OK, after reading Karl’s Hot Air post, I’m starting to feel a bit embarrassed about my own grim outlook on the fall elections: Am I too pessimistic? Am I turning into Allahpundit?
Let me explain: I was at Doug Hoffman’s headquarters in Saranac Lake, N.Y., the night he came up short, and I was at Tim Burns’ headquarters in Washington, Pa., the night he came up short. So I’ve seen the agony of defeat at close range, and I know what disappointed hope looks like.
By contrast, I was in Boston for the Scott Brown victory celebration when the confetti rained down and the band played and the AOSHQ crew broke out the pudding. Miracles can happen and, if a Republican can win Ted Kennedy’s seat, nothing is impossible.
So let me give you a reason for optimism: Randy Altschuler in New York’s 1st District has $1.8 million cash on hand, compared to $1.4 million for incumbent Democrat Rep. Tim Bishop. The bad news is that Altschuler is in a Republican primary against GOP establishment candidate Chris Cox, who’s got more than $800,000 cash on hand.
Meanwhile, in NY-23, our hero Doug Hoffman has about $200,000 cash on hand and is facing a GOP primary against an establishment candidate, Matt Doheny, who’s got nearly $700,000. And the (Dede-endorsed) Democrat incumbent, Rep. Bill Owens, is sitting on $600,000.
Go back to Jim Geraghty’s list of 99 most feasible Republican pickups for November and from the “Blue” (easy) category choose MD-1. This district, containing the Eastern Shore area of Maryland, was long represented by moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest, who routinely won 2-to-1 landslides, but lost the 2008 GOP primary to conservative challenger Andy Harris. But when the Obama tide hit in November 2008, Harris lost narrowly (49%-48%) to Democrat Frank Kratovil.
MD-1 looks like a sure bet to flip back to the Republicans this fall. However, as of June 30, Kratovil had $1.3 million cash on hand, whereas there are two leading GOP candidates in the Sept. 14 primary, Harris (about $900,000 cash on hand) and Rob Fisher (about $240,000 cash on hand).
So here you’ve got what should be an easy win for the GOP — and yet (a) the Democrat’s got a significant money advantage and (b) the Republicans must fight out a primary battle that won’t end until seven weeks before Election Day.
Returning to Geraghty’s list, let’s pick one from the “Green” category (“should be GOP wins”): PA-3, up near Lake Erie, a district won by George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004. In 2008, however, the Obama wave lifted Kathleen Dahlkemper to a 52-48 win over third-term incumbent Phil English. As of June 30, Dahlkemper was sitting on $1 million in campaign cash, while her GOP opponent, Mike Kelly, had a measly $100,000.
You see why I’m worried, folks? Republicans need to gain 40 seats to take over the House. When you combine the “Blue” and “Green” categories in Geraghty’s list, the total is 39 seats, and some of those races might be a lot tougher for the GOP than Geraghty thinks. “Blue Dog” Democrat Rep. Bobby Bright in AL-2, for example, got lucky when the Republican establishment lined up behind Martha Roby, who isn’t exactly a dynamic political personality. As of June 30, Bright had $730,000 compared to Roby’s $120,000.
Moving up to the “Yellow” (50/50) category, we find we’re in the same range as PA-12. How’s our friend Tim Burns doing since the May 19 special election? As of June 30, he was about even with Democrat Mark Critz in cash-on-hand. Another race I’m following is Ray McKinney in GA-12. As of June 30, Ray’s opponent, incumbent Democrat Rep. John Barrow, had more than $600,000 cash on hand, compared to less than $80,000 for McKinney.
Money isn’t everything, but it’s essential to running any political campaign and, almost everywhere, we see Republican challengers at a significant financial disadvantage to the Democrat incumbents they must beat if the prophecies of a GOP House majority are to be fulfilled.
These candidates can’t depend on the Washington-based Republican establishment to bail them out. RNC reportedly has only $5 million cash on hand. The NRCC has $17 million, compared to $33 million for the DCCC.
If conservatives online don’t start paying attention, Nov. 2 may be another one of those “agony of defeat” moments — a long night of tearful Republican concession speeches that brings smiles to the faces of Chris Matthews, Rachel Maddow and Keith Olbermann.
And nobody wants to see that, right?
