BOSTON — Just got back from Sean Bielat headquarters, where one volunteer said she’s starting to sense a “Scott Brown feeling” about the campaign against Barney Frank. Logged onto my e-mail and saw a tip to a Politico article about a race on the other side of the country:
Add Rep. Raul Grijalva to the growing list of Democratic worries this election season.
Party operatives say there’s increasing concern that the Arizona Democrat’s reelection bid could turn into a “sleeper” race for Republicans after Grijalva — responding to enactment of a tough new immigration law — called for an economic boycott of his own state amid a housing crisis and record unemployment.
Four Democratic sources from different parts of the country said that there is new attention to a race that was long considered in the bag.
And a recent poll, obtained by POLITICO, found that Grijalva and Republican challenger Ruth McClung, a real-life rocket scientist, were in a dead heat, even though Washington prognosticators have declared the deep-blue seat safely Democratic.
As they work to buttress their majority against a coming Republican storm, Democrats can ill afford to spend time or resources defending incumbents in seats where they should have a clear advantage. But the Grijalva seat potentially being in play is a sign of the increasingly expanding Republican playing field for the midterm elections. . . .
Read the whole thing. Folks, I cannot begin to explain how huge this is. The headline might as well be, In hoc signo vinces.
A couple weeks ago, when I first blogged about Ruth McClung’s campaign in AZ-7, it was basically as favor to an Arizona friend. Here was an excellent candidate running a g0od grassroots campaign and, as always, I love a scrappy underdog. Grijalva’s stupidity in calling for a boycott of his own state was so remarkable as to deserve another mention.
There was a chance for an against-the-odds upset but, honestly, I never expected to see a poll three weeks before Election Day showing a dead heat in AZ-7. Look at the data: Grijalva’s negatives are 47% against a positive of 39%, while Grijalva’s “deserves re-election” number is a mere 36% against 50% for “give new person a chance.” This is an incumbent in serious trouble.
To have these kind of results, when McClung reported a mere $16,000 cash on hand in early August — incredible!
Go give Ruth McClung $20 — do it now — but then come back while I tell you what this one poll, in one deep-blue district, means for the larger picture Nov. 2. Continue reading HOLY COW! Republican AZ-7 Challenger McClung Now in ‘Dead Heat’ with Grijalva →
