Good News: Democrats Are Worried

People keep telling me their predictions about the election, and I don’t want to hear them. I have done the Electoral College arithmetic and know that it is easily possible for President Trump to win, even if it’s going to be close and we might have to wait for late returns.

More than that, however, I’ve reached my Zen of pessimistic calm, as I said Wednesday: “Bleak hopelessness is true objectivity.” Being convinced we are utterly doomed is a source of tranquility.

Democrats are now suffering an agony of fear. Four more years of Trump? No, they can’t handle that. It’s driving them to sheer panic:

Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state.
No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins [in Miami] to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.

You can read the whole thing. There are other omens of a possible miracle victory for Trump, including a Rasmussen poll that indicates Trump may get 31% — THIRTY-ONE PERCENT! — of the black vote.

But don’t give me hope. I’m more comfortable with despair, especially as I watch Democrats writhe in agony during these final days before the election. Besides, how bad could it possibly be?

Twelve years ago, when the Republican Party nominated John McCain as its presidential candidate, he got less than 46 percent of the popular vote and only 173 Electoral College votes. Whatever happens on Election Day this year, almost no one expects President Trump to do worse than that.
According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight poll-based prediction, we enter the final weekend before Election Day with an 89 percent likelihood that Joe Biden will win. Basically, the odds are 8-to-1 against Trump’s reelection. Yet the president’s supporters are undaunted, recalling that Silver’s final 2016 forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of being elected and yet Trump beat her in a result that broke the Democrats’ so-called “blue wall” in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Miracles can happen in politics, and Republican voters are praying for another divine intervention next week. Bombarded by a barrage of discouraging news coverage — even Fox News seems to be part of the “Landslide Joe” propaganda team now — the conservative faithful quite desperately seek omens that may portend more hopeful tidings.
Well, there’s this: Four days before the election, Joe Biden today is making a campaign trip to Minnesota, which, as Trump campaign communications chief Tim Murtaugh points out, is “a state that hasn’t gone to a Republican candidate for president since 1972.” . . .

Read the rest of my latest column at The American Spectator.




 

Ohio Is Trump Country

CRAWFORD COUNTY, Ohio
This morning I drove down to Mt. Gilead, county seat of Morrow County, and the route along Highway 61 was lined with Trump signs. The ratio of Trump to Biden signs was at least 10-to-1, if not higher. The county Republican Party headquarters in Mt. Gilead wasn’t yet open, but I got photos of their lobby through the window. It is difficult to explain to anyone who hasn’t been here how lopsidedly Republican this area is. In 2016, Trump got 72% of the vote in Morrow County, and 71% in neighboring Crawford County. Out of Ohio’s 88 counties, Trump won 80, with Hillary’s votes concentrated in urban areas — Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Toledo, etc. — and a few suburban areas like Lorain County (which also includes Oberlin College).

The contrast between rural and small-town Ohio and our nation’s big cities is an essential fact of the political divide in America. Folks here are not any kind of radical “right-wing,” they’re just ordinary hard-working people who enjoy the tranquil pleasures of country life, and thus have little in common with the decadent bicoastal urban elites.

Trump got 52% of the vote in Ohio against Hillary four years ago. He will almost certainly score a solid majority here for his re-election.




 

Can Savannah Guthrie Prove Democrats Are NOT a Satanic Pedophile Ring?

 

Has anyone asked Joe Biden whether he’s against pedophilia? Do you think it’s a coincidence the media haven’t asked him about this?

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE: While we’re denouncing, let me ask you about QAnon. It is this theory that Democrats are a satanic pedophile ring, and that you are the savior of that. Now, can you just once and for all state that that is completely not true?
DONALD TRUMP: So–
SAVANNAH GUTHRIE: Can you disavow QAnon in its entirety?
DONALD TRUMP: I know nothing about QAnon.
SAVANNAH GUTHRIE: I just told you.
DONALD TRUMP: I know very little– you told me, but what you tell me doesn’t necessarily make it fact. I hate to say that. I know nothing about it. I do know they are very much against pedophilia, they fight it very hard. But I know nothing about it.

Why is it that only Trump is ever asked to denounce stuff like this? All kinds of crazy ideas are rampant among Joe Biden’s supporters, but because the media are all Democrats, Biden is never asked to repudiate various toxic elements of the Democratic Party constituency.

While I haven’t paid much attention to QAnon, my understanding is that they were rather more specific in their accusations. In particular, they named former Hillary Clinton campaign adviser John Podesta as being implicated in a sex-trafficking conspiracy. That’s where the Comet Ping Pong angle arose, and if you will recall, this “PizzaGate” theory was not only inspired by the hacking of Podesta’s emails, but also by the fact — not a theory, but a fact — that Clinton aide Huma Abedin was married to ex-congressman Anthony Weiner. In September 2016, it was learned that Weiner had been “sexting” with a 15-year-old North Carolina girl.

The FBI’s seizure of Weiner’s laptop led to the discovery of evidence relevant to Hillary’s email scandal. So the idea that Democrats are hiding pedophilia-related secrets is not really so far-fetched, is it?

What else might lend credibility to QAnon? Well, there’s the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, and the sinister activities of Hollywood pedophiles, among other things. There is clear evidence of the Epstein-Clinton connection, and everybody knows Hollywood is a Democrat-controlled town, so there are plenty of dots there that might seem connected.

And can we talk about Creepy Uncle Joe?

 

Look, I can’t prove that Joe Biden is part of a Satanic Pedophile Ring. On the other hand, Savannah Guthrie can’t prove he’s not.




 

‘Well, We Just Have to Win Then’

Politics is not about debate. Politics isn’t about compromise. It is not about “image.” Ultimately, politics is about power.

This is something Republicans have a habit of forgetting. Because the Republican Party represents the respectable middle class, its leaders tend to be concerned with bourgeois respectability, an encumbrance which does not inhibit Democrats. Having assembled a coalition of the aggrieved and impoverished — including criminals, drug addicts, perverts and decadent intellectuals — Democrats unapologetically advocate the selfish interests of their constituent groups, whereas Republicans seem almost embarrassed by their own middle-class supporters.

Republicans have long complained about how Democrats are able to get away with things that no Republican would even dare attempt. The way Democrats turn Supreme Court confirmation hearings into bizarre “show trial” circuses — first with Brett Kavanaugh, now with Amy Coney Barrett, continuing a tradition that dates back to the original “Borking” — is an example of this disparity. Never have Republicans done to a Democratic nominee what Democrats routinely do to GOP nominees. Democrats can get away with this because most of the media (being decadent intellectuals) are part of their coalition, and can be trusted to apply the desired partisan “spin” to these political dramas.

Democrats are not embarrassed about seeking power, and make no apologies about wielding power. They constantly accuse Republicans of authoritarian ambitions, Democrats openly act in dictatorial manner whenever they obtain power. Just look at the way Democratic governors like Andrew Cuomo, Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom have imposed draconian policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

This morning, I made the mistake of turning up the sound on my office TV, and endured Sen. Diane Feinstein’s questioning of Judge Barrett. A more shameless exercise in emotional pandering could scarcely be imagined, and I turned down the sound before Feinstein finished, rather than to let this spectacle further disturb my mind.

 

What we are witnessing, not only in these Senate hearings, but on a daily basis in the presidential campaign, is a remorseless crusade by Democrats in pursuit of power. Anyone claiming to be a conservative must oppose this, and I cannot imagine how David French, Rick Wilson, et al., justify their project of sabotaging the Republican opposition, merely because of their personal distaste for President Trump.

There’s an old country saying, “Any stick to beat a mad dog,” which is to say, in an emergency (e.g., attacked by a rabid animal) one does not hesitate to use whatever weapon comes to hand in self-defense. Such is our case now, and as we see the Democrats foaming at the mouth and snarling with bared fangs, we ought to be grateful to Trump for volunteering as the stick with which we beat these dangerous beasts.

What a lot of people don’t understand about me is that I was born and raised a Democrat, in a place and time where no one ever had to apologize for being a Democrat. In the 1990s — during the first term of Bill Clinton — I found myself disgusted by Clinton’s cruel betrayal of the loyalty of Democrats like me. Pandering to the “soccer mom” vote, Clinton signed into law the 1994 crime bill that included a ban on so-called “assault weapons” (certain semi-automatic rifles which were really not assault weapons at all). Never could I have imagined that a Democratic president, whom I had vocally supported in his 1992 campaign, would so casually infringe our Second Amendment rights. And buddy, that was it for me. My eyes were suddenly opened to the reality that the party to which I had given my loyalty did not reciprocate that loyalty. You don’t get a second chance to stab me in the back.

Getting ripped off, sold out and fucked over by Bill Clinton had a rather profound effect on my worldview. Mainly, it taught me to be deeply cynical about politics. People who claim to be our political “leaders” are all too often only in it for themselves — wealth, status, the aggrandizement of their own egos — and this is true also of most of the pundits and party operatives who cluster around politics. Does anyone believe that Reed Galen, John Weaver or any of the other scoundrels at The Lincoln Project are motivated by lofty ideals? Did any of that rotten #NeverTrump crew ever actually have any respect for Republican voters?

Well, I started writing this with a particular point in mind and see that I’ve digressed too far on that detour. My point is that our current crisis ought to teach conservatives a thing or two about why the Republican Party has been losing for so long. Democrats understand politics as an expression of power in a way that Republicans do not. Think back to the doomstruck debacle of 2008 John McCain campaign. Or think about the way the GOP establishment forced Mitt Romney down the throats of Republican primary voters. Good-bye to all that, and good riddance.

In 1998, the Lewinsky scandal threatened to destroy Bill Clinton’s presidency. The day the scandal broke, Clinton got a call in the White House from his former campaign adviser Dick Morris:

The consultant testified that he assured the President that “there’s a great capacity for forgiveness in this country, and you should consider tapping into it.”
“But what about the legal thing?” Morris says Clinton replied. “You know, Starr and perjury and all?” Clinton had already denied the affair in his Jones deposition, but, Morris says, the President admitted to him that “with this girl I just slipped up.”
Morris says he took a poll on the voters’ willingness to forgive confessed adultery. He phoned back a few hours later to tell Clinton that voters would forgive adultery “but not perjury or obstruction of justice.” In other words, it was already too late. Morris testified that Clinton said, “Well, we just have to win then.”

See my point? That backstabbing swindler knew what politics is really about. There are no participation trophies for second place in politics. You either win, or you go home. What we are facing, with three weeks to go until Election Day, is either victory or defeat. And you can be sure that if Democrats win, they will not be merciful toward their enemies. There will be no olive branches offered to their vanquished foes.

We shall be trampled down, trodden under, punished and humiliated in a vindictive partisan witch hunt against all the “deplorables” who prevented Hillary from becoming president. If Trump is defeated, there will be very little remaining hope that we can prevent Democrats from turning America into a one-party state, where opposition will be practically impossible, and dissent will be silenced. We can expect no assistance from the useful idiots who climbed aboard the Evan McMullin bandwagon four years ago. We are at coffin corner, my friends.

“Well, we just have to win then.”

Selah.




 

Trump Tests Positive for COVID-19

 

Late Thursday, the news broke that top aide Hope Hicks had tested positive for COVID-19 after exhibiting symptoms. Because Hicks had traveled on Air Force One during President Trump’s Cleveland trip, this raised concerns and, shortly after midnight, it was confirmed that both the President and First Lady had also tested positive. We don’t know how this happened. Hicks was known to be quite a fanatic about wearing masks, and Trump has been very careful about social distancing and, while other people in the White House have previously caught the virus, there had been strict precautions to protect the president.

Obviously, this will have an impact on the campaign:

White House Physician Sean Conley announced in a letter he expected President Donald Trump to continue carrying out his duties as president, despite testing positive for the coronavirus.
“Rest assured I expect the President to continue carrying out his duties without disruption while recovering, and I will keep you updated on any future developments,” U.S. Navy Commander physician Sean Conley wrote in a letter released to reporters.
The letter from Trump’s physician did not stop media outlets from speculating about the succession of power and whether Trump should even remain on the ballot.
“If he becomes sick, it could raise questions about whether he should remain on the ballot at all,” the New York Times wrote on Friday morning. CNN also spent time speculating about the succession of power as the president had tested positive.
The White House updated the daily schedule early Friday to note the president would host a phone call on COVID-19 support to vulnerable seniors on Friday at 12:15 p.m. and cancel a rally in Florida that he had scheduled for the day.
Vice President Mike Pence did not announce any test results on Friday, but issued a statement confirming he was praying for the president and the first lady’s recovery.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would fall second in line in presidential succession, a fact many on the left celebrated.

Well, “thoughts and prayers,” eh?

UPDATE: Oh, of course:

You stay classy, Democrats!

UPDATE II: Paranoia will destroy ya:




 

@RealDonaldTrump: Still #Winning

 

When your enemies keep breaking the law to attack you, we can conclude that your enemies are bad people:

The New York Times published details Sunday of what it claimed were President Donald Trump’s tax returns to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), going back more than two decades, showing “chronic losses and years of tax avoidance,” it said. . . .
The Times story, if based on authentic documents, appears to debunk several conspiracy theories held by Democrats for years. The tax returns do not [show] “any previously unreported connections to Russia,” the Times reports. Moreover, the Times story appears to confirm Trump’s claim — long treated as an excuse by Democrats — that he is under audit by the IRS. And the Times could not find “any itemized payments to Mr. Cohen,” ostensibly the subject of the New York investigation. . . .
It is illegal for the IRS to leak the personal tax returns of any individual. The Times is guarding its sources closely.

Yesterday, Trump had a few comments:

It’s fake news. It’s totally fake news. Made up. Fake.

The New York Times has been so wrong for so long.




 

Trump Getting 50% of the Catholic Vote

The abortion issue is hurting Biden:

Catholic voters have an opportunity in November to help elect only the second Catholic president in U.S. history in former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, but already the more devout followers are lining up behind President Trump.
Gone are the days when nearly 80% of Catholic voters united to push Irish-Catholic Democrat John F. Kennedy into the White House in 1960. Catholic voters today are split on the 2020 candidates, even though Mr. Biden is a lifelong Mass-attending Catholic, and Mr. Trump is a Presbyterian.
A Pew Research Center poll released last month found that 50% of registered Catholic voters plan to vote for Mr. Trump, while 49% back Mr. Biden.
“The Catholic vote is not a monolithic vote in America,” said Brian Burch, president of the conservative CatholicVote. “We’ve moved away from that kind of tribal, if-he’s-a-Catholic-therefore-I-trust-him view. There are other reasons inside our own church for that as well. It’s not enough to merely say you’re Catholic.”
While Mr. Biden is known for his regular church attendance — he and his wife Jill Biden worship at St. Joseph on the Brandywine in Greenville, Delaware — polls show his supporters within the church tend to be less fastidious in their Sunday habits.
“The more you go to Mass and the more you self-describe as following the church’s teachings, the more likely you are to be voting for Trump,” said EWTN executive editor Matthew Bunson. “If you go to Mass less often and disagree with key teachings, you’re more likely to support Biden.”
About 18% of Catholics say they accept all the church’s teachings, versus 38% who say they accept most of them, and 29% who say they do not accept some key teachings, according to a February EWTN News/RealClearOpinion poll.
“Among Catholics who do practice the faith in a substantive way, yes, there’s been a dramatic shift over the last several decades away from the Democratic Party and into the Republican Party, and I think it’s been especially pronounced under President Trump,” Mr. Burch said.
He cited not only the abortion issue, on which Mr. Trump has been widely described as the most pro-life president ever, but his appeals to “this notion of the importance of place, of country, of patriotism, of family, of meaningful work,” as well as his political grit in the face of opposition.
“His policies are demonstrative proof of his pro-life credentials, but more important, and I increasingly hear this from Catholics, are his fortitude and courage,” Mr. Burch said. “Many Republican administrations in the past have paid lip service to the issue, and while they might be sympathetic to our cause, when things got difficult, they abandoned ship.”
Both camps are making plays for Catholic voters, and for good reason: Not only do they make up 22% of the U.S. electorate, but in nine of the last 10 presidential elections, Catholics voted with the winner, Mr. Bunson said.

Most Americans who identify as “Catholic” are what might be called cultural Catholics — usually people of Irish, Italian or Polish ancestry — who don’t regularly attend services and certainly don’t practice Catholic teachings, or otherwise they’d have six or eight kids. The fact that self-identified Catholic women do not, on average, have significantly more children than other American women tells you all you need to know about the decline of faith. If religious belief does not manifest itself as a behavioral difference from non-believers, then the salt has lost its savour.

To be pro-life is not merely to be anti-abortion. Catholic teaching explicitly condemns artificial contraception, and it is therefore to be expected that self-described Catholics would have far more numerous offspring than non-Catholics. The self-evident failure of Catholics in America to “practice what they preach” is at least as much of a scandal as pedophile priests, and these two scandals are not unrelated. Both are evidence of institutional corruption and being “conformed to this world.”




 

‘I Also Hope to Keep a Steady High’

 

Worrying about politics is a waste of time, and nobody who knew me when I was in college could ever have imagined that I would grow up to become a political journalist, wasting my time this way.

My perspective on the political scene is idiosyncratic, simply because most people in this racket have been political junkies all their lives. They came to Washington right out of college, and wish nothing more than to be taken seriously as pundits, capable of prognosticating future outcomes. In contrast, I left college with the career goal of becoming a rock star, jammed in bands for a while, then stumbled into a newspaper career three years later, worked for years as a sports editor, and didn’t make it to D.C. until I was 38 years old, married with three kids.

It happened the other day (thank you, YouTube algorithm) that I started watching old videos of the jazz-rock band Chicago. Did you know that Chicago’s guitarist Terry Kath was Jimi Hendrix’s favorite guitarist? To listen to Kath play on “25 or 6 to 4” is to be amazed, and it’s a pity that Kath (who died tragically in 1978) is so seldom mentioned among the rock-and-roll greats. Kath could also sing like Ray Charles, a distinctive bluesy baritone, and as I watched videos of Chicago in early concerts, I remembered one of my old favorites of theirs, “Dialogue (Part I & II)” in which Kath trades lyrical lines with Peter Cetera:

Are you optimistic
About the way things are going?

No, I never ever think of it at all.

Don’t you ever worry
When you see what’s going down?

Well, I try to mind my business,
That is, no business at all.

When it’s time to function
As a feeling human being,
Will your Bachelor of Arts help you get by?

I hope to study further,
A few more years or so.
I also hope to keep a steady high

Such was my youthful attitude: “Don’t bum me out, man.”

You can perhaps see why I’ve always been mystified by these ultra-serious young “activist” types, crusading against social injustice all over the Internet when they’re not busy rioting in the streets. Far be it from me, a responsible father and grandfather, to encourage young people to pursue psychedelic hedonism as a way of life, but in some ways that would be preferable to becoming a “social justice warrior.”

These cynical ruminations were inspired not just by old Chicago songs, but also by the realization that the past three months of riots started because George Floyd overdosed on fentanyl.

 

Has any attempt to “keep a steady high” ever backfired so disastrously? Documents made public last week show the medical examiner found Floyd had “a fatal level of fentanyl under normal circumstances,” and bodycam videos show Floyd complaining “I can’t breathe” before the officers put him on the ground. In fact, the reason Floyd was on the ground was because he refused to let officers put him in the back of the police car, struggling and complaining of COVID and claustrophobia. Police, recognizing his “excited delirium” as evidence of a drug overdose, called an ambulance, then held him on the ground while they waited for the ambulance to arrive. There was no “systemic racism” involved, nor can the charges of murder against the officers be justified.

Well, I try to mind my business,
That is, no business at all.

Do you see the relevance here? The 1970s were a decade when there was a lot to be depressed or angry about, if you cared to pay attention to what was happening in the world. So not caring — complete cynicism — became a very widespread attitude. Just mind your own business and, like the song said, “try to keep a steady high.” Also, if you’re going to freak out on drugs, try not to do it on a city sidewalk after you’ve just been caught attempting to pass a counterfeit $20 bill.

Am I “optimistic about the way things are going”? Well, it is a hazard of my profession that I can’t simply ignore how things are going, and I hesitate to offer predictions, however . . .

How bad do things look for Joe Biden’s campaign right now? Consider this: Democrats are worried about Minnesota, a state no Republican presidential candidate has carried since Richard Nixon’s 1972 landslide. Yet polls show President Trump gaining ground in Minnesota, and Democrats are worried because they haven’t seen any appearances by Biden or his running mate Kamala Harris. “Why aren’t they here?” one Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party official told Minnesota Public Radio last week. “We need to hear from them. We need to see their presence on the ground.”
Biden’s peril in Minnesota is in many ways emblematic of everything that’s gone wrong for Democrats in this campaign. While the Real Clear Politics average of Minnesota polls still shows Biden leading Trump by more than five points, a poll by Emerson College earlier this month had Trump within three points, and a poll by the GOP-affiliated Trafalgar Group two weeks ago showed a tie in Minnesota. How could a state that twice gave majorities to Barack Obama, a state that not even Ronald Reagan could win in his 1984 landslide, be in play for Trump this year? Well, in a word, riots. . . .

Read the rest of my latest column at The American Spectator.

UPDATE: Welcome, Instapundit readers!

Did I mention that Adam Schiff is blaming Russia for the riots?