Ellen Carmichael Out, J.D. Gordon In as Cain Campaign Communications Chief

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UPDATE (Oct. 6): “Storm Center: J.D. Gordon Takes Charge as Herman Cain Communications Director”

** PREVIOUSLY (6:36 p.m. ET, Oct. 1) **

I knew this last night but was sworn to secrecy, as it wasn’t supposed to be announced until Monday: Ellen Carmichael is leaving Herman Cain’s campaign as communications director. She will be replaced by a former Defense Department public affairs officer, J.D. Gordon.

CNN got the scoop today, because I don’t burn my sources. I’d rather get scooped than betray a confidence.

UPDATE: Shannon Travis of CNN is a friend of Ellen’s, as are a couple of other reporters who, like me, must be kicking themselves for not reporting the story yesterday when they had the chance. Travis’s story has most of what Ellen was willing to tell me — as one friend to another — last night. But the part about J.D. Gordon (and some other relevant info) I’ll have to get in the next update.

UPDATE II: First things first, according to the Cain campaign’s second-quarter FEC report, Ellen Carmichael was paid $22,628.49 for the three months ending June 30. Do the math, and that’s about $90,000 a year. (UPDATE: This estimate is wrong; see third update below.) It’s damn good money for someone just out of college and (not to put too fine a point on it) more than I’ve ever earned in any of my 25 years as a journalist. However . . .

The campaign hired on New Media director Michael Johnson, who was paid $21,674.70 during the second quarter — nearly equal to what they paid Carmichael, who has worked for Cain nearly a year. You can go down the list of other Cain staff salaries and ask yourself whether the Director of Communications was paid what such an important job title would suggest, relative to other members of the staff.

This is not to say that Carmichael quit over money, however. She didn’t even mention that in her conversation with me. I just happened to notice it today while I was reporting on Cain’s third-quarter fundraising.

However, the news that the campaign had hired Gordon to be Carmichael’s boss — dude, think about that. And I’m guessing Gordon’s salary will be more than $90,000 a year. IYKWIMAITYD.

UPDATE III: I’m told that some people are trying to claim Ellen was fired or “let go,” which is false. And I’m also told that my estimate of Carmichael’s salary is wrong. The figure reported on the second-quarter FEC report was actually retroactive until January, so that her annualized salary was closer to $45,000.

Having first met Herman Cain when I interviewed him in 2007, and being one of the first to cover his campaign in December, I know a lot more about what’s gone on with the “Cain Train” than I can report. Because (a) I don’t burn my sources, and (b) there’s a much greater chance of Herman Cain becoming president than most pundits and “experts” are able to see or willing to admit.

It’s important to say that Ellen Carmichael is leaving the Cain campaign on amicable terms and is still an admirer of Herman Cain. This was also true, however, of several people in Iowa to whom I spoke when I spent the entire Fourth of July weekend getting the backstory on a round of staff resignations in late June:

Charlie Gruschow called Tuesday, eager to clarify the terms of his departure from the staff of Herman Cain’s Republican presidential campaign in Iowa. “I have tremendous respect for Herman Cain,” said Gruschow, founder of the Des Moines Tea Party and one of the earliest backers of the Atlanta businessman’s effort in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. Gruschow re-affirmed his support for Cain’s candidacy but resigned his staff position because, as he says he told the campaign’s chief of staff Mark Block in a meeting last week, “my heart’s not in this anymore.”
By “this,” Gruschow meant the day-to-day business of campaign operations, which have been hampered in Iowa by conflicts involving some former Cain staffers. . . .

And who was quoted in that story?

Cain’s spokeswoman Ellen Carmichael called the personnel changes “growing pains” in a campaign that went from its official launch May 21 to a second-quarter fundraising total of nearly $2.5 million (and third place in the Des Moines Register poll) in less than two months.

You can read the whole thing. When she gave me the “growing pains” line, I told her, “Don’t spin me, Ellen,” but she was swearing on a stack of Bibles that this was just a minor speed-bump on the road to victory. And she assures me now that she still has the highest regard for Herman Cain, and the fondest hopes for the campaign’s future success, but felt that it was time for her to pursue other opportunities.

I’ll be back to deal with this story in a little bit, but I’ve got to go get some food right now, because the Alabama game comes on in about a half-hour. Roll Tide!

UPDATE IV: Dan Collins at The Conservatory:

My guess is that as Cain has become a top tier candidate, the pressure on him to get more experienced campaigners has grown. I imagine that at certain points this has meant that Ellen (whom I know only from Twitter) has gotten her toes stepped on, and got them stepped on one times too many. There’s also been the usual backbiting through the usual channels, with people saying that Romney’s campaign is better than he is, Perry’s is as good as he is, and Cain’s is worse than he is. I imagine that kind of back-channel criticism wore her down, too.

Which is a pretty damned good guess, really. This kind of stuff is routine in political campaigns, and the reason you don’t see staff resignations from the Romney campaign is (a) his people have been with him for years, and (b) Romney’s got more money than God, so if somebody gets shoved aside, they’re kept on the payroll anyway.

Ali Akbar at Tea Party Brew has an interesting story, making reference to “underlying tensions.” True enough, but has there ever been a presidential campaign that didn’t have “underlying tensions”? BTW, it was a phone call from Ali that informed me that CNN had broken the story that I’d been sitting on for about 18 hours.

Don Surber points out Gordon’s background:

Gordon is a big snag for Team Cain as he has been a contributing columnist and commentator to Fox News, The Washington Times, Human Events and Capital Insider. Since leaving the Pentagon, Gordon has been a Senior Fellow and Communications Consultant to several Washington-DC based think tanks, including Atlas Economic Research Foundation, Americas Forum, Atlantic Bridge, Center for Security Policy and the Liberty & Freedom Foundation.

Surber throws a couple of shots at Ellen, which is rather unfair. She joined Team Cain early last fall when the candidate was “Herman Who?” She leaves with the candidate now ranked third and poised the challenge the front-runners. Ain’t no shame in her game.

Speaking of the game: Florida scored first to take a 7-0 lead over Alabama. But the Tide just got a first down at the Florida 14. Roll Tide!

UPDATE V: The Examiner‘s Jonathan Gerhke tries to suggest that the Cain campaign is “fractured,” which is no more true today than it was a month ago or three months ago. Go back to something Cain told me in December: “”We are going to run a bottoms-up, outside-the-box campaign.”

The outside-the-box quality of the Cain campaign has manifested itself, at times, as missed opportunities due to inexperienced staff. In August, David Drucker of National Journal wrote an article about Cain’s staff that ended with a quote from an anonymous GOP operative: “Why run a campaign with amateurs?”

Good point, but then when Cain brings a pro like Gordon, this is portrayed as bad news for Cain. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

But let me remind you of something: The experts counted Cain out before he ever started. When he won the South Carolina debate, the experts said it was a fluke. After he placed fourth at Ames, the experts figured he was doomed. And as recently as Sept. 21, none of the experts gave Cain a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the Florida straw poll.

The experts keep saying Cain can’t win and yet, somehow, he keeps proving them wrong. Kind of a pattern there.

Trent Richardson just scored a TD. Bama 10, Florida 10. Roll Tide!

UPDATE VI: Stuff that pisses me off: At 6:23 p.m. ET, I was the first to report that J.D. Gordon would replace Carmichael.

Two hours later — about 8:30 ET — Fox News mentioned Gordon’s hiring at the end of their story. And then when UPI picks it up: “J.D. Gordon will take over as campaign spokesman, Fox News reported.”

See? No respect. Twenty-five years in the business it took me to become the Rodney Dangerfield of American political journalists.

Now in the 2nd quarter, it’s Alabama 24, Florida 10. Roll Tide!

UPDATE VII: University of Alabama alumnus Alex Pappas reports:

Carmichael, a Louisiana native who has a reputation for being well-liked by members of the press, began working for Cain in April of 2010. She also worked for his company, T.H.E. New Voice, and Cain’s exploratory committee before he jumped into the race.
In an email, J.D. Gordon, a foreign policy adviser to Cain who is also now Cain’s chief campaign spokesman, said “Carmichael decided to pursue other opportunities” and that they “appreciate her service to the campaign.”

That Carmichael was “well-liked by members of the press” is true, and the biggest challenge for Gordon will be building relationships with political reporters, none of whom know him from his Pentagon work. Gordon’s reputation in military and foreign policy circles, however, should prove to be a valuable asset for Cain.

Herman Cain Rhymes With Hurricane: Fund-Raising Surges in Third Quarter

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The buzz coming from the Herman Cain campaign is that they will be the only presidential campaign — including Obama and GOP front-runner Mitt Romney — whose third-quarter fund-raising numbers are better than their second-quarter numbers. (A quarter-to-quarter comparison is not possible for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who did not launch his campaign until midway through the third quarter.)

Cain raised slightly more than $2 million in the second quarter, according to official FEC reports, and the Atlanta businessman’s campaign had been heading toward a disappointing third-quarter result until experiencing a powerful surge in late September. Cain’s strong performance in debates Sept. 12 in Tampa and Sept. 22 in Orlando, followed by his shocking upset win in the Sept. 24 Florida GOP straw poll, ignited a massive influx of online contributions.

Most of Cain’s third-quarter total will be from small donors (less than $200), and more than $1 million of the quarterly total will have been raised in the last 10 days of September. Traffic to Cain’s Web page at times has been so heavy that several supporters have left comments on the candidate’s Facebook page in recent days complaining that they can’t get through to make online donations. While the campaign was coping with the phenomenal surge, a fund-raising e-mail sent Friday to Cain’s supporters boasted of the candidate’s success in attracting small donors.

“Other candidates are raising thousands of dollars from a few people. Herman Cain is raising a few dollars from thousands of people,” consultant Brad Marston wrote in the e-mail (full text below) sent shortly before last night’s midnight deadline for the second-quarter FEC report.

Cain’s appearance late Friday on “The Tonight Show” with Jay Leno will likely help carry over his third-quarter momentum into October. The next major event for in the see-saw GOP campaign is an Oct. 18 debate in Las Vegas, sponsored by the Western Republican Leadership Conference and televised on CNN.

* * * * * * *

TEXT OF CAIN FUND-RAISING E-MAIL

Date: Fri, Sep 30, 2011 at 6:14 PM
Subject: Herman Cain – What a week we’re having!
September 30, 2011
Dear [NAME] —
What a week we are having! After Mr. Cain’s great performance at the Fox News Debate, his impressive win at the Florida P5 Straw Poll and news reports showing he is clearly in the top tier of candidates, he is having his best fundraising week ever!
But we’re not done yet! The 3rd Quarter fundraising deadline is only hours away!
President Obama, Mitt Romney and other candidates are playing the expectations game, saying they will raise less money than last quarter. Herman Cain doesn’t play games. He works for and expects success!
This is the final Five Dollar Friday for the quarter. Please join me in donating at least $5 to Herman Cain today!
Other candidates are raising thousands of dollars from a few people. Herman Cain is raising a few dollars from thousands of people who like you, support his Common Sense Solutions! In fact, we are within 1500 donations of having MORE donors than last quarter and quite possibly EXCEEDING our past fundraising totals!
If you have donated recently or simply can’t afford another donation in these challenging economic times, please consider forwarding this email to your friends and family.
Thank you.

Brad Marston
Partner
FourTier Strategies, LLC

http://arealleader.hermancain.com/
PS. Donations must be received by midnight tonight EDT to count towards Herman Cain’s 3rd Quarter fundraising totals. Please donate now!

RECENTLY:


Fear And Smitty In Las Vegas

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by Smitty

[Updated to emphasize future tense.]

The Western Republican Leadership Conference will be hosting, with CNN, a debate at the Sands Expo on 18 October. That’s a little over two weeks away.

Now this blog may be Eastern, highly critical of Republicans, and think that leadership is just one of them book learnin’ concepts you talk about in lieu of delivering a jolly flogging to the foe, but there is only one correct response to the mention of an excuse for a Vegas trip:

This debate occurs while I have a bit of time, and the wife hasn’t spent all of the deployment savings on… wherever it goes. Whether we can do anything about Stacy’s roulette problem remains to be seen:
We’re trying to explain to Stacy that he is not the President, and these numbers on the felt do not represent green energy companies, but, once a Democrat, always a Democrat, they say.

Stacy is burning the cel phone tower down calling all of our left coast chums. He might be staying for several days, breaking news at the conference in his inimitable fashion. Most likely my time will be curtailed to two days, as the World’s Youngest Blogger and Mrs. The Other Smitty have me on a short leash.

Update: use of Smitty in the title means that I should show up somewhere in the post:

The Machismo burrito bar is really in Norfolk, VA, but this is a recent mug.

Consider hitting the freaking tip jar: frogskins make the Gonzo flow!

Santorum Returns to Iowa

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Thanks to Florida (“the Evil State”) we may be  just three months from the Iowa caucuses, and Rick Santorum is going back to the Hawkeye State this weekend for a three-day campaign swing that includes this:

Sunday, October 2:
1:00pm CT: Senator Santorum will take part in a 1870s style baseball game at Living History Farms in Urbandale, IA. Prior to the game, Senator Santorum will visit the small church erected on the site in commemoration of where Pope John Paul II preached to Iowans during his 1979 visit.

Ah, the Pope — say, does anybody know what percent of Iowa GOP caucus-goers are Catholic? Because I kinda think that might matter.

What Florida Hath Wrought: Will Christmas Be in Iowa or New Hampshire?

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Geographers have long noted that the Florida peninsula hangs off the East Coast of the United States like a small, limp penis. The metaphorical significance was made manifest Friday morning when what I’ve come to regard as “The Evil State” announced that it was moving its primary to Jan. 31, prompting a memorable reaction from Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn:

“The arrogance shown by Florida’s elected leadership is disappointing, but not surprising. Equally troubling is to see this petulant behavior rewarded with our national convention. The consequences of Florida’s intransigence must be swift and severe, including the refusal by the RNC to credential or seat any member of Florida’s presidential primary date commission at the 2012 RNC convention in Tampa.
“Regarding the timing of the First in the Nation Iowa Caucuses, Iowa will remain first. Consistent with tradition, the final Iowa Caucus date will be announced once New Hampshire sets the date of its First in the Nation Primary.”

As I said in my Friday American Spectator column, the RNC-approved schedule — with the Iowa caucuses Feb. 6 — was reasonable and humane. What Florida has done is cruel and insane. Manchester (N.H.) Union Leader columnist John DiStaso has reaction from the Granite State:

The Republican National Committee this afternoon made clear that Republican parties in any state, including New Hampshire, that violate the national party’s primary/caucus calendar by moving their primaries or caucuses earlier than the schedule set out in an RNC rule will lose half its delegates to the national convention next summer.
A senior RNC official said there will be “no discretion, no waivers. Those penalties are in place in our rules. They were enforced in 2008 and they will be enforced in 2012.”
A Florida commission today voted to jump up its primary to Jan. 31 in violation of the RNC rule. It means that New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada will also violate the rule and move their events into January, and possibly, in New Hampshire’s case, into December of this year . . .
[New Hampshire’s Republican National Committeeman Steve] Duprey, a member of the RNC rules committee who was among those who worked since 2008 on the new rule, said of Florida, “I thought they’d be smarter than this.
“This (Florida jump to January) effectively precludes Sarah Palin and anyone else from getting into the race, and it’s unfortunate for the Republican Party and for democracy. It also makes it much more daunting for any candidate who doesn’t have huge cash reserves to be able to compete and capitalize on an early state win.”
Duprey predicted the New Hampshire Primary will probably be held “right after the first of the year again, and could be even earlier than that,” meaning perhaps even in December.

Of course, if New Hampshire moves to December, Iowa’s law will require them to move to December, too. And all of this — all of it — is the fault of the Florida Republican Party leadership. The Hill notes:

The front-loading of the calendar also means presidential candidates will likely have to campaign through Christmas and New Year’s Day.

Isn’t that sweet? “The Florida Republicans Who Stole Christmas”!

By the way: Don’t believe a word those Florida Grinches say about their reasons for doing this. They’re lying through their teeth if they say this has anything to do with trying to make Florida votes count for more in the primary process. What they are doing — and everybody knows this is the real reason — is trying to force an early end to the fight for the GOP nomination.

So far the only candidate in the field who’s said a word about this crooked Florida deal is Rick Santorum. Everybody knows that Florida’s state House Speaker Dean Cannon has endorsed Rick Perry, and many people suspect Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos is a Mitt Romney supporter. By front-loading the primaries, Florida now is in effect trying to stop Herman Cain (or anyone else but Perry or Romney) from having a fair chance to compete with the big-money front-runners.

The Underground Conservative predicts “a front-loaded presidential primary system guaranteed to pick an establishment GOP candidate. Mitt Romney = John McCain 2.0,” and adds:

That’s the end result: the Cocktail Party GOP showing the Tea Party who’s boss.

You may have noticed that the sudden announcement of Florida’s Jan. 31 date swiftly followed Cain’s upset win in the Florida straw poll — a result that had caused some people to urge New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to get in. But there won’t be time now for Christie to organize a campaign in time to compete in Iowa or New Hamphire.

Bonus for the old-boy Establishment? By making this move, the Florida GOP makes it all but certain that Sarah Palin can’t run in 2012.

What would really shake things up — and it would be just like her — is if Palin decided to pay back the Establishment by messing up their little insider game and endorsing Herman Cain.

UPDATE: This is incredible! In a Facebook message to “Sunshine State Sarah,” Speaker Cannon admits what the Florida GOP is doing:

I’ll describe what happened in 2008 as the best proof that the threats of calamity in [Florida RNC member Paul] Paul’s letter are unfounded. In 2008, Iowa went Jan 3, NH went Jan 8, MI on Jan 15, NV and SC on Jan19, Florida went Jan 29, and FL had huge, arguably decisive influence. Twenty six states then held their primaries the next week on Feb 5–the “super Tuesday”–and it was over.

That is to say, Cannon and the Florida GOP are trying to guarantee a repeat of the preposterously early decision in 2008! And this disaster (which gave the nomination to John McCain) Cannon cites as proof that a front-loaded primary calendar in 2012 won’t produce a “calamity”!

Read the rest of Sarah’s post. Like many Floridians, Sarah doesn’t seem to understand how evil this Crist/Greer-style trick really is. Go back to the story I wrote on Election Night 2008:

Perhaps the most important statistic for conservatives to keep in mind today — as pundits pore over and pour out exit-poll data to tell us What It Means — is this: 53 percent of Republican primary voters did not vote for John McCain.

And how did that happen? Florida Republicans led by the corrupt Jim Greer moved up their primary, forcing the front-loaded 2008 calendar described by Cannon. Then Florida’s RINO Gov. Charlie Crist (after promising to endorse Rudy Giuliani) gave his endorsement to John McCain. Just as Cannon said, “Florida went Jan 29, and FL had huge, arguably decisive influence” — McCain won with 36% to Romney’s 31%, and then Super Tuesday sealed the deal.

Yet the Florida GOP’s attempt to repeat that rigged process — which produced a Republican nominee who didn’t get a majority of Republican votes — is claimed by Cannon as proof that 2012 won’t be a “calamity”!

Once Tea Party activists figure out what the Florida GOP bosses are up to, I guarantee you there will be hell to pay.

PREVIOUSLY:

Award-Winning Reagan

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Our 8-year-old daughter Reagan began public school this year as a third-grader, having previously been home-schooled or attended Christian school. Less than a month into the school year, she won the Respectful Student Award which I’m told (by our 22-year-old daughter, now a school teacher herself) is a very impressive achievement.


Parents were invited to the special lunch where the winners of the award sat at the special “Golden Table.” As you can see, Reagan inherited her father’s good looks. Or perhaps . . .

Yeah, fortunately Reagan takes after her beautiful mother. But I still think I deserve some credit.

Well, maybe not credit. Cash is generally preferred, although PayPal accepts Visa and other major credit cards. IYKWIMAITYD.

Joe Biden Sends Me E-Mail

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As noted yesterday, the fund-raising e-mails from Obama’s re-election campaign are becoming increasingly desperate:

Robert —

I need to ask you one last thing before tonight’s midnight deadline:
If you know you’re going to donate to this campaign eventually, what’s stopping you from doing it right now?
If you’re going to be a part of history in 2012, it’s time to get off the sidelines.
So, before midnight, will you chip in what you can and say you’re in?
This has never been about Barack and me.
We’re just two guys. It’s folks like you out there who will decide this election.
And what you’re capable of is incredible — if you decide to do it.

Thank you,
Joe

P.S. — That deadline also applies to the dinner Barack is having with four supporters. Donate today and you’ll be automatically entered for the chance to be there.

Anyone who signed up for Obama’s e-mail list in 2008 — which I did in an effort to obtain campaign news — has been bombarded by fund-raising e-mails for the past 10 days. Team Obama is already making excuses and seeking to lower expectations.