The Other McCain

The biggest news today? The Florida poll showing Rick Perry in a distant fourth place (!) behind Newt Gingrich (!!), while Herman Cain has surged to within 4 points of Mitt Romney in the Sunshine Evil State.

And in the unscientific (but not insignificant) Hot Air Straw Poll, it’s Herman Cain 39%, Sarah Palin 32%, Rick Perry 12%, Mitt Romney 5% (hat-tip Gary Jackson).

The Hindenburg-at-Lakehurst implosion of the once-vaunted Perry juggernaut explains two things:

1. Erick Erickson’s first baby steps toward a walk-back of Red State’s “Perry über alles” totalitarian solidarity motif; and
2. Rumors that Perry allies are planning a scorched-earth smear campaign against Herman Cain.

Remember you heard that rumor here first and, when the hit-piece on Cain comes out, remember that Perry’s supporters are behind it.

Meanwhile, Matt Lewis hears that Chris Christie’s supporters have been told to gather in Trenton for a Thursday announcement, which would match Steve Forbes saying a Christie announcement is expected within 72 hours. (Both via AOSHQ Headlines.)

Those of you who’ve been jumping from bandwagon to bandwagon — T-Paw or Bachmann or Perry — this might just be the last bandwagon leaving the 2012 GOP station. And if you like ’em large, loud and kinda Romney-like, Christie’s your man.

You might want to wait until Thursday, however, before jumping aboard the Fatty McAwesome Express, because his announcement may be “no.” He’s said “no” over and over again, and I have no idea why he’s letting himself be talked into a “maybe,” but if he says “yes,” then you can expect him to become this year’s Giuliani, sucking up lots of MSM attention and getting praise from the Peggy Noonan types. And then he’ll lose badly, but only after providing three or four months of employment for Republican campaign operatives who couldn’t get hired by Romney.

I’ve got nothing against Christie, per se. He seems affable and smart and about as conservative as any New Jersey Republican can be, but that’s not going to win him any primaries, The upside? By becoming the MSM favorite, Christie could finally push Huntsman off the debate stage, which is long overdue.

The shake-out? If Christie gets in, I expect Bachmann finally to quit, with many of her Iowa supporters going to Rick Santorum. Depending on how bad the Perry hit on Cain is — and I’m told they expect to hurt him bad — there could be a lot of flux between now and the end of the month. There are many variables in play (some people say Sarah Palin might still jump in), but by Sunday we’ll know whether or not Christie’s in the race, and by Oct. 13 or 14, we’ll have some polls to measure the impact.

The next debate is Oct. 18 in Las Vegas. We’re planning to be there and by “we,” of course, I mean me, Smitty and Wombat. He’s been doing good work; he deserves the trip; hit the freaking tip jar.

UPDATE: After about three hours sleep, I wake up, check the comments and see some of y’all going after each other with knives down there. People need to chill with the accusations of bad faith against, e.g., Pagan Temple, who’s been commenting here forever. I mean, I’m not offering to co-sign a loan for PT or anything, I just don’t think attacking him personally helps anyone’s cause.

Furthermore, the reason I tipped y’all to the rumor that an anti-Cain attack was coming — and that Perry supporters were behind it — is that I’ve seen campaigns do oppo-research dumps in the “no fingerprints” way, so that when bad stuff comes out on a candidate, you don’t know where it came from. The tip I got was both vague and specific: While I wasn’t told what they were going to hit Cain with, or where it would be published, I was told that a hit was coming, and that it was Perry’s supporters who were pushing it. Notice I said Perry’s supporters, not Perry’s campaign, because I don’t know whether there was that kind of official involvement.

And let’s face it: That “N–rhead” rock story had to come from somewhere. Your natural instinct would be to blame the Romney people for it, of course. But then I remember that many key people on Perry’s team dumped all over Newt on their way out the door of Newt’s campaign, so this could be payback for that. On the other hand, maybe this was Texas enemies of Perry getting their own revenge for whatever reason.

We should look on the bright side of all this, however: This is what’s called “vetting,” and a hyper-competitive primary where the candidates are all cutting each other to ribbons is sure to produce a battle-hardened nominee when it’s finished. If the Democrats try to bring up something ugly during the general election campaign, let’s hope it’s something that has already come out during the primnary campaign, so even the liberal media will say, “Old news!”