Category: Paul Ryan

VP Tea Leaves: Is Mitt’s Short List Now Down to Pawlenty, Portman or Ryan?

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There are signals — both in terms of actual evidence and what might be called “absence of evidence” — that Mitt Romney’s vice-presidential choices have now come down to three Midwesterners: former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.

It appears that Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal has been eliminated from consideration and, most importantly, that talk of Tea Party favoirite Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as Romney’s running mate is just talk. Neither Jindal nor Rubio have taken the steps that would indicate they are finalists for the VP slot. Jindal, for example, has accepted an invitation to appear at an event during the Republican National Convention in Tampa, an acceptance he would not be able to make if he were indeed obligated to keep his schedule clear as the potential running mate.

Meanwhile, at the Weekly Standard — where Bill Kristol and Steve Hayes previously offered either Rubio or Ryan as the “bold” conservative choices for VP — the balance appears to have tipped toward Ryan, indicating that Kristol and Hayes have indications that Rubio is not among the finalists for the spot. (There has been widespread talk among GOP insiders that despite Rubio’s popularity, “vetting” proved problematic for the Florida senator.)

This week’s trial-balloon suggestions about other possible running mates — including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Gen. David Petraus — are regarded as irrelevant distractions by well-informed observers, who now believe the “veepstakes” to have been narrowed to the trio of Midwesterners. Pawlenty and Portman are viewed as the “safe” picks, while talk about a “bold” Republican choice now focuses exclusively on Ryan, the conservative chairman of the House Budget Committee. Tuesday, Robert Costa of National Review cited “sources close to the Romney campaign” as saying that Ryan had risen from “dark horse” to “contender” for the running-mate pick.

Conservatives pushing Romney to go “bold” have a key ally in Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, a Wisconsinite who is said to be quietly exercising home-state influence on Ryan’s behalf. Meanwhile, there may be bad blood brewing between the two “safe” alternatives: Some supporters of Portman blame the Pawlenty camp for pushing reports that Portman once worked as a lobbyist for notorious Haitian dictator “Baby Doc” Duvalier. (ABC News debunked that claim last month.)

How much longer will the GOP veepstakes speculation continue? Probably not too long. Some say Romney’s pick could be announced as early as Wednesday, but the Weekly Standard points to Thursday as the likely day, while Republican strategist Karl Rove says not to expect a selection before Friday.

UPDATE: Alex Moe of NBC News reported today that Paul Ryan’s planning a “vacation.” Just a coincidence?

GIVE US RYAN!

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This is an emergency post. Driving back from the AFP Defending the Dream Summit in D.C., I pulled off the freeway and logged on at a Burger King to get this online as quickly as possible: Mitt Romney must choose Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as his vice-presidential nominee, period.

There is no time now to fully explain the emergency nature of this post, but let me quickly make three points:

  1. My hatred of media “veepstakes” speculation is well-known. When I turn on the TV and see a bunch of pundits talking about who might get the vice-presidential nomination, I turn the channel. It’s a bunch of useless noise, and I can’t stand to watch it. Nevertheless, a sudden crisis makes it imperative that I speak out.
  2. My first choice — and what I think was the most obvious choice — was Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. However, the word among Republican sources is that there were problems with Rubio in terms of vetting. Loath as I am to repeat this, I’ve heard talk that because Rubio is the son of immigrants, there is concern that this might cost Republicans the “Birther” vote. Crazy? Yeah. But whatever the basis for the objections, the general belief is that there is indeed some sort of vetting issue. And so the smart money says that, although Rubio is still officially on the “short list,” he’s unlikely to be the final choice.
  3. The emergency? Two words: Tim Pawlenty.

Friday night, I was talking to some top activists at the AFP summit and one of them assured me that the word among Minnesota Republicans is that T-Paw is at the top of Romney’s VP list, all but guaranteed to be the running mate. Do I have to explain why this shocked me?

So shocked was I, in fact, that I refused to believe it. Certainly, the smart guys at Team Mitt could see the obvious arguments against T-Paw. But then Saturday, I talked to some well-informed D.C.-based operatives and they, too, said they’d heard that Pawlenty was top of the list.

Now I was truly concerned. Dear God, not T-Paw!

Driving home, this worry weighed heavily on my thoughts, and so I called a well-connected and experienced conservative journalist to talk about it — and he’d heard the same basic thing: Pawlenty might already have the VP spot locked up, said my friend, who happens to be a supporter of Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. According to my friend, the word is that T-Paw is at the top of the list, with Ohio Sen. Rob Portman the nearest rival. And this is even worse news. While I like Portman OK, he’s a Bush guy, and we don’t need any ghosts of the Bush administration haunting the GOP in 2012.

So if Rubio has been more or less eliminated from consideration, as my sources suggest, we’ve got to do something to stop this crazy talk about a Romney-Pawlenty ticket. You can’t beat somebody with nobody, and of the remaining guys on the short list, Paul Ryan is the obvious pick.

He’s an Irish Catholic from the Midwest, a hero of deficit hawks, young and handsome, and pre-approved by Bill Kristol, who deems Ryan “the Republican party’s intellectual leader.”

This is, I repeat, an emergency, because Kristol says Mitt’s VP pick could be announced as early as Wednesday, or more likely Aug. 13-15. So if conservatives are going to push back against an ill-advised choice of Pawlenty, we’ve got to start pushing now, and pushing hard as hell.

Ali Akbar started a hashtag, #GiveUsRyan, so you can tell @MittRomney you want @RepPaulRyan as VP. Make it happen!

UPDATE: Wow! Bobby Jindal, himself a short-list candidate for VP, praises Paul Ryan at the Red State Gathering. Momentum!

UPDATE II: Twitchy has more from the Red State Gathering:

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, himself often mentioned as a top-tier candidate for vice president, today recommended Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan for the job.
Speaking this afternoon at RedState Gathering 2012 in Jacksonville, Fla., Jindal’s message of responsible spending and education reform had plenty of attendees sold on him as the vice presidential candidate. . . .
Asked by Breitbart’s Larry O’Connor his pick for vice president, though, Jindal named Ryan as his favorite of “a lot of great choices.” “Paul Ryan has been specific, bold and courageous in his budget plans,” said Jindal.

Linked by Jackie Wellfonder and the Daley Gator — thanks!

 


I Am Not Consumed With Jealousy!

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by Smitty

I do not envy Paul Ryan’s perfect hair, excellent command of facts, sterling reputation, thick head of hair, political courage to dare suggest that Congress balance the budget before the sun burns out, or, for that matter, his rockin’ locks.

No, I am not jealous of posts like this. I just wish the pain would stop. Although, come to think of it, I may have a theory: Ryan has achieved his excellence by draining charisma from Troglopundit. This notion explains both of them in a single sentence.

“He’s Not The King. He’s The President. He’s Elected Just Like The Rest Of Us”

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by Smitty

Peter Robinson interviews Rep. Paul Ryan in an excellent palate-cleanser. It’s 17 kinds of awesome to be home, with bandwidth, and have a chance to enjoy this. It’s also fantastic that a state which could produce a bloggerwho posts a picture of a ballerina sitting in a tree, wearing galoshes and a stormtrooper helmet (I guess that’s dating in Wisconsin for you) could also produce a statesman of the caliber of Ryan. Trog must have been part of the bargain, somehow.

Click to view at NRO online

Post title comes at 3:25 in the clip. Ryan, you rock.

Two Words: ‘Bench Strength’

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Many conservatives were disappointed when Paul Ryan declined to run for president in 2012, and many conservatives — among them Joy McCann at The Conservatory — have raved almost deliriously about Marco Rubio’s speech at the Reagan Library:

I’ve been supporting Marco Rubio, of course, since before I knew who Marco Rubio was. The day “those treacherous bastards” at the NRSC endorsed Charlie Crist (May 12, 2009, a day that will live in infamy) I went all-in for Marco, who at that point was trailing Crist by 35 points in the polls. And it was the video of Marco’s farewell speech to the Florida House that inspired me to write: “[E]verybody who has seen this video is asking the same question: Why in the world would John Cornyn and the NRSC back Charlie Crist against this guy?” Continue reading Two Words: ‘Bench Strength’ →

Paul Ryan Nixes 2012 White House Bid

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The Weekly Standard has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for this idea, and now breaks the news to the readers it has been hyping up:

Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan has decided for a final time that he will not run for president in 2012, THE WEEKLY STANDARD has learned. Ryan, who began seriously considering a bid in late May after Indiana governor Mitch Daniels took himself out of the race, had consulted with top Republicans, including Karl Rove and Frank Luntz, as he contemplated his political future. . . . Ryan ultimately decided to continue his focus on debt and entitlement reform as chairman of the House Budget Committee.
“I sincerely appreciate the support from those eager to chart a brighter future for the next generation. While humbled by the encouragement, I have not changed my mind, and therefore I am not seeking our party’s nomination for President. I remain hopeful that our party will nominate a candidate committed to a pro-growth agenda of reform that restores the promise and prosperity of our exceptional nation. I remain grateful to those I serve in Southern Wisconsin for the unique opportunity to advance this effort in Congress.”

You’ll notice — or at least, I noticed — that the hyping of Ryan as a 2012 candidate (long after he had already said he wouldn’t run) got more intense after T-Paw dropped and Perry got in. That’s your clue that there are specific people who were behind this bogus bandwagon for their own particular purposes. Same deal with the endless Chris Christie chatter.

Don’t get me wrong: I love Ryan and would have liked for him to get in for 2012, but there’s a lot of factional intrigue behind some of these things. Not to mention consultants wanting contracts, speechwriters wanting jobs, vendors wanting clients, etc.

Electoral politics is a multi-million-dollar industry, and if you think it’s all about ideas and idealism, you’re waaaaay wrong.

UPDATE: Nate Silver has charts — lots and lots of shiny colorful charts!

Everybody’s Talking 2012

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Instapundit had an uncharacteristically long post about the 2012 Republican presidential field, my favorite reaction being Professor Stephen Clark’s remark:

“Rove and Krauthammer amuse me with their response to Herman Cain. Since when has it become self-evident that a man with the professional accomplishments of Herman Cain is unfit to hold the office of President for not having spent the better part of his life as an elected politician and has, unforgivably, remained unknown to the likes of Rove and Krauthammer? Paging Professor Codevilla.”

Karl Rove is the Architect of . . . what, really? A campaign that squeaked past Al Gore by the barest of margins in 2000, and scored a slim majority against John Kerry in 2004. Looking back on it, Gore and Kerry weren’t the most formidable candidates the Democrats ever fielded, and yet Rove’s reputation as a strategic genius rests on his management of campaigns that just barely beat them.

Rove’s disparagement of Cain, then, is to be taken with a grain of salt. Charles Krauthammer once worked for Walter Mondale. ‘Nuff said. 

Bill Kristol’s pining for the Great Rescuer is, I think, apt to be unrequited. He clearly wants either Chris Christie or Jeb Bush, and neither of them is likely to jump in this late.

Is Sarah Palin in or out? That’s the biggest question mark at this point. The next major televised GOP debate is in August, and I’d expect she’ll give a definite “yes” or “no” by then. But think about this: If Palin waits until August, she’d be spotting her opposition at least a 100-day lead on organizing campaigns in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and other early states. Practically, then, her apparent indecision points strongly toward a “no” for 2012.

A poll from New Hampshire seems to show Mitt Romney with a commanding advantage there, but 87% of Republicans there say they have no idea who they’ll vote for, so it’s really wide open.

Can America resist the frenzied hysteria of T-Paw fever? To ask the question is, I think, to answer it. And if Dave Weigel wants Republicans to nominate Pawlenty . . . ?

Eric Cantor wants Paul Ryan to run for president — and who doesn’t like Paul Ryan? I think he’s an obvious favorite for the vice-presidential nomination, regardless of who gets the presidential bid. For any sitting member of the House to run a presidential campaign is, however, a long row to hoe.

Finally, Monday on Sean Hannity’s show, Herman Cain admitted to blowing the “right of return” question on Sunday:

“[‘Fox News Sunday’ host Chris Wallace] caught me off-guard. I didn’t understand the right of return. That came out of left field, out of all the questions I anticipated him asking me, I didn’t even conceive of him asking me about the right of return. I now know what that is.”

Ace was impressed. It’s probably not enough to win over Krauthammer. But then again, Krauthammer isn’t an Iowa caucus voter.

And there’s a new Zogby poll.

UPDATE: Don Surber tells the story of how Karl Rove was unwisely willing to write off West Virginia in 2000.