PA-12: Burns 48%, Critz 47%

Absolute dead heat in the final pre-election poll by the Democrat-run firm Public Policy Polling. You absolutely couldn’t hope for better news on the verge of Tuesday’s special election in Jack Murtha’s old district. Your money quote:

[T]hose planning to vote on Tuesday report having voted for John McCain by 5 points in 2008, compared to his actual 1 point victory in the district. And among voters who say they’re ‘very excited’ to vote in this election, Burns has a 60-38 lead.

I’ll be back to update in a little bit. However, I must not end without reminding you of this quote from February 2009:

If we are doomed to destruction, as least let it be said that we died fighting. But those who never fight, never win.

In a word . . .

WOLVERINES!

UPDATE: John McCormack at the Weekly Standard points out:

[O]ne advantage for Critz: Democratic turnout in the western Pennsylvania district may be boosted by a competitive Democratic senatorial primary between Joe Sestak and Arlen Specter (Pat Toomey has no serious competition for the GOP nomination).

Indeed, Sestak’s surge in the Senate race is probably the only reason Critz isn’t trailing significantly in PA-12. In early April, a Quinnipiac poll showed Specter leading by 21 points and Sestak trailed in every poll through the end of April. Five of the six most recent polls, however, show Sestak leading, so Democrats have a lot more incentive to turn out.

It is likely that many of the Democrats who will vote against the long-term incumbent Specter in the Senate race will also vote against Murtha’s henchman Critz in PA-12. Of course, Republicans can’t really count on those kind of crossover votes in their turnout strategy; instead, they’re relentlessly beating the bushes for Republican voters.

UPDATE II: Linked by Jim Hoft at Gateway Pundit. Thanks, Jim!

UPDATE III: Amy Crawford of the Greensburgh Tribune-Review does some good reporting for the New Republic:

Twelve hours a day for several weeks now, supporters of Tim Burns, the GOP’s candidate for Congress in Pennsylvania’s Twelfth district, have staffed a call center in a mostly-vacant office building in downtown Washington, PA. Bundles of phone cables hang from the ceiling, and the walls are decorated with navy “Tim Burns for Congress” signs and an American flag. “If he wins, he’s going to go to Washington and slow down the massive spending,” avowed Chris Burdick, 21, who had driven up from West Virginia to make calls.
Like Burdick, volunteers have come from out of town after learning about Burns on conservative websites and from Fox News. Across the country, other Burns supporters are using the campaign’s call-from-home program, which allows them to reach voters in southwest Pennsylvania from kitchen tables and living room couches as far away as California. Burns strategist Kent Gates is unapologetic about the outsiders. “This is a national election,” he declares. . . .

I showed you the Burns telephone operation in my May 2 special report on PA 12. Crawford seems to have filed her New Republic story before the latest poll showed Burns pulling ahead, but it’s still a very informative article — read the whole thing.

UPDATE IV: Critz brought in Bill Clinton for a rally in Johnstown yesterday — Brian O’Connor of Red Dog Report has more. And we’ve now got a Memeorandum thread.

UPDATE V: Linked by Da Tech Guy, and here’s Jennifer Rubin at Commentary:

A friend . . .who spent six days in the Pennsylvania 12th district . . . e-mails that he has been going door-to-door for Republican Tim Burns: “The Republican base is more motivated than the other guys and it will be all about turn out. Scott Brown spoke here [Friday]. The Dems are pouring it on, and the SEIU is in this big time, but we’ll win this race.” . . .
A loss for the Democrats in what has been characterized as a “bellwether” district will likely intensify the panic building in Democratic ranks.

What could be better than “panic building in Democratic ranks”?

+ + + + + +

To get the latest updates on the campaign, check #PA12 on Twitter, and you can also follow @TimothyBurns or his campaign’s outreach coordinator, Angela Lash (@Lash3). Anyone who wants to help with the Republican campaign can visit TimBurnsForCongress.com, or e-mail the campaign or call 814-619-3414.

PREVIOUSLY:

Rule 5 Sunday

by Smitty

Rule 5 Sunday arrives, somewhat tardy, as I was off galavanting. But this is not why you read this post, in any case.

Regret tardiness, but, as you can see, it takes a while to plow through that many URLs. Peace, all.

Meet a Tory from Bromsgrove

The very phrase “Tory from Bromsgrove” probably calls to mind a portly old chap with a derby, a mustache, a bumbershoot and perhaps a monocle. Say hello to Sajid Javid:

When people talk about political demographics as if speaking of inexorable historical forces, they neglect the infinite capacity of the Left to screw things up so badly as to alienate a decisive majority of the electorate — as has happened repeatedly in U.S. politics in my lifetime: 1968, 1980, 1994 and 2002.

Of course, the Right routinely fumbles away its majorities — 1974, 1992, 2006 — but our Conservative friends across the pond evidently never accepted the identity-politics formulation that would have you believe that a bus driver’s son named “Sajid Javid” is automatically a Labour vote. And if you think that such remarkable phenomena can’t happen over here, ask me sometime to tell you about a pro-life activist I met not long ago, a young New Englander whose father is Italian, whose mother is Jewish and who is himself an evangelical Protestant and — wait for it — a Buchananite paleoconservative.

MP Javid came to my attention by way of an e-mail from a British friend who worked for the GOP in 2008, and who recently returned to Ye Merrye Olde to lend a hand in the Tory campaign. My friend is now a member of Javid’s parliamentary staff at the House of Commons.

Just thought this bit of sunny news might help dispel any tiny cloud of pessimism here on the American Right. BTW, I was just Twittering with a volunteer from Georgia who spent the day foot-canvassing a precinct for Tim Burns in PA-12. They went door-to-door on Sunday in neighborhoods that were just canvassed Friday.

That should give you an idea of how heavy they’re working that district. And come Tuesday, they’ll do “knock-and-drag” operations, if necessary. Remember that victory always begins with one simple thing — the determination to win. Once you make up your mind to win, nothing is impossible.

Foppish Muffinboy Jeered for Ridiculous Asshattery

by Smitty

Uncle Jimbo salutes Eric Holder, for ‘steamroller’ values of ‘salute’. To everything there is a season, and Holder’s despicable performance before congress merits the flogging delivered, in my estimation.
Also, the blogroll has seen a massive update, adding a dozen or so blogs that had been shamefully absent. Sorry.
Fishersville Mike thinks that everyone should get mugged.
Continue reading Foppish Muffinboy Jeered for Ridiculous Asshattery →

Almost as Good as ‘Epistemic Closure’

That Atlantic piece about Ricochet has set off a very interesting blog discussion about what it is conservatives should be doing with New Media. All we need now is for Julian Sanchez to weigh in, get Glenn Greenwald and David Frum involved, and we’ll have another pointless month-long time-waster.

While we await the onset of Sanchezistic discourse, however, the rest of us have a chance to audition for the role of Armchair Intellectual:

  • Clark Stooksbury is “inclined to agree with Dan Riehl” — mainly because it permits Clark to revisit his Evil Neocon Theory of Conservative Failure. I’m not quite sure if he’s suggesting that the Republican Party is a Mossad-orchestrated conspiracy, but . . .
  • Thers at Firedoglake requires scare-quotes for  “conservative ideas,” which he pronounces “stupid” — a familiar argument: Liberals are smarter than you because they say so!
  • Professor Donald Douglas sees an opportunity to put another couple of lumps on Conor Friedersdorf’s head, which is the kind “fun, accessible and light-hearted” project we can all enjoy.

OK, so what about my own concerns that (a) the light-hearted fun should have begun with a phone call to me, and (b) at this point in time, winning congressional elections should take precedence among conservative priorities?

Ideology and iPods

Not too much support for proposition (a) — although I don’t really expect others to acknowledge that I am the center of the universe — but in a comment on proposition (b), Noel from Cold Fury pointed out that Episode 16 of Ricochet (that link is an MP3 download) includes some electoral advocacy for Dr. Rob Steele for Congress. And they featured Tim Burns in Episode 14. (Yes, that’s another MP3 download.)

Important confession: I’ve never owned an iPod, a device I regard as Satanic in origin and purpose. So while I’ve been a guest on many podcasts, I’ve never been the audience for podcasts. Therefore I am ill-prepared to discuss the prospects of saving conservatism via MP3 downloads, although I suspect that Ricochet is unlikely to replace Metallica and Lady Gaga in the iPod preferences of The Cool Kids.

My wholly subjective and egocentric perspective — i.e., I don’t listen to podcasts, so who gives a rip about podcasts? — may be blinding me to the world-historic implications of Ricochet, but that wouldn’t be the first time my semi-Luddite tendencies caused me to arrive late to an important trend. (Me to intern Amy Doolittle, circa 2002: “OK, so what are these ‘weblog’ thingies you keep talking about, and why should I let you do a feature story about them?”)

On the other hand, the Ricochet home page describes their mission as “center-right conversation” and “center-right” is a term I loathe like God hates sin. It smuggles into our discourse the misbegotten conception of a political “center” that is an obsolete legacy of Arthur Schlessinger — a liberal who, in the aftermath of the GOP’s 1946 takeover of the House, sought to define centrism and moderation in terms advantageous to liberals.

“Center-right” may or may not be a Laodicean formula for spineless, unprincipled compromise, but it is certainly not the kind of fighting creed that summons bold spirits to rally ’round and drive the enemy from the field of battle. Conservatives don’t need a Politics of Negotiation with liberalism — am I the only one who remembers how that “change the tone” and “compassionate conservatism” stuff worked out for Dubya? — we need a Politics Of Victory that sends liberalism fleeing for the hills.

The ill-conceived Bushian attempt to craft a center-right “third way” was precisely why Karl Rove’s “Permanent Republican Majority” resulted in the exact opposite of its intended result. And sic semper hoc — go back and read Bill Buckley’s anathema on Eisenhower-era “Modern Republican” idiocy. The cluelessness of Modern Republicanism led directly to eight years of JFK/LBJ, the very zenith of 2oth-century liberalism in power, with attendant political-cultural catastrophes that still haunt us today.

Yet I do not blame the proprietors of Ricochet for the pernicious phraseology of their home page. They did not create the phrase, and it might be eliminated by a simple tweak of their WordPress dashboard. Despite my bruised feelings about my omission from the “conversation,” I am pleased to see that they’ve recruited James Poulos and his genius sideburns as managing editor.

Why? Precisely because, as Stooksbury points out, the contributors to the Ricochet “conversation” are almost uniformly neocons, and I know Poulos has paleocon DNA. If Poulos and his sideburns are permitted inside the Big Tent, this is perhaps a signal that some of the more shrewd neocons have recognized the error of their Urge To Purge attempt to consolidate unquestioned hegemony within the Right. Many years ago, I privately counseled Poulos never to admit publicly that he had read M.E. Bradford — “Mel who?” — and he has shrewdly heeded that counsel. 

Loyal Minions, Losers and Laughingstocks

Poulos will, of course, deny that he is part of my long-term Gramscian conspiracy to mount a paleocon “long march through the institutions” of the Right, but what kind of conspiracy would it be, if the Loyal Minions were not pledged to secrecy? And what about the fact that you’re laughing at this as if it were all a big joke?

Exactly — part of the Master Plan.

Speaking of secret conspiracies, today I received an e-mail from a confidential source who is involved in online political activism of the pragmatic Let’s-Win-Some-Elections variety, and my source identifies various self-defeating propensities commonly encountered:

  • The people who think that there aren’t any differences between the two parties . . .;
  • The people who blame everybody except their own faction for the problems with the GOP;
  • The people who don’t think that they need to support the results of a primary that they participated in but didn’t win; and, generally
  • The people who don’t think that they need to be polite to the political party that they want to use as a tool with which to change public policy.

The good news is that you can still foster activism — the Tea Party was a godsend for encouraging the basic concept of getting together in the fresh air and complaining, all at once — but there’s hella people out there who don’t want to do what is pretty much thankless grunt work. Which is why there’s a Ricochet, and which is why neither you nor I were headhunted for it.

Some very cogent analysis there, even if it steps on my toes a wee bit. Rudeness toward the GOP is certainly something I’ve never avoided. I take a “tough-love” approach toward delinquency, and when Republicans start selling out — inter alia, people actively seeking the re-election of John McCain ought to hide their heads in shame– they’re begging to be punk-smacked, and often, and by someone who knows how.

More importantly, however, Republicans need to abandon the kind of buttoned-down politeness that requires them to pretend that the Democratic Party is motivated by a genuine desire for the public good when they are, in fact, the Evil Coalition of Liars and Fools. (Hint: You will become an honest Democrat when you become an ex-Democrat, admitting you have been a Fool deceived by Liars.)

The “thankless grunt work” aspect of politics noted by my anonymous friend is something Ronald Reagan addressed:

“You can accomplish much, if you don’t care who gets the credit.”

It has been my pleasure over the years to become acquainted with many of those whose uncredited labors helped accomplish the Reagan Revolution, and I know the truth of that saying.

Fully acknowledging my own egocentric lust for glory — “Being Notorious Is Not the Same Thing As Being Famous, But It’s Better Than Being Anonymous” — it is nevertheless true that I do behind-the-scenes work for which I never receive credit.  A bad reputation can be a very valuable thing, if you know how to use it.

Do I purposefully act the part of a ridiculous clown? Yes. Do I occasionally accomplish good things without credit? Yes, again. 

Let others self-consciously strive to be universally acknowledged as Serious Thinkers — that’s the “smart” way to become an utter laughingstock.

But why bring Conor Friedersdorf into this?

I don’t much mind wasting time on a Sunday afternoon, but some things are more wasteful than others.

VIDEO: Best Ad Ever Produced for Agriculture Commissioner

Ag Commissioner? Who ever heard of a great ad for Ag Commissioner? Welcome to Alabama, son! And say hello to Dale Peterson:

The Winchester sort of makes it, huh?

UPDATE: Adrien Chen at Gawker can’t bring himself to give me a hat-tip for being the first to blog about “The Most American Thing Ever Made,” but I’ll count this as one more uncredited mitzvah for the Clown Prince of the Right-Wing Blogosphere.

UPDATE II: I’ll get re-Tweeted by Alyssa Milano before I ever get so much as a hat-tip from Allahpundit. He’s like the Red Baron to my Snoopy, y’know?

UPDATE III: OK, Peterson’s got the Conservative Lesbian vote. Now all he needs is to be denounced by Rachel Maddow and he’ll catapult to stardom — winning me a case of Coronas in the process. (Politics is a lot more interesting when you’ve got bets riding on the outcome.)

By the way, here’s how I got aced out of full credit for my role in this viral phenomenon: Independent film producer Ladd Ehlinger Jr. e-mailed it to me, I blogged it at 11:08 EDT and Tweeted it:

@DaveWeigel VIDEO: Best Ad Ever Produced for Agriculture Commissioner: http://bit.ly/cBPloZ [] @FilmLadd is Alabama’s John Ford!

Ladd then re-Tweeted, which must have been how Chen picked it up for Gawker, then via RSS to Allahpundit, etc., etc.

Although I don’t do the atavistic blood-vengeance enemies-list thing — it’s too much hassle to keep track of all the people who’ve screwed me over — I must occasionally point out how I get screwed over, just so that my peers in the Chopped-Liver-Sphere know that they’re not alone.

Solidarity is very important in the Legion of the Doomed. Otherwise, we might become even more demoralized than we already are.

UPDATE IV: Weasel Zippers gives me no linky-love. Jim Hoft and Erick Erickson give me none either, but there’s a Memeorandum thread now, and I’m linked by The Lonely Conservative, Mind Numbed Robot and Bob Belvedere at Camp of the Saints. Welcome to the Legion of the Doomed.

‘Fun, Light-hearted and Accessible’ Is OK, But How About Winning Elections?

My first reaction to the Ricochet story was admittedly idiosyncratic, whereas Dan Riehl takes a more practical view:

It’s a complex topic, but the Left tends to use new media tactically to generate specific results and win elections, not just nationally – but in states and districts, as well. OTOH some on the Right seem focused on creating, or simply recycling the same old same old, in hopes of creating new stars. There’s a need for both. But I suspect what the Left is doing is more likely to pay off, politically speaking.

I certainly agree, and have witnessed this phenomenon first-hand. I’ve been amazed at the difficulty in the past few weeks of getting conservatives to pay attention to the PA-12 special election. Here is a chance to take a seat away from Nancy Pelosi — to give the Democrats a good punch in the nose — and yet it hasn’t gotten nearly the kind of attention that Scott Brown got four months ago.

Some of us were discussing this Friday evening in Pennsylvania, and various explanations were offered. OK, it’s a congressional election — one of 435 seats — as opposed to a Senate seat. And there is not the kind “41st vote” factor here, as there was in Massachusetts in January. Neverthless, PA-12 is the only actually election (i.e., not just a primary) on Tuesday, and you’d think conservative New Media would be fired up and focused. But they’re not, at least not like they were in January.

It was suggested, in the discussion we had Friday, that perhaps the failure of the Lynch campaign in last month’s FL-19 special election had made people a little gun-shy about getting emotionally invested in PA-12, but that doesn’t make sense. Every election is a different election. FL-19 was a nearly unique situation — Michael Barone’s post-election analysis was insightful — and the demographics and political history of PA-12 are completely different.

If that explanation doesn’t work, what about Bill Russell’s relentless badmouthing of Tim Burns? Russell, who lost to Jack Murtha by 15% in 2008, is disgruntled over not getting the GOP nomination in the PA-12 special election. Russell has ostentatiously refused to endorse Burns in the special election, and Russell’s campaign — he’s still on the ballot in the GOP primary — seems focused entirely on tearing down Burns. (Russell’s spokesman smeared Burns as an “opportunist” in the Pittsburgh paper last week.)

It isn’t hard to imagine that those who supported Russell in 2008 share his disappointment, but the logic of being the anti-Murtha candidate died with Murtha on Feb. 8, and Russell never developed any other message. The “opportunist” smear against Burns is just that, a smear. Burns helped organize the first Tea Party in his community in April 2009 and his congressional candidacy was the result of grassroots supporters encouraging him to run. Yet I fear that Russell has used the connections he made in 2008 to discourage conservative New Media coverage of the Burns campaign.

As troubling as that scenario might be — one man’s vengeful spite damaging an otherwise promising prospect — there’s an even more disturbing possibility. Maybe the inattention to the PA-12 special election indicates that New Media on the Right simply don’t understand what’s at stake here.  Maybe conservatives don’t realize that politics is about, y’know, winning elections?

A scary thought. Dan’s point about the Left’s tactical use of New Media stirred up that thought, which has been rattling around in my brain for a few weeks.  Maybe the Tea Party phenomenon was a temporary fad, an ephemeral thing. Maybe all those people who turned out at rallies on 9/12 just got bored and lost interest when their activism didn’t yield immediate results. Now they want to go back to what they were doing before — bitching about liberal bias in the MSM, etc. — and so there’s no incentive for conservative New Media to pay attention to the mechanics of electoral politics. Why cover campaigns, if nobody wants to read about campaigns?

Scary thought, I say, because all these pundit projections of Republicans gaining 40 or more House seats in November — enough to recapture a majority — don’t mean squat, if people won’t pay attention to key campaigns this fall. Among the 253 House seats currently held by Democrats, at least 90 are plausibly winnable for the GOP. (See Jim Geraghty’s analysis at National Review.) If getting New Media focused on House campaigns is difficult when there’s only election in the whole country, what will it be like after Labor Day, when there are 90+ key races going on?

Most conservatives already live in Republican-held House districts. The GOP’s biggest New Media challenge for 2010, I believe, is to motivate and mobilize these people as activists, getting them to help out with congressional campaigns in nearby Democratic-held districts, so that Republican challengers in key districts have more volunteers to act as “boots on the ground” in these campaigns. While online fundraising is important, the money will follow if people get fired up about the candidates.

However, unless there is some greater effort to do what Dan Riehl talking about — using New Media “tactically” — I fear that Republican House campaigns will suffer unnecessarily from a shortage of enthusiasm.