Good News: Democrats Are Worried

People keep telling me their predictions about the election, and I don’t want to hear them. I have done the Electoral College arithmetic and know that it is easily possible for President Trump to win, even if it’s going to be close and we might have to wait for late returns.

More than that, however, I’ve reached my Zen of pessimistic calm, as I said Wednesday: “Bleak hopelessness is true objectivity.” Being convinced we are utterly doomed is a source of tranquility.

Democrats are now suffering an agony of fear. Four more years of Trump? No, they can’t handle that. It’s driving them to sheer panic:

Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state.
No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins [in Miami] to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.

You can read the whole thing. There are other omens of a possible miracle victory for Trump, including a Rasmussen poll that indicates Trump may get 31% — THIRTY-ONE PERCENT! — of the black vote.

But don’t give me hope. I’m more comfortable with despair, especially as I watch Democrats writhe in agony during these final days before the election. Besides, how bad could it possibly be?

Twelve years ago, when the Republican Party nominated John McCain as its presidential candidate, he got less than 46 percent of the popular vote and only 173 Electoral College votes. Whatever happens on Election Day this year, almost no one expects President Trump to do worse than that.
According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight poll-based prediction, we enter the final weekend before Election Day with an 89 percent likelihood that Joe Biden will win. Basically, the odds are 8-to-1 against Trump’s reelection. Yet the president’s supporters are undaunted, recalling that Silver’s final 2016 forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of being elected and yet Trump beat her in a result that broke the Democrats’ so-called “blue wall” in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Miracles can happen in politics, and Republican voters are praying for another divine intervention next week. Bombarded by a barrage of discouraging news coverage — even Fox News seems to be part of the “Landslide Joe” propaganda team now — the conservative faithful quite desperately seek omens that may portend more hopeful tidings.
Well, there’s this: Four days before the election, Joe Biden today is making a campaign trip to Minnesota, which, as Trump campaign communications chief Tim Murtaugh points out, is “a state that hasn’t gone to a Republican candidate for president since 1972.” . . .

Read the rest of my latest column at The American Spectator.




 

Is This White Privilege? Florida Lunatic Stabs Cop in the Neck, Doesn’t Get Shot

 

When I watched the video of this incident, it bothered me:

A 21-year-old man stabbed a Hillsborough County Sheriff’s deputy in the neck [Oct. 11], according to police.
Deputy Charles Williams was hospitalized with a cut on his neck and released [Oct. 12] morning, the Sheriff’s Office said in a news release.
The man accused of stabbing him, Nicholas Furgason, faces charges of attempted felony murder of a law enforcement officer, resisting an officer with violence and resisting an officer without violence
Deputies responded about 12:40 p.m. [Oct. 11] to a home in Fishhawk Ranch in Lithia, according to the news release. They were called there to help workers at Gracepoint, a Tampa behavioral healthcare provider, with an involuntary mental health evaluation on Furgason.
Furgason at first cooperated with deputies and Gracepoint staff, according to the Sheriff’s Office. After about an hour of discussion, medical officials decided they would admit Furgason to Gracepoint under the Baker Act, a Florida law that allows for the involuntary commitment of someone believed to be a harm to themselves or others.
Upon learning he would be going to Gracepoint, deputies said Furgason ran away into a wooded area. Williams ran after him while another deputy, Nicholas Cruz, followed behind in a marked patrol cruiser.
Williams caught up to Furgason and, according to the Sheriff’s Office, “used deescalation techniques” to calm Furgason down. The Sheriff’s Office released body camera footage that begins with the deputy facing Furgason on a paved trail in the woods.
“Why are you running, dude?” the deputy asks him. Furgason doesn’t answer.
“Are you scared?” the deputy asks.
“Yeah,” Furgason says.
Williams then explains that Furgason isn’t in trouble, but he has to put him in handcuffs to keep him from running away again. He approaches Furgason and grabs his left arm. Then, the video shows Furgason jerking toward the deputy and the deputy can be heard screaming.
According to the Sheriff’s Office, Furgason stabbed Williams in the neck with a knife. Furgason ran away, and the deputy followed, yelling at him to stop. The body camera video shows him pointing his gun toward Furgason and yelling into his radio that he was stabbed in the neck.
Williams then pulled out his Taser and got close enough to Furgason to use it. Williams and Cruz detained Furgason, and Williams applied gauze to his wound. Later in the body camera video, deputies picked up what appeared to be a small hunting knife from the ground beside Furgason.
Furgason was booked into the Falkenburg Road Jail on Sunday evening. He remained there Monday evening in lieu of $27,500 bail, according to jail records.

Watch the video:

 

Honestly, if I was the sheriff, I’d call this a failure. At a time when law enforcement is under intense scrutiny for shooting black suspects, cops need to shoot more white suspects, just to even the score.

White lunatic stabs a cop? Bang, bang. Dead lunatic.

“Stacy, you should have more compassion for crazy people. After all, you’re pretty crazy yourself.” True, but I never stabbed a cop.

The more I think about this kind of “social justice” policy, the more I like it. If cops just start routinely shooting white criminals, it creates a built-in defense against your Ben Crump types whenever a black suspect gets shot. They can’t claim your officers used “racial profiling” or “excessive force” against a black suspect if your department shot six or seven white perps last week. If “excessive force” becomes your standard policy, who’s to say what “excessive” means? You’re moving the Overton Window, see?

Forget about “de-escalation techniques.” Instead, train your officers to escalate every arrest into a guns-drawn standoff, if possible. Like, you pull somebody over for a traffic violation and they give you some attitude, whip out the pistol: “Hands up! Step out of the car!” And if they make one wrong move, blast ’em full of holes. They gotta respect the badge.

What gets me about this lunatic in Florida is, he didn’t show gratitude toward the deputy. The Baker Act is your friend. A three-day holiday in the nuthouse, that’s just what these kooks need, and they should be grateful for it. But you’re gonna stab a cop? That’s the difference between the Baker Act and getting yourself a permanent dirt nap.

Crazy People Are Dangerous.




 

Florida Man Charged With Vote Fraud

 

But the media told me this never happens:

A 62-year-old Bradenton man who says he wanted to “test the system” has been arrested on a voter fraud charge after he tried to obtain a mail-in ballot for his late wife, according to the Manatee County Sheriff’s Office.
The election supervisor’s office contacted the sheriff’s office Sept. 17, after receiving a mail-ballot request in the name of a woman who has been dead for about two years.
Supervisor of Elections Mike Bennett said his staff reviews the voter rolls for each mail-in ballot request and it was discovered the woman was deceased. They then determined that Larry Wiggins forged his late wife’s name on the ballot request.
Wiggins told deputies that he was “testing the system to see if worked.”
Bennett said indeed it does.
“Our message is that the Manatee County Supervisor of Elections will prosecute any attempt at voter fraud. If you are caught, we are committed to prosecute,” Bennett said.
Bennett said such attempts are rare in Manatee County.
Bennett said it could not be determined who Wiggins was supporting in the Nov. 3 election because the ballots were never sent after realizing one of the request was fraudulent.
According to the sheriff’s office, detectives were able to develop probable cause based on the evidence and Wiggins admitting to what he had done.
On Sept. 22, the case was sent to the state attorney’s office, which on Monday agreed to prosecute. Wiggins was arrested at his home without incident and booked into the Manatee County jail on Thursday.

Just another Democrat, seeking to enfranchise the dead.




 

States Joe Biden Won’t Win

One of the ways the media mislead America is with polls. The old phrase, “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” should be amended to include public opinion polls, especially national polls in presidential campaigns. To state the fact as simply as possible, national polls are irrevelant in terms of projecting the final result, because what actually matters is the Electoral College. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but her national margin (about 2.9 million votes) was less than her margin in California alone (about 4.3 million votes). In other words, the massive pro-Clinton advantage in California created a lopsided margin nationwide. Hillary got 8.8 million votes in California, 4.6 million in New York, and 3.1 million votes in Illinois. These three states thus accounted for nearly 25% of Clinton’s total vote (65.9 million). Her combined margin over Trump in these states was 7 million. Her margin of victory in California was about 30 percentage points, 22.5 points in New York, and 17 points in Illinois. If you’re looking at national polls, you see, the horse-race number doesn’t reflect how the Electoral College turns out. It doesn’t matter if a presidential candidate wins Florida by a 1-point margin or a 30-point margin, the winner still gets all the Electoral College votes in Florida.

So the alleged “fact” that Joe Biden leads President Trump by 7.1 points in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls is not only absurd (no serious political observer believes Biden will win by such a landslide margin), but it is also irrelevant. The election will be decided in a comparative handful of “swing” states, and what it is important is to identify the states that actually are up for grabs this year.

Of course, it’s still eight weeks to go until Election Day, we don’t actually know which way the momentum might shift. One campaign or the other could collapse between now and Nov. 3, or events outside the campaigns could shift the race, so it is impossible to predict outcomes. As things stand today, however, you can scratch Iowa from the list of so-called “battleground” states. Iowa went for Obama twice, but it’s Trump Country now, and the Biden campaign isn’t wasting any energy there.

What about Georgia? Because Stacey Abrams came so close two years ago — a “high tide” year for Democrats — some have tried to claim that Georgia is a battleground. Bullshit. The latest poll has Trump leading by 7 points in Georgia, and it probably won’t be that close.

North Carolina? In late July, the RCP average of North Carolina polls had Biden up by nearly 5 points, but it’s now virtually tied and trending toward Trump. I never believed Biden had much chance in North Carolina, and am dubious of those who call it a “battleground.” The Antifa riots have probably hurt Biden badly there, and I’d be surprised if it’s even close. On the other hand, I am worried about Ohio. Biden has led 8 of the last 10 polls there, and although the RCP average for Ohio has Biden leading by less than 3 points (margin of error territory), clearly Trump has a fight on his hands there. This is the one I’ll be watching most closely. Whoever wins Ohio will be president.

What about Florida? I’ve got family there — in a heavily Republican area, full of rich retirees — and Trump was leading Florida in the spring before his numbers took a dip because of COVID-19, but he’s recovered his momentum now. The latest Florida poll has it tied, and the most recent Quinnipiac poll showed Biden had lost 10 points in the span of barely a month. The reasons for that sudden meltdown are almost certainly due to (a) the lousy Democratic convention performance, and (b) the ongoing “mostly peaceful protests.” You know who doesn’t want to hear a lot of angry lectures about “systemic racism” in America? Cubans.

Cubans have a low tolerance for that crap, and they sure as heck don’t want to hear any of your Marxist revolutionary nonsense:

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has seemingly lost his advantage over President Trump in the crucial swing state of Florida, an NBC News/Marist poll released Tuesday found. A lot of that shift seemingly stems from Florida’s Latino voters, who have gone from resoundingly supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to actually tipping in Trump’s favor this time around, the poll showed.
Less than two months before election day, Biden and Trump are tied in Florida with 48 percent support among likely Florida voters. Biden had previously pulled as much as a 13-point lead over Trump in Florida. That dip comes as a majority of Latino respondents say they’re voting for Trump over Biden, 50-46 percent; Latino voters went for Clinton 62-35 in 2016.
A poll from the Miami Herald and Bendixen & Amandi International backed up NBC News’ findings, at least in Miami-Dade County. Biden still has a strong advantage, 55-38 percent, in the heavily Democratic part of the state, the Tuesday poll found. But it’s not the best news considering Clinton won that county by 30 points in 2016 and still lost the state by 1.2 points. In addition, the Miami Herald poll found Trump and Biden are splitting Hispanic voters, 47-46 . . .

Look, I don’t want to call this too early. When you see a sudden shift in polls, as we are witnessing in Florida, it’s best not to trust it automatically. If the shift is real, it will be reflected in more polls during the coming week or two, so the smart thing to do is watch and wait. This time next week, we should have a better idea of where things stand in Florida, but if Trump has truly gained a decisive advantage there — if Florida is now reliably Trump Country — it’s going to be very difficult for Biden to get to 270 Electoral College votes.




 

Police Chief: ‘When You Point a Gun at Officers, Expect to Get Shot’

 

OK, folks, I hereby officially pronounce the “Police Activity” YouTube channel to be The Best Thing on the Internet. While I’m trying to maintain my sanity during the current campaign season — the polls are tightening, and Democrats are planning to steal the election by mail fraud — what I need is a distraction, and nothing is more soothing to my nerves than watching bodycam videos of bad guys getting shot by cops.

So there was a reported carjacking in Daytona Beach, Florida, a few months ago, and when cops showed up, the bad guy made a bad decision:

 

The suspect was lucky to survive:

Two Daytona Beach police officers shot a man who they say tried to carjack a woman at a Popeyes before pointing a rifle on them at a nearby Wawa, according to Police Chief Craig Capri.
The shooting was reported around 8:10 a.m. [May 25] near International Speedway Boulevard and U.S. 1.
Capri said the woman was at Popeyes waiting for the restaurant to open when the man tried to carjack her. She was able to get away and call for help, police said.
The man then walked down Ridgewood Avenue carrying the rifle, and officers confronted him near a Walgreens and Wawa, Carpi said.
The officers asked the man to drop the rifle, but he pointed it at them, according to Capri, who added that his officers opened fire, striking the man.
The Daytona Beach Police Department released several videos of body-worn camera footage of the shooting Monday afternoon.
The video shows the first officer get out of his patrol car and tell the man, “hey, don’t raise it.”
The officer then proceeded to take cover behind the rear passenger side of his patrol car, according to the video, and continued to tell the man to “put it down, put the rifle down.” . . .
“When you point a gun at officers, expect to get shot,” Capri said.

This is common sense, isn’t it? But common sense seems to be rare among criminals — or, as I prefer to call them, armed Democrats.

 

Say hello to Michael Anthony Harris, who won’t be able to vote for Joe Biden in November, because he made a very bad decision:

The Daytona Beach police officer shot in the chest [Aug. 29] while trying to arrest an attempted murder suspect has risked his own life, and saved those of others several times before.
Daytona Beach Police Chief Craig Capri had no hesitation Tuesday when he described Officer Dominic Besse. Capri calls him “A true hero.”
Besse responded to a Holly Hill apartment on Saturday, and when he found the suspect in a shooting in Daytona Beach two weeks before, Besse became the victim taking a bullet to his chest. Besse’s own body-worn camera recorded the shooter’s muzzle flash and the sounds of agony the officer felt when the projectile struck him.
Besse, a tactical expert, survived likely because his protective vest kept the bullet from piercing his body.
The exchange of gunfire, estimated at 50 rounds, ended with the death of the wanted gunman, 44-year-old Michael Anthony Harris.

 

More background on the recently deceased criminal:

Daytona Beach and Holly Hill police had gone to the apartment complex to arrest Harris after getting an anonymous tip he was in Unit 104, Capri said.
“We don’t believe it’s his home but we got an anonymous tip that he was there,” Capri said during a press conference Saturday night. “People are scared of him.”
Harris was sought in the shooting of a woman Aug. 18 at Travelers Inn at 850 S. Ridgewood Ave. in Daytona Beach. That woman, who was not identified by police, is recovering at Halifax Health Medical Center, Capri said.
The woman [shot in the Aug. 18 incident] called 9-1-1 around 3:38 a.m. and said she’d been shot. Police found the woman by the stairway near a room and she cried out, “help me I’ve been shot,” investigators said.
Capri said she was shot twice in the back and became unconscious before police could get a statement from her.

So he shot a woman twice in the back. More “violence against women” that feminists will never mention, for some reason . . .




 

‘Adult Entertainment’

 

Say hello to Laura Wambles of Dothan, Alabama, a/k/a “Aubrey Gold.” Two weeks after her 18th birthday, Ms. Wambles began performing in what are euphemistically called “adult entertainment” videos. She was quite busy in the field of “adult entertainment” for a couple of years:

Wambles’ Internet Adult Film Database page lists 65 credits. Wambles’ videos have been viewed over 26 million times on PornHub.

By 2017, however, Ms. Wambles seems to have exited the industry, perhaps due to a dispute with her “agent,” Sheelagh Blumberg.

Fans of “Aubrey Gold” may have wondered what ever happened to her. Well, she made news this week — where else? — in Florida:

A 23-year-old former porn star, her boyfriend and another man were charged in the death of a man found buried in a shallow grave in Florida last week, reports said.
Lauren Wambles, who goes by Aubrey Gold, was charged with being a principal to the murder of 51-year-old Raul Guillen, WTVY reported.
The body of Guillen, who had been missing since early July, was found Tuesday off a road in the city of Graceville, Florida.
While alive, Guillen was last known to be at the Graceville home of Jeremie Peters, 43, along with Wambles and her 35-year-old boyfriend, William Parker, WDHN reported, citing police.
Investigators found evidence linked to Guillen’s murder at the home of Peters, the report said.
Peters was charged with being an accessory to murder, while Parker faces an open count of murder, the reports said.
Wambles appeared in 31 adult films from 2015 to 2018, WTVY reported.

 

Permit me to say that the phrases “adult film” and “porn star” are both profoundly misleading. These are not “films,” they’re low-budget videos, and the people who consume this vile fare are not more “adult” than the rest of us; in fact they are quite immature. To describe a performer in this low-rent filth as a “star” is to attribute to them a level of wealth and fame that they certainly do not possess. Nearly all of them work under aliases, and even the most popular performers are unknown except among the perverts for whom their videos serve as mastubatory inspiration.

What sort of people work in this industry? The word “trash” is appropriate. Wambles “has been arrested at least six times since 2018” and at the time of her murder arrest, she was facing a November trial for felony drug possession. She was hanging around scum:

Ronnie Peacock, 51, and Patrick D. Howard, 36, were arrested and charged with possession of methamphetamine in unrelated cases.
While conducting an investigation into a homicide case Monday involving the murder of Raul Ambriz Guillen, a missing Dothan man, deputies executed a search warrant at 1101 Highway 171. While conducting the search, deputies observed a baggie containing methamphetamine in plain view.
A second resident residing at 1101 Highway 171, Jeremy Peters, was later arrested in connection to Guillen’s murder. . . .
Tuesday while deputies continued to investigate the homicide crime scene in the area, deputies observed Howard riding a bicycle and approaching the perimeter of the crime scene.
Deputies made contact with Howard and searched him, discovering a small bag of methamphetamine inside a plastic pill bottle.

It’s as if everyone in the vicinity was a meth head, and so we can imagine what it was that led to this murder. Hang around that kind of trash and you may end up in a shallow grave, or in prison.

“Adult entertainment,” indeed.




 

Florida Man Strikes Again

 

In the annals of American journalism, one thing is forever certain. No matter what happens, “Florida Man” is always in the headlines:

A Florida man fatally shot an Orlando Burger King worker Saturday night after his friend’s drive-thru order took too long to complete, according to a report.
Kelvis Rodriguez-Tormes, 37, is accused of gunning down Desmond Joshua, 22, in the parking lot of the fast-food restaurant on East Colonial Drive about 7:30 p.m., according to the Orange County Sheriff’s Office.
“You got two seconds before I shoot you,” Rodriguez-Tormes told the victim, who had only been recently hired, before pulling the trigger, WKMG reported, citing deputies.
Rodriguez-Tormes had earlier stormed to the Burger King at the behest of a woman who made a scene over a long wait time at the drive-thru.
The unidentified woman was refunded $40 and told to leave after she got out of her car and screamed she was going to get “her man” to come to the eatery, according to an arrest record.
She drove away, but soon returned with Rodriguez-Tormes, who targeted Joshua, demanding the employee fight him.
Rodriguez-Tormes placed Joshua in a headlock before a witness separated the two, records show.
But moments later, Rodriguez-Tormes returned from his truck with a gun and shot Joshua, police said.
The employee was taken to an area hospital and pronounced dead.
Rodriguez-Tormes was charged with murder, destruction of evidence and weapons possession.

The victim was black, but because the killer is Hispanic, nobody is calling this a “hate crime” or planning a protest march, so it’s just one more sad headline in the long, tragic history of Florida Man.





 

Democratic Voters in Florida

Basically, it was a Joe Biden rally in Tampa:

The Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office is hoping you can help them identify hundreds of looters who broke into a Walmart store and [stole] more than $100,000 worth in merchandise.
According to HCSO, it was just after 9 p.m. on Saturday, May 30 when a crowd gathered in front of the Walmart Supercenter on East Fletcher Avenue.
The store was closed due to the police brutality protests occurring outside the University Mall, but people wielding blunt objects like hammers broke the glass entrance doors and stormed into the store.
Footage released by the sheriff’s office shows wave after wave of looters streaming through the front door — past the social-distancing reminders — and ransacking the store’s electronics section, hauling away computers, TVs, and more.
After reviewing the video, detectives believe somewhere around 200 people participated. An estimated $116,000 in merchandise and damages was reported.

 

The way to solve this case is by a process of elimination:. Assign deputies to go through the vote registration lists, subtract all the Republicans from the list and, somewhere among the names of the registered Democrats, you’ll find your 200 looters. Not that I would ever engage in any kind of profiling, you understand, but one look at that video, and I immediately recognized those people as Joe Biden voters. Go get ’em.