The lack of a clear 2012 Republican presidential front-runner is prompting lesser-known figures to consider joining the race.
Instead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney or former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, some conservative groups are looking for fresh faces and asking: Why not Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan or former Godfather’s Pizza Chief Executive Herman Cain? . . . “We need a good solid conservative who can get the base excited, and that person just isn’t out there right now,” said Karen Beseth, a New York-based conservative blogger who is now backing Mr. Cain. . . .
Mr. Cain launched a presidential exploratory committee Wednesday, and said in an interview that he hopes to appeal to “regular folk.”
Wednesday’s trip to Capitol Hill was amazing. I spent most of the afternoon with Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, her staff, supporters and family, including a trip to the basement of the Capitol for her ceremonial swearing-in photo with Speaker John Boehner.
The lady in the middle holding the Bible is Congresswoman Buerkle’s 89-year-old mother.
I’ll be back to update with more from yesterday’s event-filled trip — including the story of how one of my Tweets started a rumor about Tabitha Hale getting married. (Don’t worry guys, she’s still available. But you’d better move fast. Once I start this matchmaking thing, sometimes girls will just marry any old random stranger so I’ll stop pestering them.)
When Pete Da Tech Guy and I visited Buerkle’s 25th New York district in mid-October, we crashed at the Lonely Conservative’s house. Back with more updates in a few minutes.
Buerkle, a former nurse and lawyer for the state attorney general’s office, described her swearing-in as “a tremendous honor.”
“At the same time you’re humbled by the responsibility of the office and representing the district, and not wanting to let down the people who are back home in our district,” she said.
Buerkle’s family — including two brothers, two of her six children and her 89-year-old mother — came to Washington for the swearing-in ceremony. Buerkle said her family’s presence was what she most looked forward to during her first day as a congresswoman. “I’m very proud, and her father would have been too. She’s so much like him,” said Buerkle’s mother, Sadie Colella of Auburn.
Buerkle’s younger brother, Tom Colella, who worked as a senior adviser for her campaign, said watching the ceremony was “truly historic and very exciting.”
The reporter who wrote that, Elizabeth Bewley, is with Gannett’s D.C. bureau. I was talking to her and asked her name and when she said, “Bewley,” I thought she said, “Bueller.” Of course, this immediately made me think of the movie line: “Bueller? Bueller?”
Tom Colella is a great guy. I had a chance to talk to him when Buerkle’s supporters held a reception last night at the Dubliner. More updates in a few minutes.
UPDATE IV: Regular readers will remember that the day Da Tech Guy and I arrived in Buerkle’s district was the same day a Siena College poll — front-page news in the Sunday edition of the Syracuse Post-Standard — showed Democrat incumbent Dan Maffei leading Buerkle 51-39. At Wednesday night’s reception, I had a chance to speak to Republican pollster John McLaughlin, who explained why that was a “drive-by poll”:
McLaughlin says: “They were biasing the questionnaire within a biased sample.” The Siena poll surveyed registered voters (not properly screened for likely voters) and the questionnaire began by asking a serious of questions about controversial issues (e.g., extending the Bush tax cuts) that had the effect of biasing the response to the question of how the respondent would vote in the congressional election. This demonstrates how sloppy reporting of poll data can result in journalism that is badly misleading.
About an hour after newly elected Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, administered the mass oath of office for all 435 House members, Buerkle had to rush from the House floor. She had a 3:30 p.m. appointment for a one-on-one ceremonial swearing-in for the cameras with Boehner and her family members.
By leaving the House floor, Buerkle missed the first vote on a resolution by the 112th Congress and her first as a member of the House of Representatives. She was among 20 House members (and 16 Republicans) to miss the procedural vote on adopting the rules of the new Congress.
Buerkle and about a dozen family members, meanwhile, stood for about 20 minutes under hot television lights while waiting for Boehner to arrive for the ceremony. Eventually, an aide brought water and a chair for Buerkle’s 89-year-old mother, Sadie, who made the trip to Washington from Auburn.
I’m told that Buerkle will be able to amend the record to reflect her “yes” vote on the resolution.
The first day of the new Congress was kind of a scramble, and not just for Buerkle. I got to Capitol Hill about 1:30 p.m. When I parked at the Union Station garage, my plan was to head to the Longworth House Office Building, where my friend Ericka Andersen has landed a job as press secretary to newly-elected Rep. Todd Rokita (IN-4) I figured I’d drop by and say “hi” to Ericka and then check the directory to locate other new members’ offices (the online congressional directory hadn’t been updated prior to the swearing-in).
As I walked past the Hart Senate Office Building entrance on Delaware Avenue, however, I had an idea. So I went inside and asked the security guard, “Where’s Marco Rubio’s office?” He gave me directions: Down the hall, through the tunnel to the Dirksen building, take a right through the cafeteria . . .
Alas, poor Marco! Florida’s Tea Party superstar has been stuck in a temporary office in the basement, behind the cafeteria, on a dead-dead corridor across the hall from the Senate stationery store!
The new senator himself wasn’t in — “spending some family time” after the swearing-in, his receptionist said. Rubio’s office is next door to the temporary office of newly-elected Sen. Dan Coats of Indiana. A staffer in Coats’ office explained to me that unlike the House — where departing members are whisked out of their offices and the new members whisked in before the swearing-in — the Senate gives departing members up to five months to clear out of their offices. So new senators like Rubio and Coats might not be in their permanent offices until May.
Anyway, after I’d jotted down the names of the press secretaries for these two new members (collecting such contacts being the main purpose of my trip), then I went back to the elevator to get up to the ground floor and make my way out. As I approached the elevator, I saw a familiar face.
“Senator Lott!” I said. For indeed, there was Mississippi Sen. Trent Lott, former Senate majority leader, just walking down the hall. No entourage, no aides or staffers or reporters following him around — just a senator walking through the basement of the Dirksen building.
“How you doing?” said Sen. Lott, who didn’t seem to recognize me as well as I recognized him. “You having a good time?”
“Oh, yes — having a great time!” I answered. “Good to see you.”
“Thanks — good to see you, too,” he said, and off he went. Whether he was going to get some stationery or to check in on Rubio and Coats, I’m not sure.
My adventure on Capitol Hill continued, but I’ll tell the rest of it in the next update. Have you contributed to Shoe Leather Fund yet?
UPDATE VI: Leaving the Dirksen building, I continued up toward the Capitol, crossing Constitution Avenue. I walked south across the east front of the Capitol — past the rows of SUVs and town cars waiting to convey congressional leaders to their post-swearing-in destinations — and when I got to the other side, near Independence Avenue, I saw a small group of pro-life protesters:
Nearby, famous pro-life activist Randall Terry was recording his podcast/broadcast TV show:
I had a good conversation with Mr. Terry who, despite his firebrand reputation as the founder of Operation Rescue, is actually a genial and humorous fellow. While I was talking to him, I saw a familiar face coming up the sidewalk from the direction of the Longworth building:
Excuse the unfortunate shadow on the photo. That’s Deb McCown, whom I supervised when she was an intern at The Washington Times. Deb’s now an award-winning reporter for the Bristol (Va.) Herald-Courier and was in town to cover the swearing-in of Rep. Morgan Griffith (VA-9), whom regular readers will remember from my final trip of the 2010 campaign season.
Deb had been to Griffith’s office (1108 Longworth), where my buddy Blake Roark is now a member of Griffith’s congressional staff. Deb said Griffith wasn’t in his office, and she had been told he was in the Capitol, so she was hurrying on her way over there to try to find him for an interview. Obviously, she succeeded, because here’s her story for the Herald-Courier:
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Speaking with his family outside the House chamber, U.S. Rep. Morgan Griffith searched for a pen.
The only one he had was red, and he had to sign the paperwork that comes with taking office as a member of Congress: the oath of office and a pledge not to reveal any state secrets.
The Salem Republican, who unseated 28-year incumbent Rick Boucher in November’s election, was sworn in as Virginia’s 9th District Congressman on Wednesday, taking the oath along with other members of the 112th Congress.
Asked for an interview, he made an unusual request: “Let’s trade pens.”
“I’ve decided I’m not going to sign my oath in red,” he said. . . .
Read the rest of Deb’s story. It’s good to see a young journalist doing Old School reporting. Whether or not I deserve any credit for my former intern’s success, I’ll claim it anyway. And I’ll finish telling you about the rest of my day on Capitol Hill in another update but . . . hey, have you hit the tip jar yet?
UPDATE VII: OK, so Deb had to hurry off in pursuit of Griffith. I waved good-bye and headed off toward the Longworth building. The crossing light at Independence Avenue was red, so I had to wait. I glanced back toward the Capitol and did a double-take: Who was that familiar-looking lady walking down the sidewalk toward me?
It was newly sworn-in Congresswoman Buerkle, with some of her staff and family, en route to her new office which — as she informed me — was in 1630 Longworth.
Once again, I made a snap decision: I’d scratch my original plan and just shadow Team Buerkle. The new plan proved extraordinarily convenient from a journalistic perspective.
For example, when we got to the entrance to the Longworth building, there was a line to get through the metal detectors. But I was now part of a congressional entourage, you see. Buerkle flashed her membership pin and — whoosh! — we sailed right through the security checkpoint.
Kinda cool. Anyway, we went to her office and I made sure I got this photo:
That’s a photo I wasn’t sure I’d ever see. Remember that three-week vote count that didn’t end until the Democrat conceded right before Thanksgiving? Inside her office, several of Buerkle’s supporters who had traveled from New York for the swearing-in were waiting for her.
There was coffee and cookies (I never miss a chance at free food), and I talked to some of her supporters about the amazing campaign. They asked how I’d become interested in Buerkle’s campaign. I explained that several people (including the Lonely Conservative) had urged me to write about Buerkle. My first post on NY-25 was Oct. 12 — when I was in Boston to cover the Sean Bielat campaign, and I wrote:
Well, of course, by the time we did get there — Sunday, Oct. 17 — the situation looked bleak. Buerkle was being slammed with Democrat attack ads, and there was that Syracuse Post-Standard story about the poll showing her trailing by 12 points. That was absolutely the rock-bottom moment of the campaign and, frankly, I was a lot less confident at that point than my “landslide” prediction might have suggested.
Some of the New York folks I talked to yesterday at Congressman Buerkle’s office had been interviewed by Da Tech Guy at the Oct. 18 press conference where Ann Marie rebutted the Democrat attack ads. How weird was it — what a strange twist of fate — that out of all the congressional campaigns in the country, Pete and I just happened to show up in that district on that day? How strange that Buerkle ended up being the 242nd seat — the last Republican to clinch a win — in the biggest GOP landslide in more than 60 years?
While her supporters posed for pictures with the new Congresswoman at her Longworthy building office yesterday, her staff was busy arranging to get everyone back over to the Capitol for the swearing-in photo. They had to get a wheelchair for Mrs. Colella; it’s a long way through the subterranean passages between Longworth and the Capitol and, while Mrs. Colella is ambulatory, she walks slowly and that long trek would have been quite an ordeal for her.
Congresswoman Buerkle gave her supporters a brief speech, and then it was time for the family (and me) to depart to the Capitol with two staffers guiding the group. I’ll continue the story in the next update. And if you get the feeling maybe you should hit the tip jar . . . well, don’t fight the feeling!
UPDATE VIII: Sorry this story is taking so long to finish, but I keep getting interrupted by breaking news — a bomb scare in Maryland, Herman Cain speaking at CPAC — and so now we continue with the adventure.
We went into the catacombs beneath the Longworth Building and through a tunnel where we boarded a little subway train. I sat in the same car with Rep. Buerkle’s mother, brother and nephew. The train took us to the Capitol and we came in through the basement, until we arrived in Statuary Hall, where there was a table set up to sign in the members arriving for their photos. I took a few seconds of video:
Note Rep. Buerkle’s take-charge manner, leading the way. Also, notice her slightly exasperated expression: “Oh, no, it’s McCain with his pink camera again!” By this point, we were running a minute or two late, in part because Rep. Buerkle’s mother had to go by a wheelchair-accessible route through the underbelly of the Longworth building.
When we finally arrived in the room where they were getting the photos taken, there was a gaggle of reporters, photographers and TV cameras:
This is where the long wait began. Evidently, our delayed arrival had prompted Speaker Boehner to take a break. (I’ll just take a wild guess that he stepped out for a cigarette or two.) Meanwhile, staffers arranged Rep. Buerkle and her family for the their photo:
Speaker Boehner came in, quickly posed for photos, and left. We then exited through the other side of the room. Rep. Buerkle stopped for an interview with a reporter, and I bumped into Jon Ward of the Daily Caller. We talked a for minute, then I followed Rep. Buerkle’s part down a corridor where we bumped into yet another familiar face:
Rep. Renee Ellmers (NC-2) and Ann Marie have kind of become buddies in the 112th Congress. They both ran “outsider”-style grassroots campaigns and both had to go through extended vote-counts in close races. (Ellmers beat Bob Etheridge, who didn’t concede until Nov. 19.)
Anyway, after that surprise interview opportunity, I headed outside to check my phone calls — I’d turned my phone off while I was in the photo-op room — and then on to the evening’s celebrations. This is the part where one of my Tweets led to those Tabitha Hale marriage rumors. I’ll tell the rest of that story in the final update, but don’t you think it’s about time to hit the tip jar?
UPDATE IX: Before I split up with Team Buerkle, I made sure I got the answer to the key question: Where’s the party tonight?
It was a joyous discovery that the swearing-in reception would be held at The Dubliner, a fine establishment where I’ve enjoyed many a post-deadline refreshment. (The Dubliner is the nearest bar to the offices of The Washington Times, so that was where we’d meet for late-night beers back in the day.) And it was just three blocks away from the Union Pub, where Americans For Prosperity was hosting another reception.
As I walked back north in front of the Capitol, I did something professional D.C. journalists seldom do:
This kind of photo is a bit too tourist-y, you see. It’s weird how people take their vacations and come to Washington to see the sights that locals barely even notice. I usually come into DC via the GW Parkway and Connecticut Avenue, drive right past the Washington Monument and don’t even blink. Something else you get so used to seeing in D.C. that you don’t usually notice it:
That’s Brett Baier of Fox News doing a report in front of the Capitol. Actually, he was going over his notes prior to going on air. On days when something big like a State of the Union Address is happening, you’ll see six or eight camera crews scattered around the Capitol grounds doing what they call “stand ups.” Apparently the rule in TV news is, you aren’t really doing congressional reporting unless people can see the Capitol dome behind your head while you’re talking. I don’t think that rule applies to the Internet, but I figured I’d post that picture of me in front of the Capitol dome, just in case.
Well, I went to the Dubliner and, because I was a guest (and the beer was free) I consider the reception to be off-the-record. Let liberals imagine what they will: Lobbyists with briefcases full of unmarked bills from “secret foreign donors,” etc. In all truth, it was just a bunch of people having a party. And why shouldn’t they have a party? They won the election. I talked to some guys about the George Allen 2006 Senate campaign and one told me that Allen is definitely running in 2012. Is that some kind of “exclusive”? Don’t know. Don’t care. I was off the clock.
After about an hour, the guest of honor showed up — Congresswoman Buerkle had to go to another reception before she came to her own reception — and I stayed about another 30 minutes before leaving for the AFP blogger bash up Massachusetts Avenue at the Union Pub. That was where I found Tabitha Hale borrowing a fedora from this dude.
Tabitha (a/k/a Pink Elephant Pundit) is New Media director for FreedomWorks. She’s also from North Carolina and 25 years old — which makes her practically an old maid by down-home standards. So I started in on my usual pro-marriage encouragement harassment, telling these young folks they ought to run off and get married post-haste. And that’s when I Tweeted this:
How that blew up into a huge online controversy, I’m not sure. But if it results in Tabitha getting a diamond ring from somebody, I figure maybe she’ll finally hit my tip jar.
. . . think about Ann Marie Buerkle’s victory in NY-25. She is now six weeks away from being a member of Congress, but what about six weeks ago?
It was Sunday, Oct. 17, and Pete Da Tech Guy and I were driving on our way to cover the Buerkle campaign, when I got a call from the Lonely Conservative. The headline in that morning’s Syracuse Post-Standard was devastating:
The poll showed Maffei with a 51-39 lead. If this poll was accurate, Buerkle was doomed. When we stopped for lunch at a McDonald’s in Hancock, N.Y., I put up a quick blog post scoffing at the poll, but honestly? I was heartsick.
You can’t put too much stock in polls. “Polls Are Not Campaigns,” as I’ve said, but I feared that this poll, which was a big front-page headline in the Syracuse paper, would have such a demoralizing effect on Buerkle’s supporters that it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Buerkle campaign had been kind of a late addition to my campaign radar — I didn’t blog about her until Oct. 12 — and at that time, I had no idea what an onslaught of attack ads she was facing. Maffei had a 5-to-1 money advantage, and he was piling on more than $200,000 a week in TV ads accusing Buerkle of everything you could imagine.
Pete and I attended a Buerkle event in Clyde, N.Y., and there were maybe 50 people there. Maybe. Here it was, two weeks before the election, and the Republican candidate was still speaking to small groups, while Maffei had 1,000 at his rally with Bill Clinton.
This was not encouraging.
The next day, we covered a press conference near Syracuse where Buerkle pushed back against a Maffei attack ad that accused her of failing to pay her taxes. Maybe there were 50 supporters there. Maybe. And just the fact that she was having to do a press conference to answer an attack ad . . .
Look: You answer a TV ad with a TV ad. That’s just Campaign 101. Buerkle was doing a press conference, counting on the media to convey her response to this ad, which indicated that she couldn’t afford to run TV ads answering Maffei’s attacks.
This was not encouraging.
So when Pete and I left NY-25, I was seriously worried about Buerkle’s prospects. She was fighting hard, but unless something happened to change the dynamic of the race, it didn’t look like she could pull it off.
Anyway, Election Night found me in Boca Raton, Fla., amid the happy chaos of Allen West’s victory party in FL-22. It was difficult to keep track of results elsewhere, but somewhere during that madness I saw (perhaps at the Lonely Conservative) that Maffei was ahead by 3,000 votes.
Oh, well, nice try. Close, but no cigar. You win some, you lose some.
And then, the next afternoon, Left Coast Rebel posted the news that, due to late returns from Wayne County, Buerkle was now leading by more than 600 votes!
What happened? How had this campaign — outspent 5-to-1 by the incumbent and trailing in the polls — managed to pull off such an upset?
Remember the old saying, “Where there’s life, there’s hope”?
About five days before the election — while I was on my way to VA-9 to cover Morgan Griffith — the Maffei campaign played the “extremist” card with this ad:
OK, game over, right? She’s a kooky “anti-choice” extremist wingnut. Somebody like that can’t possibly get elected in this supposedly moderate district, right? But the Lonely Conservative didn’t see it that way:
NY25 covers all of Onondaga and Wayne Counties, and part of Cayuga and Monroe Counties. But a large portion of NY25?s voters are in Onondaga County. I did some digging and found out that there were 147,332 Catholics in Onondaga County alone in 2000. . . . I’m sure enough of those Catholics are registered voters who could swing the election in Buerkle’s favor. This race hasn’t been about social issues. It’s been about the economy, the direction of our country, and the failed policies of the current administration and Congress. By running this ad Dan Maffei just gave undecided pro-life voters a reason to vote for Ann Marie Buerkle.
See? Buerkle needed a miracle to win and, by highlighting her pro-life record in the final days of the campaign, her opponent gave her that miracle. Out of more than 200,000 votes cast in NY-25, Buerkle won by 657 votes, and how many of those votes were decided on the pro-life issue?
Da Tech Guy says “nobody outside of me, Stacy and the Lonely Conservative thought [Buerkle] was a winner,” but I had given her up for lost on Election Night.
You see that she and her supporters had every reason to become discouraged and quit. But they kept hoping and fighting and, thanks to an unexpected miracle, they won.
So hang in there. Where there’s life, there’s hope.
The incumbent Democrat appears to have been defeated, according to the Syracuse Post-Standard:
Republican Ann Marie Buerkle holds a 567-vote lead over U.S. Rep. Dan Maffei in the 25th Congressional District race after Wayne County election officials released their unofficial tally of absentee votes today.
Buerkle added 269 votes to her lead after getting 790 votes to Maffei’s 521 in the absentee vote tally in Wayne County. Elections officials in Wayne County completed the tally today and posted the results on their Web site.
With those votes in, the total unofficial vote count for the entire district stands at 104,374 for Buerkle and 103,807 for Maffei, who is seeking his second term in Congress.
Abby Gardner, a spokeswoman for Maffei, said the campaign had no immediate comment on the Wayne County results.
It’s time for Dan Maffei to concede already. It’s over. Ann Marie Buerkle will be the next representative from NY25. There’s nothing left for him to cling to.
Attorneys will head to court early this week to argue over whether a handful of disputed absentee ballots should be counted. But a Onondaga County elections official noted that Maffei’s campaign was the one that objected to most of those disputed ballots, meaning that any count would likely only boost Buerkle’s lead.
Maffei has indicated he may ask for a recount, but Democrats should not put too much hope in that process. In several other House contests this year, recounts have changed the final result by just a handful of votes; certainly not enough to overturn the certified result.
“We are pleased with the numbers released by Wayne County today. There is another court hearing set for Tuesday morning, and we will wait to hear Judge DeJoseph’s determination now that all absentee ballots in New York’s 25th Congressional District have been counted. While we remain confident that Ann Marie Buerkle will emerge the victor, we need to allow the process to proceed as set forth in the original court proceedings initiated by the Maffei campaign.”
DeWITT, N.Y. — I’m blogging tonight from the home of The Lonely Conservative and her lucky husband, Dave. We just left a meet-and-greet with Ann Marie Buerkle in the village of Clyde.
While I had planned to be on the road to Pennsylvania already, but Buerkle’s having a Monday morning press conference near Syracuse, and I figured I needed to stay for that. I’ve got a deadline tonight for The American Spectator and there was no time to check into a hotel, so Mr. and Mrs. Lonely Conservative declared that Pete Da Tech Guy and I should enjoy their hospitality.
There are three key congressional races in this part of New York, and all of these candidates need your help:
I’ve got photos and video and notes and stuff, but deadline is looming, so I’ll try to update after midnight. The title quote is courtesy of Bob Belvedere at the Camp of the Saints.
Karma’s gonna come down heavy here Nov. 2. Do all you can.
The shape of the 22nd District is an assault on common sense. Matt Hudson, campaign manager for Hinchey’s Republican opponent George Phillips, with the map of the 22nd District, which stretches nearly 200 miles, from Ithaca on the west to Poughkeepsie on the east. Hudson is pointing to Broome County, which is Phillips’s stronghold of support.
The sign in front of Phillips HQ in Endicott. The slogan — “Had Enough?” — pretty much sums up the attitude of 22nd District residents fed up with 18-year incumbent Hinchey.
UPDATE II: “Man on the street” interview in NY-25:
HANCOCK, N.Y. — Pete Da Tech Guy and I were driving up Highway 17 toward Binghamton when we got the call from the Lonely Conservative, informing us that Ann Marie Buerkle’s victory is now a near-certainty. However, that’s not the headline in the Syracuse Post Standard:
So the Sienna poll had a margin of error of . . . oh, somewhere in the neighborhood of umpteen gazillion. You could better predict an election by drawing numbers out of a hat.
Less than two weeks ago, a GOP-commissioned poll showed a dead heat in the 25th District, and if Sienna says Maffei’s leading, that can only mean Maffei’s going to be squished flat on Election Day.
Go give Buerkle $20. Pete and I just ate at McDonald’s and now we’re ready to get back on the road again.
UPDATE II: Just realized I completely misread the Sienna poll of Sept. 23. But the point about Sienna’s inaccuracy is only slightly weaker. In August, Sienna had shown Lazio leading Paladino by 13 points — 37 points off the September result, where Paladino won by 24 points.