The Other McCain

“Yeah, I know political journalists aren’t supposed to believe in ‘omens.’ Still, there’s something vaguely . . . hinky about the way Perry’s stealth campaign has been operating here in Iowa.
“Call me crazy. Attribute my forebodings of doom to irrational prejudice. Say what you will, and I don’t care, but I felt a need to put on the record my instinctive sense that there’s something fundamentally wrong about the Perry campaign. And if Jan. 20, 2013, brings the joyous inauguration of President Perry, then you can say my fears were mistaken. Yet I can’t shake my gut hunch that it won’t work out that way. Some kind of catastrophe will result, one way or another.”
— Robert Stacy McCain, Aug. 9, 2011

OK, Smitty’s been doing the philosophical thing with his series about “Explaining Postmodernism,” while I’ve been trying to do news, news, news, and I’m in a mood to stretch my intellectual legs a few minutes.

Last night I nudged Ace a little bit, and today Jeff Goldstein gave Ace an intellectual body-check, and then today — riffing on a Dennis Miller rant — Ace came back with a long argument that included this:

[P]eople don’t get invested, as far as emotional and [egotistical] investment, in facts and data.
What they get emotionally and egotistically invested in is probabilities and guesses based upon underlying worldview.
It’s this — the gut, the “psychic vibe,” the horse-sense, the common-sense, the cunning, the read on people, the ability to predict the future based on incomplete information — that people really get personally invested in.
It really makes no sense. Everyone knows there is no such thing as psychic vibes, everyone knows the “gut” is a decent instinctual device but hardly something you’d want to start betting big money on, and everyone knows that predicting the future is a job for charlatans and fools, but when we start making predictions — “Sarah Palin can’t win!”; “No, Sarah Palin will dominate!“ — all of a sudden we start speaking with a level of assuredness and confidence and emotional investment that we are too smart to apply to virtually any other situation.
And this keeps happening. No matter what the topic, the less that is known about a situation, the less intellectually confident we can each be about our tentative conclusions, the more emotionally confident we will become.

Well, you can read the whole thing, but here’s my counterpoint: We know what we know and we reason outward on the basis of known facts — accumulated through education, observation and experience — to speculate on the probable nature of the unknown.

What Ace calls “gut” is therefore not always pure instinct or mere arrogant assertion of personal, subjective opinion.

There is such a thing as an informed guess. If someone is a professional pilot, and he sees a TV news report about an airline crash, what he guesses about the likely cause of the crash is not merely “gut.” Likewise, if a veteran police detective picks up a magazine and reads a story about an unsolved murder case, his suppositions about the crime are more than “gut.” Continue reading Friedrich Hayek vs. Ace of Spades →