My flight leaves Baltimore-Washington International Airport about 9 a.m. and arrives in Jacksonville about 1 p.m. By the time this post goes live, I’ll be on my way to the airport. But I’m troubled by the news reports indicating that Rick Santorum has evidently decided to leave the campaign trail in Florida after tonight’s debate:
Speaking to reporters here [in Naples], the former Pennsylvania senator said was unsure if he would be in Florida the night of the primary, committing only to campaigning in the state [Thursday and Friday]. On Saturday, he’ll head home to Virginia for fundraisers and to prepare his tax records which he plans to soon make public.
Santorum said this weekend will be the first time he’s slept in his own bed since Christmas. . . .
But the GOP hopeful has been seen strong crowds in the South, drawing more than 1,000 supporters to a Megachurch here. And his rhetoric suggests he has no plans to leave the race anytime soon.
“This race has just started. It’s a three man race. We’re going to be in this race for the long term,” he said.
OK, on one hand, this makes a lot of sense. Florida is a winner-take-all state, and if the best Santorum can hope for is third place (as polls currently indicate) it’s only logical that he would rather raise money in Virginia than to spend money traveling around Florida in a last-minute effort that might boost his final showing by a few percentage points, without making any significant difference in terms of delegates.
Nevertheless, it will cost him some potentially valuable media exposure to be off the trail, and a disappointment to his Florida supporters if their candidate doesn’t show up for a Primary Night event in Orlando.
Turning to more practical considerations, however, the campaign calendar becomes more complex and challenging after Florida. There’s the Feb. 4 caucuses in Nevada, expected to be a test of strength between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. (Lots of Mormons and libertarians in Nevada.) I’d be surprised if either Gingrich or Santorum decided to make an all-out effort there, although if they could knock Romney down a few points, it might enable the Paulistas to deprive Romney of a win.
A better chance for Santorum would be on Tuesday, Feb. 7, when both Minnesota and Colorado hold caucuses. With two states on one day, Santorum could focus his strongest campaign effort in one (probably Minnesota, an industrial state with lots of Catholics), trying to score a stronger-than-expected finish, and leave the other to Romney and Gingrich.
Then, however, there’s a three-week gap in the calendar before the Arizona and Michigan primary on Feb. 28, and I’d expect Santorum to go all-out in Michigan: It’s home turf for Romney (whose father was the state’s governor 40 years ago), but it’s also the kind of blue-collar Midwestern industrial state that has been the focus of Santorum’s economic message. If by some miracle of dogged determination, Santorum could pull an upset win in Michigan — his second victory over Romney — the 2012 campaign would be a whole new ballgame. And that would be doubly true if, while Santorum’s got Romney pinned down in Michigan, Gingrich mounts a similar all-or-nothing battle against Romney in Arizona.
That kind of strategic hypothetical is getting way ahead of the game, however. Meanwhile, there’s Florida, where Allahpundit says Romney “seems to have stopped the bleeding, at least. . . . Looks like Mitt’s Freddie Mac attacks at the last debate were more effective than we thought.”
OK, but who is this “we,” Kemosabe? Never mind. From the standpoint of stopping Romney, Santorum’s reported pull-out from Florida is good news because it could help Newt hand Mitt another defeat, confirming that Romney’s “inevitability” is over. But Newt continues playing the “grandiose” game, generating headlines like this:
Gingrich Pledges To Establish
Permanent Base On The Moon
‘By The End Of My Second Term’
Yeah, he’s pandering for aerospace industry votes on the Space Coast, but those people probably don’t mind. It’s only somewhere down the line — when Romney or Obama cuts a TV attack ad talking about the outrageous cost of this space project — that Newt will be forced to pay a political price for spouting kooky sci-fi stuff like this.
UPDATE: Ruh-roh — Newt down by six in the latest Florida poll? High stakes in tonight’s CNN debate. Much will depend on how Wolf Blitzer runs the show. Will he have Mitt and Rick beating up on Newt? Rick and Newt beating up on Mitt? The moderators of these debates exercise an important influence over the proceedings, and some Ph.D. student in communications could get a dissertation of how this year’s debates have been stage-managed.
Late last night I got an e-mail from CNN’s lovely and charming publicist, Jennifer Scoggins, telling me I’m OK with the credentials for the debate. The question is whether there will be room for me in the filing center.