Vegas, Baby: Republican Armies March Toward Political Battle of the Century

From: NVDebate ([email protected])
To: [email protected];
Date: Wed, October 12, 2011 2:53:06 PM

Subject: RE: CREDENTIALS REQUEST – NEVADA DEBATE

Hi Robert,
You have been issued credentials. Please note:
The credential will grant journalists access to the press filing center and media spin room, which will be located in Hall G of the Sands Expo and Convention Center.
###
Jennifer A. Scoggins
CNN Washington

My flight is already booked, departing Monday from Dulles International via LAX to Vegas. After last night’s debate in New Hampshire, this CNN debate in Las Vegas is sure to be a pivotal event in the 2012 presidential campaign. Via Memeorandum, a few headlines:

After another bad debate, is Rick Perry finished?
— Byron York, Washington Examiner

Mitt Romney builds case for inevitability
— Jonathan Martin, Politico

Cain leads nationally
— Tom Jensen, Public Policy Polling

Ashton Kutcher’s Alleged Mistress
Reveals Details of One-Night Stand

— Tim Nudd, People magazine

Maybe that last headline isn’t quite so obviously relevant, from a strictly political perspective. But you see the basic point: The fate of a nation hangs in the balance as this critical Las Vegas debate looms ahead.

This is the crucial moment — indeed, possibly a turning point in American history — and we’ll be reporting live from the scene, war correspondents at the GOP’s Political Armageddon. Continue reading Vegas, Baby: Republican Armies March Toward Political Battle of the Century →

DNC’s Debbie Wasserman-Schultz Does Post-Debate Spin for … Newt Gingrich?

Republican consultant Brad Marston was in the “spin room” after the GOP presidential debate at Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H., when he caught this unusual image: Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz giving her spin on the debate while standing under the Newt Gingrich sign.

Maybe this is Newt’s reward for supporting Dede Scozzafava?

We Don’t Get Bloomberg TV …

. . . but we do get Da Tech Guy who’s in New Hampshire live-blogging the debate at Dartmouth College, where the moderators have been up to the typical “liberals-asking-Republicans-gotcha-questions” tricks.

Does anyone remember when they had that Democratic debate in 2008 with George Will, Rush Limbaugh, Bill Kristol and Byron York as moderators?

No? Me neither, because it didn’t happen.

And yet we get Karen Tumulty questioning Republicans.

Because that’s “fair.”

UPDATE: The post-debate wrapup on Bloomberg, which I found online, seems to indicate Cain got a lot of heat over his 9-9-9 tax plan, but defended it pretty well. Perry did nothing to reverse his slide.

Maggie’s Notebook did some excellent live-blogging and comments: “Sheesh! The moderators were terrible.”

Linked by The Lonely Conservative — thanks!

UPDATE II: Da Tech Guy now has his own Memeorandum thread, which is kinda cool because he didn’t have credentials. He’d told me that the credentialing process seemed to require jumping through too many hoops. So he got there four hours early, set up in the “spin room,” acted as if he belonged there, and nobody bothered to ask for his credentials. As Roxeanne DeLuca said: “You’ve created a monster.”

The Wall Street Journal live-blogged the debate and VodkaPundit drunk-blogged it. Given the weak penetration of Bloomberg TV — what percentage of homes get that channel? — this will almost certainly be the least-viewed of all the GOP debates this year. And considering how lousy the moderators were, that’s a good thing.

UPDATE III: Richard Dunham of the Houston Chronicle:

After being the central figure in his first three Republican presidential debates and a self-described “pinata” for the rest of the field, Texas Gov. Rick Perry was largely a bystander Tuesday night as GOP presidential hopefuls focused their attacks on the new surging conservative, Herman Cain.
While most of the two-hour discussion at Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H., focused on the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO’s “9-9-9? economic plan and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 59-point economic plan, Perry told moderator Charlie Rose of Bloomberg News that he wasn’t ready to present a detailed plan just yet.
“I’m not going to lay it out all for you tonight,” he said. “Mitt has had six years to be working on a plan. I have been in this for about eight weeks.”
During the debate co-sponsored by Bloomberg News, the Washington Post and WBIN-TV, candidates focused most of their fire on Cain, whose recent rise in the polls earned him a center seat alongside Romney, relegating Perry to the second ring with Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

UPDATE IV: From Michelle Malkin’s debate recap:

Rick Perry once again failed to deliver. He was languid. Passive. Half-hearted. Listless. . . .
I’m really, really trying to be nice. . . .
Fail. Texas-sized fail.

Malkin quotes Philip Klein on Twitter: “Perry makes Pawlenty look like a world champion debater.” T-Paw’s a good comparison, although I could think of a better one, but Malkin and Klein are both too young to remember Ed Muskie, the biggest front-runner flop in American political history.

I don’t know if I’ve said this before, but everything you ever need to know about presidential campaigns, you can learn by reading one book: Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail ‘72.

And it’s funny as hell, too.

UPDATE V: John Hinderaker at Powerline:

Rick Perry, during the half of the debate that I saw, bordered on invisible.  I don’t know whether the pundits who say this was make or break for Perry are right, but it certainly was not a strong night for him. One thing that strikes me as odd is how little mileage Perry gets out of his job creation record in Texas.  He mentioned it a time or two, but, as in prior debates, he didn’t use it effectively as the foundation of his claim to be the strongest candidate.

Perry came into the race on Aug. 13 and had a double-digit lead on Romney by Labor Day — without ever having debated. Perry’s support started to soften after his OK-but-not-great performance in the Sept. 7 Reagan Library debate. Perry clearly lost the Sept. 12 Tampa debate, and his performance at the Sept. 22 Orlando debate was a Hindenburg-at-Lakehurst catastrophe.

It’s simple: Perry is lousy at debating, and these televised debates are the major events of the campaign. Notice by comparison that Cain, while perhaps not an Oxford Union debate champ, has nonetheless learned the trick of deflecting an opponent’s attack, not “getting into the tall grass” of a detailed defense, but rather using it as an opportunity to repeat his own message.

We’ll see if Cain’s rivals, anxious to stop his surging momentum, will be able to land more solid blows next Tuesday in the Las Vegas debate. And we’ll be there in Vegas.

BLAME FLORIDA!

It was reported yesterday (and I noted in passing) that Iowa Republicans have “tentatively” scheduled their presidential caucuses for Jan. 3, but what will Iowa do if New Hampshire goes thermonuclear?

New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner said today he may schedule the first-in-the nation primary as early as Dec. 6, marking the first time ever that New Hampshire voters would pick a presidential candidate in December.
“Any Tuesday in December would be a possibility, but that’s one of them,” Gardner said today, when asked about a Dec. 6 primary. “It’s not something I would do lightly. It would be done regrettably, but if it has to be done, we’re going to comply with our tradition and our state law.”
Gardner said that, from 1916 until 1972, New Hampshire held its primary in March. But he said it has been forced to move up the date in recent years, as other states have pushed up their primary dates to attract more attention from the candidates.
This year, the race for an early vote has been especially fierce. Florida has scheduled its primary for Jan. 31, South Carolina has chosen Jan. 21, and Nevada will hold its caucus on Jan. 14. Iowa has yet to schedule a date for its first-in-the-nation caucus.
Drew Ivers, a member of the GOP Central Committee in Iowa, said the panel met last night to discuss a date for that state’s caucuses, and is leaning toward Jan. 3, the same date it chose in 2008. He said if New Hampshire decides to hold its primary in December, it would certainly spark some consideration of a new date for Iowa. But he said Iowa Republicans last night expressed “a significant reluctance,” to move the caucuses into December, because they believe the state can have more of an impact by holding its caucus in the election year. . . .

There’s more at the link, but you see what kind of heinous madness has resulted from the villainous actions of Florida GOP leaders.

PREVIOUSLY:

What Florida Hath Wrought: Will Christmas Be in Iowa or New Hampshire?

Geographers have long noted that the Florida peninsula hangs off the East Coast of the United States like a small, limp penis. The metaphorical significance was made manifest Friday morning when what I’ve come to regard as “The Evil State” announced that it was moving its primary to Jan. 31, prompting a memorable reaction from Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn:

“The arrogance shown by Florida’s elected leadership is disappointing, but not surprising. Equally troubling is to see this petulant behavior rewarded with our national convention. The consequences of Florida’s intransigence must be swift and severe, including the refusal by the RNC to credential or seat any member of Florida’s presidential primary date commission at the 2012 RNC convention in Tampa.
“Regarding the timing of the First in the Nation Iowa Caucuses, Iowa will remain first. Consistent with tradition, the final Iowa Caucus date will be announced once New Hampshire sets the date of its First in the Nation Primary.”

As I said in my Friday American Spectator column, the RNC-approved schedule — with the Iowa caucuses Feb. 6 — was reasonable and humane. What Florida has done is cruel and insane. Manchester (N.H.) Union Leader columnist John DiStaso has reaction from the Granite State:

The Republican National Committee this afternoon made clear that Republican parties in any state, including New Hampshire, that violate the national party’s primary/caucus calendar by moving their primaries or caucuses earlier than the schedule set out in an RNC rule will lose half its delegates to the national convention next summer.
A senior RNC official said there will be “no discretion, no waivers. Those penalties are in place in our rules. They were enforced in 2008 and they will be enforced in 2012.”
A Florida commission today voted to jump up its primary to Jan. 31 in violation of the RNC rule. It means that New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada will also violate the rule and move their events into January, and possibly, in New Hampshire’s case, into December of this year . . .
[New Hampshire’s Republican National Committeeman Steve] Duprey, a member of the RNC rules committee who was among those who worked since 2008 on the new rule, said of Florida, “I thought they’d be smarter than this.
“This (Florida jump to January) effectively precludes Sarah Palin and anyone else from getting into the race, and it’s unfortunate for the Republican Party and for democracy. It also makes it much more daunting for any candidate who doesn’t have huge cash reserves to be able to compete and capitalize on an early state win.”
Duprey predicted the New Hampshire Primary will probably be held “right after the first of the year again, and could be even earlier than that,” meaning perhaps even in December.

Of course, if New Hampshire moves to December, Iowa’s law will require them to move to December, too. And all of this — all of it — is the fault of the Florida Republican Party leadership. The Hill notes:

The front-loading of the calendar also means presidential candidates will likely have to campaign through Christmas and New Year’s Day.

Isn’t that sweet? “The Florida Republicans Who Stole Christmas”!

By the way: Don’t believe a word those Florida Grinches say about their reasons for doing this. They’re lying through their teeth if they say this has anything to do with trying to make Florida votes count for more in the primary process. What they are doing — and everybody knows this is the real reason — is trying to force an early end to the fight for the GOP nomination.

So far the only candidate in the field who’s said a word about this crooked Florida deal is Rick Santorum. Everybody knows that Florida’s state House Speaker Dean Cannon has endorsed Rick Perry, and many people suspect Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos is a Mitt Romney supporter. By front-loading the primaries, Florida now is in effect trying to stop Herman Cain (or anyone else but Perry or Romney) from having a fair chance to compete with the big-money front-runners.

The Underground Conservative predicts “a front-loaded presidential primary system guaranteed to pick an establishment GOP candidate. Mitt Romney = John McCain 2.0,” and adds:

That’s the end result: the Cocktail Party GOP showing the Tea Party who’s boss.

You may have noticed that the sudden announcement of Florida’s Jan. 31 date swiftly followed Cain’s upset win in the Florida straw poll — a result that had caused some people to urge New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to get in. But there won’t be time now for Christie to organize a campaign in time to compete in Iowa or New Hamphire.

Bonus for the old-boy Establishment? By making this move, the Florida GOP makes it all but certain that Sarah Palin can’t run in 2012.

What would really shake things up — and it would be just like her — is if Palin decided to pay back the Establishment by messing up their little insider game and endorsing Herman Cain.

UPDATE: This is incredible! In a Facebook message to “Sunshine State Sarah,” Speaker Cannon admits what the Florida GOP is doing:

I’ll describe what happened in 2008 as the best proof that the threats of calamity in [Florida RNC member Paul] Paul’s letter are unfounded. In 2008, Iowa went Jan 3, NH went Jan 8, MI on Jan 15, NV and SC on Jan19, Florida went Jan 29, and FL had huge, arguably decisive influence. Twenty six states then held their primaries the next week on Feb 5–the “super Tuesday”–and it was over.

That is to say, Cannon and the Florida GOP are trying to guarantee a repeat of the preposterously early decision in 2008! And this disaster (which gave the nomination to John McCain) Cannon cites as proof that a front-loaded primary calendar in 2012 won’t produce a “calamity”!

Read the rest of Sarah’s post. Like many Floridians, Sarah doesn’t seem to understand how evil this Crist/Greer-style trick really is. Go back to the story I wrote on Election Night 2008:

Perhaps the most important statistic for conservatives to keep in mind today — as pundits pore over and pour out exit-poll data to tell us What It Means — is this: 53 percent of Republican primary voters did not vote for John McCain.

And how did that happen? Florida Republicans led by the corrupt Jim Greer moved up their primary, forcing the front-loaded 2008 calendar described by Cannon. Then Florida’s RINO Gov. Charlie Crist (after promising to endorse Rudy Giuliani) gave his endorsement to John McCain. Just as Cannon said, “Florida went Jan 29, and FL had huge, arguably decisive influence” — McCain won with 36% to Romney’s 31%, and then Super Tuesday sealed the deal.

Yet the Florida GOP’s attempt to repeat that rigged process — which produced a Republican nominee who didn’t get a majority of Republican votes — is claimed by Cannon as proof that 2012 won’t be a “calamity”!

Once Tea Party activists figure out what the Florida GOP bosses are up to, I guarantee you there will be hell to pay.

PREVIOUSLY:

Palin’s Pressure on Perry

Writing about yesterday’s Sarah Palin rally in Iowa, I mentioned the theory that “Palin may enter the 2012 field because of her dissatisfaction with Perry’s campaign.” I resisted the temptation to examine the theory at length, because I wanted to discuss something I’d seen earlier — Dan Riehl’s discussion of the Palin-Perry issue:

For her part, Palin may factor in Perry’s standing in her own decision-making process. . . .
If she opts to run, it will be because she hasn’t heard what she believes she needs to in the upcoming debates, and/or doesn’t trust Perry to bear the standard.

Read the whole thing, because Dan has put his finger directly on something I had previously remarked in passing: Palin has specified September as her deadline for making a decision, and there are three debates in September — Wednesday at the Reagan Library in California, Sept. 12 in Tampa and Sept. 22 in Orlando. If Perry underperforms in those debates, Palin may see the front-runner’s weakness as an invitation to enter the race.

Did I say “weakness”? This morning at breakfast with Da Tech Guy, I picked up the Boston Herald and saw this Associated Press article:

MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) — He may have been 2,000 miles from the border, but Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry’s immigration record in Texas quickly became the focus in New Hampshire Saturday afternoon.
Speaking to hundreds of Granite State voters at a private reception, the Texas governor was asked whether he supported a fence along the Mexican border.
“No, I don’t support a fence on the border,” he said, while referring to the long border in Texas alone. “The fact is, it’s 1,200 miles from Brownsville to El Paso. Two things: How long you think it would take to build that? And then if you build a 30-foot wall from El Paso to Brownsville, the 35-foot ladder business gets real good.”
Instead, Perry said he supported “strategic fencing” and National Guard troops to prevent illegal immigration and violence from Mexican drug cartels.

Make of that what you will. But according to the article, some Tea Party activists in New Hampshire didn’t like Perry’s answer.

By the time you read this, Da Tech Guy and I will be in New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney’s appearance at a 6 p.m. Tea Party Express rally in Concord is expected to draw a big crowd, including many angry Tea Party protesters.


Fear and Loathing at Union Station

UNION STATION, Washington, D.C.
My son-in-law dropped me off here about 1 a.m. My train leaves at 3:15 a.m.  So I’ve got a few minutes to do a quick blog post before I board the train and head off to Worcester and thence to New Hampshire.

We’re trying to get Dan Collins of Piece of Work in Progress, who lives in Vermont, to come over to Manchester, N.H., for Monday’s Tea Party Express Rally with Sarah Palin. Go hit Dan’s tip jar.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, Sarah Palin met Friday with a couple hundred supporters at a restaurant in a Des Moines suburb, and managed to make news:

As former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin walked in the front door of The Machine Shed restaurant in Urbandale, Iowa, this evening, a reporter asked Palin what she thought about the current field of GOP presidential candidates.
“Happy with the field of candidates. I always think that there’s room for more, though, because spirited debate and more competition will allow an even better discourse and a more rigorous discourse that the public deserves,” Palin said.

So, yeah, she’s not ruling anything out. Just keepin’ everybody on their toes. You betcha.

This station is spooky in the wee hours. Dark and quiet. Here’s video:

All aboard! Time to go. Please hit the tip jar.

New Hampshire, Here I Come!

The AmTrak ticket from Union Station in D.C. to Worcester, Mass., was $182. My son-in-law is coming to pick me up in a few minutes to take me to the station. Pete Da Tech Guy will pick me up Saturday afternoon in Worcester.

Pete and I will cover Mitt Romney’s Sunday appearance at a Tea Party Express rally in Concord, N.H., an event that has sparked controversy:

FreedomWorks, which had been participating in the Tea Party Express’s tour and had helped turn out activists at rallies during prior stops, decided it could no longer be affiliated with the tour, said Brendan Steinhauser, a lead organizer for FreedomWorks.
Instead, it began working with local New Hampshire tea party groups to organize a counter rally set for about the same time in the same park in Concord as Romney’s speech.
“We have to defend our brand against poseurs,” Steinhauser said.

What fun that should be, huh? And then Monday, there is a rally in Manchester, N.H., with Sarah Palin, fresh off the Saturday Tea Party Rally in Iowa where all the experts sure she’s not — repeat, not — going to announce her presidential candidacy. Will Palin do what the experts expect her to do Saturday? Well, first time for everything, I guess. But if she does announce in Iowa, we’ll be ready to cover her first campaign trip to New Hampshire. Speaking of women and controversy . . .

Mrs. Other McCain is kinda angry at me. You see, when I blogged Wednesday morning about my plans for a New Hampshire trip, I meant to tell her about. But then stuff kept happening on the blogosphere, and I got busy and forgot to mention it until this evening, after I’d already bought my train ticket.

Contributions to the “Help Make Mrs. Other McCain Happy” Fund would be deeply appreciated. She’s a wonderful wife, who has to put up with an awful lot. Now it’s time to pack up and get rolling — wish me luck!

UPDATE: Here’s video of me explaining to my wife: