Nate Silver: ‘Hey, You Know, Maybe We Should Take Herman Cain Seriously’

The polling savant of the New York Times takes a look at the recent Gallup numbers and is intrigued:

I would not suggest that Mr. Cain is one of the leaders. But in a field where the three insider favorites to win the race — Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Jon Huntsman — collectively poll at just 25 percent, and where some Republicans seem to be pining for an outsider (perhaps even outside-the-box) choice, he’s the freshest face.

Silver produces this very interesting graphic, illustrating the relative intensity of Cain’s support:

Which is impressive, any way you look at it. And as Caroline May reports, Democrats are now paying attention:

While conservative commentators Charles Krauthammer and Karl Rove might not see Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain as viable, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is keeping an eye on the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO.
While the DNC has been barraging media and supporters with alerts criticizing Republican presidential hopefuls Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, and Mitt Romney’s media appearances, Cain has largely been out of the mix. Last week, the DNC sent out more than 25 alerts attacking the aforementioned GOP frontrunners, not one mentioned Cain.
[Thursday], however, the committee ramped up its focus on Cain, issuing a “Rapid Response” attack against his morning “Fox and Friends” appearance, during which Cain praised the Paul Ryan budget.

What does this mean? Da Tech Guy thinks media liberals are now promoting Cain as a surreptitious way to submarine Sarah Palin.

That theory may attribute too much foresight and subtlety to the JournoList crowd. My own theory — insofar as any theory is needed to justify the overdue attention Cain is now getting — would be that political reporters are bored with the ho-hum GOP primary field and are looking for something new and exciting to write about. However you explain it, Herman Cain’s campaign has definitely gathered momentum in the past three weeks, whereas Tim Pawlenty . . . eh, not so much.

Please Remind Me: Why Was It So Important to Elect Scott Brown?

You guys remember how fired up conservatives were in January 2010, right? I’ve been scratching my head lately:

Senate Democrats forced a vote Wednesday on the controversial fiscal plan drafted by House Budget chief Paul Ryan, splitting the Republican caucus . . .
Moderate Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine were joined by Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska in breaking with Republican leaders to oppose the Ryan plan.
Snowe and Brown are up for re-election in 2012.
Tea Party-backed Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky also voted against the budget, saying its proposed spending cuts are not deep enough.
All Senate Democrats voted no.
The final tally was 40-57. Fifty-one yeas would have been necessary to move the plan forward.

Da Tech Guy wonders if Brown thinks he can win re-election by appeasing liberals.

UPDATE: More news from Michael O’Brian at The Hill. Now a thread at Memeorandum.

Media Psy-Ops in NY-26

In my very first post about the NY-26 special election (May 10), I warned:

NY-26 is a winnable district, and a GOP defeat would be interpreted by the media (however falsely) as a repudiation of the conservative agenda.

And on May 17, I warned that a Democrat victory “will be headlined as evidence that the Paul Ryan budget plan is a political liability for Republicans.” You can see those prophecies fulfilled in this morning’s headlines at Memeorandum:

Democrat Wins G.O.P. Seat;
Rebuke Seen to Medicare Plan
 

Six Months After Midterm Disaster,
Hopeful Signs for Democrats
 

Democrat Kathy Hochul Wins Upset In NY-26,
Medicare Vote Key To Victory

Readers should be asking themselves, “Why didn’t I hear any warnings about NY-26 on talk radio or Fox News? Why have MSNBC and other liberal media been banging the drums about this special election for weeks, while most conservative media ignored it?” I don’t have any answers to those questions, but I think it’s important to ask.

Da Tech Guy contrasts the media spin on NY-26 with their spin on last year’s Hawaii special election. Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) are attempting to turn perception into reality, by engaging in what Da Tech Guy accurately describes as “psy-ops.”

‘That’s Not a Poll That’s Psy-Ops!’

So says Da Tech Guy about an Associated Press poll that surveyed nearly twice as many Democrats (35%) as Republicans (18%). You will perhaps not be surprised that this poll shows Obama with a 63% approval rating.

Speaking of “psy-ops” — psychological warfare — let me explain something: Nothing so sways the independent voter as bandwagon psychology.

Lacking any clear partisan or ideological commitment, the independent voters is likely to support whichever candidate his friends and neighbors support. This is why yard signs and bumper stickers make a difference in campaigns. Believe it or not, some voters may base their vote on whichever candidate has the most yard signs in his neighborhood.

Furthermore, independent voters like to vote for the winner. Polls showing Obama ahead will, of course, encourage Democrats and discourage Republicans. More importantly, however, such polls will sway independents toward Obama.

It is always a mistake to think of independent voters as moderates or “centrists.” It is more helpful to think of them as “low-information voters” who don’t pay much attention to politics, and whose judgments are influenced more by superficial impressions of candidates than by deeply held political beliefs.

Holy Freaking Crap: Time Magazine’s GOP 2012 Chart Omits Herman Cain!

Da Tech Guy points out that Time magazine’s resident political “expert” Mark Halperin has a chart giving odds on candidates for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, a chart that completely omits the hands-down winner of the first debate in South Carolina.

Halperin also omits Rick Santorum and gives thousand-to-one odds against Michelle Bachmann — and Bachmann, whatever the odds, is (a) much beloved by Tea Party activists, (b) a Midwesterner, which certainly can’t hurt in Iowa, and (c) about thirty-zillion times more likely to win the nomination than Barack Obama’s Favorite Republican™ Jon Huntsman, whom Halperin rates at 20-to-1.

S.P. Gordon at Cain’s Corner asks a relevant question:

If Herman Cain is such a long shot for the election, why are ALL the major broadcast media running in fear from him?

Don’t outsource your political thinking to a bunch of know-it-all pundits. To quote Da Tech Guy’s favorite Yankee general: “Ride right through them, They’re demoralized as hell!”

UPDATE: Linked by Little Miss Attila and If You Seek Peace — thanks! — and welcome, Instapundit readers!


Eating Crow About Sprinklerman

by Smitty

Indeed, Boehner’s great big little cuts seem hardly a cause for capillary bleeding. The anti-Boehner chorus was a tad too shrill, in my estimate. Then again, I had relatively low expectations for the 112th Congress.

You have to understand that our Ruling Class overlords still expect Americans to balk at the pain of any real political chemotherapy. Hence Boehner’s shenanigans. Still, one can’t talk trash at this level without being willing to eat crow:

Yummy!

Da Tech Guy opines:

If Boehner is throwing away the trust of the activists who got him that chair then the GOP will deserve all that they get from it.

Forced to admit Riehl is spot on here:

The GOP has been reluctant to go after Obama as hard as he does them all the way back to 2008. Short of Sarah Palin being elected as a Representative from Alaska tomorrow and then elected Speaker the day after that, I’m hard pressed to see a way for things to change given current leadership.
Part of it may have to do with race, some of it may be traditional GOP fears of losing media battles, still more of it may come from weak and shriveled old GOP hands in Washington too long, who believe business as usual is going to get done in Washington the way it always has. It isn’t.

My gut is that the GOP is timid because they know the jig is up but do not know the reliability of the Tea Parties.

Remember: Radio Feminist Fight With Little Miss Attila 10 a.m. ET Today

The three-week-old feud begun by Little Miss Attila — “oversimplified fiddle faddle”! — will get an airing today on Da Tech Guy’s radio show on WCRN 830 AM (click the link to listen live online) at 10 a.m. Eastern. Attila is boasting that she’ll put me to flight.

UPDATE: The consensus of the in-studio guests was that Attila “won” our debate — which troubles me not at all. An interesting caller from Rhode Island referenced his sisters, self-declared feminists, who despise Sarah Palin.

My point all along: Feminism is and always been a movement of the Left. Ergo, efforts to re-define feminism as mainstream will tend to empower the Left. Conservatives trying to drape Gov. Palin in the garments of “feminism” are engaged in a project that is wrong-headed, because Gov. Palin’s biography — happily married mother of five and political leader — in fact refutes feminist ideology.

UPDATE II: In conclusion:

“Those who attempt to level never equalize. In all societies some description must be uppermost. The levellers, therefore, only change and pervert the natural order of things; they load the edifice of society by setting up in the air what the solidity of the structure requires to be on the ground.”
– Edmund Burke, Reflections on the Revolution in France

UPDATE III: Well, I thought that would be the last word, but I see that Darleen Click in the comments has asked that I clarify some remarks I made in reference to women in combat.

In 1995, Newt Gingrich was widely ridiculed and condemned for saying: “If combat means living in a ditch, females have biological problems staying in a ditch for thirty days because they get infections . . .”

Gingrich went on to talk about upper-body strength and men supposedly being “biologically driven to go out and hunt giraffes” (a sort of Darwinian heredity-is-destiny argument), but what was he saying about women and infections? Where did that come from?

It turns out — and this got obscured in the furor over Gingrich’s remarks — that he was referring to actual Pentagon studies about health problems of women soldiers deployed in combat-type situations. One report on these problems was the so-called “Lady J” study which found:

“Lack of suitable bathroom facilities and sufficient privacy pose a problem for timely urination. Active duty females in the field will decrease their oral hydration to diminish the frequency of urination as well as voluntarily suppress urination as long as possible. Subsequently, these women may induce prolonged bladder distention and increase their risk of urinary infections.”

These are simply medical facts, and not some sexist ideological oppression imposed by the patriarchy (or Newt Gingrich). The Pentagon found that women had more health problems than men when deployed, which imposed additional costs for medical care and undermined combat-unit readiness (i.e., units were under-strength because troops were absent on sick leave).

Leaving aside entirely the whole “giraffe-hunting” silliness, these studies highlight a basic question: Is the U.S. military supposed to be used for the purposes of national defense, or is it a vehicle for social engineering, to provide “equal opportunity” for women to advance to positions of leadership?

If women officers are to hold command rank, they must have experience serving as leaders of combat troops. Therefore, feminists insist that the military must bend the rules (and suffer the health costs and impairment of readiness) to put women into combat units. If you are a feminist — that is to say, if equality of the sexes is the be-all, end-all of your political involvement — then you must say, “To hell with readiness, and to hell with the costs of additional medical care, make it happen!”

I am not a feminist, and oppose such a policy. It is incumbent on those who call themselves feminists to explain why the U.S. military should be twisted like a pretzel to accommodate their ideological fanaticism.

For a very informative account of issues surrounding women in the military, I recommend Stephanie Guttman’s 2000 book The Kinder, Gentler Military: How Political Correctness Affects Our Ability to Win Wars.

UPDATE IV: Facts Are Stubborn Things.

PREVIOUSLY:

U.S. Policy On Libya Explained: It Was All An Esoteric Steven Wright Reference

by Smitty

Looking at Gateway Pundit’s latest post on Libya, enlightenment struck: the whole apparent disaster is merely a reference to I Have A Pony.
Hoft: “Obama Yesterday: Gaddafi Must Go… Obama Today: Gaddafi Can Stay (Video)”
Now, quoting Wright from memory:

I have a dog named Stay. When he was a puppy, I’d say “Come here, Stay. Come here, Stay. And he’d look at me like (?). Now he just ignores me. . .and keeps typing. He’s an East German Shepherd. Very, very disciplined.”

You may all thank me for clearing that up by linking.

Da Tech Guy, as he so frequently does, captures the take from The Morning Joke. Or whatever that MSNBC thing is called.
Maybe the President is a student of Teddy Wayne’s Unpopular Proverbs.
The Lonely Conservative recalls a 2007 Bidenism on Iran that is amusing in the Libya context.
SWAC Girl:

Americans are confused. Why go into Libya as opposed to, say, Egypt or any of the other hot spots around the world? They are waiting for answers as this president continues his silence and American war planes go where they’re directed by this commander-in-chief.

FilmLadd goes full-on noir in his analysis:

No matter what mindless jingoists would have you believe, there is no such thing as a country so great and powerful that it can not be destroyed by incompetently waged war. Not even the United States. It may not be this one or the next, but like an infinite monkey with an infinite typewriter, eventually it will happen.