Renee Ellmers, GOP ‘Rock Star’

It was June 14, 2010, and the notorious video of Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-N.C.) manhandling a videographer had just hit the ‘Net when I wrote:

A “macaca” moment for the Democrat. His Republican challenger is Renee Ellmers.

That was the first time Etheridge’s Tea Party-backed GOP challenger was mentioned on the blog. We frequently mentioned Ellmers during the course of the campaign — I’m sure many of y’all contributed to her — and I interviewed her at the Capitol the day she was sworn into office.

Yesterday, Ellmers was featured in the Fayetteville (N.C.) Observer:

This year, Ellmers caught people’s attention in late June when she confronted U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on whether a tax increase on 3 percent of small-business owners should be coupled with spending cuts to reduce the national debt and national deficit. Geithner said there is no other alternative.
“You are wrong,” Ellmers told him. A tax increase would stifle job creation, Ellmers said.
A few days later, the House leadership had Ellmers deliver the Republican Party’s official response to Democratic President Obama’s weekly national address. She talked about Republican ideas on how to create jobs.
Since then, Ellmers has appeared on national television at least eight times. Several of those appearances focused on the debt ceiling. . . .

Read the whole thing.

Obama Speaks, Markets Fall

Before President Obama’s speech, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 90 points. Now — as of 10:45 a.m. ET — it’s down 110 points.

Why? Because he used his speech for a partisan hit on the GOP as offering a bill that “does not solve the problem” and can’t pass Harry Reid’s Democrat-controlled Senate.

But the big question is: Will I win that $10 bet?

UPDATE: Hmmmm. Now a slight bounce — at 10:55, DJIA is off about 40 points around 12,200.

Nothing like a little wager to make you watch this stuff.

UPDATE II: David Dayen at liberal Firedoglake:

Obama says “The House is still trying to pass a bill that the Senate won’t vote for. It does not solve the problem and it has no chance of becoming law. Any bill to avoid default must be bipartisan. It will have to have support of the House and the Senate.” . . .
This is a nothing speech, actually.

Exactly — a mere repetition of his earlier talking points.

UPDATE III: A few financial/economic headlines:

Data shows deeper recession, sharper slowdown
— Reuters

Economy Grows at Sluggish 1.3%; Consumers Pull Back
— CNBC

Economy in U.S. Grows Less Than Forecast After Almost Stalling
— Bloomberg

Arizona Republican Rep. Jeff Flake just said that changes in the Boehner bill make it something he can vote for. And the DJIA just broke into positive territory, so my $10 bet is looking shaky.

Pamela Geller Linked by New York Times

Not in a good way, but by a couple of Norwegian writers blaming her (and “Islamophobia”) for the Oslo massacre:

Hatred of Muslims and resentment of the left — one of us has repeatedly received resentful diatribes against the “multiculturalist elite,” and was mentioned in Mr. Breivik’s own writings — is not confined to Norway. Mr. Breivik has praised Gates of Vienna, a Web site that compares contemporary Europe to long-ago wars with the Ottomans. He has praised writers like Bruce Bawer, the American author of “While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam is Destroying the West from Within,” and Bat Ye’Or, the pseudonym for the British author of the conspiratorial “Eurabia: The Euro-Arab Axis.” He is an enthusiastic reader of the virulently anti-Islamic blog of Pamela Geller, an American who leads the group “Stop Islamization of America” and gained notoriety for her opposition to an Islamic center near ground zero in Manhattan.
Europe’s new right is, in other words, not neo-Nazi; it has swapped anti-Semitism for Islamophobia. After a hiatus of several hundred years, fear of Islam reemerged around 1989, as the Cold War was ending and Iranian mullahs issued a fatwa against the British writer Salman Rushdie. It gained popularity as increasing numbers of Muslims entered Europe as immigrants in the 1990s, and became widespread in the aftermath of 9/11. Traditional racism may actually be waning in several European countries, but hostility toward Islam and animosity toward Muslim immigrants and their children is on the rise. . . .

At least the authors don’t pretend that “hostility toward Islam” arose without any provocation.

The question, I’d say, is which is the greater danger: Islamicization or Islamophobia? And if you believe the former is the greater danger, then the latter is actually rational — even when it presents itself in “virulent” fashion.

BLACK FRIDAY? Betting Market Reaction to Failure of Boehner’s Debt-Ceiling Bill

Drudge Report headlines:

Boehner Delays Vote on Debt...
Limbaugh: We've Been Played...

GALLUP: Obama Rates Higher Than Boehner, Reid on Debt Situation!

Ron Paul: 'Default Is Coming'...

Treasury Contingency Plan on Debt Gives Priority to Bondholders...
Carney: If We Have No Other Alternative We Will 'Take Action'...

Obama faces legal bind if time runs out...

When word came late last night that House Speaker John Boehner didn’t have enough GOP votes to pass his bill, I wrote:

The most obvious possible prediction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop at least 200 points Friday.

Rather than merely predict such a result — talk is cheap — I decided to make the proposition interesting:

Pete Da Tech Guy took the bet. The DJIA closed at 12,240.11 Thursday, so if it closes at 12,040.11 or less Friday, I collect $10. But if the Friday close is 12,040.12 or more, Pete collects $10.

After Pete and I made our friendly wager last night, my buddy John Guardiano started giving me flak about it, saying that among other things I was “playing into the Left’s eagerness to stoke a market downturn so they can force House Republicans to capitulate.”

Here’s the thing: I’m not making a value judgment. It’s irrelevant, as regards my $10 bet, whether the House should or should not pass the Boehner bill. I’m just acting on the knowledge that the market hates uncertainty, which is why the DJIA lost a total 484 points in the past five sessions. And here are the headlines in Friday’s papers:

House Puts Off Debt Vote as Press by Boehner Fails
— New York Times

House Leaders Postpone Vote on Debt Plan
— Washington Post

House Vote on Boehner Plan Is Delayed
— Wall Street Journal

Are you getting my drift here? If the DJIA was losing an average 97 points per day before last night’s big flop, doesn’t it just make sense that Wall Street will be having a Freakout Friday Fire Sale today?

Drew M. at AOSHQ says: “Tomorrow (Friday) is 2Q GDP report day. Should be fun. And by fun I mean, awful.”

The initial reaction to the Big Boehner Bungle from both U.S. futures markets and the Asian markets indicated my common-sense hunch was right. But markets are notoriously unpredictable (otherwise we’d all be rich), so it’s anybody’s guess whether Pete or I will be smiling when the closing bell rings on Wall Street this afternoon.

If you think I’m going to win, you should hit Pete’s tip jar. 

However, if you think Pete’s going to collect the bet, hit my tip jar.



UPDATE: Morning headling from Bloomberg:

Asian Stocks Decline on U.S. Debt Deadlock

. . . “If a resolution in the U.S. is not reached, clearly the economy will suffer so that demand will wane significantly, and we’ll see pressure on Asian exporter earnings and shares,” said Chris Hall, who helps manage $4 billion of assets at Argo Investments Ltd. in Adelaide. “Earnings are mixed across the spectrum. There are still a lot of unknowns right now, and everyone’s incredibly cautious.” . . .
“Its unbelievable, these guys are not just playing with financial markets but their own constituents’ jobs,” said Sydney-based Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which has almost $100 billion under management. “It’s certainly adding to stock-market nervousness. I think they will eventually get a deal that avoids massive spending cuts or default, but the risk is growing that they won’t.” . . .

UPDATE II: Wall Street Journal headline:

European Stocks Plunge on Debt Fears

LIVE AT FIVE – 07.29.11

— compiled by Wombat-socho


TOP NEWS
Conservative Resistance Sinks Boehner Plan

Speaker of the House John Boehner

President Obama threatens default; PRC criticizes Congress

Prosecutors Say DNA, Sex Tape Implicate Sect Leader
FLDS leader remains silent after discharging attorneys

AWOL Soldier Arrested; Planned Attack On Fort Hood
Muslim soldier arrested after buying weapons, explosives at Lubbock gun shop

Special Ops Commander Says Al-Qaeda Near The End
Expects second-generation terrorists to continue fight



POLITICS
Asthma Attack Slows Christie

Governor Chris Christie, R-NJ

Governor spends several hours in the hospital yesterday but plans to return to work today

Strauss-Kahn Accuser Thanks Supporters

Presidential Historian Indicted For Document Theft


Former NY Governor Pataki Mulls Presidential Run

Freshman Conservative Joe Walsh Allegedly Sued For Child Support; Slams Paper for “Hit Piece”

Huntsman Touts Environmental Credentials

Mortgage Interest Deduction On The Chopping Block?



THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Treasury Under Pressure To Provide Backup Plan
Continental Cancels 24 Flights For Sick Pilots
Dollar Gets Trashed As Debt Fears Deepen
Samsung Q2 Profit Slides 18 Percent
Mixed Demand Greets Most Recent Treasury Bill Auction
Stocks Fall, Yen Gains As House Delays Vote
Gold Set For Monthly Gain After Reaching Record
Nintendo: Apple’s Latest Prey
Nielsen: Android Hits 39% Of Smartphone Market Share, iPhones 28%
Motorola Product Delay, Tablet Price Cut To Hurt Q3 Results
Mozilla Preparing Mobile OS For The Web



SPORTS
Patriots Take A Chance On Veteran Misfits

Former Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco, now a Patriot

Ochocinco, Haynesworth picked up in trades

Tiger Announces Return To Golf

Former Yankees Pitcher Irabu Found Dead

Kolb Gets A Shot In Arizona

US National Soccer Team Coach Bradley Fired

UNC Promotes Withers To Head Coach; AD Baddour To Quit

Wandy Holds Cards Down While Lee Pounds Them For 5-3 Astros Win

Rolston Traded To Islanders For Brent Hunter

Brickyard 400’s Star Growing Dimmer

Mets Complete Beltran Trade And Sweep Of Reds



FAMOUS FOR BEING FAMOUS
Denise Richards Regrets Her Boob Jobs

Denise Richards displaying her investments

Opens up about body image problems, her marriage to Charlie Sheen

Winehouse Death A Result Of Alcohol Withdrawal?

Ryan Murphy Talks For First Time About “Glee” Spinoffs And Firing Missteps

“Parks And Recreation” Exclusive: Patricia Clarkson To Raise Hell As Tammy 1

Jenny McCarthy Dumps Oprah Network For NBC

Scarlett Johannson Declines Invite To Marine Ball, But Sends Champagne

Rob Kardashian Signed For “Dancing With The Stars”

Playmates Defend Hugh Hefner In The Bedroom

Olivia Wilde To Play Linda Lovelace?

Lady Gaga Thanks LAPD For Mob Control With Handwritten Note



FOREIGNERS
Libyan Rebels’ Military Chief Of Staff Slain
Mubarak To Be Tried In Cairo Next Week
ROK Storm Toll Mounts; Mines & Explosives Unearthed By Flooding
New Tabloid Hacking Case Stuns Britain
Self Defense Okayed For Kosovo Peacekeepers
In Somalia, Fighting Erupts Over Aid
Humala Calls For New Peruvian Social Programs After Taking Presidential Oath
40 Killed In Yemen Clashes
Israel Announces Full Diplomatic Relations With South Sudan



BLOGS & STUFF
AmSpecBlog: RSC Head Makes Himself Prime Target For Redistricting By Opposing Boehner
Sarah Palin: Congressional Freshmen – For Such A Time As This
Michelle Malkin: The GOP Crappy Meal
USA Today: Bachmann Not Buying Dire Warnings On Default
Bill Kristol: Pelosi’s Reactionary Liberalism
Weasel Zippers: New White House Talking Point – Republicans Trying To “Ruin Christmas”
Thomas Sowell: Ideals V. Realities
Yid With Lid: New Peer-Reviewed Study “Looks Out The Window” To Prove Global Warming Is Hoax
Ed Morrissey: Pew Polls Show Obama Lead Over Generic Republican Gone
Dan Riehl: There’s No Split In The Conservative Movement That Wasn’t Already There
Lonely Conservative: Obamanomics – No To New Jobs, Yes To Higher Energy Prices


SOTD: Working For The Weekend

LATEST: BOEHNER CANCELS VOTE! EARLIER: Pizza Delivery to Boehner’s Office Could Signal an All-Nighter UPDATE: Boehner Yanks Debt-Ceiling Bill at Last Minute! Vote Postponed UPDATE: Sarah Palin Sends Cryptic Message to Republican Freshmen UPDATE: Boehner Now 2 Votes Short?

UPDATE 10:33 p.m. ET: NO VOTE TONIGHT! Boehner couldn’t get enough Republican votes to pass the bill.

UPDATE 10:39 p.m. ET: Chad Pegram of Fox News got the word from GOP Whip Kevin McCarthy at 10:24 p.m. ET.

UPDATE 10:47 p.m. ET: The Hill:

House Republican leaders have postponed indefinitely a vote on Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) debt limit bill after they could not persuade enough Republicans to support the measure.
“No vote tonight,” the third-ranking House Republican, Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), told reporters after leaving Boehner’s office shortly before 10:30 p.m.

The most obvious possible prediction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop at least 200 points Friday.

* * * PREVIOUSLY * * *

UPDATE 9:45 p.m. ET: Jill Jackson of CBS News:

About 2 dozen pizzas were just delivered to Boehner’s office. It’s going to be a long one…

It is at times like this that I say to myself, “Maybe I should’ve stuck with that forklift-driver job I had when I was 25.” Who knows? I might have been loading-dock foreman by now . . .

UPDATE 10:00 p.m. ET: National Journal‘s informal count “showed that 22 House Republicans say they will vote no on the measure, four leaning no, and six undecided,” which would be 26 “no” or leaning “no,” meaning that Boehner is now three votes short of the majority 218 needed for passage.

Nobody ever asks my advice on things like this, but if I was in Boehner’s shoes, I’d say, “Damn the torpedoes: Call the vote!”

It would be better to have the vote and lose it, than to sit around until midnight begging for votes.

And if Boehner loses the vote? Offer his resignation. Immediately.

Because if you can’t get a majority on a key bill like this, your leadership is meaningless.

Call the vote. Win or lose. Go all in, Boehner.

UPDATE 8:15 p.m. ET: Another source on Capitol Hill says they’re currently in “limbo,” expecting to hear by 9 p.m. whether or not there will be a vote tonight. The latest word now is that 25 House Republicans are either “no” votes or leaning toward “no” — which would put Boehner two votes short of a majority for passage.

Getting in touch with my inner cynic, I guess this means that staff are busy putting earmarks into the bill. Somebody’s district is gonna get a new post office or a freeway off-ramp out of this deal, or else an aspiring senator is going to get an extra $20,000 for his 2012 campaign.

UPDATE 9:05 p.m. ET: Still no word on whether they’ll actually have the vote tonight. Moneyrunner comments:

I just watched Special Report with Brett Baier and both Stephen Hayes and Charles Krauthammer – who I admire – are insisting that if Republicans pass the bill that Speaker Boehner crafted they will be in a strong position at the negotiating table.
I have to admit that I need a lot of things explained to me when something is not glaringly obvious but I kept asking: “Why?”

Let me say this: If all you know about what’s happening is what you hear on cable-TV news, you’re probably going to be surprised when you find out — tomorrow, next week, next month — what was actually happening behind the scenes.

Whatever your opinion about this bill, don’t let yourself get worked up into a tizzy by what a bunch of talking heads are saying on TV. They get paid to pretend that we’re on the verge of the Apocalypse. Nobody’s paying you to believe them, so keep your powder dry.

Linked by That Mr. G Guy — thanks!

UPDATE 9:18 p.m. ET: OK, now the word is, they’re going to vote some time tonight, but we don’t know when yet, and it is alleged that they don’t even know whether they’ve got the votes to pass the doggone thing. When they go to a roll-call without a complete whip-count — i.e., the result still anybody’s guess — that’s when the going gets weird, and the weird turn pro.

UPDATE 7:25 p.m. ET: While we wait to find out exactly what’s going to happen tonight — will the House vote on the debt-ceiling bill or not? does Boehner have the votes to pass it? — we have a sort of cryptic message to GOP House freshmen from Sarah Palin:

Today I re-read the open letter I wrote to Republican Freshman Members of Congress in November 2010, just days after they were ushered into office in an historic landslide victory due in large part to the activism of commonsense patriots who are considered part of the Tea Party movement. I respectfully ask these GOP Freshman to re-read this letter and remember us “little people” who believed in them, donated to their campaigns, spent hours tirelessly volunteering for them, and trusted them with our votes. This new wave of public servants may recall that they were sent to D.C. for such a time as this.

What does she mean by that? Dunno. But “for such a time as this” is a quote from the Bible (Esther 4:14). Maybe it’s a code word, the secret Mama Grizzly signal or something.

And “for such a time as this,” my sources on the Hill are supposed to be answering their cell phones. IKWIMAITYD.

Please excuse the non-chronological sequence of the updates tonight, but I suppose that conveys as well as anything what a chaotic whirlwind has descended on Capitol Hill.

UPDATE 7:45 p.m. ET: Politicon links — thanks! — and also links to The Hill‘s whip count, which reports 24 Republican “no” votes. Ace of Spades notes that “some ‘long-standing’ conservative members” are reported among the “no” votes.

Linked by Mangy Redbone Hound — thanks!

UPDATE 6 p.m. ET: House Speaker John Boehner postponed the vote mere minutes before the roll call was scheduled to begin.

UPDATE 6:20 p.m. ET: It’s complete madness on Capitol Hill, folks. One GOP staffer says they got the news about the delay via an e-mail sent out by the Democrat whip team. Meanwhile, they’ve heard nothing from Republican whip, Kevin McCarthy, who is said to be still twisting arms to get votes for the Speaker’s bill.

And here’s the scary thing: McCarthy was the head of the GOP’s “Young Guns” candidate recruitment program in the 2010 mid-terms. There are freshmen who owe McCarthy big-time, so if the vote had to be delayed because he can’t promise 218 . . . Dude.

So it’s a total clusterfark in the GOP caucus at this point, although they still expect to have a vote tonight. But they’re now relying on media reports to tell them what the hell is going on with their own Republican leadership.

UPDATE 6:30 p.m. ET: Just to let you know I’m not kidding you about Republicans having to get information from media reports, one of my best Hill sources e-mailed me Major Garrett’s story from National Journal:

Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, is delaying the House vote on his plan to cut the deficit, Republican and Democratic sources told National Journal on Thursday. Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s office said the vote would still take place later in the evening.
A Democratic source said only that Boehner was pushing back the vote. A senior Republican source said the House speaker, who was facing opposition in his caucus, had “delayed” the vote.
“The vote will be this evening,” said a spokesman for Cantor’s office.

You see what I’m talking about here?

A. Democrats know what Boehner’s doing before Republicans know what Boehner’s doing; and
B. Republicans don’t find out until it’s reported in the media.

Looks like I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.

UPDATE 6:45 p.m. ET: Hot Air’s got the story headlined as “BOEHNERGEDDON” — Allahpundit doing his usual “Link Everybody Except Stacy” round-up — so I’m grateful to Don Surber, Bob Belvedere, The Rhetorican and The Lonely Conservative for their linkage.

If you’re a blogger hoping to get linked at Hot Air, never bother to do any original reporting, because Allah hates bloggers who do reporting.

PREVIOUSLY (5:05 p.m. ET): (Original headline was “BREAKING: House Roll Call on Boehner Bill Expected to Begin at 5:45 p.m. ET”)

So says my source on Capitol Hill. Love it or hate it, House GOP leaders are twisting every arm to pass it. We’ll have complete updated coverage here, of course, but I wanted to share this video of Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-N.C.) announcing her support of the bill:

Few freshmen in Congress can rival Ellmers’s credentials as the total Tea Party conservative, so her support of the bill is highly significant.

BTW, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped another 61 points today. I blame Harry Reid.

UPDATE 5:45 p.m. ET (Smitty): Via iOwnTheWorld, Priceless Princess Pelosi:

“What we’re trying to do is save the world from the Republican budget. We’re trying to save life on this planet as we know it today.”

Thanks, lady. Had you condescended to budget when you were running matters, your remarks wouldn’t resemble something the World’s Youngest Blogger just did.


Bad News, America: NASCAR Is Now Allowing French-Canadian Drivers …

… Good news? She’s a smokin’ hot brunette:

Next month, Quebec native Maryeve Dufault will attempt to qualify for the NASCAR Nationwide Series NAPA Auto Parts 200. The race will be Saturday, August 20th at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve road course in Montreal. This will be Dufault’s first race in the Nationwide series.
Dufault, 29, presently drives for Tony Marks Racing in the ARCA series, having competed in ten of the eleven races held thus far in 2011. Her best finish is tenth in the Messina Wildlife Animal Stopper 150 this past June at Chicagoland Speedway. . . .

Read the rest by Jerry Wilson at the Examiner.

The xenopobic fear and loathing of foreigners that inspires my anti-immigrant policy has one exception: “Don’t deport the hotties!”