VIDEO: Allen West Victory Speech

Posted on November 2, 2010November 3, 2010Comments

BOCA RATON, Fla. — Will be uploading these segments in stages, in no particular order. It was freaking awesome, is what it was.

UPDATE: My plan for Election Night had been to end up at Marco Rubio’s victory bash down in Coral Gables. But I was a little late leaving Panama City in the morning and, though I drove like a bat out of hell, it was obvious I would be late getting there. So I called the West campaign, found out they were having their victory party here about 45 miles up the coast from Miami and . . .

Well, Colonel West has been a sentimental favorite for a long time, ever since he was Pamela Geller’s “Colonel from Kandahar” columnist inAfghanistan. I interviewed him during his 2008 campaign, back when the NRCC wouldn’t give him the time of day, so it’s like destiny that brought me here.

The congressman-elect meets the press after his victory.

Mrs. West and the couple’s lovely daughters.

Smile and say, “Charles Johnson!”

ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS HQ UPDATE: GOP Gains Roughly 60 House Seats, Takes Over Majority From Pelosi UPDATE: O’Donnell, Angle Defeated, ‘Looking Bad’ for Joe Miller in Alaska UPDATE: Griffith and Hurt Win VA-9 and VA-5, Webster Beats Grayson in FL-8; UPDATE: Rand Paul Stomps to Victory; Marco Rubio Wins Florida Senate

Posted on November 2, 2010November 3, 2010Comments

Election coverage tonight is coming from the Tea Party Patriots event at the Hyatt Capitol Hill in D.C., with Florida field reporting from Stacy, and Massachusetts from Pete, Da Tech Guy.

UPDATE 3:15 a.m. (RSM)
BOCA RATON, Fla. — It looks like Republicans will post a net gain of about 60 House seats, so that Nancy has to give up the gavel after four years of heinousness as speaker of the Worst Congress Ever.

UPDATE 3 a.m. ET (RSM):
Hey, didn’t I tell you to get a nap Tuesday? I’ve decided that being right in the middle of a victory celebration isn’t necessarily the best place to do nationwide election coverage. Everybody else is gone here at the Marriott. I just got a call from a friend (and tip-jar hitter) in Alaska who says it’s “looking bad” for Joe Miller. Ace calls it “RINOgeddon.”

My Alaska friend says that if Murkowski wins, it will be “the start of a civil war” in the Alaska GOP. It’s pretty obvious that many Republican establishment types (secretly or not) supported Murkowski and sabotaged Miller in order to undermine Sarah Palin. Bastards.

Of course, the losses of Christine O’Donnell and Sharron Angle were bitter. It’s also sad to see both Ruth McClung and Jesse Kelly trailing by 3,000 votes in Arizona. And whatever magic Scott Brown had in Massachusetts, it appears to be non-transferable to other Republicans, as the Massachusetts GOP got skunked Tuesday.

UPDATE 12:10 a.m
BOCA RATON, Fla. — Just uploaded video of Allen West’s victory speech. Now on deadline for the American Spectator.

UPDATE 10:35 p.m.
BOCA RATON, Fla. — Sitting here at Allen West’s victory party, I found myself talking to Judy Kone, who told me her daughter, Susan Kone, is the Republican challenger to Jerrold Nadler in NY-8. With 2 percent of precincts reporting, Nadler has 72 percent of the vote.

Tom Marino has won in PA-10, a district I visited with Da Tech Guy a couple of weeks ago. Sadly, we’ve learned that Barney Frank has won re-election in MA-4.

UPDATE 8:45 p.m. ET (RSM)
BOCA RATON, Fla. – Just got off the phone with Doug Hoffman, whose conservative campaign in New York’s 23rd District last fall lit the grassroots fuse that’s exploding tonight. Hoffman lost this year’s GOP primary by about 700 votes and endorsed his Republican opponent, Matt Doheny. As might be expected, Hoffman is “disappointed” that he won’t be part of the 112th Congress but is excited about the powerful message being sent by voters tonight. As he said, “it’s about doing what’s good for America.”

Just heard that Morgan Griffith has defeated Rick Boucher in VA-9 – that’s a key result, because the race was rated a “toss-up.” I covered Griffith for the American Spectator last week. Also, Ali Akbar informed me by phone that Ray McKinney is leading with about 15 percent of the vote counted in GA-12. There was a big cheer here at Allen West’s victory party when Dan Webster was declared the winner over Alan Grayson, and West himself is currently leading 57-43. Nobody has yet brought me a cold Corona.

Navigation
Live reports
Called races
Tea Party Patriots
Poll closing times
Others blogging

Live reports
UPDATE 2047EST
MD-5 Lollar 54, Hoyer 44, 3% reporting, which will be salve for the wound in VA-8. The dark side of the force is strong in VA-8.

UPDATE 2038EST
Via National Review

Sen. Jim DeMint (R., S.C.) has released this statement on Marco Rubio’s win in Florida:
I want to thank the voters in Florida for electing a true champion for freedom today. Marco knows that America is exceptional and he’s passionate about the principles of freedom that are the backbone of our nation. I was honored to support Marco’s campaign in the primary when the Washington establishment opposed him and even laughed at his chances. Now the people of Florida get to have the last laugh as they send an outstanding leader to represent them in Washington.

UPDATE 2026EST (RSM)
VA-9 Griffith leading Boucher 52-46 69%. Related RSM reporting at American Spectator.

UPDATE 8 p.m. (RSM)
BOCA RATON, Fla. — The crowd here at the Allen West victory party has been cheering all night at encouraging early results. West is leading 54-45 in early results, and Fox News just declared Marco Rubio the winner in the Florida Senate race. Meanwhile, Kentuckians have given elected Rand Paul to the U.S. Senate. A stomping good night for the GOP so far.

FITCHBURG, MA, 1854EST
Pete Da Tech Guy reports record turnout in all districts. Exceeding Scott Brown, and 2008 turnout. Democrat pollwatchers seem worried, Republican and Independent turnout is huge. Da Tech Guy’s latest post: Check the photo of “Bill Gunn (r) and congressman John Olver (D) civil and honorable opponents”.

BOCA RATON, FL, 1926EST
Stacy McCain reports 54-45 Allen West leading in early returns

Called races:
Senate:
1908EST KY for Rand Paul
1909EST SC for DeMint
1922EST IN for Coats
1930EST OH for Portman

Tea Party Patriots
The Tea Party Patriots held an event on the West Lawn of the Capitol, where they planted a brace of flags, the Stars and Stripes and the Gadsden Flag, reclaiming our government for We The People.
Thanks to Chris Cassone for the photos.

Keli Carender, who famously held the original Tea Party over in Washington, with the charming Cassone:

Poll closing times:
6:00 pm ET
Indiana
Eastern Kentucky
7:00 pm ET
Florida (except Western panhandle which close at 8 pm.)
Georgia
Western Kentucky
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia
7:30 pm ET
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
8:00 pm ET
Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Washington, D.C.
Illinois
Kansas
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Texas
8:30 pm ET
Arkansas
9:00 pm ET
Arizona
Colorado
Louisiana
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Wisconsin
Wyoming
10:00 pm ET
Idaho
Iowa
Montana
Nevada
Oregon
Utah
11:00 pm ET
California
Washington
12:00 am ET
Alaska
Hawaii

Others blogging:

I’m Not Saying Stacy McCain Can’t Eventually Become A Decent Pilot

Posted on November 2, 2010November 2, 2010Comments

by Smitty (h/t Theo)

. . .just that the first flying lesson proved rough on the instructor:

Also, additional tip jar hitting may be required to help Stacy with his brand new suit, which is from a vendor known as ‘Law’.

The ‘Zoid Goes All 1984

Posted on November 2, 2010November 2, 2010Comments

by Smitty (h/t Mind Numbed Robot)

You know, these Orwellian types had really better improve their Net Neutrality skillz, and get that 1st Amendment crushed, or the people are going to glom onto the fact that they really, really suck.

Quantitative Easing

Posted on November 2, 2010November 2, 2010

by Smitty (via Donald Marron)

This is very well done:
Take it straight, take it sober: the country is in for a bumpy ride. The plutocrats whose plans suffer a setback today could very well afford to put a horse head in every bed, for small, wooden, PETA-approved values of ‘horse’.
The Founding Fathers were deeply suspicious of central banking, for reasons that will be discussed in a breadline near you. End the Fed.

Final Warning: Polls Are Not Elections

Posted on November 2, 2010November 2, 2010Comments

PANAMA CITY, Fla. — We now have the final Cook Political Report forecast (“The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating”) predicting a pickup of 50-60 House seats for Republicans. That would be a truly historic result, but it’s actually a note of sober caution compared to Jay Cost’s “Hulk smash” forecast:

A [Gallup final poll predicting GOP] victory of 15 points suggests Republican gains well in excess of my previous estimate of 61 seats. The Abramowitz model suggests a pickup of about 76 seats . . .

With all due respect to Jay Cost: Fuck you and the Abramowitz model you rode in on.

Polls don’t win elections, and regression analysis sure as hell doesn’t win elections. Politics is not a science, and trying to reduce elections to trends, polls and mathematical formulae is one of those situations where when the only tool you’ve got is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

If you’re a thousand miles away from a district and don’t actually know anything about what the candidates and their campaigns are doing, it is tempting to look at poll numbers, examine past voting trends, and start making assumptions about what the result will be. But when we yield to that temptation, we ignore the Hayekian insight: Information is diffused throughout society in such a way that no one — not even the best-informed “expert” — can know everything.

So Jay Cost doesn’t know everything, Charlie Cook doesn’t know everything and Michael Barone doesn’t know everything, either. Yet their status as political experts requires them to make predictions and we mere mortals . . . well, we don’t know nothing about winning no elections.

Anyway . . . Allahpundit is optimistic, which is so abnormal it should worry us all. Jim Geraghty sees a net gain of 70 seats for the GOP (76 pickups minus six losses, including Ben Quayle going down in AZ-3). Nate Silver errs on the side of caution:

Our forecasting model, which is based on a consensus of indicators including generic ballot polling, polling of local districts, expert forecasts, and fund-raising data, now predicts an average Republican gain of 54 seats . . .
Of the projected Republican gains, many are tenuous. If we allocate all 435 seats to the leader projected by our model — no matter how slim the margin — Republicans would net a gain of 59 seats. In 15 of these 59 seats, however, the Republican is projected to win by fewer than 2 points. It is likely that Republicans will lose at least some of these — which is why the model forecasts an average gain of 54-55 seats, rather than 59, when looking at the seats on a probabilistic basis. If they lost all of them, however, their gains would be merely 44 seats, which would put the Democrats within striking distance of retaining the House.

See what I mean? Because there has been little polling in many House races, Silver is forced to use such inputs as fund-raising totals and “expert forecasts” — which is to say, he’s relying on second-hand data. And as if Republicans need a reason to be scared to death, Silver notes a very realistic possibility: Despite everything, Democrat manage to hold on t0 the majority.

To quote one expert: Don’t get cocky!

While I’m optimistic that Republicans will take the House majority, I’m trying to temper GOP overconfidence in my latest American Spectator column:

Parked beside the Steve Southerland campaign headquarters on Baldwin Road is a big RV with an orange sign on the side designating it the “I’ve Had Enough Express.” And indeed, if polls can be trusted, voters in Florida’s 2^nd District have finally had enough seven-term Democrat Rep. Allen Boyd.
“We’re feeling very good about how things are going,” said Southerland campaign communications director Matt McCullough, as he sat in an office inside the yellow brick house that was once the home of the GOP candidate’s grandfather. Polls showing Southerland with a double-digit lead over Boyd, but the campaign is “not taking anything for granted,” McCullough said. “We’re still out there working as hard as we did from Day One.”
Despite such necessary cautions against overconfidence, Republicans here clearly expect to be celebrating a Southerland victory Tuesday night at the Boardwalk Beach Resort. If they want to learn whether their party wins a majority in the House of Representatives, however, they’d better be prepared to stay up past midnight. . . .

Please read the whole thing. I don’t know everything, but what I know, I know. And I know I’m going to take a nap today, because I expect this thing to go to the wee hours of the morning.

I’m leaving for Miami in about an hour. Please hit the tip jar.

Update (Smitty): Welcome InstaPundit readers! Allow me to direct your attention to a post supporting my local candidate.

(Among The) First Vote Post(s)!

Posted on November 2, 2010November 2, 2010Comments

by Smitty

<kinison>
I’ve been waiting for this moment for

Two. . .Miserable. . .YEARS!

</kinison>

Lots of people with their soundtrack cut for today’s election. Picking up the question from the Democrat perspective; as well as the need to capture the Wave Election moment; and the need to get the Led out of every conservative butt today and vote, wake up your whole verrückt neighborhood with the Bonham beat, as we drum these jerks the heck on out of here:

To the pasture with you, Jim Moran.

A ‘well played’ to The Camp of the Saints, especially in light of the POTUS’s recent inarticulate remark about punishing enemies.

Here is some fresh joy from Trifecta:

Let me say something you haven’t heard elsewhere: maximal heat in all of the toughest districts, like VA-8, is a downpayment on victory in 2012. The incumbent may hold onto his seat, claw marks and all. Short of outright victory, leaving them so shattered that they spend two years planning retirement is a worthy achievement.

Updated: not to come off like a groupie or anything, but I did happen to be supporting my candidate at my polling spot when he came by:

LIVE AT FIVE – 11.02.10 – BE THE WAVE

Posted on November 2, 2010November 2, 2010

TOP NEWS

Ninth Circuit: Military Gay Policy To Stand Pending Appeal

Because social engineering is more important than anything! — Protester at rally to repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy

In other 9th circuit news, separate panel may approve part of Arizona’s immigration law, allow police to check status of criminal suspects

Sarkozy Among Targets of Greek Anarchists’ Parcel Bombs
Two men arrested by Greek police for involvement in plot

Giants Win First World Series Since 1954
Lincecum outduels Lee, Renteria wins it with three-run blast in the 7th. Prop 19 support surges among Little League parents in California

Obama Walks Back “Enemies” Remark To Latinos
We heard you just fine the first time, Mr. President.

POLITICS

Sarah Palin And Jon Stewart Agree On This: The Media Are A Bad Influence