Why Dan Balz Is Wrong

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Two words: “Conventional wisdom.”

With New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie forgoing a run for the Republican presidential nomination, two questions hold the key to the future of the GOP race: Can Mitt Romney finally expand his support within the party, and can Rick Perry bounce back?

Just for the sake of argument, let’s take Dan’s “two questions” seriously, in which case the answers are:

1. Who cares?

and

2. Not bloody likely.

As to Dan Balz Question One, if Mitt Romney manages to win the nomination, all the conservative spokesmen currently denouncing Romney as a worthless RINO will take a deep breath, put their integrity in a lockbox, and spent the months leading up to Nov. 6, 2012, proclaiming that Mitt is the Second Coming of Ronald Reagan. So it doesn’t matter, at this point in time, whether Romney can “finally expand his support.” What matters is whether any of the other candidates can put together enough mojo to beat Romney for the nomination.

We won’t know the answer to that before next April, so we’ll leave the cart of analysis behind the horse of electoral facts, and not borrow tomorrow’s troubles with premature worries about where to find the best price on an Integrity Lockbox™.

To fully explain why Dan Balz Question Two is utterly wrongheaded would require more words than I’d care to write today, so I’ll just quote myself:

“There have been a few little things … that lead me to think Perry is a lot less certain ultimately to win the nomination than some people seem to think. What I fear will happen is that Perry will spend several months sucking up media oxygen and burning through GOP donor cash, only to collapse early next year. This will have the effect of suffocating other conservative candidates, and thereby lead to … Romney 2012.”
— Aug. 9

“Dude. When your “conservative” candidate makes Mitt Romney look like Sheriff Joe Arpaio, it’s over.”
— Oct. 1

There are some issues a Republican can afford to be wrong about, but immigration isn’t one of them, and Perry’s unforced error — telling conservatives “you don’t have a heart” — is also a fatal error. Seventeen million dollars won’t be enough to buy back the credibility he lost with that one phrase.

All my friends who bought that Texas pig-in-a-poke and jumped on the Perry bandwagon with both feet — you know who you are — are currently doing their Kübler-Ross thing because they don’t want to speak those four fateful words: “Stacy McCain was right.”

But while my friends continue to deny or defend their own wrongness, thereby depriving me of timely credit for my rightness, I must look forward to try to discern what comes next. As I explained last night, there are reasons to think Rick Santorum could be on the verge of a breakthrough: The wheels are falling off Bachmann’s campaign, and she was previously considered the pre-emptive favorite in Iowa. So if Santorum can show strong in the next two debates (Oct. 11 at Dartmouth and Oct. 18 in Las Vegas), he might be the “flavor of the week” by Oct. 19.

That’s all the more reason to write off Perry’s chances of recovery. Santorum is a brutal counter-puncher in debates, and Perry’s got a glass jaw. As I noted the day after the Orlando debate, several observers had especial praise for Santorum’s performance there.

And what the hell, right? Santorum’s got nothing to lose by an all-out kamikaze attack on Perry: If Santorum gets hurt by the blowback, so what? He’s already in single digits nationally, and his hard-core base of Christian conservatives in Iowa isn’t going to abandon him for being “too mean” to Perry. Furthermore, the guy who does a savage debate takedown on Perry is going to buy himself some MSM coverage, and even if the liberals on MSNBC despise everything Santorum stands for, they’ll cheer him for dismantling Perry.

Dan Baltz may not have noticed, as I did, that Santorum just made another three-day trip to Iowa. With Bachmann hurting and Perry melting down, the Hawkeye State is wide open for a Republican who refuses to apologize for being a pro-life Catholic.

Of course, I’m the conductor calling “all aboard the Cain Train,” but I don’t want anyone to be blindsided if, two weeks from now, the talking heads on TV are all about Rick Santorum. Even though he’s not my horse in the race, I’ve felt he was overdue for some respect ever since I covered his barn party in Roland, Iowa.

Should my prophecy prove correct, don’t look for this front-page headline in the Washington Post: “Stacy McCain Proven Right — Again.” My point is that you’re never going to see these things ahead of time if you let Conventional Wisdom peddlers like Dan Balz prejudice your thinking.

You Can’t Have Your Cow And Milk It, Too

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by Smitty (via Protein Wisdom)

The bog-like decay of a legal system run amok produces another horrible result in Wisconsin:

On September 9, Judge Fiedler issued his decision on the motion, stating that the court’s August 12 denial of plaintiffs’ motion for judgment meant the following:

  1. Plaintiffs do not have a fundamental right to own and use a dairy cow or a dairy herd;
  2. Plaintiffs do not have a fundamental right to consume the milk from their own cow;
  3. Plaintiffs do not have a fundamental right to board their cow at the farm of a farmer;
  4. The Zinniker Plaintiffs’ private contract does not fall outside the scope of the States’ police power;
  5. Plaintiffs do not have a fundamental right to produce and consume the foods of their choice;
  6. DATCP [Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection] . . . had jurisdiction to regulate the Zinniker Plaintiffs’ conduct.

With this sweeping denial of basic rights, the judge refused to recognize any distinction between public and private activity; moreover, he was holding that the government had the power to regulate people’s efforts to grow and raise their own food.

In a hypothetical case, if you took a maniac judge fifteen or twenty miles from shore and threw the judge in Lake Michigan, would the judge have standing?

Ezra Klein: Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 Plan Shows ‘Lack of Policy Seriousness’

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On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” the Washington Post’s resident Juice Box Mafioso said he doesn’t think Herman Cain’s phenomenal surge will continue because of the Atlanta businessman’s “lack of policy seriousness.” Klein singled out Cain’s 9-9-9 tax plan — 9% personal income tax, 9% national sales tax and 9% corporate tax — by saying “nobody knows how much revenue it would produce.”

It is true that no one has produced an estimate of federal revenue under the Cain plan. However, it is also true that Cain’s proposal for bold reform has been praised by economists including Wall Street Journal senior economics writer Stephen Moore.

And it is furthermore true that Ezra Klein never criticized President Obama for a “lack of policy seriousness,” although the president’s policies have led to economic disaster.

Just sayin’ . . .


LIVE AT FIVE – 10.05.11

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— compiled by Wombat-socho


TOP NEWS
Chris Christie: “Now Is Not My Time”

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

“New Jersey, whether you like it or not, you’re stuck with me.”

Acting Governor Hangs On To Win In West Virginia
Tomblin (D) beats Maloney (R) 49-47%

Afghanistan’s President Karzai Inks Strategic Partnership Treaty With India
Pakistani Pucker Factor OVER 9000



POLITICS
Romney’s Record Thin On Immigration

Mitt Romney speaks in Iowa

Former Congressman, immigration firebrand Tom Tancredo vouches for Romney’s bona fides on subject of illegals

Hank Jr. Apologizes Again For Comments



Obama Touts Jobs Bill On Perry’s Turf

Reid Blocks GOP Senate Move To Vote On President’s Jobs Bill

House GOP Asks For Special Counsel To Probe AG Holder On “Fast And Furious”

Massive Corps Of Engineers Contracting Fraud Alleged



THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Euro Weakens, Asian Stocks Drop After Italian Downgrade
Late Surge Erases Early Wall Street Losses
Ford, UAW Agree On Contract With Bonuses
HP To Decide On PC Unit Spinoff This Month, Whitman Says
Banks Defend Debit Card Fees Amid Pressure From Washington
Apple Unveils Latest iPhone, the 4S
Nokia Still Committed To WinPhone As Apple Marches On
Report: Amazon Selling 2000 Kindle Fires An Hour
iPod Refreshed, Zune Retired – Are MP3 Players On The Way Out?
HTC Preps Emergency Patch For Android Phones



SPORTS
Yankees Blitz Tigers 10-1 To Force Game 5

Yankees C Jesus Montero gets high-fived after scoring in the eighth

Inconsistent Burnett turns in good start, helped by defense and six-run eighth inning

Rays Come Up Short, Fall To Rangers 4-3 As Beltre Jacks Three Homers For Texas


Cardinals Strand 14 In 3-2 Loss To Phils; Now Down 2-1 In NLDS

NY Rangers Likely To Put Noted Pest Sean Avery On Waivers

Turner Motorsports Releases Reed Sorenson

Longtime Utah Jazz Forward Andrei Kirilenko Signs With Russian Team

Astros’ Pitching Prospect Dustin Kellogg Killed In Auto Accident



FAMOUS FOR BEING FAMOUS
“If They’re Going to Pay Me The Stupid Money Right Now, I’m Going to Take It”

Johnny Depp

Johnny Depp: the Vanity Fair interview

“Playboy Club” First Cut From Fall Lineups

Blake Lively, Leonardo DiCaprio Split

Rachel Uchitel Marries Businessman

“Simpsons” Final Season On Hold; Fox, Voice Actors At Loggerheads Over Pay

“Dexter” Opens Sixth Season Big, Future In Doubt

LeAnn Rimes Sits Down With Maya Angelou For Life-Changing Interview

Axl Rose Unrecognizable After Piling On The Pounds



FOREIGNERS
Russia, PRC Veto UNSC Syria Resolution; India Abstains
Somalia Bombing Points To Shabab Jihadis’ Grim Goals
Saudi Police Open Fire On Shiite Protesters
Putin Woos Disaffected Middle Class
Lama Visa Fiasco “Worse Than Apartheid” Fumes Angry Tutu
Germany Returns Skulls From Colonial Era To Namibia
Norks Demand Return Of Citizens Found In ROK Waters
Egypt’s Military Unclear On Timetable For Power Transfer



BLOGS & STUFF
NRO Corner: The Dark Side Of The “Occupy Wall Street” Protests
PJ Tatler: House Progressive Dems Embrace Wall Street Protesters
Rich Lowry: The Left’s Pathetic Tea Party
Michelle Malkin: Progressives Of Pallor On Pointless Parade
Legal Insurrection: Fast and Furious Roundup – Holder Lied, People Died?
Weasel Zippers: Top Union Goon Tells Leftist Maniacs To Fall In Line And Support Obama’s Jobs Bill
Big Hollywood: Will The MSM Grill Freeman, Samuel Jackson On Tea Party Racism Claims?
Lonely Conservative: Michelle Obama’s Trip To Africa Cost Taxpayers Half A Million Bucks
Jawa Report: German Taliban Mujahideen Leader Reported Killed By US Air Strike


SOTD: Absolutely Sweet Marie

Gingrich Uses ‘Accountable’ In The Context Of The Obama Administration

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by Smitty (via PuffHo)

“The president says he has full confidence in Secretary Chu despite [the Solyndra] scandal,” Gingrich wrote on his website. “What kind of confidence can we have in a president who refuses to hold his cabinet officers accountable?”

Ha ha ha.

“As President, I would have fired Secretary Chu for so grossly mismanaging taxpayer dollars,” Gingrich continued.

Oh, come on, Newt: you know that’s not how Chicago-upon-Potomac works. Let’s review:

  1. The government borrows public money via moronic legislation and Democrat tools give it to idiots with low animal cunning.
  2. Their low animal cunning dominates initially, and the idiots give the kickback to the Democrats.
  3. Then the idiocy kicks in, and the idiotic ventures end, well, idiotically.
  4. The Democrats blame Bush horoscopes Tea Parties.
  5. ???
  6. Profit!

Newt cares not a fig for the Underpants Gnome Administration’s methodology, however:

“My 21st Century Contract with America calls for moving power out of Washington and back to the states and the people, to reduce the arbitrary power of federal bureaucrats. It also calls for a complete overhaul of the federal government’s work rules, processes and bureaucracies using proven private sector waste reduction and productivity improvement techniques like Lean Six Sigma.”

Yeah, the Contract with America is to Newt what RomneyCare is to Bruce Campbell’s political doppelgänger. We need neither a Contract with America, nor RomneyCare: we need leaders who grasp the mission to load-shed the pile of cruft that is DC’s overreach.

Update: Surber ‘lanche!

CAMPAIGN FOCUS: Will Rick Santorum Be the Next GOP ‘Flavor of the Week’?

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Recent media coverage of the Republican presidential field has focused on the front-runners, especially Herman Cain’s emergence as a contender. Little attention has been paid to a candidate who may be poised to make a move: Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

Santorum could benefit from recent developments, including the apparent decline of Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann’s campaign. It was reported this week that several of Bachmann’s key staffers have left the campaign, and the third-quarter fundraising report due Oct. 15 is expected to show the Tea Party favorite’s coffers running low.

Bachmann surged in the polls after a strong performance in a June 13 debate in New Hampshire, and scored a big victory Aug. 13 in the Iowa GOP Straw Poll. Bachmann’s win at Ames knocked her fellow Minnesotan, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, out of the race, but the entry of Texas Gov. Rick Perry into the Republican field — at the Red State Gathering in South Carolina the same day as the Ames event — deprived her of the boost she might have expected from her Iowa success. Meanwhile, few in the media noticed that Santorum’s low-budget Iowa campaign had managed a fourth-place finish at Ames.

Perry’s stumbles in three debates in September – Sept. 7 at the Reagan Library, Sept. 12 in Tampa and Sept. 22 in Orlando – were followed by Cain’s surprise victory in the Sept. 24 Florida GOP straw poll. Since then, a series of polls have shown a steep decline in Perry’s support. While Perry was melting down in the September debates, many observers praised Santorum’s strong performances, especially in the Orlando debate, where Santorum hit Perry hard on the immigration issue.

With Bachmann’s campaign evidently in trouble, and Perry’s once-promising campaign thrown off-stride, Santorum could be positioned to gain support particularly among social conservatives who have historically played a key role in the Iowa caucuses. Florida’s decision to move up its primary to Jan. 31 means that Iowa will also move up its caucuses — perhaps as soon as late December — and Santorum has worked hard to build a grassroots organization in the Hawkeye State.

Santorum just completed another three-day swing through Iowa, telling a group in a small town Monday that “no candidate is working Iowa like I am.” And Santorum got good news Tuesday from New Hampshire, picking up the endorsement of former state Rep. Bill Cahill, who will serve as co-chairman of the Santorum campaign in the Granite State. (See full text of press release below.)

The 2012 Republican campaign so far has been defined by candidates rising and falling as “flavor of the week,” as Sarah Palin said. With two debates scheduled in coming weeks — Oct. 11 in Hanover, N.H. and Oct. 18 in Las Vegas, Nev. — Santorum will have a chance to make his case as the next flavor to challenge the front-runner vanilla of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

*** TEXT OF SANTORUM PRESS RELEASE ***

SANTORUM NAMES BILL CAHILL
NEW HAMPSHIRE CO-CHAIRMAN
AND SENIOR ADVISOR
Former Executive Councilor and State Representative
endorses Santorum for President

Verona, PA – Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) announced today that his campaign has received the endorsement of former Executive Councilor and State Representative Bill Cahill. Cahill will serve as Santorum’s New Hampshire Co-Chairman and Senior Advisor alongside Claira Monier.
Bill Cahill said, “I am excited to endorse Rick Santorum for President of the United States and I look forward to serving as the Senator’s New Hampshire Co-Chairman. Senator Santorum has shown he is committed to New Hampshire and has the work ethic Granite Staters demand from their candidates. The Senator’s passion and commitment to conservative principles are exactly what our nation needs right now to get back on track.”
Claira Monier said, “I am excited to work with Bill to help propel Senator Santorum to victory in New Hampshire. From working with Senator Santorum’s campaign since he announced, it is clear that he respects New Hampshire’s role as the First-in-the-Nation primary state and does not take our votes for granted. His commitment to New Hampshire and the nation is without doubt, and we look forward to making him our next president.”
Senator Santorum said, “I am honored to have Bill’s endorsement and thrilled that he will serve as a Senior Advisor and my New Hampshire Co-Chairman. Bill has a strong track-record of helping conservative candidates and a long history of standing up for conservative principles in both volunteer and elected positions. Bill is an esteemed member of the New Hampshire community and I look forward to working with him as we move toward victory in the First-in-the-Nation primary!”
Bill Cahill, of Piermont, is a former Executive Councilor from District 3 and a former New Hampshire State Representative. Cahill has served in numerous volunteer leadership positions on various presidential campaigns, including the 2008 campaign of Senator Fred Thompson and most recently as a member of Governor Tim Pawlenty’s New Hampshire steering committee. Cahill is the founder and CEO of Cahill Public Affairs, LLC.


Mead Was Nearly Onto Something There

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by Smitty

Walter Russell Mead shoots. . .it rolls around the rim. . .falls out. Sonofa. (Emphasis mine):

For all the brouhaha over the Citizens United decision, however, campaign finance reform was never the ideal way to reduce the influence of special interests on politicians. Despite the howling from the commentariat about “opening the floodgates” of corporate money into politics, I have never been able to see how regulating the ability of people to spend their own money on elections is anything but a violation of the most basic of civil liberties.
That doesn’t mean I’m not worried about the mix of political ambition and corporate self-interest. But it might make more sense to work on this problem from the demand side: reducing the incentive for lobby groups to pump money into politics by reducing the discretionary ability of lawmakers to tinker with the tax system.

I have infinite faith in the capacity of lawmakers, given time and a system, to arrive at a work-around. Thus, I have little faith in the capacity of legislation to bind any Congresscritters.

The real hope would be to minimize the corruption by scaling the system down, and making it as transparent as possible. Scaling down means using the enumerated powers of the Constitution. Making it as transparent as possible means that, short of no-kidding existential threat like Imperial Japan, we Just. Don’t. Run. Deficits.

But no, let’s compromise. If we only smoke just a little crack, maybe the public noggin won’t totally ‘splode.