CRISIS LOOMS FOR HERMAN CAIN CAMPAIGN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE UPDATE: Cain Tells CNN He’ll Make Decision ‘Within the Next Several Days’

Sources close to the Herman Cain presidential campaign in New Hampshire say that the candidate will be flying into a firestorm of trouble when he arrives in Manchester for events tonight.

Reporters for New Hampshire news organizations today contacted Cain campaign insiders in the state asking if they were aware that at least seven Republican members of the state legislature who had previously endorsed the Atlanta businessman were preparing to rescind their endorsements. These additional defections follow in the wake of reports yesterday that two GOP state legislators who had endorsed Cain had switched their support to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Meanwhile, some of Cain’s most enthusiastic supporters in the state insist that there must be major changes to the campaign. These supporters cited grievances that include what they call the incompetence of Cain’s New Hampshire state campaign director Charlie Spano, as well as widespread discontent among Cain’s supporters with his campaign’s national staff.

UPDATE: Cain is scheduled to arrive this evening in Manchester to hold a private meeting with his New Hampshire supporters at 7:30 p.m., and has scheduled a press conference for 8:45 p.m. ET.

WMUR-TV reported yesterday that two GOP state representatives, Sam Cataldo and William Panek, were switching their endorsements from Cain to Gingrich. Panek told CBS News that the Cain campaign’s “handling of [sexual accusations] does bother me,” and added: “It makes [Cain’s endorsers] look bad too because we’re supporting him.”

WMUR also reported that yesterday afternoon, a few hours after Cain told staff and volunteers on a conference call that he was “re-assessing” his campaign, Cain’s Manchester campaign office was locked, with an “out to lunch” sign on the door — at 2:30 p.m.

UPDATE II: John DiStaso of the Manchester (N.H.) Union Leader reported yesterday:

Cain is scheduled to return to New Hampshire Wednesday night and meet with supporters and the media at about 8:30 p.m. at his state campaign headquarters at 62 Lowell St., Manchester, said spokesman Charlie Spano. . . .
Cain spokesman [J.D.] Gordon told the Granite Status in an email that Cain still intends to appear at the New Hampshire Union Leader on Thursday for an interview. . . .
Spano said that he has heard nothing to indicate that Cain has changed his planned appearances elsewhere in the state on Thursday.
“This is a serious matter to have to deal with but at the same time, the New Hampshire staff is determined to go forward with the campaign and do what is necessary to compete and bring the message of economic revival through his ‘9-9-9 plan’ to voters,” Spano said.
Spano said the four members of Cain’s New Hampshire staff “believe in his integrity and that this is a man who was helping a friend and has helped friends in his life.”

UPDATE III: While Cain’s New Hampshire operations appeared on the verge of implosion today, the candidate made a scheduled appearance in Ohio, which does not hold its primary until June. The loudest complaints against the Cain campaign this year have been from supporters in early primary and caucus states — including Iowa and New Hampshire — that the candidate has not appeared often enough in those key states.

ABC News reported that, during his appearance today in West Chester, Ohio, Cain said he is a victim of “character assassination” and said he has gotten “a groundswell of positive support” in the wake of an Atlanta businesswoman’s claim that she had a 13-year affair with Cain, a claim he has denied.

UPDATE IV: CNN’s Jim Acosta files a report from Ohio, and here is a transcript of his on-air report to the network:

RANDI KAYE, CNN ANCHOR: Just moments ago our Jim Acosta got a very quick one-on-one with Herman Cain, the man who is debating whether to stay in the race for the president. Jim joins us on the phone right now.
Jim, what did he say?
JIM ACOSTA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Randi, you know, we only asked him a couple of questions. That’s all the time we had. He was doing the rope line inside a Marriott Hotel in Dayton , Ohio , after wrapping up a speech. And I just asked him very quickly, are you vowing to stay in the race? And all he would say is, we are reassessing and re-evaluating. And then I asked him again, does that mean you’re staying in the race? And he would — he only responded, we are re-evaluating and reassessing. And then I asked him, when will you have a final decision on your future plans? And he said within the next several days.
So, it sounds like Herman Cain is not going to drop out of this race today. It sounds that (ph) he may not drop out at all. We listened to his speech inside this hotel just a few minutes ago and he was very defiant, saying that character assassination would not drive him out of this race. But when we asked him specifically, on the record, on camera, whether or not he is going to stay in this race, he did not give us a straight answer, Randi.
KAYE: Jim, does he seem at all worn down or frustrated by all of this?
ACOSTA: You know, if anything, he looked emboldened. I have to say, he gave a very fiery speech here. It was basically his standard stump speech. It had most of the one liners that people who have covered him closely have heard before. But he really whipped up this crowd here.
He had a very large crowd inside this ball room just a few moments ago and they were eating it up. And they were shouting back to him, Randi, don’t get out of this race. Stay in the race. We need you, Herman Cain. So, the candidate was defiant and so was his audience.
KAYE: Jim Acosta, a nice get, getting a quick interview there with Herman Cain. Thank you for that reporting.

UPDATE V: Linked at POH Diaries and Legal Insurrection — thanks!

Just got an e-mail from Cain campaign chief of staff Mark Block, acknowledging he had seen this article. The last time I saw Block was when we had a smoke together outside a Cain post-debate party in Spartanburg, S.C., on Nov. 12. I told him then, as I had told him many times before: Bring back Dan Tripp.

We were off the record, so I can’t report Block’s reaction, and I get paid to cover campaigns, not to offer campaigns unsolicited advice. But the word I’m getting out of New Hampshire — i.e., that would-be Cain volunteers have been kept at arm’s length by Spano’s hired staff in Manchester — suggests that the services of Tripp (or someone like him) could come in handy. Just sayin’ . . .

 

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Manchester (N.H.) Union Leader Endorses Newt Gingrich for President

Unexpectedly?

For President, Newt Gingrich
This newspaper endorses Newt Gingrich in the New Hampshire Presidential Primary.
America is at a crucial crossroads. It is not going to be enough to merely replace Barack Obama next year. We are in critical need of the innovative, forward-looking strategy and positive leadership that Gingrich has shown he is capable of providing. . . .

It’s all over the top of Memeorandum:

Union Leader endorses Newt Gingrich
— Politico

Gingrich wins Union Leader endorsement
— The Hill

Newt Gingrich Gets Big
New Hampshire Endorsement

— Fox News

Will this endorsement help Gingrich raise lots of money? Yep. Will it prevent Mitt Romney from winning New Hampshire? Nope.

“Behold . . . a little cloud . . . like a man’s hand,” on the horizon:

After Tuesday’s debate sponsored by the Heritage Foundation and American Enterprise Institute, The American Spectator‘s George Neumayr criticized Gingrich for his “scolding tone” on immigration, saying that Gingrich had “alienated conservatives … with his holier-than-thou approach to illegal immigration.” Tim Albrecht, spokesman for Iowa’s Republican Gov. Terry Brandstad, said on Twitter after the debate: “Newt did himself significant harm tonight on immigration among caucus and primary voters.”
Roy Beck of Numbers USA, a group that advocates for lower immigration levels, said voters won’t like Gingrich’s “long-term record” on immigration.
“In fact, Gingrich’s leadership in Congress is one of the reasons we have so many illegal aliens today who have been able to stay in this country for 25 years,” Beck said in an online column Wednesday. “That’s the supreme irony of Gingrich’s pro-amnesty remarks in last night’s debate. The man who helped ensure that illegal aliens from the 1980s and 1990s are still here in 2011 asked voters last night to consider the inhumanity of making illegal aliens leave this country after they have sunk such long roots here.”
Beck noted that Gingrich had a career grade of “D” on Numbers USA’s report card on immigration issues.

Just sayin’ . . . a couple more headlines:

Did Newt Gingrich just
flip-flop on immigration?

— Christian Science Monitor

Rivals say Gingrich stance
is equivalent to amnesty

— Des Moines Register

 


Nevada Sets Caucus Date for Feb. 4, Averting December Primary in N.H.

Florida set off a predictable chain reaction by jumping its primary to Jan. 31, and one consequence was the threat by New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner to move that state’s primary to as early as Dec. 6. The problem was that Iowa had moved its caucuses (originally scheduled Feb. 6) to Jan. 3, and Nevada initially announced its caucuses would move to Jan. 14. But New Hampshire state law requires their primary to be on a Tuesday at least seven days before any nominating event other than the Iowa caucuses, which made Jan. 10 unworkable.

The thermonuclear option was averted Saturday when Nevada voted to hold its caucuses Feb. 4. While Gardner has not yet officially announced the date for New Hampshire, it is likely that the schedule for the first five events will now be:

Iowa caucuses ………………… Tuesday, Jan. 3
New Hampshire primary …. Tuesday, Jan. 10
South Carolina primary …… Saturday, Jan. 21
Florida primary ……………… Tuesday, Jan. 31
Nevada caucuses ……………. Saturday, Feb. 4

This is not ideal — I’ll still have to leave for Iowa the day after Christmas — but it is better than if New Hampshire had jumped into December.

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‘Howdy. Thank You, Erick.’

Those were the first four words of Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s announcement speech at the Red State Gathering in Charleston, S.C., on Aug. 13. At the time, I was the only one who saw Perry’s diss of Iowa Republicans — his deliberate attempt to upstage the Ames Straw Poll held the same day — as an ominous portent of doom.

Perry’s decision to make his announcement in South Carolina was widely viewed at the time as a genius move that would lock down his support in a crucial early primary state, and once he emerged as the most viable conservative alternative to Mitt Romney, Perry would have no trouble making up whatever he’d lost in Iowa by dissing Ames.

Such was the conventional wisdom in August, but now today (via Wombat’s “Live at Five” aggregation) we see this headline:

Cain Takes Lead In South Carolina
ATLANTA — Herman Cain holds a decisive lead in the South Carolina Republican primary, according to a survey conducted Sunday for The Augusta Chronicle.
The InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll of 476 registered voters likely to vote in the GOP primary gave Cain 32 percent, twice the share of Mitt Romney’s 16.
Rick Perry holds 12 percent, making him essentially tied with Romney because the difference is within the 5 percent margin of error.
“In this case, South Carolina is a three-man race,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery. . . .

In a telephone conversation over the weekend, a Perry supporter tried to convince me that the Texas governor is still the only viable alternative to Romney, that Herman Cain can’t possibly win the nomination, and that anyone who is supporting any candidate other than Perry is therefore effectively pro-Romney.

Believe what you want to believe, sweetheart. And for all I know, you may be right. I don’t even get invited to BlogCon, so I must be a complete idiot, which is why Perry is in fifth place — single digits! —  in recent Iowa polls, while The Guy Who Can’t Possibly Win the Nomination is leading Romney by eight points in the Hawkeye State.

I’m a complete idiot who knows nothing about politics or blogging (just ask Tabitha Hale), so it is beyond my ability to explain that, or to fathom why Rick “Viable Alternative” Perry is in sixth place — trailing Jon Huntsman! — in the recent New Hampshire polls.

By the time you get to the Stacy Wasn’t Invited Conference in Denver, my dear Perry-loving friend, maybe all of this will have changed.

Maybe Rick Perry will have bought $15 million worth of debate mojo, and maybe Herman Cain will have forgotten how to tie his own shoes. And then all the bloggers in Denver can laugh at me some more, just like you’ve been laughing at me all along.

If you don’t think I’m an idiot, please: Hit the freaking tip jar!

UPDATE: By the way, I mean to get an explanation from the Cain campaign about this video snippet from ABC News:

Either (a) somebody in Iowa isn’t doing their job right, or (b) ABC News invented a story. Either way, it’s not encouraging.

462 Days Until Jan. 20, 2013

Inauguration Day, when four long years of endless misery known as the Obama presidency come to an end. And I’m counting the days.

It’s 79 days until Jan. 3: The Iowa GOP caucuses.

And it’s 107 days until the Jan. 31 Florida primary.

To give you a sense of proportion, it’s been 72 days since I departed from Reagan National Airport — where I set up the National Affairs Desk in the airport lounge —  for my 10-day trip to Iowa leading up to the Aug. 11 Fox News debate and the Aug. 13 Ames Straw Poll.

Yesterday I talked to Dan Collins, who gave me the name of his Rumanian friend who lives in Iowa City, about 30 miles from Cedar Rapids. A one-way ticket from Baltimore-Washington International Airport to Cedar Rapids departing the day after Christmas — Dec. 26, which is 71 days from today — would be $281 if I booked it now. So I’d have a full week in Iowa before the caucuses on Jan. 3.

And a flight departing Jan. 4 from Des Moines to Boston’s Logan International Airport would be $145 if I booked it now. Continue reading 462 Days Until Jan. 20, 2013 →

Will N.H. Flinch in Primary Standoff?

A glimmer of hope to avoid a December date for the New Hampshire primary:

New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner is imperiling the state’s place in the political world by threatening to hold a December primary, New Hampshire GOP Chairman Wayne MacDonald charged Thursday. . . .
MacDonald urged Gardner to hold the state’s election Jan. 10. . . .
Gardner, who has full control over the state’s primary date, released a statement Wednesday saying he was willing to drastically reshuffle the primary calendar to keep New Hampshire at least seven days ahead of the next nominating contest. He said the only way he’d consider Jan. 10 is if Nevada moves its caucus — currently scheduled for Jan. 14 — back three days. On Wednesday night, the Nevada GOP declined to make the move.
Reiterating his confidence in Gardner, MacDonald repeated his call, first reported by the New Hampshire Union Leader, to take a more lax interpretation of the state law that requires a seven day buffer before the next “similar election.”
“There is a difference between a primary and a caucus, so I don’t think Nevada should affect us,” MacDonald said. “The 10th, to me, seems to be the most sensible date.”

That might be just enough of a loophole to allow New Hampshire to save face. Let’s pray Secretary of State Gardner will listen to reason.

If he does do the primary on Jan. 10, who gets screwed? Nevada. Because I think most reporters will be like me: It doesn’t make sense to leave Manchester, N.H., on the morning of the 11th to fly to Nevada to cover their caucus on the 14th, and then get on a plane the 15th to fly to South Carolina (their primary is the 21st). Better to go directly from New Hampshire to South Carolina and let Nevada fend for itself.

So a Jan. 10 New Hampshire primary would probably deprive the Jan. 14 Nevada caucuses of a good bit of press coverage, and might just give me an excuse to come home for a few days after New Hampshire before hitting the road for South Carolina.

Nate Silver Wonders: Will N.H. Primary Move to December Backfire for Romney?

Yesterday’s news that New Hampshire may move its primary to as early as Dec. 6 (!) was presumed to be good news for Mitt Romney, who has made the Granite State his must-win for 2012. But by a series of complex calculations, Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight comes to the conclusion that a December primary for New Hampshire might be bad for Romney.

Like I said, it’s complex, but the basic idea is that by pulling Mitt’s sure winner out of the normal sequence, the December date would rob Romney of the perception of momentum heading into Nevada, South Carolina and Florida.

The front-loading scramble set off by Florida’s decision to jump from March to January has set in motion a chain-reaction of consequences and we don’t know what the ultimate result will be except . . .

Hit the freaking tip jar! Serious thanks to readers who have already contributed to the Shoe Leather Fund, because this front-loading has completely wrecked my plans for the campaign trail.

Before those treacherous bastards in Florida started this mess, the Iowa caucuses were scheduled for Feb. 6 — nearly four months away. That would have given me more than 100 days to raise travel money. Now Iowa’s tentatively slated for Jan. 3, meaning I’ve lost five weeks, and will probably have to leave for Des Moines the day after Christmas (Monday, Dec. 26) just to get in a week of coverage before the caucuses.

After that, it’s not yet clear, because if Nevada will move its caucuses from Jan. 14 to Jan. 17 (or later), New Hampshire could hold its primary Jan. 10. But if New Hampshire goes either Dec. 6 or Dec. 13, then I might have to leave Nov. 28 (the Monday after Thanksgiving) to get a complete week on the ground up there.

A full-speed trainwreck looms ahead, perhaps less than six weeks away, and meanwhile I’ve got to pay back Smitty for covering our trip to Vegas for the big debate Tuesday. And so I’m now rattling the tip jar like an epileptic on methamphetamine, because if I don’t have some kind of reserve built up by the time this whole thing kicks off, I might end up stranded next January in South Carolina with no way to make it to Florida, where I aim to wreak vengeance on the worthless RINO-hugging GOP Establishment sons of bitches who inflicted this catastrophe on me.





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REPUBLICAN ARMAGEDDON LOOMS: New Hampshire Threatens December Primary Unless Nevada Moves Caucus

A big tip of the fedora to Bob Belevedere of Camp of the Saints for this alert: In a message sent by New Hampshire’s Secretary of State (see PDF here), he says that unless Nevada changes its caucus date from Jan. 14 to Jan. 17 or later, “I cannot rule out the possibility of a December primary.”

This frightening news — meaning we may be less than two months away from the New Hampshire primary — comes on the heels of my acquiring media credentials for Tuesday’s debate in Las Vegas.

Please, I beg you: Hit the freaking tip jar!

UPDATE: Molly Ball at The Atlantic:

CONCORD, N.H. — New Hampshire’s primary could be held as early as Dec. 6, 2011, Secretary of State William Gardner warned today.
In a statement issued Wednesday afternoon, Garnder, who sets the date, said that if Nevada sticks with its current plan to hold a caucus on Jan. 14, “I cannot rule out the possibility of a December primary.”
Gardner wants Nevada to accept a date of Jan. 17 or later in order to keep the 2012 primaries from spilling into 2011. But if it does not, he said, “The dates of Tuesday, December 13th, and Tuesday, December 6th are realistic options, and we have logistics in place to make either date happen if needed.”
The primary calendar has been in chaos since a Florida panel decided to hold that state’s primary on Jan. 31, scratching the parties’ plans to delay the beginning of the nominating process until February.
South Carolina has scheduled its primary for Jan. 21, prompting Nevada’s Republican Party to claim Jan. 14, a Saturday, for its caucus. Iowa Republicans have signaled they are looking at Jan. 3 for their caucus. . . .

Blame it all on those vicious RINO-hugging bastards in Florida: Catastrophic results, possibly leaving me with mere weeks to hustle up enough cash to be able to book travel for coverage of the 2012 campaign. A desperate crisis for the nation, and for my professional career.

Once more, I beg you: Hit the freaking tip jar!

UPDATE II: Memeorandum thread for the story by Cameron Joseph of The Hill., whose article omits the key phrase “vicious RINO-hugging bastards in Florida.” That’s why you need me. Hit the freaking tip jar!

UPDATE III: Just to remind you: Florida is to blame for all of this, as I have been warning since Sept. 28. The corrupt jackals who run the Florida GOP did this evil thing for their own selfish reasons, in contravention of RNC rules to which they had agreed. Their disastrous decision to move the Florida primary from March to Jan. 31 was undertaken with the approval of — and quite possibly under orders from — Florida GOP Chairman Lenny Curry, reputed to be a close ally of the Crist-like RINO Senate candidate George LeMieux.

Furthermore, the top Republicans in the Florida state legislature were all in on it. And cui bono?

After a rally Tuesday in the Villages, Romney seemed intent Wednesday on making significant strides with those who can help drive his campaign in Florida, huddling behind closed doors at the state Capitol with Gov. Rick Scott, Attorney General Pam Bondi and a roster of lobbyists who also are Republican fund-raisers. . . .
Senate President Mike Haridopolos, R-Melbourne, was among those stopping by Bondi’s office to meet the candidate, soon after Romney’s Florida finance chairman, Jacksonville businessman John Rood, exited.

This crooked scam was orchestrated by GOP insiders in Tallahassee for the benefit of their BFF, Mitt Romney.


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