Remember what I told you in mid-September? “Kamala Is Underperforming” was the headline, at a time when the newly-minted Democratic presidential nominee was still riding her post-convention “bounce.” A careful comparison of Harris’s poll numbers to Joe Biden’s numbers in 2020 and Hillary Clinton’s numbers in 2016 showed that she was weaker against Trump than either Joe or Hillary.
Democratic strategist Anthony Coley, who served in the Biden administration, acknowledged the trepidation, pointing to the stagnant poll numbers in the weeks following the Democratic National Convention, when Democrats were making comparisons between Harris’s campaign and former President Obama’s run in 2008.
“Now that the sugar high is gone, people have realized what Kamala Harris has said from the start, which is that she is the underdog,” Coley said. “This is going to be a fight. … These numbers are just so stubborn.”
What he means by those “stubborn” numbers is that Kamala got to a certain level in the polls, and can’t get past it. She’s reached her ceiling, and it’s not high enough to give Democrats confidence that she can win. Trump’s numbers are solid — his voters aren’t going anywhere, and the number of “undecided” voters is very small. And then you start looking at polls for the battleground states and . . . Uh, oh. Internal polling by Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s campaign shows Harris losing by three points to Trump there, and Democrats are also starting to worry about Michigan. If both of those Midwest “blue wall” states are shaky for Harris, we could be looking at 300+ Electoral College votes for Trump. And the signs of trouble multiply from there.
It’s a simple arithmetic problem: How does she get to 270 Electoral College voters if, for example, Trump wins Pennsylvania. Do the math and you realize that, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, that’s the whole ballgame — Wisconsin and Michigan become irrelevant. As matters stand now, Georgia looks pretty solid for Trump, Harris has no better than a 50-50 chance in Pennsylvania, and whatever’s going on in North Carolina, it’s a state that Trump won twice, so that flipping it to Harris would appear to be a rather desperate hope.
What, therefore, are we to make of this headline from NBC News? “Harris and Democratic allies descend on Arizona in all-hands push before early voting.” The obvious inference is that Team Harris is worried enough about some other state (or combination of states) that they find it necessary to expend resources trying to get 11 Electoral College votes from Arizona, a state where practically every poll shows Trump leading. If you are a Democrat worried about Kamala’s chances, this ought to be a flashing red light, the trigger that turns your headache into a full-blown migraine. Look, if CNN’s aggregation of public polls has Harris +1 in Pennsylvania, that almost certainly means Trump is winning Pennsylvania, and perhaps by as much as 4 or 5 points.
Consider the long-time friendship between Kamala Harris and billionaire donor Laurene Powell Jobs, the widow of Steve Jobs. The New York Times described the women as being so close that they’ve gone on vacation together and consider each other family. Powell Jobs sat in Harris’ exclusive friends and family suite at the DNC last month. She was also instrumental in getting Biden to step down to clear the way for Harris; one of her top aides circulated a polling memo to other key influential donors that allegedly showed Biden’s inability to win.
It was another example of a megadonor overcoming the will of the people — and making things worse for voters. Now that the Kool-Aid from the DNC is wearing off, people are waking up to the realities of an untested candidate. Harris is barely beating Biden in key swing state polls, dodges questions from the press, and continually gaffes answers on significant policy issues. She can barely answer basic questions about her plans for regular people in friendly encounters with people like Oprah. This is what happens when a candidate is anointed by donors and not selected by voters.
Exactly. Harris was never as popular as Biden. She flopped in the 2020 primaries, exiting the race in 2019 before a single vote was cast. If Biden had announced in 2019 that he would not seek a second term, that would have allowed Democrats to choose their candidate in an open primary, and how likely is it that Harris would have won such a primary against, e.g., Gavin Newsome, Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore, et al.? What happened instead was that Biden decided to run again, despite his increasingly obvious cognitive impairment and then, after his debate meltdown in June, was forced off the ticket, with Harris anointed as the nominee.
Kamala didn’t win the nomination, it was handed to her, gift-wrapped on a silver platter, and many voters who might not be eager to see another Trump presidency are neverthless reluctant to vote for this ill-qualified woman who reminds us that “DEI” stands for Didn’t Earn It. With 26 days until November 5, the Democrats have nobody but themselves to blame for this unforced error. The party’s billionaire donors got what they paid for, but voters won’t endorse this corrupt bargain.
Say hello to Joseph Nathan Ryan, “a Springfield, Va., resident who lived with his grandmother and a small dog,” according to the Washington Post, until one day in February 2023, when he was shot to death as “part of an elaborate ruse that lured a man interested in sexual fetishes” to the home of a married couple “in a well-to-do suburb of the nation’s capital.”
My brother Kirby told me about this story, and after doing some research, I remarked to him what I’ve often said before: “There’s a reason why some things are called ‘fantasies,’ because if you try to do them in real life, bad things happen.” Certainly, Joseph Ryan would agree, were he still alive to discuss the subject. What brought Ryan to the home in Herndon on the day of his death was a website called “FetLife,” catering to the devotees of bizarre sexual fetishes, where Ryan’s account handle was “tacosupreme7000.” He had been communicating with an account with the handle “Annastasia9.” The photo associated with the “Annastasia9” account was of a 37-year-old woman.
Christine Banfield was a pediatric ICU nurse, the mother of a 4-year-old, but according to prosecutors, she was not involved in the kinky BDSM practices that “Annastasia9” had been discussing on FetLife with Joseph Ryan. In fact, it is alleged, she apparently had no idea that her photo was being used on this site, because “the elaborate ruse” was apparently a setup hatched by her husband, Brendan Banfield, and the couple’s 22-year-old Brazilian au pair, Juliana Peres Magalhães.
It took investigators a long time to get enough evidence to bring charges, first against Magalhães, in April, and then last month against Brendan Banfield. Both are charged with the death of Ryan, but so far not with the death of Christine Banfield who, it seems, was stabbed by Ryan, who apparently came to the Banfield home with the idea that “Annastasia9” wanted to be tortured with a knife. Sounds crazy, right? The Washington Post calls it “a case that has become an internet sensation, prompting an episode on ‘Crime Stories With Nancy Grace,’ a social following on TikTok and fervid coverage in Brazilian media outlets.”
Frankly, it’s got enough dramatic twists and turns it could be a Netflix series, and here’s just a little ironic plot twist:
In a Facebook post that included a link to her online petition protesting the COVID-era suspension of foreign travel visas, Christine Banfield wrote: “Our au pair has become a part of our family and we share our love of America with her and she shares her Brazilian culture with us.”
Yeah, there was lots of cultural sharing between Christine’s husband and their au pair, which affair prosecutors allege was the motive for the “elaborate ruse” that got both Christine and Joseph Ryan killed. As I understand it, the prosecution’s theory is that Brendan Banfield and Magalhães had been sexually involved for some months prior to that deadly day in February 2023. Banfield set up this FetLife account “Annastasia9,” which lured Ryan to the Banfield home with the idea of acting out some kind of fantasy involving sex at knifepoint. So then Brendan Banfield and Magalhães claim to have discovered this knife-wielding “intruder” in the Banfield home, fatally stabbing Christine. Ryan is then shot to death, supposedly in self-defense, thereby eliminating the only witness who can explain what’s happening. If they got away with it, Brendan Banfield and Magalhães would then carry on their romance, but despite the deviousness of this scheme, somehow prosecutors were able to figure it out, and so a trial is now scheduled for November.
Among the many possible lessons that might be learned from this bizarre case, arguably the most crucial is this: You have no idea who is really behind that sexy-looking online profile you might encounter in your Internet browsing. It is very easy to create fake personas on the Internet — or so I have been told by the former deputy Minister of the Interior of Nigeria, who sent me an email inviting me to get rich with his assistance.
If something seems too good to be true, it’s probably neither good nor true. Scammers are everywhere, but when Joseph Ryan went pursuing his fantasies on FetLife, he apparently had no doubt that “Annastasia9” was who she said she was. A lack of skepticism can get you killed, and while most murders perpetrated through such online impersonation schemes are not as luridly fascinating as the plot that killed Joseph Ryan, it certainly illustrates the point I made to my brother: “There’s a reason why some things are called ‘fantasies,’ because if you try to do them in real life, bad things happen.” Be careful out there, y’all.
Somewhere in one of my picture folders I have a photo of a coffee-drinking lass on a bed wearing a T-shirt* with the sentence “Yes, But First, Coffee”. Until I find it again, this pic from Rule5Texan on X will do quite nicely.
Ceterum autem censeo Silicon Valley et Hamas delendam sunt.
Today is my 65th birthday — old enough to qualify for Social Security, but still working. It’s been four days since I updated the blog, but my day job kind of interfered with the blogging schedule this week. Also, I keep doing that thing where I begin an article, write hundreds or even thousands of words, and then abandon the draft because some news event interrupts. Do not accuse me of early-onset Alzheimer’s — I’ve always been somewhat scatter-breained this way, before they had such terms as “ADD” or “multi-tasking” to describe my modus operandi.
My greatest joy in journalism was the years I spent, from 2008 to 2012, in a blur of frenetic travel, doing shoe-leather reporting on the campaign trail. Being on the scene, reporting what I saw with my own eyes and heard with my own ears, provided infinitely more satisfaction than the mere quote-and-comment stuff of blogging. But the rigors of the campaign trail take their toll — it’s a young man’s game, and I was something of a senior citizen in the traveling press corps even when I was not yet 50. Nowadays, it seems, the business of covering campaigns is done mainly by kids fresh out of college, no doubt as a cost-saving measure by financially strapped media organizations.
Sometimes it’s hard to believe it’s been so long ago that I was careening around upstate New York covering the Doug Hoffman campaign, furiously ratting the tip jar to pay for my gas and the rental car (that got ambushed by a deer one foggy night). That grassroots populist Tea Party campaign against the GOP Establishment (remember Dede Scozzafava?) was, as those of us who witnessed it predicted at the time, a template for the 2010 midterms, when Republicans recaptured the House in a historic landslide (see “The Republican Mandate,” Nov. 25, 2010). And, when you look at it in retrospect, one can trace a direct path from the populism of the Tea Party movement to the campaign that put Donald Trump in the White House in 2016 and which now, less than a month before Election Day, bids fair to return Trump to the White House again.
Excuse the nostalgic reverie, but you get to be this old and find that most of what you have to offer the younger generation is (a) fabulous tales of Ye Olden Days, and (b) advice that they will, of course, ignore.
Portrait of the Author as an Old Man
However frustrating it is to get old, however, it is still preferable to the alternative. Merely being alive can be considered an achievement, at this point and, like Carl Spackler said after telling his story about the Dalai Lama: “So I got that goin’ for me, which is nice.”
Speaking of old guys, it’s a great misfortune that my old blog buddy John Hoge died last year. As you know, Hoge was an alumnus of Vanderbilt University and yesterday, the Commodores upset the Alabama Crimson Tide, the first time in 40 years that Vandy beat ’Bama, and the first time they had ever beat a team ranked No. 1 in the country. Why did this tragedy strike the Tide, which was riding high after knocking off Georgia a week earlier? My brother Kirby could preach you a sermon about what’s wrong with Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe, but you probably wouldn’t want to hear that sermon. However, having received total consciousness (thank you, Dalai Lama), I view this world-historic event — Vandy beating Alabama — as a timely omen of November 5.
Maybe it’s just me who sees it this way, but if lowly Vanderbilt can triumph over the top-ranked team in the country, isn’t it possible that Donald Trump can achieve something no president has done since Grover Cleveland, winning the presidency in two non-consecutive terms?
What did I gain from that experience? Well, not total consciousness (again, thank you Dalai Lama), but merely walking across Harvard Yard has a mystical way of imparting the spirit of elite enlightenment, and from that experience I obtained a crucial esoteric insight that, to celebrate the occasion of my 65th birthday, I will now share with readers, i.e., the Five Most Important Words in the English Language are:
