Fear and Loathing at the Quality Inn

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DES MOINES, Iowa
Just got off the phone with Dale Peterson, who’s meeting with agriculture groups — including the Iowa Turkey Federation — on behalf of the Herman Cain campaign today. Meanwhile, I’m trying to figure out the logistics for the rest of my trip.

Right now, I’m staying at the Quality Inn downtown, which is a nice enough place — free breakfast every morning in the restaurant — except that it’s across the highway from Mercy Hospital, and this means that many of the guests are relatives of patients being tended there. Yesterday, while I was waiting for the elevator, there was a lady talking on her cell phone, crying about her father who just had a heart attack and is in ICU at Mercy.

Speaking of people on life-support (this is what we journalists call a “transition”) the TV just showed this Tim Pawlenty ad again:

TV in Iowa is crammed full of these ads, as well as ads for Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann. I’ve posted all three at Right Wing News so you can watch them back-to-back, which is how they’re running during local cable breaks here on Fox News. Like the weeping relatives of ICU patients, these non-stop ads are bumming me out, so I’m going need to get back on the road.

Yesterday, Herman Cain made news during his appearance at the Greater Des Moines Partnership, as Karen Obradavich of the Register reports:

Herman Cain seemed to raise the bar Thursday for his performance in the Iowa Republican straw poll, saying he needs a top-three finish in the Aug. 13 event.
However, the presidential candidate added later that failure to reach that wouldn’t drive him out of the race.
“I don’t believe I have to win the straw poll, but I do believe I need to finish in the top three,” Cain said during a forum sponsored by the Greater Des Moines Partnership.
But when asked what would happen if he didn’t place third or better, he said, “We’re not going to stop. That’s just the desired place where we would like to finish, that’s in the top three. If we finish fourth or fifth, we’re going to evaluate that to determine what the implications are. So it’s not the end of the road, it’s just going to be a harder analysis that we would do to decide if we go forward.”

The stakes for Cain in the straw poll aren’t nearly as high as they are for Pawlenty, as I explain in my Spectator column:

While it is notoriously difficult to predict the outcome of that vote, a third-place finish for Cain at Ames would likely put him ahead of Pawlenty. At least one longtime Iowa GOP operative has said that, given how much Pawlenty has already invested in this state, his campaign’s viability would be in jeopardy if he didn’t place at least second at Ames. If Pawlenty actually were to place fourth — behind Cain, who wasn’t even considered a “first-tier” candidate three months ago — that likely would be seen as a humiliation for the former Minnesota governor. But that’s a huge “if,” and few Iowa observers expect Cain to place better than fifth at Ames.

Those of you who remember my lost $10 bet with Da Tech Guy last week understand why I don’t usually do predictions. But if Cain finishes ahead of Pawlenty at Ames . . . dude. Here are some photos from Cain’s visit yesterday:

The press corps at Cain’s appearance in Des Moines, including Craig Robinson of The Iowa Republican and Meghan Malloy of the Iowa Independent.

Cain talks to a local reporter at the Smokey Row Coffee shop in Oskaloosa.

I’ve got lots more photos and videos, but the slow WiFi connection makes it difficult to upload them in any kind of efficient fashion. And I’ve still got to figure out how and when I’m getting to Sioux City for the start of Herman Cain’s bus tour Monday. His advance team is supposed to arrive in Sioux City tomorrow night, but I need to catch up with Bachmann on the campaign trail.

My phone just rang with a tip from a source who says his Texas sources tell him that Rick Perry is going to unofficially announce this weekend that he’s going to make an official announcement next week. So the Phantom Menace looms even larger now and, even worse: I just ran out of cigarettes.

So I’m hitting the road and will report back later.





Long Knives in Iowa

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Michelle Bachmann pushed “a pardon … for a convicted drug dealer/money launderer in 2007”?

They’re bringing it all now — as predicted — and check out this bit buried in today’s Wall Street Journal profile of Bachmann:

Ms. Bachmann has gone through four chiefs of staff and two acting chiefs in less than five years in Washington, payroll records show, an uncommonly high turnover rate. On average, House chiefs of staff serve for nearly seven years, a study for congressional administrators showed.
“I found out real fast that the Michele I knew publicly is not the behind-the-scenes Michele,” said Ron Carey, who was hired as Ms. Bachmann’s staff chief last year and says he quit less than six months later. Mr. Carey said that Ms. Bachmann was consumed with getting herself on television and seemed indifferent to the task of tending to her district, a view expressed by more than half a dozen other former aides.
“It was all about building the Bachmann brand,” Mr. Carey said. A former chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party, Mr. Carey had helped Ms. Bachmann win her first two congressional elections, in 2006 and 2008. He now supports former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty for president.

Former Bachmann aides now working for Pawlenty and attacking their former boss? And he expects to win:

Pawlenty is projecting confidence.
“This is going to be the start of the formal season. And I think we are going to do very well. I’m confident of that,” Pawlenty said Thursday night on Fox News.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for Pawlenty, either. His campaign faces perceived financial problems following a second quarter fundraising report that failed to meet expectations; some top aides are working for the Pawlenty campaign either for free, or for a meager salary.
To that end, the Pawlenty campaign’s poured thousands into radio and TV ads leading up to the straw poll . . .

UPDATE: Here’s the background on the drug-dealer pardon:

Bachmann wrote the letter urging [President Bush] to pardon Vennes for his 1987 conviction on federal money laundering, illegal firearm sales and cocaine distribution charges. He was sentenced to five years in federal prison. . . .
Vennes’ latest troubles involve an alleged giant Ponzi scheme with local billionaire Petters at the vortex of the widening probe. Although Vennes has not been charged, a federal search warrant affidavit accuses him of facilitating a $1.2 billion swindle of five investors in companies controlled by Petters, collecting more than $28 million in commissions in the process. . . .
Vennes, however, has been a major financial contributor to Bachmann since 2005. He and his wife, Kimberly, have contributed a total of $27,400 to Bachmann since 2005. Vennes’ brother and his wife, Greg and Stephanie Vennes, have contributed another $8,400 to Bachmann since 2005.

Matt Lewis reported on this in the Daily Caller in May.

UPDATE: Pawlenty’s prospects assessed by Doug Mataconis:

Pawlenty has been under performing in the polls from the beginning, and has never been able to get a boost to put him in the same category as candidates like Romney and Bachmann, or potential candidates like Rick Perry. Absent an outright win or a strong second, it’s going to be hard for him to maintain a credible campaign.

(Via Memeorandum.) The Wall Street Journal talks about Pawlenty’s attempt to manage the expectations game leading up to Ames:

Mr. Pawlenty’s prediction that he will do “very well” are the rosiest from the former governor’s camp as of late, and his campaign’s actions suggest it intends to place better than fifth place. . . . A fifth place finish would mean Mr. Pawlenty is outperformed by second-tier candidates such as Herman Cain and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
His campaign estimates it will have spent $1 million in the Hawkeye State before the straw poll . . .
As the campaign notes, Mr. Pawlenty finished sixth in a late June survey of likely Iowa caucus goers. But the Real Clear Politics Average of Iowa polls shows Mr. Pawlenty in third place in state polls, coming in behind Rep. Michele Bachmann (R., Minn.) and Mr. Romney. . . . It creates a difficult balancing act for team Pawlenty: The campaign doesn’t want to downplay its successes and strong organization in Iowa, but it also doesn’t want campaign watchers to expect Mr. Pawlenty to finish in first or second place Aug. 13.

Regardless of the expectations, if Pawlenty finishes third at Ames, it’s bad for him. If he’s fourth or fifth at Ames, it’s a catastrophe. So the main expectation is this: Pawlenty’s going to be fighting like a cornered rat for the next eight days.


Cain, Corn and … the Phantom Menace

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My American Spectator column:

DES MOINES, Iowa — Highway 193 runs nearly flat and straight some 60 miles southeast from the state capital in Des Moines to the Mahaska County seat of Oskaloosa, where the monument in the town square honors the tribal chieftain for whom the county was named. Chief Mahaska? “lived at peace with the white man and was slain by an Indian in 1834,” a plaque at the base of the statue explains to visitors.
There were many visitors in the Oskaloosa town square Thursday for the “Sweet Corn Serenade,” the annual festival celebrating the region’s most famous product. And this being Iowa in the summer before an election year, one of the visitors was running for president.
Herman Cain didn’t stay long enough to sample the corn — roasted in the husk and served with a pork sandwich for $3 a plate — but he did shake hands with residents and talk with several of the vendors before adjourning to the Smokey Row Coffee Shop on Market Street for a meeting with two dozen or so of his local supporters. “Happy to be here,” the retired Atlanta businessman began his presentation, “because I like to get out and meet people and talk to people.” He quickly segued into a variation of his standard stump speech, emphasizing his background as an executive — “a problem-solver, not a politician” — and his plan to boost economic growth. And given that the Dow Jones Industrial Average had just lost more than 500 points in the aftermath of an unpopular compromise debt deal in Washington, Thursday was a good day to be a non-politician with a pro-growth economic message.
Less than ten days before the Ames Straw Poll on Aug. 13, Iowa is swarming with Republican presidential candidates, nine of whom will appear on the straw-poll ballot. . . .

Please read the whole thing, which includes a mention of an ad I saw late last night on TV:

Having Rick Perry’s potential campaign looming on the horizon casts a certain shadow over the proceedings here.

LIVE AT FIVE – 08.05.11

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— compiled by Wombat-socho


TOP NEWS
Sect Leader Warren Jeffs Convicted Of Child Rape

FLDS leader Warren Jeffs (center)

Could face life in prison for abuse of 12-year-old “wives”

President Seeks Tax Credit To Spur Hiring Of Veterans
Unemployment for post-9/11 veterans over 13%



Typhoon Muifa Nears Okinawa
Expected to make landfall in PRC Saturday or Sunday



POLITICS
Senate Poised To End FAA Shutdown

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid

Bill extends operating authority through September, cuts subsidies for rural communities

Obama Supporters Already On The Attack For 2012



Panetta Sounds Alarm On Defense-Cut Trigger

Romney PAC Lands Dubious $1 Million Contribution

Poll: Disapproval Of Congress Hits New High

Lawyer Pleads Guilty To Illegal Edwards Donations



THE ECONOMY, STUPID
World Equities Reel Toward Eighth Day Of Losses
US Stock Index Futures Retreat On Recession Fears
LinkedIn Profit Beats Expectations Of Net Loss
Kraft To Split Snacks From Groceries In Spinoff
Lawrence Summers Sees 33% chance Of Recession
Mortgage Rates Reach Record Lows
Crude Oil Drops 4% To Lowest Point In A Year
Google Goes Too Far With Patent Gripes
Medical Devices Susceptible To Hackers
Sony’s PlayStation Vita Debut In US, Europe To Miss Christmas



SPORTS
Lee Tosses Fifth Shutout Of 2011 As Phillies Top Giants

Hunter Pence hits an RBI single in the ninth last night

Revenge for Lee as Phillies win 3-0

Yankees Sweep ChiSox, Tie Red Sox For First

NFL Players Ratify 10-Year Deal; HGH Testing Included

A-Rod Declines To Discuss MLB Poker Investigation

Pujols’ 25th Dinger Helps Cards Past Fish, 7-4

Marketers Reshape How College Teams Sell Tickets

Tribe Pounds BoSox Pitchers For 14 Hits In 7-3 Win

Edwards Returns To Fenway Roush Racing

Thome Hits 598th Homer, Twins Lose To Angels Anyway

Tulowitzki Powers Rockies Past Nationals, 6-3

It’s Official: Strasburg starting Sunday For Hagerstown



FAMOUS FOR BEING FAMOUS
“Grease” Actress Annette Charles Dies, 63

Annette Charles, 1948-2011, RIP

Played “Cha Cha” DiGregorio in 1978 hit film

Kelly Osbourne Mouths Off About Kate Middleton, Christina Aguilera

Kate Bosworth Stepping Out With New Beau

Sarah Michelle Gellar Returning To “All My Children”

“Eureka” Poised To End Its Run With Final Six-Episode Order

“90210” Takes  A Swig Of Brandy



Beyonce Remembers Women In Burkas Singing “Irreplaceable”

Taylor Swift Covers Eminem, Uncle Kracker At Detroit Concert

Demi Lovato: Sober Is Sexy

Val Kilmer A Deadbeat Dad?



FOREIGNERS
SecState: Syrian Death Toll Over 2000
Libyan Rebels Claim Gadhafi’s Son Killed In NATO Strike
Turkey Names New Military Leaders
Nork Hackers Hired By ROK Crime Gangs
Flooding Continues To Threaten Haiti Even As Emily Wanes



BLOGS & STUFF
Israel Matzav: As World Economy Collapses, Obama Worries About Having To Cast Veto In UN
Allahpundit: Dow Plunges 512 Points – “Total Fear”
Lonely Conservative: The Jobless Bus
Moe Lane: Screenshot Of The Day
AmSpecBlog: Obama At 50 – Older, But Not Wiser
Gateway Pundit: Pelosi Says GOP Not Interested In Deficit Reduction But Government Destruction
NRO Corner: Pelosi’s Secret “Anti-Terror” Strategy
PJ Tatler: No, David Frum, Our “Enemies” Were Not Right
Jawa Report: Hobbyist Saves soldiers’ Lives
Brian Stewart: A Superior Defense
Big Government: Former White House Counsel Sues To Strip Media Matters Of Non-Profit Status
Don Surber: Polls Say Obama Lost The Debt Deal. Big Time.
Michael Graham: Matt Damon’s Got A Lot To Learn
Victor Davis Hanson: So What Now?
Professor Bainbridge: Sullivan And Farrell “F*cking Asinine”
PJ Tatler: Government Attack On Food And personal Freedom Continues
Legal Insurrection: Something I’d Like Rick Perry To Do


SOTD: Lobo Town

Fear and Loathing on Highway 193; Pawlenty Aiming at Bachmann?

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DES MOINES, Iowa
Got back from Oskaloosa — an hour away on Highway 193 — about 6 p.m. local time and spent hours struggling to upload video and photos. Now I’m just a couple hours aways from my deadline for The American Spectator, and so there’s only enough time for a couple of pictures and a quick note.

Basically, the Ames Straw Poll on Aug. 13 is shaping up to be Tim Pawlenty’s make-or-break moment. And if he is broken, many observers will declare that it is his fellow Minnesotan, Michele Bachmann, who has broken him. Pawlenty and Bachmann are the only two candidates I’ve seen running TV ads here in Des Moines, and when I posted Bachmann’s latest ad here earlier today, it apparently got the attention of some T-Paw supporters.

Let’s just say that there is no love lost between the two rival Minnesota camps, OK? And we can also point out the obvious: If a Bachmann win on Aug. 13 would be a death knell for Team T-Paw, the clock is ticking down on the time at which “Minnesota nice” goes by the wayside and Pawlenty goes negative on Bachmann. Not that the candidate would attack Bachmann personally, you understand. But the oppo-research files on Bachmann wouldn’t be of any value to the Pawlenty campaign after Aug. 13, if a defeat at Ames effectively destroys Pawlenty’s viability.

Keep that stuff in mind, because surely I’m not the only journalist in Iowa who’s getting “friendly tips” about the Bachmann family’s tax records, etc. And I’m not even trying to get that kind of stuff. It’s just out there, as they say, and I can’t help it when stuff shows up in my e-mail inbox.

Now, a couple of photos from today’s events:

Herman Cain holds an impromptu press conference on the town square in Oskaloosa. Note the two handheld digital recorders at the bottom.

Dale Peterson showed up in Des Moines today. He is agricultural adviser to Cain’s campaign. Maybe he’ll also be on the lookout for people trying to steal yard signs.

And here is a video of a nice lady in Oskaloosa talking about the big annual festival:

I’ll have more later. But first I have to hit that deadline.

UPDATE: After hitting my deadline, I went out to Urbandale — about eight miles from my motel here in Des Moines — to take a quick after-hours look-see at Bachmann’s Iowa campaign headquarters, just to scope out the location. It’s in a shopping center near a pub called Groucho’s. So I was heading back out when I looked across the driveway and, less than 100 yards away from Bachmann HQ is the headquarters of . . . Herman Cain’s campaign. You could quite literally throw a rock from one office to the other. Kinda weird.

How About Some Love, VodkaPundit?

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by Smitty

Stephen Green comes close to throwing Virginia under the bus:

Virginia is traditionally GOP-friendly, but has been trending purple. Also, there’s been a huge influx of money and power and more money into the Northern VA ‘burbs around DC. That helps the state’s economy (at the expense of the rest of the nation), and makes Virginia a tough state for the GOP to pick off of Obama’s 2008 column.

You’re just trying to irritate me into even further efforts in support of American recovery, aren’t you, VP? Your double-secret head fake is likely to succeed!

Maybe I’ve lived in Northern Virginia for too long, but that concentration of history, of the very places where so many Founding Fathers lived, has me particularly incensed to see the place over-run by these slack-jawed homo bureaucratus tools. It’s flipping disgusting, starting with “Gentleman” Jim Moran at the top and proceeding down through the whole lot of the rot.

Balanced Budget Amendment Is A Pyle Of S. . .urprise

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by Smitty

Insty points to a devastating Bloomberg piece:

So the balanced-budget amendment, whatever its political popularity, possesses the following difficulties: It is poorly written and easy to circumvent; it invites judicial control of the appropriations process; and it pretends to know more than we can confidently say we do about how the economy works.

Why do we have to tell the government to manage money responsibly? Prudence in the management of the public fisc should go without saying. The fact that we have to try to be explicit about prudence is a failure. The fact that some, even the GOP leadership, think an explicit failure can succeed is downright worrisome. The fact that elected officials don’t seem to notice the downright worrisome aspect is utterly terrifying.

The problem is not an output problem. The government knows how to spend, yet the spending is where the political theater keeps the action focused. No, the problem is on the input side. If the economy is a receiver, then the government is a loudspeaker with insufficient input impedance. Maybe the loudspeaker is shorted, sitting in a puddle. If we don’t constrain the federal government’s ability to draw current, it will continue to draw current, until the receiver, currently hot to the touch, lets all the smoke out.

Thus, we can pass an Amendment a year from now until that receiver is a Class C fire, the economy is reduced to barter, and BHO is gibbering “Bushbushbushbush. . .” in the I-love-me jacket, and it won’t mean a thing.

Private Pyle is relatively serious, compared to the political theater passing itself for leadership in DC.

Why I’m A Gay Spiderman Fan

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by Smitty

Once again, I’m not tracking the uproar over the recent Progress made in comic book characters. While the World’s Youngest Blogger isn’t yet into comics, I remember fondly collecting comics for several years.

That I may not agree with the direction some comics I used to enjoy are taking seems more an opportunity than a problem, to me. Guys like Muir at Day By Day can be relied upon to produce work that is more in keeping with the American tradition.

It’s a fantastic thing that Marvel Comics is following their muse and producing the comics they feel have a market. Just that, in the privacy of my own home, we’ll be addressing the secular culture with, let us say, clarity.

This is what I mean about laughing, rather than shooting the messenger. Leave the caustic tone to the Left.