Rick Santorum is getting a head start on the rest of the field by campaigning today in Missouri and Minnesota, and will have an event Tuesday night in Las Vegas, where the caucuses are Saturday.
Mitt Romney at Naples rally, Sunday, Jan. 29, 2012
NAPLES, Fla.
Attention young conservatives: Your grandma loves Mitt Romney.
The phenomenal shift in the polls here in the Sunshine State — which has provoked much commentary and analysis about “strategy” and “messaging” — may in fact be little more complicated than that. And the massive crowd that turned out in downtown Naples today to hear and see Mitt was certainly evidence of how real Romney’s Florida surge is.
This photo was shot from the camera platform, looking back toward Fifth Avenue, and the crowd overflowed in all directions. The camera platform was about 150 feet from the stage, and the area between the platform and the stage was likewise packed to overflowing. While I’m not an expert at estimating crowd sizes, I can say with confidence that this crowd was what the experts call ginormous.
OK, so what’s Mitt’s secret? Let me put it in the simplest possible terms: Sex appeal. This will elicit a groan from ideologues who have spent the past year proclaiming that Mitt is a gutless flip-flopper, the worst RINO in the history of RINO-dom. Yet if you set aside mere politics long enough to see the two Florida frontrunners as the average Republican voter sees them, it is hard to miss the contrast between Mitt — the tall, lean multimillionaire entrepreneur with dark hair and chiseled features — and Newt, the pudgy intellectual.
Maybe you don’t judge presidential candidates by such standards, but it makes a lot of difference to Republican grandmas, and there are lots of Republican grandmas in Florida. And here’s some video that helps explain a little more of Newt’s problem with the affluent residents of retirement communities in the state that has been dubbed “God’s Waiting Room”:
“There was a time back in high school that a girl I knew in elementary school became much more interesting. You see, Ann and I went to the same elementary school. She was in second grade, I was in fourth. I didn’t notice her then. But when she was just about 16, I noticed in a big way. We were at a party together at a friend’s house. She had come with someone else. I went to her date and I said, ‘Look, I live closer to Ann than you do. Can I give her a ride home for you?’ He said, ‘Sure.’ We’ve been going steady ever since. My sweetheart, Ann Romney.”
After Mitt said that, I walked over to talk to another reporter, whose comment was: “Zing! He’s killing him!”
You see? Mitt didn’t even have to name Newt in order to emphasize the contrast: Mitt’s still with his high-school sweetheart, with whom he’s been “going steady” since 1965, while Newt is on Wife No. 3, with whom he had an affair while still married to Wife No. 2.
Maybe if you’re under 40, that kind of thing doesn’t matter much — Who are we to judge? — but to your mother or grandmother, raised on old-fashioned “family values” conservatism, it matters a lot. Put yourself in Grandma’s orthopedic shoes when she reads a headline like this:
Whoa! Newt wants to talk about “character”? Ever heard an old proverb about glass houses, Mister Speaker? Those grannies in Florida aren’t buying your act. And if my ideological under-40 readers don’t mind, this is perhaps an appropriate time to quote the esteemed founder of The American Spectator, R. Emmett Tyrrell Jr.:
Newt, like Bill, has a proclivity for girl hopping. It is not as egregious as Bill’s, but then Newt is not as drop-dead beautiful. His public record is already besmeared with tawdry divorces, and there are private encounters with the fair sex that doubtless will come out. If I have heard of some, you can be sure the Democrats have heard of more.
Forgive my editor for his unseemly insinuation, but rest assured that Bob Tyrrell is certainly not the only conservative who has “heard of some.” There are other conservatives — people whose names you would recognize — who have made similar intimations to me.
Michelle Malkin has never said any such thing, but have you ever wondered why she hates Newt so much? I have.
The problem, as I see it, is that so many True Conservatives have allowed themselves to be persuaded that the frontrunner fight between Mitt and Newt represents the only choice in this election. But while I was at the Romney rally, I encounted two women — including Naples city council woman Teresa Heitman — who say that Florida voters should consider another candidate:
Bella Santorum was admitted to Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia Saturday night because she has pneumonia in both of her lungs, according to campaign aides. . . .
Former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, on Sunday afternoon, tweeted a message of support for the Santorum family.
“Thank you, Rick and Karen Santorum, for living the Christ-like example of sacrifice and right priorities. Nothing is more precious or important than the life of an innocent child. Our prayers are with Bella, a perfect child in an imperfect world,” she said. “God bless the beautiful Santorum family.”
It is not too late, I would argue, for those True Conservatives who have convinced themselves that Newt is The Only Alternative to Mitt to change their minds and reconsider the possibility of supporting a Republican candidate who lives his conservative principles.
NAPLES, Fla.
This morning I drove to Waffle House for breakfast — 5-ounce New York strip steak, two eggs over medium, hashbrowns, wheat toast, large orange juice and coffee, $11.71 — and the waitress had a tattoo on her neck.
Enduring the midday sun, Lynn Ellwood smiled and said “good morning” to dozens of early voters Thursday at the library on Orange Blossom Drive in North Naples. The poster in her lap said “Romney.”
“This is the first time I’ve ever done anything like this,” said Ellwood, 72, a retired speech pathologist and businesswoman from Baltimore. Before last week, she had never so much as passed out a handbill.
“I was so horrified when (Newt Gingrich) won South Carolina that I decided I’ve got to do something,” Ellwood said. “This seems like the most important election of my lifetime.” . . .
The story never tells us why Lynn Ellwood hates Newt so much, but at the end, Wolford includes this:
Even Ellwood — who dislikes Gingrich enough to spend a few hours on a folding chair outside the library holding a poster that she concedes may not actually be effective — could vote for Gingrich if he was the nominee.
“If I didn’t vote for him, I’d be effectively voting for Obama,” she said. “I would have to think about it. And I would have to hold my nose.”
And in between, Wolford finds a Santorum voters:
For Barbara A. Crowe, 80, of Naples, abortion is a deal-breaker, and she questions the sincerity of Gingrich and Romney when they say they are anti-abortion.
“Once you see and hear Rick Santorum, he’s absolutely true blue,” said Crowe, who voted early for the former Pennsylvania senator. “He’s a family man. He’s the core of the American values. He represents that for me.”
Figures made available to The Associated Press showed Romney was spending $2.8 million to air television commercials in the final week of the Florida campaign. In addition, a group supporting him, Restore Our Future, was spending $4 million more, for a combined total of $6.8 million.
By contrast, Gingrich was spending about $700,000, and Winning Our Future, a group backing him, an additional $1.5 million. That was about one-third the amount for the pro-Romney tandem.
From a pro-Santorum perspective, this is good news: The two frontrunners unloading about $9 million combined on Florida, a winner-take-all state that only one will win, which leaves them with that much less money for the fight ahead while Santorum’s low-budget campaign — which has spent next to nothing in the Sunshine State — concentrates its resources elsewhere.
Two new polls show Romney pulling away toward a double-digit victory in Florida. Byron York reports on the latest Rasmussen poll that shows Romney beating Gingrich by 16 points, 44-28, while an NBC/Marist poll has Romney up by 15 points, 42-27.
Remember that Florida is the first closed primary — Republicans only — of the 2012 campaign, and the apparently high level of resistance to Newt may indicate that some conservatives have underestimated the number of Lynn Ellwoods in the GOP electorate.
It’s time for me to get to downtown Naples for the big Mitt Romney rally, but first I wanted to share this video tour of the posh condo which my friend Dan Collins has made available to me as Florida headquarters for the National Affairs Desk this weekend:
Dan’s father wants to sell this condo and, as much as I’d like to make it the permanent headquarters of my Worldwide New Media Empire, (a) it’s probably a wee bit out of my price range, and (b) this is an “adults only” community and I’ve got six kids, and my wife probably doesn’t want to get rid of them just yet.
So if you know someone who’s in the market for a lovely South Florida condo, tell them to contact Dan Collins.
Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum canceled his Sunday morning campaign events and planned to spend time with his hospitalized daughter.
“Rick and his wife Karen are admitting their daughter Bella to Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia this evening,” spokesman Hogan Gidley said in a statement Saturday night, adding “Rick intends to return to Florida and resume the campaign schedule as soon as is possible.”
Santorum had been scheduled to appear on NBC’s “Meet the Press” and attend church in Miami. Officials did not cancel Sunday’s afternoon events in Sarasota and Punta Gorda.
sabella Santorum has Trisomy 18, a genetic condition caused by the presence of all or part of an extra 18th chromosome.
Love her or no (and I do), the little FaceBook page that rocked Obama continues to harry his Ruling Class ilk:
But this whole thing isn’t really about Newt Gingrich vs. Mitt Romney. It is about the GOP establishment vs. the Tea Party grassroots and independent Americans who are sick of the politics of personal destruction used now by both parties’ operatives with a complicit media egging it on. In fact, the establishment has been just as dismissive of Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. Newt is an imperfect vessel for Tea Party support, but in South Carolina the Tea Party chose to get behind him instead of the old guard’s choice. In response, the GOP establishment voices denounced South Carolinian voters with the same vitriol we usually see from the left when they spew hatred at everyday Americans “bitterly clinging” to their faith and their Second Amendment rights. The Tea Party was once again told to sit down and shut up and listen to the “wisdom” of their betters. We were reminded of the litany of Tea Party endorsed candidates in 2010 who didn’t win. Well, here’s a little newsflash to the establishment: without the Tea Party there would have been no historic 2010 victory at all.
I spoke up before the South Carolina primary to urge voters there to keep this primary going because I have great concern about the GOP establishment trying to anoint a candidate without the blessing of the grassroots and all the needed energy and resources we as commonsense constitutional conservatives could bring to the general election in order to defeat President Obama. Now, I respect Governor Romney and his success. But there are serious concerns about his record and whether as a politician he consistently applied conservative principles and how this impacts the agenda moving forward.
Romney went on about the Olympics in the Jacksonville debate. Does he view the Presidency as the ultimate sporting competition, his own personal gold medal? Is this something he feels he needs to do to prove something to somebody?
With Barack, one doesn’t feel there are any motives at work other than love of power and disdain for American exceptionalism.
With Bush, Newt, Santorum, or even, yes, Paul, one feels some genuine American spirit at work. With Romney, it’s not quite clear. He doesn’t seem diabolical like Barack, but, then, what? Sarah brings that unease forward deftly, but not insultingly. Read the whole thing.
In any case, all of the back-and-forth is truly a feature, not a bug. If conservatives put forth a candidate that inspires, everyone gets behind him. If Romney prevails, everyone still gets behind him, except a tiny fringe of total goofballs, and Romney understands where the will of the people is. If Mitt is indeed a well-oiled weather vane, then what matters is ensuring the wind blows all conservative, all the time.
Also, via American Glob, Sarah Palin applauds the election-year rectal sunshine that #OccupyResoluteDesk offered during the SOTU on Stossel. A great exchange. Sarah Palin offers some qualified support to Ron Paul.
Stacy McCain hates him some what-ifs. But what if Ron Paul were to bring in Sarah as a VP candidate? She also takes a swipe at Peggy Noonan for calling Newt an ‘attack muffin’. Sadly missing from the exchange: Rick Santorum. I’m not sure how the NotMittRomney statue of Legos is constructed, but I hope Santorum has a place in there.
Between Newt’s national greatness vision, Santorum’s social conservative character, and Paul’s fiscal sanity, you have the ingredients that Reagan was able to bring together. One hopes those three can get together, have coffee, and forge some sort of positive alliance, for the good of the country.
Or not. I’m just a voice in the chorus, and have a strong record of predicting the future through advocating what won’t occur.
On a related note, via Lucianne, the Politico seems to think Sarah is a ‘secret’ weapon. That’s about as secret as #OccupyResoluteDesk’s socialism, isn’t it?
Update:Daily Pundit is on record as being totally anti-Mitt:
Although I likely won’t end up doing that, because that tiny fringe of total goofballs is probably going to be large enough to see Mittens Romneycare lose to the worst President in modern times, in the midst of the worst economy since the Great Depression. Impossible though that may seem to you, although the Gentry GOP who are busily cramming this particular crap sandwich down your throat would rather see four more years of Obama than a win by Newt.
And before anybody starts blubbering that I’m betraying the Republican Party, keep in mind that I’m not a Republican. I’m a registered Libertarian. I’m one of those independents the GOP Ruling Class keeps on raving that they have to nominate Mitt in order to attract. Except I’m the sort of independent who isn’t attracted by the likes of Mitt Romney, I’m repulsed.
In response, I care that people vote, but not for whom they vote. Political parties are a necessary evil, but not terribly interesting in and of themselves. Increasing GOP control over Congress is more important, anyway.
There are lots of reasons not to like Newt. Whether those reasons add up to preferring Romney as ‘the only candidate with a chance to defeat Obama’ is a matter for your judgments. But the bases on which some Romney supporters have attacked Gingrich are so patently false that they’re as insulting as the country-club Republicans’ refusal to acknowledge that the TEA Party folks deserve a place at the table. Newt’s an “attack muffin”? Well, that’s a funny line, but Romney’s Hamburger Helper by proxy, and we’re tired of being hamburger handjobbed.
Wearing my Florida shirt at the CNN Jacksonville debate,
Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012 (Photo by Dave Weigel)
JACKSONVILLE, Fla.
On his radio program today, Rush Limbaugh singled out Rick Santorum for his understanding that “ObamaCare is ballgame,” as Rush put it. Limbaugh referred to Santorum’s strong performance in Thursday’s CNN debate, going after Mitt Romney’s own record on health care:
SANTORUM: What Governor Romney just said is that government-run top-down medicine is working pretty well in Massachusetts and he supports it. Now, think about what that means —
ROMNEY: That’s not what I said.
SANTORUM: — going up against Barack Obama, who you are going to claim, well, top-down government-run medicine on the federal level doesn’t work and we should repeal it. And he’s going to say, wait a minute, Governor. You just said that top-down government-run medicine in Massachusetts works well.
Folks, we can’t give this issue away in this election. It is about fundamental freedom. Whether the United States government or even a state government — you have Amendment 1 (ph) here offered by Scott Pleitgen (ph), who, by the way, endorsed me today, and it’s going to be on your ballot as to whether there should be a government mandate here in Florida.
According to Governor Romney, that’s OK. If the state does it, that’s OK. If the state wants to enforce it, that’s OK. Those are not the clear contrasts we need if we’re going to defeat Barack Obama. . . .
SANTORUM: Does everybody in Massachusetts have a requirement to buy health care?
ROMNEY: Everyone has a requirement to either buy it or pay the state for the cost of providing them free care. Because the idea of people getting something for free when they could afford to care for themselves is something that we decided in our state was not a good idea. . . .
SANTORUM: Just so I understand this, in Massachusetts , everybody is mandated as a condition of breathing in Massachusetts , to buy health insurance, and if you don’t, and if you don’t, you have to pay a fine.
What has happened in Massachusetts is that people are now paying the fine because health insurance is so expensive. And you have a pre-existing condition clause in yours, just like Barack Obama.
So what is happening in Massachusetts, the people that Governor Romney said he wanted to go after, the people that were free-riding, free ridership has gone up five-fold in Massachusetts. Five times the rate it was before. Why? Because…
ROMNEY: That’s total, complete…
SANTORUM: I’ll be happy to give you the study. Five times the rate it has gone up. Why? Because people are ready to pay a cheaper fine and then be able to sign up to insurance, which are now guaranteed under “Romney-care,” than pay high cost insurance, which is what has happened as a result of “Romney-care.”
ROMNEY: First of all, it’s not worth getting angry about.
Limbaugh said it is worth getting angry about, and many Republican voters who watched last night’s debate are probably reconsidering whether the media’s predetermined Mitt-vs.-Newt frontrunner narrative is overlooking the possibility that neither Romney nor Gingrich is the best choice to take on Obama. One Florida Republican who sees Rick Santorum as the best hope for conservatives is Florida state Sen. Scott Plakon, who endorsed Santorum Thursday:
Scott Plakon said: “Rick Santorum is a man who has consistently shown that he can be trusted to stand by his deeply held conservative principles regardless of the way the political winds blow and will be a steady, even hand in leading America towards prosperity and liberty again.
“He has consistently shown that he is willing to make decisions not for the next election cycle, but for the next generation. That is exactly the kind of leader and values we need to confront the failed policies and leadership of the Obama administration and to return America to the shining city on a hill that President Reagan spoke of.”
I caught up with Plakon in the “spin room” after last night’s debate and asked him about his switch from backing Herman Cain to supporting Santorum:
Thursday’s debate, the 19th televised debate among Republican presidential candidates this year, certainly did not lack fireworks. And while many political junkies have become weary of watching these affairs, the event here on the campus of the University of North Florida may be as decisive as the South Carolina debates that were credited with helping Gingrich score a crucial win there Saturday. Polls this week in Florida show Romney pulling away, and the former Massachusetts governor had one of his best-ever debate performances Thursday, while Gingrich had one of his worst yet.
While arguments between the two Florida frontrunners got the biggest play, however, Thursday was also an impressive performance for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Polls show Santorum running a distant third in the Sunshine State, but he slammed both Gingrich and Romney for their previous stances on health care. . . .
Read the whole thing, although I confess it was written in a condition of complete exhaustion. CNN neglected to provide coffee in the filing center, and I also ran out of cigarettes before the debate ended. I managed to file my column by midnight, then came back to the hotel room, fell asleep about 2 a.m. and didn’t wake up until 10:30 a.m.
After remarks at Florida State University geared toward social conservatives, Santorum rolled out the endorsement of state Rep. Scott Plakon, R-Longwood, a former top Herman Cain supporter. Plakon told reporters he chose Santorum for his conservatism, after Newt Gingrich’s recent “Obama style” ads turned Plakon off.
“We’re not going anywhere. We’re staying in this race for the long haul. I think we’re playing for the next states,” Santorum told reporters afterward.
Still, questions persisted because he’s not looking toward any celebration on Election Night. He will be in Florida on Sunday and Monday for events, including in Sarasota and Miami. No promises after that.
Said Santorum: “We’re just trying to figure out Monday from that point on what we’re going to do and if whether we’re going to stay here on Election Day, when you really can’t campaign, maybe start going to another state and start doing some campaigning. We want to use every single day to campaign. And we’re sort of up in the air to exactly how that works.”
Santorum’s plans are in flux, and so are mine. I’ve got a 1,500-word article due today for the March print edition of The American Spectator, and there’s an event tonight in Orlando where Romney is expected to get the endorsement of the governor of Puerto Rico. It’s about a three-hour drive, and the event starts at 8 p.m. Tempus fugits and deadline looms.
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. CONCLUSION 1 a.m. ET: Excuse my long absence. Had to go to the spin room for the post-debate action, then write a column for The American Spectator. I was hesitant to say this earlier but, did Rick Santorum kick butt or what?
Because I wanted to believe he did well, I felt that maybe I was prejudiced. But then I saw Guy Benson’s post at Townhall:
What a night for the former Pennsylvania Senator … he definitely made a very serious case that he might be the best Not Romney in the race.
No argument. Newt was off his game tonight, and I’d score Romney the winner — that is to say, I think Mitt did what he needed to do to win here Tuesday. But I suspect a lot of people watched that debate and said to themselves, “Hey, that Santorum kid’s pretty feisty.”
9:30 p.m. ET: Newt talks about the “Romney attack machine,” defends his claim to being a latter-day Reagan.
9:25 p.m. ET: Admit it: Rick Santorum won the Best Wife competition.
9:16 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum wants Marco Rubio in his cabinet. Newt wants Rubio as VP. Romney recites the names of lots of Latinos who haven’t self-deported.
9:12 p.m. ET: Mitt Romney: “We’re insisting on personal responsibility.” This is good for Santorum to be able to go back-and-forth with Romney, thus ending the Mitt-and-Newt Show. Also, he name-checked Scott Plakon.
9:07 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum slams Newt and Mitt for their records on health care.
9:03 p.m. ET: Lynn Frazier is unemployed and wants health insurance. Ron Paul blames government for inflating medical costs.
8:59 p.m. ET: Newt accuses Santorum of being “cheap.”
8:58 p.m. ET: Mitt says, “You’re fired.” Accuses Newt of pandering. “We’ve got to say no to this kind of spending.”
8:57 p.m. ET: Newt warns of Chinese dominance of space.
8:55 p.m. ET: Ron Paul wants to send Newt to the moon.
8:50 p.m. ET: Question about NASA and manned space flight, because all politics is local. And galactic.
8:49 p.m. ET: Wolf Blitzer asks Ron Paul, age 76, if he’s willing to release his medical records. Paul makes a joke about age discrimination.
8:48 p.m. ET: Ron Paul talks about currency. Sound money.
8:46 p.m. ET: Santorum on 28% top tax rate: “If it’s good enough for Reagan, it’s good enough for me.” Get’s a laugh with, “I wish I made as much money as Mitt Romney.”
8:45 p.m. ET: Newt says he’s “the opposite of Obama.”
8:43 p.m. ET: More talk about personal finances. Newt gets caught trying to say he didn’t say what he said. Newt’s in a hole, but won’t stop digging.
8:36 p.m. ET: Ron and Rick get to have their say about Fannie and Freddie. Santorum draws cheers for demanding that they “focus on the issues.”
8:34 p.m. ET: Newt defends himself ably against the lobbying charge. But what was he paid $1.6 million for?
8:33 p.m. ET: Mitt stings Newt on mutual funds, draws cheers.
8:31 p.m. ET: Newt says Romney “has been attacking me inaccurately, and he knows it.” It’s getting nasty again.
8:30 p.m. ET: Mitt Romney gets a question about Fannie and Freddie, and starts talking about Newt Gingrich.
8:28 p.m. ET: Now it’s the Ron and Rick Show. These guys really don’t like each other.
8:25 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum talks about Honduras, accuses Obama of supporting Marxists in Latin America.
8:24 p.m. ET: A lady named Vasquez has a question about trade with Latin America. Ron Paul loves him some free trade.
8:22 p.m. ET: It’s turning into the Mitt-Newt Show again.
8:21 p.m. ET: Newt wants everybody to learn English.
8:20 p.m. ET: Mitt: “Our problem is not 11 million grandmothers.”
8:19 p.m. ET: Romney: “I am pro-immigrant. . . . I want them to come here legally.”
8:18 p.m. ET: Romney accuses Newt of “over-the-top rhetoric,” invokes Marco Rubio twice, gets a big cheer from the audience.
8:17 p.m. ET: Newt Gingrich won’t answer a direct question about his accusation that Romney is “anti-immigrant.”
8:16 p.m. ET: Ron Paul panders to the Vaguely Incoherent.
8:14 p.m. ET: Mitt defends self-deportation. Did you know his father was from Mexico? It’s true. Look it up. Anyway, Romney’s answer is long and complicated.
8:12 p.m. ET: Newt is in favor of a “guest worker” program.
8:11 p.m. ET: On immigration, Rick Santorum wants to enforce the law. This is radical extremism!
8:09 p.m. ET: Candidates say a few words. Rick Santorum introduces his 93-year-old mom, who’s a senior citizen, kinda like Ron Paul.
8:04 p.m. ET: The candidates have been introduced.
8:02 p.m. ET: That was some good pre-debate hype, huh?
8 p.m. ET: And we’re LIVE!
* * * PREVIOUSLY (7:29 p.m. ET) * * *
We’re on the scene here at the University of North Florida where, at 8 p.m. ET, the four remaining Republican presidential candidates will debate on CNN. A few quick headlines for discussion:
My flight leaves Baltimore-Washington International Airport about 9 a.m. and arrives in Jacksonville about 1 p.m. By the time this post goes live, I’ll be on my way to the airport. But I’m troubled by the news reports indicating that Rick Santorum has evidently decided to leave the campaign trail in Florida after tonight’s debate:
Speaking to reporters here [in Naples], the former Pennsylvania senator said was unsure if he would be in Florida the night of the primary, committing only to campaigning in the state [Thursday and Friday]. On Saturday, he’ll head home to Virginia for fundraisers and to prepare his tax records which he plans to soon make public.
Santorum said this weekend will be the first time he’s slept in his own bed since Christmas. . . .
But the GOP hopeful has been seen strong crowds in the South, drawing more than 1,000 supporters to a Megachurch here. And his rhetoric suggests he has no plans to leave the race anytime soon.
“This race has just started. It’s a three man race. We’re going to be in this race for the long term,” he said.
OK, on one hand, this makes a lot of sense. Florida is a winner-take-all state, and if the best Santorum can hope for is third place (as polls currently indicate) it’s only logical that he would rather raise money in Virginia than to spend money traveling around Florida in a last-minute effort that might boost his final showing by a few percentage points, without making any significant difference in terms of delegates.
Nevertheless, it will cost him some potentially valuable media exposure to be off the trail, and a disappointment to his Florida supporters if their candidate doesn’t show up for a Primary Night event in Orlando.
Turning to more practical considerations, however, the campaign calendar becomes more complex and challenging after Florida. There’s the Feb. 4 caucuses in Nevada, expected to be a test of strength between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. (Lots of Mormons and libertarians in Nevada.) I’d be surprised if either Gingrich or Santorum decided to make an all-out effort there, although if they could knock Romney down a few points, it might enable the Paulistas to deprive Romney of a win.
A better chance for Santorum would be on Tuesday, Feb. 7, when both Minnesota and Colorado hold caucuses. With two states on one day, Santorum could focus his strongest campaign effort in one (probably Minnesota, an industrial state with lots of Catholics), trying to score a stronger-than-expected finish, and leave the other to Romney and Gingrich.
Then, however, there’s a three-week gap in the calendar before the Arizona and Michigan primary on Feb. 28, and I’d expect Santorum to go all-out in Michigan: It’s home turf for Romney (whose father was the state’s governor 40 years ago), but it’s also the kind of blue-collar Midwestern industrial state that has been the focus of Santorum’s economic message. If by some miracle of dogged determination, Santorum could pull an upset win in Michigan — his second victory over Romney — the 2012 campaign would be a whole new ballgame. And that would be doubly true if, while Santorum’s got Romney pinned down in Michigan, Gingrich mounts a similar all-or-nothing battle against Romney in Arizona.
That kind of strategic hypothetical is getting way ahead of the game, however. Meanwhile, there’s Florida, where Allahpundit says Romney “seems to have stopped the bleeding, at least. . . . Looks like Mitt’s Freddie Mac attacks at the last debate were more effective than we thought.”
OK, but who is this “we,” Kemosabe? Never mind. From the standpoint of stopping Romney, Santorum’s reported pull-out from Florida is good news because it could help Newt hand Mitt another defeat, confirming that Romney’s “inevitability” is over. But Newt continues playing the “grandiose” game, generating headlines like this:
Yeah, he’s pandering for aerospace industry votes on the Space Coast, but those people probably don’t mind. It’s only somewhere down the line — when Romney or Obama cuts a TV attack ad talking about the outrageous cost of this space project — that Newt will be forced to pay a political price for spouting kooky sci-fi stuff like this.
UPDATE: Ruh-roh — Newt down by six in the latest Florida poll? High stakes in tonight’s CNN debate. Much will depend on how Wolf Blitzer runs the show. Will he have Mitt and Rick beating up on Newt? Rick and Newt beating up on Mitt? The moderators of these debates exercise an important influence over the proceedings, and some Ph.D. student in communications could get a dissertation of how this year’s debates have been stage-managed.
Late last night I got an e-mail from CNN’s lovely and charming publicist, Jennifer Scoggins, telling me I’m OK with the credentials for the debate. The question is whether there will be room for me in the filing center.
