Besides everything, I mean. Christine Romer’s neo-Keynesian analysis of the economic slump — “It’s Aggregate Demand, Stupid” — inspires Yglesias to spout ignorantly about “structural” unemployment:
Every time there’s a downturn a certain swathe of the elite starts to label it unfixable and structural.
He then goes off to argue that the problem with U.S. policy is that it has been too cautious:
The fact of the matter is that key people responsible for running the global economy—people at the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Board, and the Bank of Japan, people in the United States Senate, people in the Germany cabinet—are screwing up. In the developed world, those countries who’ve been able to respond aggressively to the crisis with aggressive expansion-via-devaluation are all doing pretty well. The bigger developed economies can’t do that exact thing, but they can mount more aggressive expansionary responses — they just aren’t.
All this is a convenient excuse for not bothering to grasp the differences between structural and cyclical unemployment. Joseph Lawler had an excellent in-depth discussion of this issue in the December-January issue of the American Spectator, which I summarized in March:
Boiling down a complex discussion to its essence, we must understand the difference between cyclical unemployment — a temporary situation caused by short-term downward trends in the business cycle — and structural unemployment, which is the result of fundamental changes in the economic structure of society.
If Yglesias is too lazy to wrap his mind around that issue, I can’t force him to do so, but I must point out that “structural” is not a synonym for “unfixable.” The problem is that the kinds of government interventions that help ease cyclical unemployment may actually hinder recovery when there are structural changes in the economy.
Are we looking at a temporary slow period in the business cycle or are we looking at the results of structural changes in the economy? The question is not moot, nor is it a matter of political preference. If the government is shoving unemployment benefits and public assistance at people, encouraging them to wait around for the jobs to come back when, in fact, those jobs aren’t ever coming back, then your policies are doing more harm than good.
Arguments about economics have an unfortunate way of becoming arguments about politics because there is always the question of what policies the government should pursue. Yet we cannot forget there is an underlying economic reality that is immune to our political wishes.
UPDATE: A liberal who actually knows something about economics weighs in:
The important point is that while it isn’t structural now, the longer high unemployment persists the more the amount of structural unemployment will increase. There are a couple of mechanisms for this, the most obvious one being that over time, the skills of unemployed workers deteriorate as technology/practices change. This mismatch between skills of the unemployed and the needs of employers grows.
Ah, but Duncan, how can you so blithely conclude that current unemployment is not structural?
The housing boom created jobs for a lot of unskilled and semi-skilled workers who are now unemployed and who, barring a re-inflation of the “bubble,” are unlikely to find such good employment prospects in the immediate future. Furthermore, these people are in many cases the same ones who signed on for those low-doc option-ARM mortgages and are now living in houses worth less than they owe on them. So they’re doubly screwed.
All of which goes back to a point I’ve been pounding home for months: You can’t make capitalism work without capital, and the biggest problem in the U.S. economy today is a capital shortage. The housing meltdown wiped out $7 trillion in asset value, and there is simply no way to recover quickly from that kind of wipeout. So when you keep pretending that recovery is just around the corner — it’s not — you’re undermining your own credibility.
Frankly, liberals were on more solid ground with their original argument: “Blame Bush!”