The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Baron Conrad Black of Crossharbour Nonplussed By Newt-mentum

Posted on | December 23, 2011 | 6 Comments

by Smitty

Quite an interesting read over at NRO, where Black theorizes in weighty philosophical terms about the state of the GOP scrum. There is an audio version of the article, but, as it was not read in John Houseman tones, I killed it quickly. A taste:

The Obama administration doesn’t know whether to scream for joy at the thought of facing the human grenade [Newt], or to cling to its assurance that Romney is the candidate. The character-assassination squads, though their ranks are now so deep they are the largest such work party since the scores of people who crowded into the firing squad to execute the Ceausescus, couldn’t believe their good fortune. But despite a replication of the 25-battleship sustained bombardment of Okinawa, they haven’t brought Newt down. There is a sci-fi quality to him and there always was, and it is little wonder that thoughts of Frankenstein come to mind.

A littler later,

If Mitt couldn’t set anything on fire to this point, the tinder isn’t there, and efforts, even by first-class commentators such as Holman Jenkins, to perceive Newt’s destiny as warming Mitt up for the main event don’t make it. At this point — 235 years on from the Declaration of Independence, with much of the U.S. economy, public education, health care, and justice system in shambles — history will not be mocked by a Mitt-Newt death struggle for the honor of helping to affront nature and reason by reelecting a failed administration. Hegel has come to the rescue of James Madison. Newt is not the nominee; he’s the negation of Mitt, and the nomination will be deferred to the timely decision of the none-of-the-above majority.
Either Newt, too weighed down by darts, buckshot, and self-detonated combustion, will start to fade before the caucuses and primaries are too advanced, and one more declared non-Mitt, possibly Jon Huntsman, will arise; or the absence of a contender with a commanding lead will prevail until it is so close to the convention, or even at the convention, that there will be a draft of one of the non-runners, probably Jeb Bush.

What black is missing here is that if the conservative hoi polloi are so daft as to allow the Ruling Class to insert Huntsman, then the sleight-of-hand necessary to anoint Mitt would be trivial.

But Jeb Bush? Really? Other than saving Gaia by permitting the recycling of all the Democrat “No More Bush” signs, I can’t see much advantage to nominating Jeb. Which is not to say he’s less than a talented executive. Rather, if we’re so hard up in a population of 330 million for leadership that Jeb is it, we’re totally lost and might as well cling to Barack.

Some may see a brokered convention as a bad thing. It’s only bad if people continue bickering and arguing over ‘oo stabbed ‘oo. Remember, it’s politics. Keep the grieving short. Once there is a nominee, if everyone forms up behind that nominee, there is ample room for confidence. If conservatives play Barack’s game, and the fanatic followers of a certain candidate support a third-party run, there is much risk. So, as more candidates get the Herman Cain treatment, remember: there is a time to argue the fine tactical points of just how grossly unfair a lynching it was (or not), and there are times to write down some notes, set them aside, and focus on the larger picture of what must be done to restore the country, even if it’s not with your preferred candidate. Tough toenails.

via A Point of View

Category: Newt Gingrich, Republicans

Yeah, That Was Pretty Quoteworthy

Posted on | December 23, 2011 | 19 Comments

“Ye thought evil against me; but God meant it unto good.”
— Genesis 50:20 (KJV)

It’s strange sometimes how you find stuff to blog about. Some people are systematic — Smitty’s always sending me stuff he finds with a newfangled doohickey called a “feedreader” — but I’m kind of random myself.

Last night a reader e-mailed to say that Allahpundit had “stolen” the Virginia ballot-access story from me. You can compare Allah’s 8 p.m. post to the post I put up at 5:33 p.m. (extended with multiple updates), and see whether you think I might have merited at least a hat-tip. However, as I pointed out in replying to my e-mailer:

A. You can’t copyright an idea; and
B. Nobody owns the facts.

There have been occasions when some bloggers have made outrageous accusations that their material was “stolen” by other bloggers. Such accusations are always tiresome and usually mistaken. And in this particular case, it wasn’t as if I was down in Richmond doing original reporting from the Virginia elections office.

No harm, no foul.

Then I got looking at some of the comments on the Hot Air thread about the Virginia ballot story, and the internecine hostility was off the hook. People calling each other trolls and stuff, threatening to get people banned, etc. And toward the end, as the comment flamewar was petering out, somebody wondered why certain commenters had stopped flaming, and another commenter said he thought everybody had run off to the Quote-of-the-Day post. So I decided to check that out, and found this item about an analysis of Ron Paul’s personal investment portfolio, made public as part of his required FEC disclosure:

“At our request, William Bernstein, an investment manager at Efficient Portfolio Advisors in Eastford, Conn., reviewed Rep. Paul’s portfolio as set out in the annual disclosure statement. Mr. Bernstein says he has never seen such an extreme bet on economic catastrophe. ‘This portfolio is a half-step away from a cellar-full of canned goods and nine-millimeter rounds,’ he says.”

Which is a damned fine quote, I think everyone will agree.

But I never would have known about that, if it hadn’t been for the e-mail about Allah “stealing” the Virginia ballot story. This goes to show, I think, the lesson that Joseph derived from his experiences: His brothers hated him for being the favorite, and were willing to leave him to die, but one brother was merciful enough to suggest that instead they sell Joseph into slavery.

Perhaps you know the rest of the story: By God’s grace, Joseph rose to become a mighty minister in the kingdom of Egypt. And when the famine came, Joseph’s brothers were sent to seek food in the Pharoah’s kingdom. They did not recognize the minister as their lost brother Joseph, but he recognized them, and contrived to bring the whole family to Egypt.

When at last Joseph revealed to his brothers the truth — that he, the powerful vizier on whose goodwill they depended, was in fact the brother they had spitefully sold into slavery — his brothers were terrified at the prospect of his vengeance. But he sent them to fetch their father, and when the family was reunited, Joseph told his brothers, “ye thought evil against me; but God meant it unto good.”

Being a miserable excuse for a Christian, I rarely resort to preaching. Yet we are saved by God’s grace and not by our own merit, and nothing is so awesome to contemplate as the sovereignty of God, who has power to save whom He will, even the most wretched of sinners. And to those whom God favors He bestows blessings, preserving against all peril.

Now think about Joseph, who suffered the shame of bondage and yet remained faithful to God. Joseph rose to a position of authority and, through the blessing of prophetic dreams, was able to provide lifesaving food to his brothers when the famine came. His brothers deserved no favor from Joseph, yet he saw that the evil they had done him was somehow part of God’s will, a blessing and not a curse.

How ironic (but not, I think, accidental) that the “Quote of the Day” was about Ron Paul’s “doomsday portfolio” — much like Joseph storing up grain for the prophesied seven-year famine.

Whether or not the Apocalypse is around the corner (“the ancient Mayans could not be reached for comment“), we know that most of us will at some point in our lives experience hard times and trouble. And we do not know in advance who will be there to help us when we need help. But like the traveler waylaid on the road to Jericho, we find that whoever helps us in our time of trouble is truly our friend, our neighbor, our brother.

So the person we may think of as our enemy — the despised Samaritan, or the brother we sold into slavery — could some day prove to be that “angel unaware” whom God has sent for our deliverance. Or it may be that we unexpectedly find ourselves in a position to act the part of the Samaritan in the parable, showing mercy to those who hate us.

As I say, I am a miserable excuse for a Christian, full of stiff-necked pride and prone to wrathful anger. Nevertheless, God is merciful toward me and so when I saw all those commenters slicing each other up at Hot Air, quarreling over nothing in the comments on that “stolen” post — well, wasn’t that exactly the lesson I needed to see?

Evidence of God’s love and mercy is everywhere around, if only we’ll take the time to look for it. For if God is sovereign, even an atheist is somehow part of the Divine Plan, and we dare not presume to know what purpose God has in mind for Allahpundit, when surely even Allahpundit doesn’t know.

Was my post “stolen”? I can’t make any such accusation, as the facts of the story aren’t my personal property, and certainly I don’t always bother to determine which blogger was “first” with a story before blogging about it myself. If bloggers hate me for every time I failed to give them a link or hat-tip they deserve, there would be a lot of bloggers hating me, too.

Let he who is without sin cast the first stone, you see. If we spend our lives looking around for reasons to hate people, we’ll find plenty of reasons, and next thing you know we’ll be like those crazy-ass commenters flaming each other in one of those Hot Air posts with 400 comments, where it gets to the point that the angry arguments in the comments have absolutely nothing to do with the subject of the post.

King of the Comment Trolls is not my idea of a worthy career ambitiion.

Blogging as therapy is an interesting concept, and I suppose some of my venting serves a therapeutic purpose, but you can’t make a career in the New Media racket simply by unloading your emotional baggage onto a blog. Or at least, that’s a limited readership niche, and Amanda Marcotte’s already got it covered pretty good.

Life is too short to be angry all the time, constantly on the lookout for new names to add to your enemies list. It’s only two days until Christmas, and the day after that I fly out to Iowa. Why should I waste time being angry because my blog didn’t get linked somewhere? With so many blessings to be grateful for — including tip-jar hitters — why sit around making myself miserable?

Merry Christmas, everyone — and may God bless you, Allahpundit!

Category: Christmas

LIVE AT FIVE – 12.23.11

Posted on | December 23, 2011 | 7 Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho


TOP NEWS
House GOP Surrenders On Payroll Tax Cut Extension

Speaker of the House John Boehner

Bill also includes unemployment extension, Medicare doc fix

Quake Rattles Tremor-Plagued Christchurch
5.8 on the Richter scale; some public buildings evacuated

Iraqi VP Hashemi Blames Baghdad Blasts On PM Maliki
Says Maliki’s security forces persecuting politicians instead of targeting terrorists



POLITICS
GOP Candidates Cover Iowa In Blizzard Of Negative Ads

Negative ads slam Newt Gingrich

Super PACs unload on former speaker

Prosecutors Say Assange, Manning Collaborated On Stealing Secret Documents

Ron Paul Newsletter Ad Forecast “Race War”


Army Report: Up To 64,000 Arlington Graves Misidentified Or Misplaced

Small Group Of Occupy Berkeley Campers Remains Despite Eviction Notice

John Edwards Calls In Sick, Seeks Delay In Trial

Federal Judge Blocks Part Of SC Immigration Law



THE ECONOMY, STUPID
U.S. Stocks Rally After Spanish Debt Auction
Gold Edges Up After Upbeat U.S. Data
NRC Approves New Standardized Reactors
Initial Jobless Claims Drop Despite Jobs Being Scarce
Best Buy Cancels Customer Orders After Running Out Of Goods
U.S. Approves NYSE/Deutsche Boerse Merger; EU Questions Remain
Kodak Reshuffles The Deck
Google To Pay Mozilla $300 Million Yearly In Search Deal
FCC Approves AT&T Purchase Of Spectrum From Qualcomm
Jacob Goldman, Founder Of Xerox PARC, Dies At 90
UC Berkeley To Save $75 Million In Switch From Microsoft Office To Google Apps
27% Of Photos & Videos Now Captured On Smartphones



SPORTS
Barkley Staying With Trojans

Junior QB Matt Barkley and USC coach Lane Kiffin

Barkley turns down NFL money for a shot at the Heisman and a national championship for USC

Nationals Trade Four Prospects To Oakland For LHP Gio Gonzalez



Beltran Inks Two-Year Deal With Cards Pending Physical

#1 Syracuse Pounds Tulane 80-61, Extends Streak To 13

Nyets Lose Lopez to Foot Surgery, Trade For Mehmet Okur

Kurt Busch Driving #51 Chevy After Signing With Phoenix Racing



FAMOUS FOR BEING FAMOUS
Adam Lambert Busted, Jugged In Finland

Adam Lambert and his unpronounceable Finnish boyfriend

Not to brawl at the gay bar, this is the law

Kris Humphries Booed, Heckled At Nyets Game

“Blair Witch” Star Heather Donohue Quit Hollywood To Grow Pot

Future Of “American Horror Story” Cast Unclear As Series Becomes Anthology

Brigitte Nielsen Hospitalized After Being Hit By Suspected Drunk Driver

“Fresh Prince” Cast Reunites For A Good Cause


Taylor Armstrong Filed For Divorce To Get Back On “Real Housewives”

Former Congressman Weiner’s Wife Gives Birth: It’s A Boy

Size 16 Adele Set To Grace Vogue’s Spring Cover



FOREIGNERS
Deep Mistrust Led To Pakistani Border Incident
France Takes Steps To Criminalize Armenian Genocide Denial; Turks Recall Ambassador
Nork Propagandists Work Quickly To Glorify Kim Jung-Un
Arab League Team Arrives In Syria As Violence Continues
Egyptian Activists Call For Mass Rally Against Army Rule
“If Abbas Embraces Hamas, He Is Walking Away From Peace”
Tymoshenko Drops Appeal Of Sentence, Calling Case A Farce
Canny Villagers Grasp Keys To Loosening Grip Of PRC



BLOGS & STUFF
Lonely Conservative: Economy So Bad, Millions Will Go To Debtors’ Prison Without Their #40Dollars
Moe Lane: On The Payroll Tax Cut
Allahpundit: Bombshell – Prominent Establishment Republican Endorses Establishment Republican Favorite
Shot In The Dark: Sometimes A Cigar Is Just A Cigar
Hit & Run: Ron Paul Roundup
Legal Insurrection: Biggest Question – What Took People So Long On Ron Paul?
Weasel Zippers: British Court Orders Baby Born To Single Muslim Mom To Be Adopted To Save Baby From Honor Killing
Gateway Pundit: Thanks, Barack! Gas Prices Hit Record High In 2011
Big Journalism: According To Politico, “Our Exhausted Chief Executive” too Busy Being Awesome To Vacation
Bob Owens: Radical Liberal DOJ Employee Admits To Perjury


SOTD: Walk This Way

Category: Live at Five

Minnesota Republican ‘Made Some Mistakes and Errors in Judgment’

Posted on | December 22, 2011 | 18 Comments

The words “sin” and “adultery” evidently did not occur to former state Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch:

Amy Koch apologized [Wednesday] for “engaging in a relationship with a Senate staffer,” though she did not name the individual.

(We are left to wonder if “engaging in a relationship” can be roughly translated as “making the beast with two backs,” or “getting to second base,” or perhaps “kinda like Lewinsky, IYKWIMAITYD.”)

Koch declared in an official statement that she’s “made some mistakes and errors in judgment” and has “deep regret.” She apologized to constituents, the Republican party, fellow legislators, and her family.

(“Deep regret” = “Damn it, I got caught.”)

“The events of recent days have been very difficult for me and those close to me,” Koch said.

(It wasn’t “events of recent days,” but more likely “events of certain previous nights,” that caused the difficulty.)

Koch did not address the public speculation about the identity of the staffer with whom she was having the affair, widely rumored to be communications chief Michael Brodkorb, who was ousted from his positions with the GOP in the wake of Koch’s resignation.
Instead, she emphasized that what she did with her staffer was not a crime. Although she had an “inappropriate relationship” with a subordinate, Koch denied she had “violated any laws or Senate rules” or “misused any state funds or property.”

(“Love is not a crime!”)

Koch ended her statement by writing that she needs to focus on the “challenging days ahead” while she works through “some very personal issues.”

“Personal issues”? Lady, you were shagging the help, OK?

Your aide was hired at taxpayer expense, and “civil servant” cannot plausibly be translated as “love slave.” Whatever “inappropriate” acts transpired between you — c’mon, spare us the tidy euphemisms and start spilling the sweaty details — these carnal indulgences weren’t just a matter of two lonely souls who met by random chance. You were the Boss, he was your subordinate, and both of you were supposed to be selflessly pursuing the public interest, rather than gettin’ some action.

Scoring. Heavy petting. Frottage. Knocking boots. Whatever universe of imaginable erotic possibilities may be encompassed in that annoyingly vague phrase “inappropriate relationship.”

And so it’s mighty damned convenient, Senator, when after flagrantly abusing the office with which you were entrusted by voters (and for which you were paid with taxes collected from the citizenry) you deny that these misdeeds were illegal or unethical, refuse to name the government employee whom you made your amorous plaything, minimalize this sordid scandal as “errors in judgment” and appeal for sympathy as the wounded victim while you deal with “very personal issues.”

Sigh.

No need to guess what the Left is doing with this ugly mess:

The gay and lesbian community of Minnesota has issued a letter of apology to recently resigned Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch for ruining the institution of marriage and causing her to stray from her husband and engage in an “inappropriate relationship.”
“On behalf of all gays and lesbians living in Minnesota, I would like to wholeheartedly apologize for our community’s successful efforts to threaten your traditional marriage,” reads the letter from John Medeiros. “We apologize that our selfish requests to marry those we love has cheapened and degraded traditional marriage so much that we caused you to stray from your own holy union for something more cheap and tawdry.”

What Amy Koch and (allegedly) Michael Brodkorb have done is not merely “mistakes” or “errors in judgment,” but is in fact a shameful disgrace of the Republican Party. Yet when I look at the Memeorandum thread about this story, I don’t see a single conservative blogger denouncing these two adulterous hypocrites.

Where’s the judgmentalism? Where’s the accountability, huh?

Senator Koch is married, as is her rumored stud muffin boy toy backdoor man paramour, and surely both of them as human beings need support and healing more than they need public scolding, but what about the needs of the Republican Party, the conservative movement and the citizens of Minnesota whom the Senator and her sweetheart were honor-bound to represent?

More than a week has passed since this scandal became public — I first blogged about it Sunday — and while Senator Koch resigned her post as Majority Leader and said she would not seek re-election next year, she evidently believes she can serve out her term.

Really? Are Minnesota Republicans going to permit their disgraced former leader to continue collecting her salary, as if nothing were amiss?

Hell’s bells, state Senate GOP leaders kept this scandal under wraps for nearly three months after a conscientious Senate staffer blew the whistle on Senator Koch’s workplace affair!

They’re not even sure whether to pursue ethics charges against her!

If this is not an ethics violation — if humping the office help isn’t against the Senate rules — hadn’t they better make some changes to the rules PDQ? Shouldn’t Minnesota Republicans be united in demanding Senator Koch’s immediate resignation? And shouldn’t conservative bloggers stop pretending that this sin-soaked public stain on their movement never happened?

Oh — and what’s this business of Minnesota officials refusing to name Senator Koch’s lover? Like he’s a victim or something? Like they’re afraid that he might sue them for libel or “inflicting emotional distress”? Has Michael Brodkorb denied being Senator Koch’s secret sweetheart? At some point, doesn’t an absence of denial become a sort of confession?

Guilty! Guilty! Guilty!

Go ahead and sue me, Brodkorb. I’ll plead insanity.

Category: Minnesota, Republicans, Scandal, Sex

Great News! John Dennis Undeterred In The Anti-Pelosi Struggle

Posted on | December 22, 2011 | 10 Comments

by Smitty

Do you remember John Dennis, brought to national attention by this Ladd Ehlinger outing?

I just got a phone call from his campaign, and he’s running in 2012. Granted, his numbers are even rougher than Patrick Murray’s against Jim Moran, but the struggle against the Ruling Class Overlords permits no rest.

John Dennis on FaceBook

Category: California, Democrats, John Denniss, Uncategorized

LatmaTV Delivers A Brutal Carol

Posted on | December 22, 2011 | 2 Comments

by Smitty

I guess this is what you call politically incorrect, but I’m not sure:

Category: humor, Video

Two Wrongs Don’t Make A Right. Two Thousand Wrongs? A Right Jolly Commie Start.

Posted on | December 22, 2011 | 14 Comments

by Smitty

IoawHawk called it a “Last minute entry sweeps Stupidest F’ing Thing You Will Read This Year awards”.

Neil Clark blazes beyond beclownment bounds:

No one questions that Havel, who went to prison twice, was a brave man who had the courage to stand up for his views. Yet the question which needs to be asked is whether his political campaigning made his country, and the world, a better place.
Havel’s anti-communist critique contained little if any acknowledgement of the positive achievements of the regimes of eastern Europe in the fields of employment, welfare provision, education and women’s rights. Or the fact that communism, for all its faults, was still a system which put the economic needs of the majority first.

Really, Eastern European realms?

  • employment So long as the bosses pretend to pay us, we will pretend to work.
  • welfare provision The Eastern European death toll stands at 1 million, according to the Black Book of Communism.
  • education All the political indoctrination you can stand, no?
  • women’s rights The right for young girls to be exploited by Olympic teams?

Read the whole thing. Just another fact-free, purely emotional appeal. Do remember: China and North Korea are still Communist. You can go there and get your Marxism totally on, baby.

Category: Europe, Uncategorized

Report: Huntsman, Bachmann, Santorum Fail to Make Virginia Primary Ballot UPDATE: Close Calls for Newt and Perry

Posted on | December 22, 2011 | 68 Comments

A certain number of petition signatures had to be delivered by close of business today in order for candidates to be included on the ballot for the March 6 Virginia Republican primary.

Rick Santorum supporter Lisa Graas just informed me by e-mail that, according to University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato, three candidates — Santorum, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman — failed to collect enough signatures in time to meet the qualifying deadline.

UPDATE: Andrew Cain of the Richmond Times-Dispatch reports:

Four Republican presidential candidates – Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Ron Paul — submitted paper work in time to qualify for Virginia’s March 6 primary ballot. . . .
Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman did not submit signatures with Virginia’s State Board of Elections by today’s 5 p.m. deadline.
Those who submitted the required signatures must clear another hurdle. The Republican Party of Virginia has until Tuesday to certify which candidates qualify. . . .
The State Board of Elections will turn over the petitions to the respective political parties for validating. Republican will begin the process Friday morning and have sought volunteers to help with the process.
Candidates must submit the signatures of at least 10,000 registered voters, with 400 from each of the 11 Congressional districts.
Romney submitted 16,026 signatures; Paul 14,361; Perry 11,911 and Gingrich 11,050.

UPDATE II: NBC’s Alex Moe reports:

The Gingrich campaign might be able breathe a sigh of relief.
After Newt Gingrich’s third event in less than 24 hours in Virginia, the former House speaker announced that his campaign has secured enough signatures to be on the ballot in the state.

Notice that Perry also barely cleared the 10,000-signature threshold. As Lisa Graas notes below, because some signatures will prove ineligible, it is recommended that candidates get at least 15,000 signatures to qualify. If Romney wants to dispatch lawyers to keep an eye on the validation process, they might be able to disqualify enough petitions to knock Perry and Gingrich off the ballot.

UPDATE III: Hat tip to The Right Scoop on Twitter for this Politico article by Emily Schultheis adding further background:

The state’s primary, which is slated for Super Tuesday on March 6, has some of the most stringent ballot access requirements in the country: 10,000 signatures from registered Virginia voters, including 400 from each of the state’s 11 congressional districts. And the elections board recommends getting at least 1.5 times the number of required signatures — 15,000 for presidential candidates — in case any of them are found to be invalid.
Mitt Romney, who filed Tuesday, was the only candidate to get 1.5 times the required number of signatures . . .
The Gingrich campaign had announced yesterday, after “scrambling” to organize in the state, that it had reached the required number of signatures.
The state parties will certify the signatures from each of the candidates and decide by Dec. 27 whether or not the four GOP candidates are eligible to appear on the ballot, Piper said.

UPDATE IV: OK, we’ve nailed down the facts. Now for the big-picture “What Does It Mean?” stuff that’s usually above my paygrade. (Because it’s Thursday evening three days before Christmas, all the super-genius Smart Guy pundits in D.C. are off the clock, so I’ll give it a shot.)

The Right Scoop says, “I wonder if they struggled to get the 10k signatures needed.” And yeah, of course that was the situation.

On a conference call with grassroots supporters last week, a top Santorum staffer had discussed ballot-access issues in several states. Virginia was singled out as a tough one, because of the “stringent” factor described in the Politico article: Not just the 10,000-signature minimum, but you have to get 400 signatures in each of 11 congressional districts, and the deadline hit in the middle of the holiday season, at the same time that the campaigns were going all-out in Iowa.

The Santorum people on the conference call were asking for Virginia volunteers to help with their ballot-access drive, saying they were hoping for a “Christmas miracle.” Given the low-budget situation with the Santorum campaign, they had no other choice but rely on volunteers. (Romney, of course, could afford to hire professional ballot-access people.)

Contrast Santorum’s situation to the ballot shortfalls by Huntsman and Bachmann — both of whom have raised and spent multiples of Santorum’s campaign budget — and Santorum’s shortfall in Virginia, while certainly disappointing, is not nearly as embarrassing as the others.

The fact that Gingrich was “scrambling” to hit the 10,000-signature threshold in Virginia shows the gap between his high-profile “front-runner” status and the relative weakness of his campaign operation.

But certainly the biggest question mark is why Perry could only get about 900 more Virginia signatures than Newt. The Perry campaign had millions of dollars cash-on-hand in early September, and has unloaded a huge amount on TV ads the past month, yet they barely cleared the Virginia ballot threshold? That doesn’t bode well.

So, yeah: Romney’s now looking a bit more likely as the nominee.

UPDATE V: Welcome, Instapundit readers!

Now that I think about it, a wild-card idea: If we assume a four-way Virginia primary between Romney, Newt, Perry and Paul — that is to say, if Romney’s big-money lawyers can’t disqualify either Newt or Perry — could Ron Paul win Virginia?

Think about it: Gingrich and Perry waging an all-out knife-fight to be the “Not Mitt” conservative candidate, both of them taking their shots at Romney. Meanwhile, Paul’s army of fanatics descend on the Old Dominion to turn out every possible libertarian/Constitutionlist/fringe-kook vote. In a four-way primary, if the other three candidates run in the 20%-30% range, couldn’t a maximum effort by the Paulistas produce a shocking upset in Virginia?

War-gaming these crazy possibilities is such fun, isn’t it?

UPDATE VI: Now a Memeorandum thread. I’m sitting here with Fox News on the TV in my home office, and they haven’t even mentioned this story yet. Everything’s all, “Congressional compromise, blah, blah, blah, Iraq, blah, blah, blah.” Maybe they don’t grasp the significance. Probably because their super-genius Smart Guy pundits are all on holiday this week.


Category: Election 2012, Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Virginia
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