see? Voters “abandoning Gingrich for Santorum,” so that the primary in Louisiana (once counted solidly in Newt’s column) is now looking like a double-digit blowout victory for Santorum.

You think Romney is “inevitable”? OK. Just don’t say it too loudly. God might hear you, and if The Big One hits Vanuatu . . .

Well, strange things keep happening. Probably just a coincidence.

UPDATE: Didn’t I just say strange things keep happening?

Newt: Why does Obama ‘behave the way
that people would think’ he’s Muslim?

Is that a “gaffe”? Is it just Newt’s desperate bid for for fringe votes? Or has Newt made a legitimate point that he might not bother to bring up in public if he weren’t so far down in the polls?

I’m just askin’ questions . . . Also, for reasons too complex to explain briefly, you should go hit Lisa Graas’s tip jar immediately.

Just do it, please.

UPDATE II: Almost forgot to hat-tip CO2Hog and Tah Deetz for the Twitter tip about the Vanuatu earthquake.


What Santorum Said, What He Meant, and What Romneybots Want You to Think

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BATON ROUGE, Louisiana
I posted the video last night, but considering the reaction, let’s once more let everybody see for themselves what Rick Santorum said:

“Republicans and conservatives who are so worried about, you know, getting control back — ‘We have to win and so we have to nominate someone who can appeal to more’ — no, you win by giving people a choice. You win by giving people the opportunity to see a different vision for our country, not someone who’s just going to be a little different than the person in there. If you’re going to be a little different, we might as well stay with what we have instead of taking a risk with what may be the Etch A Sketch candidate of the future.”

Santorum was making the same argument Phyllis Schlafly made in her 1964 classic, A Choice Not an Echo. He is saying something he has said many times — and something Newt Gingrich has also said — that Romney fails to offer a clear contrast to Obama. In this context, when Santorum said “we might as well stay with what we have,” he clearly meant to express what the reaction of regular voters would be, if presented with someone who is just “a little different” than the incumbent.

Santorum did not express himself clearly, but awkwardness of expression is not the same as endorsing Barack Obama’s re-election.

The “Etch-a-Sketch” crew is claiming that Santorum actually said he would vote for Obama, thus prompting Santorum to issue a statement:

Republican Presidential Candidate Rick Santorum made the following comment in reaction to the claim he would vote for President Obama.
Rick Santorum said: “I would never vote for Barack Obama over any Republican and to suggest otherwise is preposterous. This is just another attempt by the Romney Campaign to distort and distract the media and voters from the unshakeable fact that many of Romney’s policies mirror Barack Obama’s. I was simply making the point that there is a huge enthusiasm gap around Mitt Romney and it’s easy to see why — Romney has sided with Obama on healthcare mandates, cap-and-trade, and the Wall Street bailouts. Voters have to be excited enough to actually go vote, and my campaign’s movement to restore freedom is exciting this nation. If this election is about Obama versus the Obama-Lite candidate, we have a tough time rallying this nation. It’s time for bold vision, bold reforms and bold contrasts. This election is about more than Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum — this campaign is about freedom and I will fight to restore your freedoms.”

UPDATE: Other conservatives are coming to Santorum’s defense, including Matt Lewis at The Daily Caller:

His argument is (and you can disagree with it) is that voters just might make the calculus that, if you’re going to have to settle for Obama Lite any way, you might as well stick with Obama.
… If you’re going to have to settle for RomneyCare, why not stick with ObamaCare?
(Note: I know Santorum said “we,” but I’ve heard the shtick enough times to know what he meant. And what he meant was that “we” — the voters — want a clearer contrast.)
Santorum has been making this argument for months. This is a regular line of attack.

(Hat-tip: Pundette via Smitty on Twitter.) Lewis notes that, when a candidate has been saying the same thing over and over for months — as presidential candidates must do in their stump speeches — they sometimes gaffes by attempting to improvise a fresh iteration of what is (to them) a familiar point.

Santorum probably didn’t realize what he had said (as opposed to what he meant to say) and didn’t recognize how it might be misinterpreted until after it blew up into a huge “controversy.” And, frankly, I believe, many voters wouldn’t disagree even with what he actually said: Why take a chance on Romney — a guy who has been on both sides of every major issue — rather than just muddle along with the status quo?

A lot of voters indeed think that way, and the “Roll Over for Romney” crowd — who want conservatives to stop resisting Mr. Inevitable — are likely to re-learn an unfortunately familiar lesson if Mitt is the nominee.

RECENTLY:

Could Individuals Eventually Sue To Escape Social Security?

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by Smitty

Making clear that the courts remain open for citizens who believe they are being “strong-armed” by the government, the Supreme Court on Wednesday gave property owners a right to sue the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to make an immediate challenge to an EPA order to stop a development that the agency says threatens the nation’s waters.

It is almost as though some theoretical notion of liberty remains in the U.S., despite the best efforts of the Progressive Universal Knowledge Enterprise. My hope is that we may eventually build upon this case to take on the bankrupt illusion of a safety net that grows, cancerously, within the federal government. I really don’t care about the return of what has been taken from me under those false promises: the more important thing is to protect the World’s Youngest Blogger from further damage to his future from them. As with any bad relationship, the answer is to cut ties, walk away, and club any emotional attachment like a baby seal.

Like the Heller case, it seems that it takes far too long for common sense to work its way through the Byzantine wreck that our courts have become. But, as I’ve been trying to tell Stacy, despair is not a strategy: we are going to have to work to recover some notion of America in an incremental way, over time. Victory belongs to those who show up, those who demonstrate stamina, and those that pass the ideas to a new generation.

Don’t give up the ship!

via SCOTUSblog via FedSoc Blog

Simple Question For The Wicked Witch Of The West

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by Smitty

Alongside Reps. Steny Hoyer of Maryland and James Clyburn of South Carolina at a ceremony on Capitol Hill, Pelosi said, “After 100 years of trying, finally we passed health care for all Americans as a right for all — not just a privilege for a few. It honored the vows of our founders: Of life, a healthier life; liberty; the freedom to pursue our own happinesses.”

Which question is: do I retain the absolute liberty not to participate in this anti-liberty farce?

Nancy Pelosi, you are ideas are false, and may God have mercy on you for your Orwellian abuse of human thought. Most of what I really feel like saying is the sort of material that, getting on midnight, is best not committed to the un-forgetful internet.

John Dennis for Congress!

via DC Caller and Hot Air

LIVE AT FIVE – 03.23.12

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— compiled by Wombat-socho


TOP NEWS
Army To Charge SSG Bales With Murder For Panjwai Massacre

SSG Robert Bales

To be charged, court-martialed on seventeen counts of murder today

NCTC To Keep Data On Americans With No Terror Ties
Privacy advocates concerned about implications of data mining


Merah’s Murders Upend French Presidential Race
National Front’s Le Pen claims vindication of party’s anti-Islamist stance



POLITICS
Senate Moves Insider Trading Bill To White House

Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) discusses his STOCK Act

Bars insider trading by Congressmen, Senators and staff

Sanford Police Chief Steps Aside Over Trayvon Martin Case

The New Political Weapon: Etch-A-Sketch


Obama Defends His Policy On Keystone Pipeline

Media Matters Ad Campaign Aims To Silence Rush Limbaugh

NJ Senate Committee Rejects Christie Judicial Nominee Phillip Kwon

DeMint Urges GOP To Unite Behind Romney

Marine Plans To Attend Tea Party Event Despite Impending Dismissal



THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Crude Oil Falls Almost 2% On Fears Of Declining PRC Use
Bagel Pioneer Murray Lender Dies, 81
Bank Of America Getting Into The Landlord Business
US Jobless Claims Hit Four-Year Low
New McDonald’s CEO Unlikely To Tamper With Chain’s Winning Ways
T-Mobile Closes Seven Call Centers, Lays Off 3300 Workers
Hacktivists Biggest Data Thieves Of 2011
AT&T Accused Of Billing Feds For Nigerian Scam Calls
Google Moves To Penalize Sites With Excessive SEO
Minecraft Coming To XBox 360 May 9: Do Not Adjust Your Television
Google Takes “Street View” Up The Amazon River
Ohio Art Stock Surges After Romney Advisor’s Gaffe



SPORTS
Louisville Takes Out #1 Michigan State

Louisville's Chane Behanan reacts to the Cardinals' win

Cardinals upset Big Ten champs 57-44

Syracuse Edges Badgers, Advances To Elite 8

Elway, Tebow Trade Stories Don’t Match Up

Malkin Upstages Radulov As Pens Rout Predators To Clinch Playoff Spot

Clippers Hit New Lows In Loss To Hornets

Corona Scores 3 As US Routs Cuba 6-0 In World Cup Qualifying Round

Flyers Top Caps 2-1 In Shootout

Morse’s Opening Day Status In Question As Back Woes Continue



FAMOUS FOR BEING FAMOUS
Hilary Duff: It’s A Boy!

Hilary Duff and hubby Mike Comrie

Luca Cruz Comrie, seven pounds, six ounces

Coroner: Whitney Houston Drowned, Had Cocaine In System

Rihanna Makes Midnight Visit To Ashton Kutcher’s Pad, Doesn’t Leave Until 4 AM

Nicole Richie Showing Cleavage, Healthy Body In Bikini

The Host: Teaser Trailer For Stephanie Meyers’ New SF Movie

NBC’s “Smash” Renewed For Second Season, Without Key Player

Pregnant Snooki Walks Roommate’s Dog In Platform Heels

J-Lo Gets Flustered Over Diddy At “American Idol”

Britney Spears In Court To Discuss Conservatorship



FOREIGNERS
Pope’s Visit To Mexico An Answer To Catholics’ Prayers
UNSC Condemns Mali Coup
UNHRC Presses Sri Lanka On Civilian Deaths During Civil War
Horror Becomes Everyday As Self-Immolation Protests Against PRC Sweep Tibet
NATO To Cut Funding For Afghan Security Forces BY Two-Thirds
Protests Loom As Hong Kong Braces For New Leader
Fianna Fail Moves To Expel Former PM Ahern Over Questionable Finances
Madonna Vows To Oppose Gay Law In Putin’s Hometown
Damaging Coup Rumors Ricochet Across PRC



BLOGS & STUFF
Byron York: Romney’s Foes Launch Etch-A-Sketch Attack
Powerline: Did Everyone Take Stupid Pills This Week?
Weasel Zippers: Obama Campaign Censoring YouTube Comments On Propaganda Video
Karl Rove: “The Road We’ve Traveled” With Obama
iOwnTheWorld: Media Matters Ratchets Up Their Limboycott
Hit & Run: Obamacare’s Defenders Still Aren’t Taking Challenges To The Mandate Seriously
Lonely Conservative: Virginia Middle School Assignment – Opposition Research On Republicans
Jim Geraghty: Our Recent History – The Undiscovered Country
Protein Wisdom: Romney Says W And Henry Paulson Saved Country From Depression

It’s Past Midnight in Louisiana, and We’re Already Knee-Deep in Craziness

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BATON ROUGE, Louisiana
While I was driving six hours across Alabama and Mississippi to get here, and then covering Newt Gingrich’s appearance at a Tea Party forum on the LSU campus, it seems that everbody went crazy:

What’s wrong with you people, huh? I turn my back for a few hours, and when I get back online, you have all gone crazy. As for me, I’ve been busy doing Neutral Objective Journalism:

Newt Gingrich was explaining to a Tea Party forum here Thursday night why he is best qualified to be President Obama’s Republican opponent. Citing his involvement in the 1980 and 1988 presidential campaigns and his leadership of the 1994 “Contract With America” campaign that elected a GOP congressional majority, Gingrich said, “I helped design campaigns that won huge elections.”
Unfortunately for Newt, he has failed to design a campaign that can win him the Republican nomination, and he is expected to lose Saturday’s Louisiana primary. The most recent polls (including the latest from Rasmussen Reports) show the former Speaker of the House in third place here, trailing far behind Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney. Another defeat in the Deep South, coming after last week’s losses in Mississippi and Alabama, will likely bring his presidential bid to an effective end. And then the blame game will begin. . . .

Read the rest at The American Spectator. And try to keep your sh*t together long enough for me to get a few hours of sleep. There’s only so much craziness I can handle, and I’ve already hit my weekly quota.

 

 

UPDATE: Via Allahpundit, Santorum’s crazy video:

C’mon, Rick: Get it together. I’ve got an ambassadorship at stake, man.

Update (Smitty): linked at Race 4 2012

World’s Youngest Blogger On #OccupyResoluteDesk’s Solyndra Blame: “Keep Pluckin’ That Chicken”

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Dude, you’re so transparently full of feathers that even an eight-month-old can tell that your arguments came from the far end of the chicken:

“Obviously, we wish Solyndra hadn’t gone bankrupt,” Obama said. “But understand: This was not our program per se.”
“Congress — Democrats and Republicans — put together a loan guarantee program. . .

Wow, Mr. President. When you were my age, and you did your diaper a Solyndra, did you try to pin some of that blame on Republicans, too? It really is all about pointing the finger, isn’t it, Mr. Courage?
Dad says that if I grow up to emulate you even slightly, Barack, that he shall have failed utterly as a father. Keep pluckin’ that chicken, sir.

Update: more at Gateway Pundit