Last night I got a tip about shenanigans surrounding the congressional re-districting plan in New York State. The state legislature has been unable to reach agreement and a federal magistrate has become involved. A story from the Albany Times-Union has the background, but the bottom line is that they’re under deadline pressure, and there are rumors of “bipartisan” wheeling and dealing with Republicans in the state senate trying to strike a deal with Democrats.
Because of re-apportionment, New York will go from 29 seats in Congress to 27, so it’s like a game of musical chairs. Normally, the GOP could be expected to protect as many incumbents as possible in the re-districting process, but the New York Republican Party is run by a crew of inept insiders who look like they may be about to commit a blunder of Scozzafava-sized proportions.
According to my source, allies of GOP Rep. Tom Reed (NY-29) are angered by reports that some Republicans are trying to carve out a district for wealthy Buffalo businessman Chris Collins with an R+10 rating — i.e., 60% Republican. In order to do that, however, they would trim Republican votes away from neighboring districts, including those of Reed and freshman GOP Reps. Ann Marie Buerkle (NY-25) and Richard Hanna (NY-24).
Collins is former county executive for Erie County, and there has been talk of him challenging Democrat Rep. Kathy Hochul, who won the 26th District seat in a special election last year after Republican Chris Lee resigned in a sex scandal. In that election, Hochul defeated the GOP candidate, Jane Corwin, with help from a third-party candidate, Jack Davis, who sought Tea Party support but whom many Republicans suspected of being a Democrat puppet.
Republicans want to create a large GOP majority in Hochul’s district in order to create a “safe” seat for Collins. Yet some conservatives say that nominating Collins, who is viewed as a moderate, would likely prompt a third-party challenger, perhaps on the Conservative Party line. This might replicate what happened in the NY-23 special election in 2009, when the GOP picked liberal Dede Scozzafava, and conservatives rallied behind Tea Party challenger Doug Hoffman. Scozzafava quit the race and endorsed the Democrat, Bill Owens, who was elected in the previously Republican district.
Conservative allies of Reed are said to be angry at the rumored negotations to trim Republican-leaning precincts from Reed’s district, currently rated R+6, reducing it to R+3, in order to help Collins. As Reed’s supporters see it, this could endanger Reed’s re-election for the sake of what could prove a doomed effort on Collins’s behalf, to say nothing of the impact on Buerkle and Hanna.
There are also rumors that GOP leaders in the state senate might accept a new district map that would endanger re-election prospects for Rep. Bob Turner (NY-9), the Republican who won last year’s special election to replace Democrat Anthony Weiner, who resigned amid a sex scandal.



