Herman Cain was not someone I gave high marks to during the debate but he “won” the Frank Luntz focus group that came on immediately after the debate. Cain would consistently answer his question giving a bullet-point response, arguing that you need to “identify the problem” before solving “the problem.” For whatever reason, this seemed to appeal to the focus group.
Yeah: Pragmatism is so . . . impractical.
Kristula-Green’s “conventional wisdom” about the Greenville debate was expressed by Ben Smith of Politico, who dismissed the other participants as “second- and third-tier candidates” and said Pawlenty was “widely viewed as the only candidate in Thursday night’s Fox News debate with any real chance of becoming the nominee of his party or President of the United States.”
“Widely viewed” is one of those phrases like “many observers” by which reporters embed conventional-wisdom opinions into their stories as if they were talking about established facts. In campaign coverage, this is a way of privileging the punditry over actual voters.
Tim Pawlenty is widely viewed as lame and boring, which is why many observers believe that Obama would mop the floor with him if the Minnesota governor actually got the Republican nomination.
Don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining, sources say.
CBS News was also stunned by Cain’s focus-group win. I don’t know why this seems so shocking to some people. As Cain’s spokeswoman Ellen Carmichael has been saying for weeks, “When people meet Herman, they like Herman.”
This is something the pundits might notice if they actually paid attention. I remember last year in New Orleans at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, when Cain’s speech was over, he had the darnedest time getting out of the ballroom because so many well-wishers wanted a chance to shake his hand and talk to him. And that happens at every gathering of Republicans he attends. He’s a likeable guy, very down-to-earth and approachable, and people relate to that.
UPDATE — MIDNIGHT: Just got off the phone with Mr. Cain. “At least a few people know who I am now,” he said, laughing. I asked him if he thought his strong performance had repudiated the pundits who had dismissed him as a “second-tier” candidate.
“It was a wake-up call to the rest of the candidates, and all the political pundits, that this guy’s for real, because the American people immediately — from the focus group, as well as from the reaction here — are now saying, ‘We need to take a look at this guy,’ ” he said. “I don’t see it as a breakthrough victory. I see it as an awakening, which makes me feel very, very good that people are awakened now to the possibility of taking a closer look.”
Our interview had to be cut short, as Mr. Cain explained: “I’ve got some more media that are waiting outside . . . Right now, I’ve got to take care of the barbarians at the door.”
10:32 p.m. ET: WOW! Frank Luntz’s focus group just found: HERMAN CAIN WON!
Luntz says he has never seen anything like this: A previously unknown candidate winning over a focus group the way Cain did in South Carolina.
I predict Cain will not only be recognized as the winner of tomorrows debate he’ll have taken a crucial step in improving his national name recognition along with putting an end to this ridiculous notion that he’s somehow a second tier candidate!
Isn’t it time you joined the online grassroots army at Citizens for Cain?
* * * PREVIOUSLY * * *
10:30 p.m. ET: Now closing statements. Tim Pawlenty and Gary Johnson stand out by remembering to plug their Web sites.
I’ll be back to round up the reactions and coverage.
10:27 p.m. ET: Gary Johnson asked if he had a reality show like Trump, what it would be. Doesn’t say Cheech and Chong.
10:24 p.m. ET: Perhaps Ron Paul’s joke about Michelle Bachmann got a bigger laugh.
10:23 p.m. ET: Herman Cain gets the biggest laugh of the night with a joke about Mitt Romney.
10:21 p.m. ET: Final commercial break. Next: Let’s all badmouth Newt, Mitt and Sarah!
10:16 p.m. ET: We’re now in “lightning round” part of the debate — 30 seconds for answers. Pawlenty runs overtime in his first answer.
10:14 p.m. ET: Chris Wallace asks Herman Cain, “Why do you think you have any chance?” Describes himself as a problem-solver.
10:13 p.m. ET: Gary Johnson asked about drugs. Does not admit he toked up before the debate.
10:11 p.m. ET: Ron Paul sticks hard to the libertarian position on First Amendment. Chris Wallace asks if he is suggesting “heroin and prostitution are an exercise of liberty.” Paul refuses to back down. Applause from Paulbots.
10:06 p.m. ET: Groan from audience over Pawlenty’s “green energy”/cap-and-trade ideas.
10:04 p.m. ET: Tim Pawlenty defends teaching of “intelligent design” theory. Then starts talking jobs and unions. Attempting to bore audience into stupor.
10:02 p.m. ET: On Boeing vs. NRLB, Herman Cain: “What the National Labor Relations Board did . . . is outrageous.” Applause.
10:00 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum defends staunch pro-life position in terms of Declaration of Independence. Applause.
9:59 p.m. ET: Tim Pawlenty on stem-cell research, emphasizes adult stem-cells. Defends Bush position. Long story short: “If you want a third term for GW Bush, vote Pawlenty.”
9:57 p.m. ET: Some boos for Gary Johnson’s moderate pro-choice stance.
9:56 p.m. ET: Herman Cain hits Obama for not defending DOMA.
9:54 p.m. ET: Ron Paul on gay marriage: Totally libertarian. Says that DOMA defends the rights of states.
9:50 p.m. ET: Gary Johnson rejects Trump call for protective tariffs. Some things are so obvious, even a dopehead can understand.
9:49 p.m. ET: Ron Paul talking Israel — big applause.
9:46 p.m. ET: Santorum says we need to “engage the Pakistanis,” invokes Bush “with us or against us” mantra. Wants to deliver an ultimatum to Pakistani on cutting off foreign aid.
9:45 p.m. ET: Tim Pawlenty wants to kill Moammar Qaddafi. Perhaps he could bore Qaddafi to death.
9:44 p.m. ET: Herman Cain criticizes Obama foreign policy as “unclear” and inconsistent.
9:42 p.m. ET: Gary Johnson outlines his plan for what is, in effect, a guest-worker amnesty.
9:40 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum invokes his Italian father in defense of English-only law.
9:39 p.m. ET: Herman Cain on immigration: Defends Arizona law. Lays out his 4-point plan for immigration, including “empowering states” to enforce laws. Applause.
9:38 p.m. ET: Now, Gary Johnson is asked to address Democrats’ “MediScare” tactics. Warns of impending federal bankruptcy.
9:35 p.m. ET: Gary Johnson just interrupted: “What about me?” It’s the drugs talking.
9:34 p.m. ET: Questioned by Chris Wallace, Herman Cain defends his support for Fair Tax: “With all due respect . . . your experts are dead wrong.”
9:32 p.m. ET: Ron Paul justifying his “Dr. No” record of opposing . . . well, everything. Wild cheers from Paulbots in audience.
9:30 p.m. ET: Santorum on debt limit and ObamaCare: “We are in a criticial time for our country.” Describes ObamaCare as a threat to American liberty. Stopping it is “the most important issue.”
9:26 p.m. ET: Getting ready for a commercial break.
9:24 p.m. ET: Santorum justifies his vote for Medicare prescription drug bill.
9:23 p.m. ET: Tim Pawlenty says he’s “not going to pick on” Mitt Romney, who “isn’t here to defend himself.” Hey, who’s fault is that, huh?
9:22 p.m. ET: Applause for Herman Cain who calls for “serious” energy policy.
9:20 p.m. ET: Tim Pawlenty gets applause for calling Obama policy “preposterous.”
9:18 p.m. ET: Gary Johnson calls for abolition of corporate income tax.
9:16 p.m. ET: Herman Cain name-checks Benjamin Netanhayu, gets applause for tough stance against terrorism.
9:15 p.m. ET: Applause for Pawlenty when he says first job of federal government is to protect American citizens.
9:13 p.m. ET: Ron Paul criticizes “secret prisons” for terrorist detainees.
9:12 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum: “There are many in the Muslim world” who want peace and modernity.
9:10 p.m. ET: Is Gary Johnson high? Just askin’ . . .
9:09 p.m. ET: Herman Cain says there’s no exit strategy in Afghanistan; would rely on advice of commanders.
9:05 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum gives Obama no credit, says on “strategic” questions, Obama “has gotten it wrong every time.”
9:04 p.m. ET: Show of hands: Herman Cain is the only candidate to oppose releasing death photo of Osama bin Laden.
9:03 p.m. ET: Tim Pawlenty gets the first question. Audience struggles to stay awake during his answer.
Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, told NRO he’s trying to focus on being “Happy Herman” to keep himself in the right frame of mind for the debate.
“If you go into an event like this with a positive attitude, you will end up with a positive result,” he said.
The field for tonight’s event, which will be aired by Fox News, includes Santorum and Cain, along with former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, and Rep. Ron Paul (R., Texas). Many pundits have described Pawlenty as the top contender among the five.
But Cain takes exception to being labeled as a second-tier candidate and said he doesn’t think his lack of political experience will hurt him.
“You’re going to see in Herman Cain a real leader — someone who possesses real leadership ability and not just positionship,” he said. “There’s a big difference between leadership and positionship, and I think people are going to see that.”
Cain said Pres. Barack Obama’s failure to lead on positive economic reform has provided an opening for a strong GOP candidate. “Oh, he is very vulnerable. He’s going to have to do more than kill one terrorist to pull this out,” Cain said. “One good decision doth not a presidency make.”
The CNN poll shows “no frontrunner” in the GOP 2012 field, so it’s still wide open. I had hoped to travel to Greenville and cover tonight’s debate in person, but haven’t yet recovered from pneumonia, so I’ll have to settle for watching it on TV.
The energy sector led U.S. stocks lower Thursday as crude-oil prices plunged and jobs data disappointed, hurting expectations for the government’s upcoming employment report.
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index shed 12.22, or 0.91%, to 1335.10, marking the measure’s fourth consecutive drop. It represents the first time the S&P 500 has been down for the first four days of a month since October 2008.
The tumble in crude oil came as investors rushed to the safety of the dollar after data showed new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly surged last week to the highest level since August. The report lowered expectations for the government’s report on April employment due Friday.
“There’s a lot of different things that are hitting all at the same time,” said Michael Shea, managing partner at Direct Access Partners. “The dollar is stronger versus the euro, and crude is just getting pounded.”
The phrase “investors rushed to the safety of the dollar” can best be translated: They decided to cash out.
It’s like when a gambler loses a hand of blackjack, looks at his remaining stack of chips and decides it’s time to head for the cashier’s window.
The price of silver, which reached an all-time high of $49.51 an ounce last week, has fallen by 23 percent– “a nearly unprecedented sell-off,” as Reuters calls it — after the CME Group sharply increased its margin requirements. In other words, credit is tightening and speculators now have to put up more cash to buy silver, and this has let the air out of the bubble. Gold has also fallen from its record highs, down to $1,488.50 an ounce, but the decline has been smaller than silver.
Insofar as there is any really good news, it’s that the price of crude oil declined sharply – except that’s bad news, too: Investors anticipate declining demand for oil because they expect an economic downturn. Which brings us to my favorite bad-news headline of the day:
Bad news is good news, because the one thing that could fix the economy is for Obama to be defeated in 2012, and the more “undeniable” the evidence that Obamanomics has failed, the more likely it is he’ll be defeated.
UPDATE: A nice nap. Thanks to Betty in New Jersey, Mary Rose in Ohio, James in South Plainfield, Mitzi in Dallas, and Rebecca in Indiana for hitting the tip jar.
Ace has a Ace has a Donald Rumsfeld post: “You Know, When You Discover An ‘Intelligence Jackpot,’ It’s Probably Best Not To Tell People You’ve Discovered an Intelligence Jackpot.”
This is a crucial point that has come home to me while doing various things here in the graveyard of empires:
Civil law is chess; war, poker.
While supporting and defending the right of the Left to be rubes, study rube-ology, and invite others to cower beneath their rube-ric, rubes must be kept clear of the levers of power. Period.
Pardon the similar post to what Stacy just published, but all this panties-abunch noise in the dextrosphere is false. Bin Laden, while diabolical, is now dead. All of this fretting over the internals of the decision making of the operation is bollocks. Time spent fretting this is time unspent on the EPA, DOJ, TSA, &c. Do not let jubilation over the victory distract from the real task of saving the country.
The decision not to release photos of the operation is about the least important thing on the public plate right now. Precisely what value would such images add? Hint: if the value is purely emotional, and more than two minutes are wasted on the topic, then the condescending attitude of the Left toward the American people has been justified. Maybe I’ve just seen enough kill pics lately, but this strikes me as a completely stupid distractor of an issue. Ask, and if the answer is no, return to more productive lines of inquiry.
The most interesting tidbit yet is this bit from Insty:
“What would you say if someone credible told you that Osama Bin Laden is providing valuable information during his interrogation this week? He knows the world believes he is dead, and that there is no hope of rescue. Brilliant strategy by US to create a Schroedinger terrorist mastermind who is both dead and alive at the same time, as long as the box stays closed.”
I would say that if you really want to know, you have to get an intel job and dedicate yourself to dealing with this sort of thing. The bad news is that you have a Schroedinger tongue at that point: it only exists if you keep your mouth shut.
All this super-spooky stuff is like Rule 5: appreciate it a little bit as a 2D jpeg on a screen, and enjoy life.
Letting yourself be distracted by a Rule 5 cutie in real life, to the detriment of a real relationship, is unwise. Repeat after me: leave the Ueber-SEAL ninja stuff to the handful of adrenalin junkies that do it full time.
Smitty out!
Today we launch a great new chapter for Patch.com, AOL’s national network of hyperlocal sites currently covering community life in over 800 towns across America. . . .
Patch will provide an unprecedented infrastructure for citizen engagement in time for the 2012 presidential election, with a focus on community and local solutions. . . . As is the case on HuffPost, Patch bloggers will be free to post their views on a range of subjects — from politics to entertainment to local issues. These features will allow Patch readers to instantly put a finger on the pulse of their community.
